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I'm worried that Peppers is done
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AlexGreen#20


Joined: 13 Jun 2012
Posts: 6877
PostPosted: Sun Jul 13, 2014 8:51 pm    Post subject: I'm worried that Peppers is done Reply with quote

I'll be the first to say that I'm not a fan of PFF, but their observations in this regard match my own. I trust Ted in this regard, but I'd be lying if I said that I was thrilled for this move.

Quote:
If the idea is for Peppers himself to be versatile then that is an added risk the Packers are taking on before you even consider his steady decline with the Bears from his peak in 2010. Over the course of his career in Chicago, Peppers’ versatility diminished (at least in his deployment) with the lowest percentage of his snaps coming on the defense’s right edge in his first season (2010, 65.7%) rising to its peak at 85.4% this past season. The Packers have shown willingness to move players to maximize their talents (epitomized by Mike Neal’s shift to outside linebacker this year) but that takes time and at 34, even if he was focused on rushing the passer, time is not something the Packers have in abundance where Peppers is concerned.


Quote:
He did a solid job this season of supplementing his production with “free pressure”. Four of his six sacks from the DRE spot (his 7th came from DRT) were either unblocked, in clean up or pursuing to the quarterback outside the pocket. This helped to hide an unproductive area of his game which was beating blockers to the outside off the edge. Here he yielded only eight total pressures (2 Sk, 0 Ht, 6 Hu) a year after netting 19 (6 Sk, 1 Ht, 12 Hu) and 22 (3 Sk, 1 Ht, 18 Hu) in 2011.


Compared to Perry:

Quote:
According to ProFootballFocus.com, Perry rushed from the right outside linebackers spot on just 55 snaps last season but recorded all four of his sacks from that side. He had no other quarterback hits from that side but had seven hurries. In 139 rushes from the left outside linebacker position, Perry did not record a single sack or quarterback hit but was credited with 14 hurries.



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I have to say, I see no way we don't start 1-4, with our schedule.
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NormSizedMidget


Joined: 28 Mar 2011
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 13, 2014 9:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I haven't been real vocal but I never once liked this move. I'm basically saying I trust you Ted.
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SDN40


Joined: 13 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 13, 2014 9:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Signing Peppers was a risk, but a calculated one that will not upset the salary cap should it fail. I think the new position and contending team will re-energize Peppers. I thought I read somewhere that he has always wanted to give the 3-4 a shot. By all accounts, he is moving and hustling better than the younger guys. I also wonder if his declining numbers matched the declining team defense of the Bears.

Regardless, I applaud the effort at adding talent, especially with the added bonus of having almost no financial risk. A sure thing would have been 10 million per, hence we wouldn't have done it.

At the end of the day, our defensive success doesn't hinge upon the success of Peppers, rather the success of our safeties IMO
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Skypilot


Joined: 14 Dec 2013
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 13, 2014 10:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SDN40 wrote:
Signing Peppers was a risk, but a calculated one that will not upset the salary cap should it fail. I think the new position and contending team will re-energize Peppers. I thought I read somewhere that he has always wanted to give the 3-4 a shot. By all accounts, he is moving and hustling better than the younger guys. I also wonder if his declining numbers matched the declining team defense of the Bears.

Regardless, I applaud the effort at adding talent, especially with the added bonus of having almost no financial risk


They had to do something to help Mathews. Can't just wait on the injury- prone and bad fit at OLB, Nick Perry, the converted DT Mike Neal, or UDFA's like Mulumba to step up.

I've also noticed that people's acceptance of PFF depends on whether they agree with the statistical analysis of one or more of their favorite players. So, if one were to disregard their analysis of, say, the Packers ILB'ers in 2012 when Brad Jones was among the top ILB's in the league according to PFF, and they other guy wasn't, why suddenly get worried about Peppers' declining production/effectiveness?

In 2014 at least, Peppers is getting paid a lot and we should expect results. Long term risk, no, yet it's a significant short term investment.
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AlexGreen#20


Joined: 13 Jun 2012
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 13, 2014 10:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Skypilot wrote:
SDN40 wrote:
Signing Peppers was a risk, but a calculated one that will not upset the salary cap should it fail. I think the new position and contending team will re-energize Peppers. I thought I read somewhere that he has always wanted to give the 3-4 a shot. By all accounts, he is moving and hustling better than the younger guys. I also wonder if his declining numbers matched the declining team defense of the Bears.

