Discuss football with over 60,000 fans. Free Membership. Join now!

 FAQFAQ  RegisterRegister   ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

FootballsFuture.com Forum Index
FootballsFuture.com Home

2017 WR Thread
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 68, 69, 70
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    FootballsFuture.com Forum Index -> NFL Draft
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
Groink


Joined: 30 Dec 2014
Posts: 456
PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 12:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Kupp's play speed is just fine. At the Senior bowl, he was the fastest player on his team, clocked at 20.7 mph with gps. And he was beating supposedly faster corners consistently. His athleticism doesn't worry me.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Rich7sena


Joined: 12 Sep 2009
Posts: 6683
PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 12:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It seems I don't like Kupp nearly as much as this forum and the internet as a whole does. I don't think he's a special player but he's definitely a good one in the right scheme and quarterback. I don't think he plays very fast and is visibly short armed. He's quick, but not explosive out of his breaks. I also don't see a creative route runner who takes advantage of his measured quickness.

I do like his size and quickness. He's good at using his body to shield and catch. He has very good hand-eye cooridnation.

It's also worth noting that not only did he play against lesser competition, he routinely drew among their worst coverage defenders as he routinely lined up furthest inside in 4 and 5 wide receiver sets. I like him in the slot but I'd be surprised if he ever surpasses 1000 yards in the NFL. I could see him being a guy who catches a lot of touchdowns, though.

My favorite fits for him are the Saints, Chargers, Seahawks, Patriots, and Ravens.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
Posts: 67856
PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 4:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rich7sena wrote:
It seems I don't like Kupp nearly as much as this forum and the internet as a whole does. I don't think he's a special player but he's definitely a good one in the right scheme and quarterback. I don't think he plays very fast and is visibly short armed. He's quick, but not explosive out of his breaks. I also don't see a creative route runner who takes advantage of his measured quickness.

I do like his size and quickness. He's good at using his body to shield and catch. He has very good hand-eye cooridnation.


I see very much the opposite. He's a creative player who uses a variety of techniques in his releases and routes to move, freeze, and tilt defenders.

Matt Waldman does a nice job of highlighting it here (if you can ignore the weirdness at the beginning that my link will hopefully skip you by):
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-ie-KaTm-8#t=01m42s

There's a lot of subtlety and nuance in Kupp's game. I enjoy watching him and Zay Jones because both guys are such technicians. Zay is more textbook precision while Kupp is more creative.

Quote:
It's also worth noting that not only did he play against lesser competition, he routinely drew among their worst coverage defenders as he routinely lined up furthest inside in 4 and 5 wide receiver sets. I like him in the slot but I'd be surprised if he ever surpasses 1000 yards in the NFL. I could see him being a guy who catches a lot of touchdowns, though.


That would be much more meaningful if he hadn't absolutely murdered the Pac-12 every time he faced one of its teams. The guy punked Marcus Peters and Budda Baker. It's impossible to hold level of competition against him based on what he's shown against FBS teams.

Hell, he went out and dominated Senior Bowl practice week. He has nothing to prove there for me.
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
Posts: 67856
PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 4:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DraftHobbyist wrote:
If you go back and re-watch Zay Jones looking for what I'm explaining, I'm confident you'll see it. Maybe not, because sometimes people just see things differently, but I think you will. There is plenty about Zay that is raw (rounds routes, plays weak, drops balls, etc.). His Combine times are solid and I actually have in my notes from the film that he is has some athletic traits such as quickness, but I think he mitigates the benefits of some of his traits such as his ability to change direction by doing things like rounding routes. Yes, he can learn some of these things, but he has a decent amount to learn, and some of it isn't learnable IMO. I don't think he's that great in the open field to be honest.


I removed all of the irrelevant information you fixated on. I don't care about production. I care about film. This is the only real discussion of Zay Jones as a player, and there's not enough to it.

Jones is not raw. His routes aren't raw. He doesn't play weak. And he has some of the surest hands in this class.

Every WR drops passes now and again, but Jones consistently makes tough catches in traffic.

Jones is a technician as a player. His routes and releases are textbook. You can see the precision in his game. My complaint with him as he is now is that he needs to be more creative to work on tilting, moving, and freezing defenders with his routes and releases like Kupp does. Jones relies on his precision and quickness to create separation with his routes. A little more creativity will make him a dangerous player.

