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tannenballs


Joined: 25 Sep 2014
Posts: 3813
Location: Florida
PostPosted: Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:03 am    Post subject: Analytics Thread Reply with quote

I'm going to post as many relevant metrics as possible, and encourage you to do the same

RotoViz RBs- http://rotoviz.com/2016/01/box-score-scouting-2016s-top-nfl-draft-running-backs/

RotoViz WRs- http://rotoviz.com/2016/01/box-score-scouting-2016s-top-wide-receivers/

RotoViz TEs- http://rotoviz.com/2016/01/box-score-scouting-2016s-top-tight-ends/

Football outsiders Sack SEER- http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2016/sackseer-2016

SPARQ- http://3sigmaathlete.com/rankings/

www.PlayerProfiler.com (search prospect name)

Matt Richner Articles- http://www.predictionmachine.com/who-is-matt-richner-nfl-draft-expert


*will continue to update*


Last edited by tannenballs on Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:30 am; edited 3 times in total
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tannenballs


Joined: 25 Sep 2014
Posts: 3813
Location: Florida
PostPosted: Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Worth noting that SackSEER had Mack & Barr > Clowney

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2014/sackseer-2014
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jrry32


Joined: 04 Jan 2011
Posts: 69128
PostPosted: Fri Apr 08, 2016 3:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whatever happened to Greg Peshek? He usually had some great metrics.
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paul-mac


Joined: 12 Jul 2009
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Location: Scotland
PostPosted: Fri Apr 08, 2016 3:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Math rushers is by far the best analytic
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LitesOut13


Joined: 26 Nov 2013
Posts: 3331
Location: Arizona
PostPosted: Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There is a lot out there. I will post some articles I have read in the past on different studies and metrics used
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Nuclear So & So


Joined: 08 May 2015
Posts: 37
PostPosted: Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

paul-mac wrote:
Math rushers is by far the best analytic


Speaking of, anyone run the Waldo formulas on this year's group of EDGE guys?
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LitesOut13


Joined: 26 Nov 2013
Posts: 3331
Location: Arizona
PostPosted: Fri Apr 08, 2016 12:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nuclear So & So wrote:
paul-mac wrote:
Math rushers is by far the best analytic


Speaking of, anyone run the Waldo formulas on this year's group of EDGE guys?


Yes, I can post what I have later today
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LitesOut13


Joined: 26 Nov 2013
Posts: 3331
Location: Arizona
PostPosted: Fri Apr 08, 2016 3:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here are my results with Waldo's formula. I included guys that some think could play the edge, though some of them will wind up on the inside or as an off ball LB


First group is high risk. These are the guys that scored a 1.20 or higher Twitch score:




Next are the Moderate risk guys. These guys all scored between 1.10-1.19 Twitch score:




Next are the Mid-Low Risk. These guys score under a 1.10 Twitch score BUT ran slower than a 7.0 3-cone:




Next up are the Low Risk 1 guys. These guys scored under a 1.10 Twitch score AND had a 3-cone time uner 7.0:



Last are the Low Risk 2 guys. These are guys that had a 1.05 or higher Explosion score:

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LitesOut13


Joined: 26 Nov 2013
Posts: 3331
Location: Arizona
PostPosted: Fri Apr 08, 2016 3:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

There used to be an article doing something similar to Waldo's formula but for WRs and adding in Speed Score and Production but it appears the link doesnt work.

I am working on something like that myself but I am super busy so hopefully I can finish it soon
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tannenballs


Joined: 25 Sep 2014
Posts: 3813
Location: Florida
PostPosted: Fri Apr 08, 2016 4:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think analytics in terms of the evaluation process are best used to eliminate prospects from your draft board if they are an exception to height/weight/speed, etc. More so than "Player A is better than Player B" type analysis, I think it is best at predicting high risk busts, and some potential sleepers, but projecting busts seems to be the strength. If a player isn't tall, heavy, or fast enough to be a starter in the league, why would you draft him?
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lark25


Joined: 01 May 2014
Posts: 399
Location: Aus
PostPosted: Fri Apr 08, 2016 6:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree, but for a pass rusher I'd look pretty closely at metrics.

I would've liked to have seen Nkemdiche's 3 cone and shuttle. If his change of direction speed is good then physically he is a can't miss prospect, but that has never been his issue/concern.

Otherwise Joey Bosa ticks the boxes for me. Decent explosion score, elite agility, elite change of direction, good strength.

Ogbah's 3 cone and shuttle are a concern, but his explosion is very good. It could be a concern against the top tackles, but I think he's still a good player.
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tannenballs


Joined: 25 Sep 2014
Posts: 3813
Location: Florida
PostPosted: Fri Apr 15, 2016 6:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://mweb.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/nfl-draft-scout/25496353/nfl-draft-running-back-fumble-rates
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Techbert


Joined: 24 Apr 2014
Posts: 997
Location: Orion Spur
PostPosted: Fri Apr 15, 2016 2:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

LitesOut13 wrote:
Here are my results with Waldo's formula...


I ran these after the numbers came out, and was surprised at how little explosiveness was in the group. Sure, it is hard to exceed 1.05, but everyone had soft numbers.

I'm finding less and less to like, the more I look at the edge people.
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Techbert


Joined: 24 Apr 2014
Posts: 997
Location: Orion Spur
PostPosted: Fri Apr 15, 2016 2:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

lark25 wrote:
I agree, but for a pass rusher I'd look pretty closely at metrics.

I would've liked to have seen Nkemdiche's 3 cone and shuttle. If his change of direction speed is good then physically he is a can't miss prospect, but that has never been his issue/concern.

Otherwise Joey Bosa ticks the boxes for me. Decent explosion score, elite agility, elite change of direction, good strength.

Ogbah's 3 cone and shuttle are a concern, but his explosion is very good. It could be a concern against the top tackles, but I think he's still a good player.


One of the things we Waldo acolytes keep pointing out is that players get to the qb with either explosiveness or twitch, and not really both. Explosive rushers overrun things, for example. So they often do not have good 3 cone. So Nkemdiche's 3 cone is not a big deal because he uses explosiveness. Bosa's explosiveness helps less than you would think.

My problem with Ogbah is I don't think he is a very good player. A leaner, who seems to have trouble sometimes even figuring out where to line up. If the explosiveness is good but not 1.05 he better have good twitch, which Ogbah lacks.

The rush prospects that kill coaches are the ones with some good metrics sprinkled in, but still have poor twitch and less than 1.05 explosiveness. You want to give guys with 1.03 explosiveness some credit for that, but those turn out to be the very good college players that hit a wall in the pros.
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indigo_rex


Joined: 03 Mar 2016
Posts: 211
PostPosted: Fri Apr 15, 2016 8:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great thread, tannenballs. I appreciate the variety of applications.

Ogbah ranks near, or at, the top in a couple (Sackseers and predictionmachine). Not surprised.
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