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Alex Boone trade value
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bucstopshere


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2014 1:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

dan77733 wrote:
Reason why Boone is worth a first round draft pick is because he can play and start at LT, RT, LG and RG. Few offensive linemen can do that. If he only played OG, then his value would be a third rounder but he can and has started at RT thus his value goes up to a second rounder. LT is the premier offensive line position and Boone would probably be an upgrade at LT for at least a third of the league and thus, his value has goes up to a first rounder. Add in his cheap contract with two years remaining and him being only 27, he would be as good or better than any OT and OG prospect in next year's NFL Draft.

As for any off the field problems, guy hasn't had any problems as a 49er. He's the guy that others like Aldon should hang around with and learn from.

Again, anything less than a 2015 first rounder should be declined in my opinion. If no team is willing to offer a 2015 first rounder, the 49ers should just keep him and wait for him to show up by week 10 as he would have to if he wants credit for an accrued season. If he doesn't, he would still be under contract for two more seasons instead of going into a contract year.


You understand his "cheap contract" is absolutely worthless right? He doesn't want to play on that contract. They only benefit I guess is if a team that was cap strapped for this year, so say the Panthers where they could increase the contract in the following years, but why would Boone want that?

I understand he's your guy and you want and think he is worth this first round pick but I just don't see it
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Swift21


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2014 2:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

A first round pick? I do find that far fetched.
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y2lamanaki


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2014 6:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Only once since 2000 has an offensive linemen been traded for a first round pick, and that was 2x Pro Bowler Jason Peters who actually was a Pro Bowl player at LT (not just 'could play') and was only 26. He fetched the #28 overall pick.

So it's a pipe dream if anyone thinks Alex Boone is getting a first round pick, unless you expect the Cowboys or Raiders to get absolutely decimated at the position and will come calling, but even then...my bet is on a 2nd in an absolute best-case scenario.
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AMG1713


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2014 7:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd only take a 2nd for Boone, because I really don't want to trade him away in the first place and a 2nd would be the "can't say no" offer that would make me say otherwise. What I really want is for him to come into camp, sign him to a reasonable extension, let Iupati walk next year, and plug Brandon Thomas into LG next year.
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oldman9er


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2014 9:58 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bucstopshere wrote:
It's somewhat funny you view him as a first round pick. He wasn't a world beater last year, and yes he did have a great 2012 season, but he has had a continual history of off the field problems.

I think a 3rd gets it done at the end of the day


Glad I could brighten your day with some humor then.


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J-ALL-DAY


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2014 11:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

y2lamanaki wrote:
Only once since 2000 has an offensive linemen been traded for a first round pick, and that was 2x Pro Bowler Jason Peters who actually was a Pro Bowl player at LT (not just 'could play') and was only 26. He fetched the #28 overall pick.

So it's a pipe dream if anyone thinks Alex Boone is getting a first round pick, unless you expect the Cowboys or Raiders to get absolutely decimated at the position and will come calling, but even then...my bet is on a 2nd in an absolute best-case scenario.


Yep, I've been saying the entire time we ask for a 2nd, and settle for a 3rd. I rather keep him and let Iupati walk as he will ask for 9-11 million per year.
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2014 1:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

y2lamanaki wrote:
Only once since 2000 has an offensive linemen been traded for a first round pick, and that was 2x Pro Bowler Jason Peters who actually was a Pro Bowl player at LT (not just 'could play') and was only 26. He fetched the #28 overall pick.

So it's a pipe dream if anyone thinks Alex Boone is getting a first round pick, unless you expect the Cowboys or Raiders to get absolutely decimated at the position and will come calling, but even then...my bet is on a 2nd in an absolute best-case scenario.


Just to clarify the Peters situation. He held out in 2008 but the Bills did not cave. He eventually came back in and played that year ... which probably is the most likely situation for Boone. When he was traded it was before the 2009 draft. So the pick they got for him was not a "future" pick. If we traded Boone now for a pick he would play for someone in 2014 but our draft pick would not be able to play for us until 2015. That's makes it a future round pick. A likely bottom of the first round future pick is often valued like a second rounder. So it would not be out of the question for Boone.

I agree that it is highly unlikely, but I still think there is some slight chance that if there is a really good team in need of a G or T, whose chances for the playoffs would be hurt if they couldn't fill that hole, might consider sending their 2015 pick for him. Of course no one would be doing that who wanted him for depth or to battle it out for a starting spot. It would have to be a team with a definite need.
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Ronnie's Pinky


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2014 1:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Trading Boone for anything less than a 2nd makes no sense. The 49ers have all the leverage here. Boone's not getting richer or more valuable sitting on his [inappropriate/removed] at home, and his cheap contract rolls over if he doesn't play this season. The team is deep enough to simply let him rot until he is ready to come back and play. Not only is that better than giving away a great young lineman at a discount, is also sends a message to any potential holdouts in the future.