I also am going to note that some breaks are supposed to be rounded. How you run routes changes based on the coverage you're facing and the defender's leverage. When Jones is supposed to run a crisp route, he sinks his hips and explodes out of the break driving back to the football. He also is one of the few guys in the class who understands how to use his speed and body mechanics to properly sell his vertical stem. Not enough guys understand how to make every route look the same. Carlos Henderson is an example of a guy who tips the depth of his break because he changes speed and posture based on the depth of his break.

I am also thankful that Scottie Montgomery, ECU's new HC (whose background was as a WR Coach with the Steelers and OC for David Cutcliffe at Duke), moved Zay outside in 2016 and had him run a NFL route tree. He did him a favor in terms of making NFL evaluators' jobs easier.

Quote:
Multiple people are saying that Zay Jones is a better player than an athlete. I don't really get where this is coming from. He is in the 94.1% at his position in SPARQ. Zay Jones is a very good athlete. In fact, he's literally the 4th most athletic WR in this class according to SPARQ out of 285 ranked WR's, and he'd beat most if not all of the 13 unranked WR's as well. Do I think the Zay Jones film shows him as the 4th best WR? Not at all. I had him as something like my 14th best WR according to film alone, and few people have his tape as the 4th best WR in this class. But that's where his SPARQ numbers put him. That's why I think he's a better athlete than player, and while I see potential for upside, I see a lot of obstacles keeping him from ever reaching is full potential.


I fully get where it's coming from, his film. Zay Jones doesn't look like an elite athlete on film. The people who treat analytics like SPARQ as the gospel make me want to reject it altogether. But I won't because it has its uses. That all said, Jones's film and his SPARQ scores don't line up in some respects. Jones doesn't have the vertical speed that a 4.45 40 would make you think he does.

He accelerates quickly off the line, has nice stop/start acceleration, and great quickness for his size, but he doesn't have an extra gear to pull away on vertical routes.

He plays the game as a short to intermediate technician. When he wins deep, it's because he won with his route or won in the air. Despite his SPARQ score, Jones is a chain-moving possession WR. But he's quite adept at that due to his sure hands, textbook routes/releases, and quality football IQ.

I try not to fixate too much on the Senior Bowl, but there is a reason why Jones did well throughout the week at practices and dominated the game (should have had 3 TDs). He's a pro ready WR with outstanding hands.
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Rich7sena


Joined: 12 Sep 2009
Posts: 6683
PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 6:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

jrry32 wrote:
That would be much more meaningful if he hadn't absolutely murdered the Pac-12 every time he faced one of its teams. The guy punked Marcus Peters and Budda Baker. It's impossible to hold level of competition against him based on what he's shown against FBS teams.

Hell, he went out and dominated Senior Bowl practice week. He has nothing to prove there for me.

Vs. Washington two seasons ago? I doubt Kupp went head up against Peters because he rarely lines up outside. My contention is that he doesn't draw top defenders very often because of where he lines up. I do like that he's a pure slot and doesn't have to learn how to take advantage of space as a receiver, but he's in for a rude awakening early in his career when he faces much better athletes inside than he did in college.

He's probably more creative with his route running than I initially thought, but I still think he's going to be best in the NFL as an inside red zone threat for teams without a competent receiving tight end.

The guy I'm higher on than the mean is probably Isaiah Ford. I cooled on him after his tepid combine performance but I heated back up after going back and watching his cut-ups. He's a guy who could use to teach the receiver position. He has maybe the best double move in this class, great catch concentration, and what I like most is his ability to stack a corner behind him on under throws.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
lark25


Joined: 01 May 2014
Posts: 376
Location: Aus
PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 7:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wouldn't really worry about level of competition. He dominated at the Senior Bowl against NFL level competition and the notion that FCS (and even FBS) teams didn't specifically game plan for him is ridiculous.

