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Cincinnati Reds Thread, The Downward Spiral
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THE DUKE


Joined: 28 Feb 2005
Posts: 17840
Location: Centerville, OH
PostPosted: Sat Apr 01, 2017 9:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

hrubes20 wrote:
THE DUKE wrote:
Apparently Amir Garrett AND Rookie Davis will start the year in the rotation as opposed to being in AAA for 2 weeks and getting another year of control. Also, Robert Stephenson AND Cody Reed are going to pitch out of the bullpen with them transitioning back to starting at future date.


But how the @#$% does this help the Cincinnati Reds?


Well, now they'll be free agents in 2023 instead of 2024. Because 8 starts of rookie Garrett/Davis is apparently better than potentially 68 starts of prime years Garrett/Davis. Given how much the Reds new GM has bought into analytics and market inefficiencies, I'm truly dumbfounded by this move.
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BurheadTitans


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't care if we suck or not but Opening Day is always the best. Not to mention I managed to leave work early for the game Cool
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hrubes20


Joined: 02 Jan 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Apr 03, 2017 3:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

THE DUKE wrote:
hrubes20 wrote:
THE DUKE wrote:
Apparently Amir Garrett AND Rookie Davis will start the year in the rotation as opposed to being in AAA for 2 weeks and getting another year of control. Also, Robert Stephenson AND Cody Reed are going to pitch out of the bullpen with them transitioning back to starting at future date.


But how the @#$% does this help the Cincinnati Reds?


Well, now they'll be free agents in 2023 instead of 2024. Because 8 starts of rookie Garrett/Davis is apparently better than potentially 68 starts of prime years Garrett/Davis. Given how much the Reds new GM has bought into analytics and market inefficiencies, I'm truly dumbfounded by this move.


Sorry. My post was just a jab at Bryan Price's tirade last year.
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THE DUKE


Joined: 28 Feb 2005
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 04, 2017 2:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Word is Arroyo is starting on Saturday. It would make sense if we weren't starting arbitration clocks anyway.
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THE DUKE


Joined: 28 Feb 2005
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Minor league opening day!

Here are the opening day rosters and my projected lineup for each full season affiliate. The Wahoos is a guess since for whatever reason, they still haven't released their roster yet. I suppose we'll see who's playing tonight anyway.

Low A Dayton Dragons

1. TJ Friedl, CF
2. Michael Beltre, LF
3. Taylor Trammell, RF
4. James Vasquez, 1B
5. Tyler Stephenson, C
6. Brantley Bell, 2B
7. Jose Siri, DH
8. John Sansone, 3B
9. Hector Vargas, SS

BN: Cassidy Brown, C
BN: Luis Gonzalez, MIF
BN: Avain Rachal, Util

1. Tony Santillan
2. Scott Moss
3. Wennington Romero
4. Ryan Olson
5. Andrew Jordan

LR: Andy Cox
MR: Aaron Fossas
MR: Jesse Adams
MR: Patrick Riehl
MR: Lucas Benenati
SU: Joel Huhnel
CL: Ryan Hendrix

Notes:
All 4 of the Dragons OF (Trammell, Friedl, Beltre, and Siri) are good defenders who can all play CF. Dayton should have ridiculously good OF defense with all of them playing all over and getting days off at DH as well.
Ryan Hendrix has topped out at 100 mph, I'm a little surprised he is back in Dayton even as a 2016 draftee since he spent some time there last year with some success. His curveball is a swing and miss pitch as well.
Scott Moss is a breakout candidate for methis year. He was a big time recruit at Florida, but Tommy John surgery derailed the better part of his college career. In the super regional last year though he threw 6 shutout innings and got an important start over AJ Puk. He sat 91-93 last year, but routinely touched 95-96 and is now another year back from TJ
Don't sleep on Cassidy Brown, a 12th rd pick last year, but produced a .322/.426/.383 line in Billings last year in 176 plate appearances. He has raw power that may translate a little better this year with more wood bat experience. T Stephenson is the better prospect (who looks like an NFL linebacker now at 6'4" 230 lbs), but Brown is a solid defender as well. Brown could emerge as a valuable backup in the future.

