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Best way to utilize 6th & 7th round picks?
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11sanchez11


Joined: 08 Feb 2010
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Location: Tucson, AZ
PostPosted: Mon Apr 11, 2016 7:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

CWood21 wrote:
CalhounLambeau wrote:
Exactly. 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th. You just do your thing. Nothing different about late-round picks.


Do you truly believe that teams have 256 players with draftable grades?
No, I do think teams have wildly different boards that easily account for over 256 players tho. I remember Keim saying they had a bunch of players left after the draft on their 120 board.
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MemphisEagles


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 11, 2016 8:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

11sanchez11 wrote:
CWood21 wrote:
CalhounLambeau wrote:
Exactly. 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th. You just do your thing. Nothing different about late-round picks.


Do you truly believe that teams have 256 players with draftable grades?
No, I do think teams have wildly different boards that easily account for over 256 players tho. I remember Keim saying they had a bunch of players left after the draft on their 120 board.


This
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NormSizedMidget


Joined: 28 Mar 2011
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 11, 2016 8:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

IDOG_det wrote:
CWood21 wrote:
CalhounLambeau wrote:
Exactly. 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th. You just do your thing. Nothing different about late-round picks.


Do you truly believe that teams have 256 players with draftable grades?
They don't need to. Players that they won't view as draftable will get picked anyway, so they will likely still have guys in that top 150 still there at the end of the draft


Exactly. Didn't a MIA board leak ages ago (I know Dallas did once too not as long ago) and it had like 90 guys total. Kind of split where they thought they would all go and some were still around after the draft/towards the end.

It's not like if you have 150 guys at pick 151 you go, oh crap, now what do we do. Ya probably got a dozen left at 255.

Was that in a Ravens thing the other day? The 150 draftable, I swear I read that. Now I've seen "teams only have 150 draftable prospects" like 10 times between here and /r/ and a couple other sites :laugh2:
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tannenballs


Joined: 25 Sep 2014
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2016 1:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

After reading through a bunch of the quality posts in this thread, and digging into the subject more and doing some research of my own, this is what seems to be the most successful plan.

Step 1. Trade for Undervalued Veteran Starter

Examples: Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall, Martellus Bennett, Ryan Clady

Try to acquire a proven veteran starter for a day 3 pick every year. Every round if you can.

Step 2. Trade your current day 3 pick for a pick in a better round next year

Examples: Bill Belichick trade history

Trade a 5th for a 4th, a 6th for a 5th, etc.

Step 3. Draft talented player falling for injury/character

Examples: Jay Ajayi, Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, La'el Collins, Vontaze Burfict, Aaron Lynch

Step 4. Draft elite measureable player with enough special teams ability to make your team

Example: Jeff Janis

Step 5. Starting Kicker or Punter

Step 6. One dimensional, limited but effective role player (shoutout to Jshow)

Examples: Fullback, Blocking TE, pass catching back, run stopping DT, run stopping LB, nickel/dime corner
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tannenballs


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2016 1:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

tannenballs wrote:
After reading through a bunch of the quality posts in this thread, and digging into the subject more and doing some research of my own, this is what seems to be the most successful plan.

Step 1. Trade for Undervalued Veteran Starter

Examples: Anquan Boldin, Brandon Marshall, Martellus Bennett, Ryan Clady

Try to acquire a proven veteran starter for a day 3 pick every year. Every round if you can.

Step 2. Trade your current day 3 pick for a pick in a better round next year

Examples: Bill Belichick trade history

Trade a 5th for a 4th, a 6th for a 5th, etc.

Step 3. Draft talented player falling for injury/character

Examples: Jay Ajayi, Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, La'el Collins, Vontaze Burfict, Aaron Lynch

Step 4. Draft elite measureable player with enough special teams ability to make your team

Example: Jeff Janis

Step 5. Starting Kicker or Punter

Step 6. One dimensional, limited but effective role player (shoutout to Jshow)

Examples: Fullback, Blocking TE, pass catching back, run stopping DT, run stopping LB, nickel/dime corner


Although this might be a better plan: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tO5sxLapAts
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Packerraymond


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2016 1:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You look at your board, see who you don't think you have a very good shot at signing in UDFA and pull the trigger, at least 7th round picks. 6th you probably are still working off your board, trying to fill a ST need or depth guys. 7th round picks are just drafted FA's, if a guy is from a school you don't do well with, or an agent you don't get guys from, or is from a warm climate and you're up north etc... you use your 7th on him, knowing you'll high a higher chance for success with others on your board.
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tannenballs


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2016 1:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Packerraymond wrote:
You look at your board, see who you don't think you have a very good shot at signing in UDFA and pull the trigger, at least 7th round picks. 6th you probably are still working off your board, trying to fill a ST need or depth guys. 7th round picks are just drafted FA's, if a guy is from a school you don't do well with, or an agent you don't get guys from, or is from a warm climate and you're up north etc... you use your 7th on him, knowing you'll high a higher chance for success with others on your board.