On Peters:
2 receptions on 2 targets for 54 yards and two touchdowns against Marcus Peters. Also said Peters was the best he faced "I really think Peters. He was an exceptional talent when he was at UW"

Basically he put up videogame numbers against Pac12 defenses with several above average NFL players. Possibly the best hands and one of the best possession receivers in the draft.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
Posts: 67856
PostPosted: Thu Apr 13, 2017 11:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rich7sena wrote:
jrry32 wrote:
That would be much more meaningful if he hadn't absolutely murdered the Pac-12 every time he faced one of its teams. The guy punked Marcus Peters and Budda Baker. It's impossible to hold level of competition against him based on what he's shown against FBS teams.

Hell, he went out and dominated Senior Bowl practice week. He has nothing to prove there for me.

Vs. Washington two seasons ago? I doubt Kupp went head up against Peters because he rarely lines up outside. My contention is that he doesn't draw top defenders very often because of where he lines up. I do like that he's a pure slot and doesn't have to learn how to take advantage of space as a receiver, but he's in for a rude awakening early in his career when he faces much better athletes inside than he did in college.


Kupp beat Peters for a long TD in man coverage and a short TD when Peters was in zone coverage. Kupp also beat Budda Baker for a long TD when he was in man coverage.

Quote:
He's probably more creative with his route running than I initially thought, but I still think he's going to be best in the NFL as an inside red zone threat for teams without a competent receiving tight end.

The guy I'm higher on than the mean is probably Isaiah Ford. I cooled on him after his tepid combine performance but I heated back up after going back and watching his cut-ups. He's a guy who could use to teach the receiver position. He has maybe the best double move in this class, great catch concentration, and what I like most is his ability to stack a corner behind him on under throws.


Ford won't separate in the NFL. He got by in college by getting physical with smaller CBs. He's not going to be able to do that in the NFL. He catches the ball well, but he doesn't have the skill-set to get open consistently in the NFL.

Kupp, on the other hand, has the quickness, mental acuity, and technical skill to be a highly productive WR at the next level.

Frankly, I don't agree that he's a guy who you could use to teach the WR position. Zay Jones and Cooper Kupp are far better technicians. JMO.
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
Posts: 67856
PostPosted: Fri Apr 14, 2017 12:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

lark25 wrote:
I wouldn't really worry about level of competition. He dominated at the Senior Bowl against NFL level competition and the notion that FCS (and even FBS) teams didn't specifically game plan for him is ridiculous.

On Peters:
2 receptions on 2 targets for 54 yards and two touchdowns against Marcus Peters. Also said Peters was the best he faced "I really think Peters. He was an exceptional talent when he was at UW"

Basically he put up videogame numbers against Pac12 defenses with several above average NFL players. Possibly the best hands and one of the best possession receivers in the draft.


Yup. If you add in Budda Baker and Kevin King, it grows to something like 4 catches for 100 yards and three TDs.

I also recall him beating Steven Nelson and Ryan Murphy for TDs in the game against Oregon State. Nelson was a third round pick, and Murphy was a seventh round pick.

And then you have the film of him murdering Washington State and Oregon...
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
Posts: 67856
PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 7:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

As I said previously, Cooper Kupp is my #1 WR on Day 2. I figure I'll explain why by highlighting why I prefer him to the other guys I like early on Day 2 at WR. Keep in mind that this breakdown is with the Rams in mind.

Why not Chris Godwin?
There are three reasons why I prefer Kupp to Chris Godwin:
1. Godwin's route running
Godwin is a weird sort because when I criticize route running, I'm usually criticizing technical aspects of it. Instead, my complaints with Godwin's route running are that his route speed is inconsistent, he lacks urgency in his vertical stems, and he runs lackadaisical routes when he's not a primary target. Godwin's breaks are crisp. His technical skill is sound (beyond the issues I highlighted). He has the potential to be a really good route runner. The problem is that he too often appears to be a gear or two too slow on his vertical stems. It looks almost like he's jogging.
2. Godwin's explosiveness
Godwin doesn't seem to have that explosive burst off the LOS to get him easy wins vertically. He appears to be more of a build-up speed type guy. He can separate as a route runner because of his crisp cuts, but he too often stays covered on deep routes because he just doesn't explode off the LOS. His ability to win in the air does him big favors here, but his lack of explosive burst will cause him problems in the NFL if he can't win in the air like he did in college.
3. Godwin vs. Stribling
This is sort of ancillary point from Point #2. This game stuck in my mind because Stribling is a big CB who will play on Sundays (likely 5th round pick). Godwin went 0 for 3 in contested catch situations against him. How will Godwin fare against big NFL CBs? He'll probably do just fine, but it's a minor concern.