High A Daytona Tortugas

1. Daniel Sweet, RF
2. Shed Long, 2B
3. Nick Senzel, 3B
4. Gavin Lavalley, 1B
5. Chris Okey, C
6. Narciso Crook, CF
7. Blake Butler, DH
8. Reydel Medina, LF
9. Alfredo Rodriguez, SS

BN: Mitch Piantik, OF
BN: Josciel Veras, Util Inf
BN: Garrett Boulware, C/1B

1. Vladimir Gutierrez
2. Jonathan Crawford
3. Wendolyn Bautista
4. Jose Lopez
5. Ty Boyles

LR: Jesus Reyes
LR: Austin Orweiler
MR: Jake Paulson
MR: Braulio Ortiz
MR: Geoff Broussard
MR: Robert Stock
SU: Sandy Lugo
CL: Tanner Rainey

Notes:
After Vlad Gutierrez, the rest of the pitching staff is a bit of a mish mash. Jonathan Crawford is finally healthy, but who knows if he remains that way. Ty Boyles has been very inconsistent. Mark Armstrong is on the DL and has had an extensive injury history the past two seasons. We could see starts from Reyes, Orweiler, and Paulson as well.
Vlad Gutierrez looked very good in spring training sitting 93-95 and touching 96-97 with a nasty curve. The changeup needs development, but it shows promise. He got $4.75 million signing from Cuba in the offseason.
Shed Long had a breakout season at the plate a year ago and showed surprising pop in his bat for a smaller player with 30 2B, 5 3B, and 15 HR playing in two pitcher friendly leagues last year in Dayton and Daytona. He's a candidate for a midseason promotion.
Nick Senzel is the organizations top prospect and showed good power potential last year and this spring training. It was discussed starting him in AA with his advanced approach and all around game, but there is no reason to have him up with the big club before May 2018 to control service time with the Reds being non-competitive as of yet, and this is a good way to help ensure that. I'll be surprised if he isn't in AA by midseason.
I'm a little surprised Gavin Lavalley is back in Daytona after a solid 2nd half last year, but it's not a terrible thing and it'd be good to see more consistent in game power.

AA Pensacola Blue Wahoos

1. Blake Trahan, SS
2. Alex Blandino, 2B
3. Aristides Aquino, RF
4. Angelo Gumbs, DH
5. Taylor Sparks, 3B
6. Eric Jagielo, 1B
7. Brian O'Grady, CF
8. Jeff Gelalich, LF
9. Joe Hudson, C

BN: Calten Daal, MIF
BN: Jonathan Reynoso, OF
BN: Josh VanMeter, Util
BN: Leon Landry, OF

1. Luis Castillo
2. Tyler Mahle
3. Keury Mella
4. Seth Varner
5. Ismael Guillon

LR: Alex Powers
MR: Juan Martinez
MR: Nolan Becker
MR: Brennan Bernadino
MR: Jack Ehret
SU: Ariel Hernandez
CL: Jimmy Herget

Notes:
With Nick Travieso on the DL, I expect Ismael Guillon will be used like he was last year, starting as needed, and then in the bullpen if there are enough starting arms to go
Aristides Aquino showed major power last year in the FSL to go along with plus OF defense in RF. If he can continue the improvements in plate discipline he showed last year and handle the jump to AA, he could start shooting up prospect lists.
Luis Castillo was impressive in spring training after acquiring him in the Dan Straily trade. A bulldog mentality on the mound, better than advertised control, a fastball sitting 95-97 (touching 99) with a decent slider and good changeup.
A lot of guesswork with the bullpen, don't be surprised if I'm fairly off on that. A little bit of guesswork on the bench as well. About the only guarantees are that Ariel Hernandez will be there, and Jimmy Herget will be closing
Calten Daal has shown some promise at SS and as a contact hitter, but injuries have really held him back the last couple years.
This team will get a big infusion of talent throughout the year as I expect at some point Nick Senzel, Shed Long, Gavin Lavalley, and Chris Okey to all get promoted. Maybe Vlad Gutierrez as well.

AAA Louisville Bats

1. Phillip Ervin, RF
2. Dilson Herrera, 2B
3. Jesse Winker, LF
4. Brandon Dixon, 1B
5. Sebastian Elizalde, DH
6. Seth Mejias-Brean, 3B
7. Zach Vincej, SS
8. Beau Amaral, CF
9. Rob Brantley, C

BN: Juan Perez, Inf
BN: Chad Wallach, C/1B
BN: Tony Renda, Util
BN: Tyler Goeddell, OF

1. Sal Romano
2. Jackson Stephens
3. Lisalverto Bonilla
4. Tim Adleman
5. Rob Wooten

LR: Kevin Shackelford
MR: Lucas Luetge
MR: Nick Routt
MR: Louis Coleman
MR: Kyle McMyne
SU: Evan Mitchell
CL: Alejandro Chacin