Regardless, I applaud the effort at adding talent, especially with the added bonus of having almost no financial risk


They had to do something to help Mathews. Can't just wait on the injury- prone and bad fit at OLB, Nick Perry or the UDFA's like Mulumba to step up.

I've also noticed that people's acceptance of PFF depends on whether they agree with the statistical analysis of one or more of their favorite players. So, if one were to disregard their analysis of, say, the Packers ILB'ers in 2012 when Brad Jones was among the top ILB's in the league according to PFF, and they other guy wasn't, why suddenly get worried about Peppers' declining production/effectiveness?

In 2014 at least, Peppers is getting paid a lot and we should expect results. Long term risk, no, yet it's a significant short term investment.


Hard to screw up pass rushing grades.
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AaronCharles wrote:
I have to say, I see no way we don't start 1-4, with our schedule.
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NormSizedMidget


Joined: 28 Mar 2011
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PostPosted: Sun Jul 13, 2014 10:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AlexGreen#20 wrote:
Skypilot wrote:
SDN40 wrote:
Signing Peppers was a risk, but a calculated one that will not upset the salary cap should it fail. I think the new position and contending team will re-energize Peppers. I thought I read somewhere that he has always wanted to give the 3-4 a shot. By all accounts, he is moving and hustling better than the younger guys. I also wonder if his declining numbers matched the declining team defense of the Bears.

Regardless, I applaud the effort at adding talent, especially with the added bonus of having almost no financial risk


They had to do something to help Mathews. Can't just wait on the injury- prone and bad fit at OLB, Nick Perry or the UDFA's like Mulumba to step up.

I've also noticed that people's acceptance of PFF depends on whether they agree with the statistical analysis of one or more of their favorite players. So, if one were to disregard their analysis of, say, the Packers ILB'ers in 2012 when Brad Jones was among the top ILB's in the league according to PFF, and they other guy wasn't, why suddenly get worried about Peppers' declining production/effectiveness?

In 2014 at least, Peppers is getting paid a lot and we should expect results. Long term risk, no, yet it's a significant short term investment.


Hard to screw up pass rushing grades.


Not sure I completely agree. The fact it only cares about the result and not tech nor does it account for the talent of the opponent is pretty weak.
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Packerraymond


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PostPosted: Sun Jul 13, 2014 11:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why would you look at last year? Read what Daniels, MM, Clay have all said. Pep was the only relevant piece on a historically bad DL where he was asked to do the same thing every play and was the only player to focus on in that defense. He was bored and run down. Would your production fall off in a work environment where your job was monotonous and your coworkers unfit for the job?

Pep is a freak, watch him move around in practice and look at his energy in a role where he'll no longer be in a mundane position with no help, he's far from done.
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mikemike778


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 3:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would expect him to be a valuable asset for the price in 2014. Problem is there is a good chance he is not going to be worth keeping round in 2015 which means dead money.
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blueswedeshoes


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 7:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Packerraymond wrote:
Why would you look at last year? Read what Daniels, MM, Clay have all said. Pep was the only relevant piece on a historically bad DL where he was asked to do the same thing every play and was the only player to focus on in that defense. He was bored and run down. Would your production fall off in a work environment where your job was monotonous and your coworkers unfit for the job?

Pep is a freak, watch him move around in practice and look at his energy in a role where he'll no longer be in a mundane position with no help, he's far from done.


This is a good counterpoint, Packerraymond. I don't think Packer Nation is in a swoon over hiring Peppers. We are mindful of his age and recent lack of production. But, when you give him a shot to do what he does best while other powerful pieces are also on the board, he may have a lot of fun playing football for Green Bay in 2014.
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gizmo2012


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 7:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

mikemike778 wrote:
I would expect him to be a valuable asset for the price in 2014. Problem is there is a good chance he is not going to be worth keeping round in 2015 which means dead money.