Why not Juju Smith?
This one is a lot quicker. There's one reason why:
1. Juju's hands
Juju's hands aren't bad, but they're fairly average. He's not a dominant player in the air or at the catch point. If he had hands like Godwin or Kupp, I'd be pounding the table to get him at #37. He's a twitchier guy than you expect a rocked up 6'1" 215 pound WR to be. He's very strong and physical. He uses that size and strength to create separation. However, his lack of elite physical attributes means that he'll likely be making a good chunk of his catches in traffic or contested catch situations. As a player who isn't anything special in those situations, I'm just not sure he'll be a dominant WR on Sundays. I think he's more of a good #2 guy.

Why not Zay Jones?
Again, this one is quicker because there's only one reason why:
1. Cooper Kupp is better than him at his own game
Despite Zay's measurables, he doesn't really have that extra gear to separate vertically. You see his speed in his acceleration off the line and out of his cuts. He's a quick guy and a polished route runner. I used him as an example of a guy like Robert Woods who makes all of his routes look the same because his posture and route speed are consistent. He sells his vertical stems with authority. He usually makes crisp cuts. He's a natural hands catcher who made a living catching the ball in traffic. Basically, like Kupp, he's a guy who is going to mainly work the short to intermediate ranges with his route running and soft hands. Problem is that Kupp is a better route runner because he's a more creative route runner. Zay is a very precise route runner, but he hasn't developed the nuances of his game to the same extent that Kupp has. Both guys have stellar hands. I'd give Kupp the slight edge because Zay has more concentration drops.

Again, I will make clear that I like all three guys. I want all three guys. These are just the reasons why I prefer Cooper Kupp to the other three.
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
Posts: 67856
PostPosted: Tue Apr 18, 2017 9:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

My Top 5 WRs on Day 2 are:
1. Cooper Kupp
2. Zay Jones
3. Chris Godwin
4. Juju Smith
5. Josh Reynolds
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Jeezla


Joined: 03 Mar 2008
Posts: 18953
Location: 805
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 8:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Where does Christian McCaffrey rank purely as a WR? Top 10? Top 5?
_________________

Draft: OJH, C Davis, J Mixon, T Basham, S Jones, H Wilson, G Kittle, T Kpass, B Brown #20
Fly Eagles Fly
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Techbert


Joined: 24 Apr 2014
Posts: 912
Location: Orion Spur
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm sure no one cares, but I have Zay over Cooper. Juju is ahead or behind Zay depending on who else is on your team.

I like Cooper, though. I just expect to get him on Day 3.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Techbert


Joined: 24 Apr 2014
Posts: 912
Location: Orion Spur
PostPosted: Thu Apr 20, 2017 10:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jeezla wrote:
Where does Christian McCaffrey rank purely as a WR? Top 10? Top 5?


Top 10, but you can't ignore his return and running dimension, even if he never lined up in the backfield before. I think his lack of WR experience and size is what keeps him out of the Top 5.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
Posts: 67856
PostPosted: Fri Apr 21, 2017 4:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Techbert wrote:
I'm sure no one cares, but I have Zay over Cooper. Juju is ahead or behind Zay depending on who else is on your team.

I like Cooper, though. I just expect to get him on Day 3.


I can understand why someone has Zay over Kupp, but I prefer Coop. They have similar games, but Kupp does it better.

I don't see you getting Kupp on Day 3. I think he's gone by pick #75 at the latest. Could see him going in the top 50.
_________________
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Broncofan


Joined: 02 Dec 2013
Posts: 2988
PostPosted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 10:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Didn't realize the GB pick poll closed, so to put it somewhere where it can generate discussion, here's my post there on John Ross and his injury risk.

_____________________
(in response to why it's being mentioned over again when ppl know about the surgeries as he gets discussed in the late 20's of Rd 1 as a pick there...)

Well, the fact that Ross has needed not just ACL surgery on 1 knee but meniscus then microfracture surgery on the other knee is in fact worth repeating. Even if it's in the media and everyone knows about them. Why? Well, it's because the risk, while somewhat unknown, is a lot bigger than people realize, even NFL teams. Don't believe me? Well, let me explain...