Notes:
Expect Phillip Ervin to play all 3 OF spots quite a bit. Amaral is the best defensive CF on the roster, but Ervin and Goeddell will both see time there as well. Elizalde will be the top backup to both corner OF spots and get plenty of PT as well.
Zack Weiss is still hurt. He showed a ton of promise, but he's missed a lot of time now.
Every year Alejandro Chacin starts off as a middle reliever and every year he ends up closing sooner rather than later and doing well. His stuff is average which is why he's had to prove himself at every level, but the kid just knows how to pitch. He had 30 saves last year in AA despite not being the closer initially. He may get a shot with the big club this year.
Brandon Dixon will be moved all around this year. Expect to see him at 1B, 3B, 2B, and potentially even in the corner OF spots. He could be a future RH power bench option for the Reds and is at least average defensively at several spots.
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Spartan300


Joined: 08 Jan 2012
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 08, 2017 6:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What a great debut from Amir Garrett last night. Love watching the young pitching this year.
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THE DUKE


Joined: 28 Feb 2005
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PostPosted: Sun Apr 09, 2017 6:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Spartan300 wrote:
What a great debut from Amir Garrett last night. Love watching the young pitching this year.


It was a great debut. If things don't change, I doubt we see Arroyo or Feldman much past April.
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THE DUKE


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 09, 2017 11:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

In a world gone mad, the Cincinnati Reds are in first place with a lock down bullpen and 4 quality starts in 6 games. Small sample sizes are fun.
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BurheadTitans


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 7:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

THE DUKE wrote:
In a world gone mad, the Cincinnati Reds are in first place with a lock down bullpen and 4 quality starts in 6 games. Small sample sizes are fun.


Print the World Series tickets Cool
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THE DUKE


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PostPosted: Mon Apr 10, 2017 10:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

7 perfect innings from the bullpen (Lorenzen/Reed/Peralta, 3/3/1) after Brandon Finnegan somehow only gets one earned run on 4 hits and 5 walks in 2+ IP
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THE DUKE


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PostPosted: Wed Apr 12, 2017 11:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Amir Garrett with another great start. 2 career starts, 2 quality starts. Fastball, changeup, slider, and command all working.
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THE DUKE


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 16, 2017 9:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Homer Bailey, 60 day DL, has barely pitched since 2014
Anthony Desclafani, 60 day DL for the second year in a row
Brandon Finnegan, 10 day DL, expected to miss at least a month
Rookie Davis, hit by pitch on throwing forearm, 10 day DL

This crap is getting ridiculous.
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Anonymous3


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 22, 2017 8:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

THE DUKE wrote:

Don't sleep on Cassidy Brown, a 12th rd pick last year, but produced a .322/.426/.383 line in Billings last year in 176 plate appearances. He has raw power that may translate a little better this year with more wood bat experience. T Stephenson is the better prospect (who looks like an NFL linebacker now at 6'4" 230 lbs), but Brown is a solid defender as well. Brown could emerge as a valuable backup in the future.


My stepdad was college roommates with Brown's dad. He comes from a really nice family.
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THE DUKE


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PostPosted: Sun Apr 23, 2017 12:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Red AA pitcher Tyler Mahle threw a perfect game in only 89 pitches tonight. 8 K's. Fastball is 91-93, but he can run it up to 96 when he needs it. Above average slider and changeup, average curve, plus control and command.
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THE DUKE


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PostPosted: Thu May 04, 2017 8:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was at the Reds game last night.

Geno Suarez is probably my favorite Red nowadays. He looks smooth out there now that he is comfortable at 3B and the bat is really coming alive as he enters his prime. If the Reds can lock him up through his age 31 or age 32 season (he's 25 now and still pre-arb) they might want to think about getting Senzel reps at 3B.

Rookie Davis obviously doesn't trust his stuff against MLB hitters. Every time he gives up a hard hit, he tries to nibble around the corners and then starts walking everyone. He can pound the zone for strikes, but seems like he gets shaken after every hit. If I were the Reds, I'd see his future in the bullpen where his fastball can be consistently 95-97 as opposed to the 93-94 and occasionally touching 95-96 that it is as a starter (I saw one 96 and maybe 5-6 95's last night). Then I'd have him focus on throwing his slider low in the zone as a primary secondary pitch.

Cody Reed's old mechanics tipped his pitches, but his new one mechanics that hides the ball better still seem awkward for him. He just doesn't look comfortable throwing the ball. McCutcheon just crushed the fastball he let get up in the zone, it landed in the upper deck in LF.

That was probably the hardest I've seen Billy Hamilton hit the ball as a pro. He was robbed of a hard hit line drive in the first, and his HR was a no doubter as long as it stayed fair, which is just barely did. It was right down the RF line, but it was a good 25-30 feet above the wall as it went out.

Fun night with the kids, and it was good to see the Reds beat up Jameson Taillon, one of the Pirates best pitchers.
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