This is a ridiculous conclusion at this point. Certainly Peppers age tells all of us he doesn't have a lot of good years left, but he may very well have 2 or 3 good years left which is exactly what TT is counting on. Just take Peppers of last year with a horrible defense where teams could afford to double team him - 7.5 sacks, 1 Int, 3 PD, 2 FF, 1 FR, 31 Tackles and 14 Assists and compare that to anyone on the Packers DL. The stats speak for themselves so the doom and gloom is absurd. Get Peppers in a rotation where he can get a few breaks and he may very well have a big year or 2 or 3.
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strat1080


Joined: 16 Apr 2010
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Packerraymond wrote:
Why would you look at last year? Read what Daniels, MM, Clay have all said. Pep was the only relevant piece on a historically bad DL where he was asked to do the same thing every play and was the only player to focus on in that defense. He was bored and run down. Would your production fall off in a work environment where your job was monotonous and your coworkers unfit for the job?

Pep is a freak, watch him move around in practice and look at his energy in a role where he'll no longer be in a mundane position with no help, he's far from done.


I agree. Since 2010 that Bears defense has been on the decline. That is why Peppers' numbers have declined. That is why I don't get all the hype with the Bears this offseason and their supposed "defensive improvements". Peppers was pretty much the only factor in that Front 7 last year. He was overworked and double teamed over and over. We aren't looking for Peppers to be Robert Quinn or JJ Watt. He is simply a complimentary piece for the Front 7.

I think we will see a very motivated Julius Peppers. The guy that restructured his contract for the team only to be cut a few years later. He probably got tired of playing 2nd fiddle to us. I think people are exaggerating how much we are paying the guy. We didn't give him Top 5 pass rusher money for crying out loud.
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IrishGreen


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 9:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

isn't he like super cuttable after this season?

worst case, he blows and we move on. was certainly worth the risk.
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GBPACKMAN4LIFE


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

IrishGreen wrote:
isn't he like super cuttable after this season?

worst case, he blows and we move on. was certainly worth the risk.


Yes.

http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Julius%20Peppers&Position=34OLB&Team=packers

$5M dead money hit if we cut him after this season, thanks to the prorated $7.5M bonus. But with a potential $12M cap number, the move would save us $7M.
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Skypilot


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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

AlexGreen#20 wrote:
Skypilot wrote:
SDN40 wrote:
Signing Peppers was a risk, but a calculated one that will not upset the salary cap should it fail. I think the new position and contending team will re-energize Peppers. I thought I read somewhere that he has always wanted to give the 3-4 a shot. By all accounts, he is moving and hustling better than the younger guys. I also wonder if his declining numbers matched the declining team defense of the Bears.

Regardless, I applaud the effort at adding talent, especially with the added bonus of having almost no financial risk


They had to do something to help Mathews. Can't just wait on the injury- prone and bad fit at OLB, Nick Perry or the UDFA's like Mulumba to step up.

I've also noticed that people's acceptance of PFF depends on whether they agree with the statistical analysis of one or more of their favorite players. So, if one were to disregard their analysis of, say, the Packers ILB'ers in 2012 when Brad Jones was among the top ILB's in the league according to PFF, and they other guy wasn't, why suddenly get worried about Peppers' declining production/effectiveness?

In 2014 at least, Peppers is getting paid a lot and we should expect results. Long term risk, no, yet it's a significant short term investment.


Hard to screw up pass rushing grades.


What I like about them is they tackle every position and every play. Fans can't get away with saying 'player A' had 123 combined tackles' in 2012 and claim that proves the player had an excellent year based on a cherry=picked stat. (Morgan Burnett.) It also statically illustrates why Josh Sitton, for instance, is superior to TJ Lang (who's no slouch).
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Skypilot


Joined: 14 Dec 2013
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PostPosted: Mon Jul 14, 2014 10:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

GBPACKMAN4LIFE wrote:
IrishGreen wrote:
isn't he like super cuttable after this season?

worst case, he blows and we move on. was certainly worth the risk.


Yes.

http://overthecap.com/cap.php?Name=Julius%20Peppers&Position=34OLB&Team=packers

$5M dead money hit if we cut him after this season, thanks to the prorated $7.5M bonus. But with a potential $12M cap number, the move would save us $7M.


TT hates dead money like no other. Laughing But, yea, if he completely bombs, the Packers are fine re: cap, which is rising again every year, anyway. It's hard not to like the move to sign Peppers. On the other hand, Alex's concerns are justified and he backs it up.
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