1) ACL injury rates for all players are not created equal - if you are a WR, there's a much higher chance you don't come back to play, or you play at a lower level. There's an excellent new study that looks at the 2013-15 period that reveals this, published this past fall.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/27826598 - 92 NFL ACL tears from 2013-15, then followed up to see if they returned (not to level of play as before, but just returned).

Now, 92 guys isn't a lot, but it's actually the most #'s studied before, so there's a chance there's still some SSS flukiness - but it's everyone in recent history who has enough follow up to assess return, and 19 were NFL WR's, also more than any other study, and these guys fixed in the new era of ACL repair. So it's definitely new info I doubt many teams are aware of in talent evaluation so far. And what it showed - QB return at 100 percent (small sample), but RB/WR return at a much lower rate (13/19).

Now Ross has returned to play, so you say, why worry? Well, the risk of re-injury over the next 2 years is about 20-30% in athletes. And the reason why guys don't return is because physiologically, most athletes only regain 80% of their function. If you're elite, like AP, you still are OK. If you are in a position where ACL function isn't needed to be 100 percent, like pocket QB, or even a lineman, it's OK to be at 80 percent. But RB/WR it's crucial (pun intended). Jordy is back but look carefully and we see his production lining up on the outside isn't what it was pre-injury (still a nightmare in the slot but that used to be Cobb more than Nelson). And before you point to Ross' 4.2 speed as a sign everything is fine now - that's not in question. Straight line dashes also aren't not going to stress his ACL as much as repetitive wear and tear and value stress (as most ACL injuries are non-contact).

2) Meniscus & microfracture surgery has its own risk

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/25573391 - 52 nfl players, again small but larger than any other study. A 48 percent return to play following microfracture.

Again, ppl might say "Ross returned" - but here's the rub - of those that returned, their career was 3 years shorter than their peers who didn't have the injury, and on average, they also played 3 fewer games a year in subsequent seasons played. THAT is a major issue.


3) His size and 3 major surgeries in his NCAA career by their nature alone increase risk of re-injury, and the fact wear and tear builds up.

This seems self-evident, but the fact teams consider Ross indicates they are minimizing the risk.


4) The info with #1 & #2 are quite recent - you may think 2015 & October 2016 is plenty of time for all teams to know of these studies, but given how busy the surgeons are with operations & athlete assessments, reviewing the state of analytics is not a slam-dunk for many, if not most sports surgeons. Plus, it's prone to the bias "that doesn't apply to MY patients". Which is a dangerous flaw, but it's definitely human nature.

Maybe some of the posters who still take Ross late Rd 1 knew all of that, but the fact that Ross is being talked about in Rd 1 alone suggests that many teams haven't done the analytic risk, especially given that his multiple injuries only compounds the risks above. One of those problems by itself (ACL) is concerning but Ross has returned already. But the 3 surgeries and the future risk they carry is much more worrisome cumulatively - and there's a real chance it's just a sign he's a guy who can't stay healthy for long playing at his speed - what he does isn't normal - like MLB pitchers who throw 95MPH have a higher injury rate the last decade than baseline. And that's before we get to his size profile and what it means to his injury risk, given that he's needed surgery 3x in a slower, smaller sized peer pool in NCAA before he gets to the NFL. Add it all up, it's mind boggling for any team to spend their first pick on a guy for a 5-year deal. The risk is insanely high, as Calhoun alluded to.

If ppl wanted a more complex reasoning for why these injuries need to be repeated, there's our most recent info. If you thought Ross was a slam dunk Rd 1 pick, maybe your opinions will change with this info. Mine certainly did. Man that data is eye opening. Like I said before - not simply a smoke detector goingoff but a 5-alarm call to the Fire Department. 🔥
_________________
steelpanther wrote:
This is like playing checkers with a pigeon. No matter how well you play, sooner or later the pigeon is going to crap on the board, then puff his chest out and strut around like he won something.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   

Post new topic   Reply to topic    FootballsFuture.com Forum Index -> NFL Draft All times are GMT - 4 Hours
Goto page Previous  1, 2, 3 ... 68, 69, 70
Page 70 of 70

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum




Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group