Tampa fans who think they can pluck him for a 3rd can get stuffed. Baalke's no fool. Lol...a 3rd is what we got for letting them take Goldson off our hands. Boone will cost more.
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y2lamanaki


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2014 2:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:
Just to clarify the Peters situation. He held out in 2008 but the Bills did not cave. He eventually came back in and played that year ... which probably is the most likely situation for Boone. When he was traded it was before the 2009 draft. So the pick they got for him was not a "future" pick. If we traded Boone now for a pick he would play for someone in 2014 but our draft pick would not be able to play for us until 2015. That's makes it a future round pick. A likely bottom of the first round future pick is often valued like a second rounder. So it would not be out of the question for Boone.

I agree that it is highly unlikely, but I still think there is some slight chance that if there is a really good team in need of a G or T, whose chances for the playoffs would be hurt if they couldn't fill that hole, might consider sending their 2015 pick for him. Of course no one would be doing that who wanted him for depth or to battle it out for a starting spot. It would have to be a team with a definite need.


That's not what 'future pick' means, though. The only time a 'future pick' is worth a round lower than a 'current pick' is when using the trade value chart for draft pick trades. In that instance only, is when the term 'future pick' has any kind of relevance. We didn't essentially trade Alex Smith for a 2nd and 3rd. We traded him for 2 seconds. That was always the value should the Chiefs win 8 games. When the Raiders traded with the Bengals for Carson Palmer for a 2012 first and a 2013 2nd. They weren't 'technically' trading for a 2nd and 3rd (or a 4th...I don't know how you assume they'd value two drafts ahead). They were trading exactly what it was.

Even then - not all teams use this 'future pick' concept, because usually it handicaps the team trading away the future pick. It's a guideline...but it's for the draft pick value chart...not every day charts.
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rudyZ


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2014 3:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

J-ALL-DAY wrote:
y2lamanaki wrote:
Only once since 2000 has an offensive linemen been traded for a first round pick, and that was 2x Pro Bowler Jason Peters who actually was a Pro Bowl player at LT (not just 'could play') and was only 26. He fetched the #28 overall pick.

So it's a pipe dream if anyone thinks Alex Boone is getting a first round pick, unless you expect the Cowboys or Raiders to get absolutely decimated at the position and will come calling, but even then...my bet is on a 2nd in an absolute best-case scenario.


Yep, I've been saying the entire time we ask for a 2nd, and settle for a 3rd. I rather keep him and let Iupati walk as he will ask for 9-11 million per year.



I'm more of a "ask for first, settle for second" kind of guy. If we're going into the season without Boone (either by him holding out or us trading him), we might as well get the most out of him. If he's not going to play, let's keep him until a team is desperate enough to cave in to our demands. He's not really crippling us at his current salary. If he does cave and shows up, then we get a good player, and we may still be showcasing him for a trade. We might not get a first rounder then either, but at least we'll be getting a probowler in the line-up. And if we end up trading him next offseason, whatever we get will be "X round pick + 2014 season of play", as opposed to the same X round pick and nothing else. If he holds out and misses the entire year, then he's in big trouble.
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2014 6:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

y2lamanaki wrote:
big9erfan wrote:
Just to clarify the Peters situation. He held out in 2008 but the Bills did not cave. He eventually came back in and played that year ... which probably is the most likely situation for Boone. When he was traded it was before the 2009 draft. So the pick they got for him was not a "future" pick. If we traded Boone now for a pick he would play for someone in 2014 but our draft pick would not be able to play for us until 2015. That's makes it a future round pick. A likely bottom of the first round future pick is often valued like a second rounder. So it would not be out of the question for Boone.

I agree that it is highly unlikely, but I still think there is some slight chance that if there is a really good team in need of a G or T, whose chances for the playoffs would be hurt if they couldn't fill that hole, might consider sending their 2015 pick for him. Of course no one would be doing that who wanted him for depth or to battle it out for a starting spot. It would have to be a team with a definite need.


That's not what 'future pick' means, though. The only time a 'future pick' is worth a round lower than a 'current pick' is when using the trade value chart for draft pick trades. In that instance only, is when the term 'future pick' has any kind of relevance. We didn't essentially trade Alex Smith for a 2nd and 3rd. We traded him for 2 seconds. That was always the value should the Chiefs win 8 games. When the Raiders traded with the Bengals for Carson Palmer for a 2012 first and a 2013 2nd. They weren't 'technically' trading for a 2nd and 3rd (or a 4th...I don't know how you assume they'd value two drafts ahead). They were trading exactly what it was.

Even then - not all teams use this 'future pick' concept, because usually it handicaps the team trading away the future pick. It's a guideline...but it's for the draft pick value chart...not every day charts.