TT was able to pry Sam Shields out of sunny Miami in the UDFA process.
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Packerraymond


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2016 3:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

tannenballs wrote:
Packerraymond wrote:
You look at your board, see who you don't think you have a very good shot at signing in UDFA and pull the trigger, at least 7th round picks. 6th you probably are still working off your board, trying to fill a ST need or depth guys. 7th round picks are just drafted FA's, if a guy is from a school you don't do well with, or an agent you don't get guys from, or is from a warm climate and you're up north etc... you use your 7th on him, knowing you'll high a higher chance for success with others on your board.


TT was able to pry Sam Shields out of sunny Miami in the UDFA process.


Well I'm not saying that will always be a turn off for a player, but it certainly can be. There's numerous factors that can play into it and I'm sure by the time the draft rolls around and workouts and meetings are done, teams know who they have a good shot and and who they'd be a long shot for.

In the case of Miami, we probably feel good about any DB there after landing Shields and Gunter as UDFA's and having both make a final roster, could be an example of us passing on a guy like say Deon Bush in the 7th because we feel we can land him in UDFA.
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Lions017


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PostPosted: Tue Apr 12, 2016 4:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Role players (3rd down RB's, blocking TE, versatile linemen, special teams ace, third string QB, etc.) are my preferred target in those rounds. You can fill out a roster with those guys that can contribute in some meaningful way.
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tannenballs


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 11:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Decided to look into this a little further...

I checked out every teams depth chart, and 75.1% of NFL Starters were taken in the first 4 rounds.

Also I've looked at draft classes for the past 7 years or so. Out of the 100 or so picks (Post- 150 picks), the average is about 1 Pro Bowl positional player. So it's 1/100 odds of finding an impact player that late..
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Jason_Bengal_Fl


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 12:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Same way you use all the other picks. Take the best guy left on your board.
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LitesOut13


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 12:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

tannenballs wrote:
Decided to look into this a little further...

I checked out every teams depth chart, and 75.1% of NFL Starters were taken in the first 4 rounds.

Also I've looked at draft classes for the past 7 years or so. Out of the 100 or so picks (Post- 150 picks), the average is about 1 Pro Bowl positional player. So it's 1/100 odds of finding an impact player that late..


Depends on your definition of impact player. Im sure plenty of solid special teams guys go late and make an impact there. Plenty of rotational players make impacts. A back up QB that can fill in when a QB goes down can have a huge impact.

It isnt all about finding starters/studs
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Flaccomania


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 02, 2016 3:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

LitesOut13 wrote:
tannenballs wrote:
Decided to look into this a little further...

I checked out every teams depth chart, and 75.1% of NFL Starters were taken in the first 4 rounds.

Also I've looked at draft classes for the past 7 years or so. Out of the 100 or so picks (Post- 150 picks), the average is about 1 Pro Bowl positional player. So it's 1/100 odds of finding an impact player that late..


Depends on your definition of impact player. Im sure plenty of solid special teams guys go late and make an impact there. Plenty of rotational players make impacts. A back up QB that can fill in when a QB goes down can have a huge impact.

It isnt all about finding starters/studs


Exactly.

In terms of the Ravens, they took Pernell McPhee at #165 in 2011 and Art Jones at #157 in 2010. Neither were "pro bowl" players but both had sizeable impacts for our team.
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tom cody


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 03, 2016 6:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Go BPA, you never know when you can find a diamond in the rough.
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jshowers


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 03, 2016 10:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

tom cody wrote:
Go BPA, you never know when you can find a diamond in the rough.


Well, technically, by analyzing historical draft data you kind of can.

Unless a guy is really special and your draft decision makers cannot decipher why other teams are passing on him, there are almost zero "boom" guys available in the late rounds where every draft fan wants to go for "boom or bust" picks with the hopes of finding a star.

Shoot for players that clearly have capped upside but are safe bets to contribute in a niche manner or provide acceptable depth to fill out a roster.

Going for guys with "high upside" will result in players who end up cut in a year or who go to the practice squad and could get claimed by another team resulting in a wasted pick.
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