Not arguing here, just not sure I understand what you are saying. I am under the impression that during the draft when teams trade picks, that a "future pick", i.e., one not for the current season, is worth "less" than a current pick. In other words I'm under the impression that a team might trade this year's third or next year's second for the same guy. It's not quite the cut and dried, I understand. But I'm not talking about trade charts; I'm talking about real trades teams make. Seems to me the value of future picks is always lower than a current pick at the same spot. In fact I'm sure there are times when team trade future picks for current picks (rather than players). I think those trades always offer a higher future pick for the current pick. e.g., next years first for the other team's second this year.

And it makes perfect sense to me that it would be so because one team is having to pay the price of waiting a year to get value out of the deal. That delayed benefit means, in theory I would think, that the team offering the future pick would have to offer a bit more than what they would if it were a current pick. It';s just like time value of money. A thousand dollars right now is worth more than the promise of a thousand dollars a year from now.

In any case, I do see this as precisely a "future pick" situation. Doesn't matter whether we do it now, or did it back before the draft. What we're talking about is trading Boone not for a 2014 pick, but for a 2015 pick.
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J-ALL-DAY


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2014 7:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rudyZ wrote:
I'm more of a "ask for first, settle for second" kind of guy. If we're going into the season without Boone (either by him holding out or us trading him), we might as well get the most out of him. If he's not going to play, let's keep him until a team is desperate enough to cave in to our demands. He's not really crippling us at his current salary. If he does cave and shows up, then we get a good player, and we may still be showcasing him for a trade. We might not get a first rounder then either, but at least we'll be getting a probowler in the line-up. And if we end up trading him next offseason, whatever we get will be "X round pick + 2014 season of play", as opposed to the same X round pick and nothing else. If he holds out and misses the entire year, then he's in big trouble.


I said what the team would do, not me.

Personally, I'd as for McCoy/David and settle for two 1st rounders Wink.
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y2lamanaki


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PostPosted: Tue Aug 12, 2014 8:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

big9erfan wrote:
Not arguing here, just not sure I understand what you are saying. I am under the impression that during the draft when teams trade picks, that a "future pick", i.e., one not for the current season, is worth "less" than a current pick. In other words I'm under the impression that a team might trade this year's third or next year's second for the same guy. It's not quite the cut and dried, I understand. But I'm not talking about trade charts; I'm talking about real trades teams make. Seems to me the value of future picks is always lower than a current pick at the same spot. In fact I'm sure there are times when team trade future picks for current picks (rather than players). I think those trades always offer a higher future pick for the current pick. e.g., next years first for the other team's second this year.

And it makes perfect sense to me that it would be so because one team is having to pay the price of waiting a year to get value out of the deal. That delayed benefit means, in theory I would think, that the team offering the future pick would have to offer a bit more than what they would if it were a current pick. It';s just like time value of money. A thousand dollars right now is worth more than the promise of a thousand dollars a year from now.

In any case, I do see this as precisely a "future pick" situation. Doesn't matter whether we do it now, or did it back before the draft. What we're talking about is trading Boone not for a 2014 pick, but for a 2015 pick.


Teams, with rare exceptions, don't trade picks from further than the next upcoming draft for players, unless there are multiple picks in the deal. There's no point to it for exactly the reason you mentioned - the team taking the future pick has to really wait for the value they got from what they gave up. Given that GMs are in win-now mode at all times with how frequently they're gone, that's just not something that's done in football.

With that said, the only reason anyone created a value of a round below for future round picks is for draft day trades. A future draft pick is worth a round below as a guideline to protect the team losing the current year's draft picks. It's just a guideline like the trade value chart itself. It's something of a safety net. It's valuing a future pick as either the last pick in the earlier round, or the first pick in the later round. For example, a future 1st is treated as a current 2nd because that assumes the pick will either be Round 1 Pick 32 or Round 2 Pick 1. In doing so, it estimates a value for that pick and acts as a safety net for the team making the trade. Since they're giving up a round 2 pick (let's say pick 37th overall), to obtain value they want the 37th pick or better next year. The only way to assure that is to go with a future first, which is the closest to first pick in the 2nd round where the pick actually was given up. If they asked for a future 2nd, then the value would only occur if the pick actually happened to be the #33 pick. In reality, they could trade the 37th for the 64th, which means they completely lose out. The team making the trade assumes that they will pick in the bottom of the first, so it's like trading the #32 next year for the #37 this year. In that respect, they win because they get the player they had to have, and only gave up 5 spots in the draft to get it.

When valuing an actual player, teams are going to use the upcoming draft to gauge the player's value. If they believe the player is worth a 3rd round pick, they're going to offer a third round pick in the upcoming draft, not a 2nd two drafts from now, because then they're giving up more than what they believe the player is worth to get him.
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TiberiusRising


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 18, 2014 11:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was thinking we (Raiders) should trade you guys McGloin and other pick (5?) for him. You guys need a backup QB in bad way.
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big9erfan


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PostPosted: Mon Aug 18, 2014 12:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TiberiusRising wrote:
I was thinking we (Raiders) should trade you guys McGloin and other pick (5?) for him. You guys need a backup QB in bad way.


I got a nice chuckle out of this one.
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