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Rookie TE Data and Trends ('04-'13)
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cpnesdude41


Joined: 17 Jan 2008
Posts: 1574
PostPosted: Wed Jun 25, 2014 9:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

First, great post. Bravo on the time spent.

I think we should highlight three players though: Gronk, Hernendez, Graham. Now I know these guys all turned out to be top TE talents in the NFL, but I think they could provide a little bit more light considering these guys we drafted to teams with similar offenses that had great qb's, like ourselves.

In 2010 the Pats had the best offense in the league. They had Tom Brady complimented by a solid o-line and what would turn out to be a 1,000yrd rusher in the Law Firm, Green-Ellis. Wes Welker was also doing his thing that year and Deion Branch was solid as well. Gronk and Hernendez were in a great position to excel and did.

In 2010 the Saints had the 11th ranked offense. Brees, accompanied by Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Colston, Shockey, a handful of other decent recievers, and a solid o-line. Once again, Jimmy Graham, had a great opportunity and had a solid rookie season. Also it was only Grahams second year playing football***


Once again, obviously these guys are/were/became some of the best TE's in football but there is some obvious comparisons to how they entered the league and how Rodgers and Lyerla are coming in, even more-so similar to New England's 2010 season. Not trying to be too optimistic here but these guys could definitely have good, productive seasons if they seize their opportunity with this already loaded Green Bay offense.
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NCPackers_08


Joined: 29 Jan 2006
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Location: Edina, MN
PostPosted: Wed Jun 25, 2014 10:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

cpnesdude41 wrote:
First, great post. Bravo on the time spent.

I think we should highlight three players though: Gronk, Hernendez, Graham. Now I know these guys all turned out to be top TE talents in the NFL, but I think they could provide a little bit more light considering these guys we drafted to teams with similar offenses that had great qb's, like ourselves.

In 2010 the Pats had the best offense in the league. They had Tom Brady complimented by a solid o-line and what would turn out to be a 1,000yrd rusher in the Law Firm, Green-Ellis. Wes Welker was also doing his thing that year and Deion Branch was solid as well. Gronk and Hernendez were in a great position to excel and did.

In 2010 the Saints had the 11th ranked offense. Brees, accompanied by Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Colston, Shockey, a handful of other decent recievers, and a solid o-line. Once again, Jimmy Graham, had a great opportunity and had a solid rookie season. Also it was only Grahams second year playing football***


Once again, obviously these guys are/were/became some of the best TE's in football but there is some obvious comparisons to how they entered the league and how Rodgers and Lyerla are coming in, even more-so similar to New England's 2010 season. Not trying to be too optimistic here but these guys could definitely have good, productive seasons if they seize their opportunity with this already loaded Green Bay offense.


Here is their target distribution share per each player's respective teams:

Hernandez - 12.6%, 47.7% of all TE targets
Gronkowski - 11.6%, 44.0% of all TE targets
Graham - 6.5%, 28.6% of all TE targets

In perspective, the Packers targeted a TE 112 times or 19.9% of all targets. Here is how they breakdown:

Finley - 6.1%, 30.0% of all TE targets
Bostick - 2.7%, 13.4% of all TE targets
Quarless - 9.5%, 48.2% of all TE targets
Taylor - 1.6%, 8.0% of all TE targets

Not sure what is in the tea leaves, but for Gronk and A-Hern, they combined for 24.2% of all of Brady's targets in a year where only Branch and Welker had better receiving statistics than both of those guys. Graham's numbers are on par and accurate with what could be expected of a top athlete at the position. So Lyerla or Rodgers could potentially see stats similar to his in totality.

However, let's assume that Quarless, Rodgers, Bostick and Lyerla make the roster as the four best players available at the TE position. Let's also assume that 112 targets are also distributed to the TEs in 2014. I think it will be less due to a more efficient running game, more competition at WR, and less Matt Flynn-esque check downs (assuming Aaron stays healthy). But let us stick with 112. If Quarless gets the starter's share with an adjustment for his drop-off in pure talent in relation to Finley, he would receive 66 targets. (I assumed 75% of starter TE targets. 88 total in 2013 and in Finley's last full year (2012), he got 88 as well.) So now, that leaves us with 46 targets. Even if you give 15 to each with some change left over, they would only have around 2.7% of total targets or 13.4% of TE targets, individually.

The above hypothetical assumes Q is the starter and it doesn't factor-in any target stealing from the young guys. If they can force themselves on the field, then maybe they contribute. But with Nelson, Cobb, Boykin, Adams, Lacy, Starks, and Quarless competing for targets, I don't see Lyerla or Rodgers coming anywhere near the individual or combined production of Gronk or Hernandez. Graham? Maybe. But it would be up to #46 or #89 if they wanted to make that big of a splash.
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cpnesdude41


Joined: 17 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jul 01, 2014 9:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NCPackers_08 wrote:
cpnesdude41 wrote:
First, great post. Bravo on the time spent.

I think we should highlight three players though: Gronk, Hernendez, Graham. Now I know these guys all turned out to be top TE talents in the NFL, but I think they could provide a little bit more light considering these guys we drafted to teams with similar offenses that had great qb's, like ourselves.

In 2010 the Pats had the best offense in the league. They had Tom Brady complimented by a solid o-line and what would turn out to be a 1,000yrd rusher in the Law Firm, Green-Ellis. Wes Welker was also doing his thing that year and Deion Branch was solid as well. Gronk and Hernendez were in a great position to excel and did.

In 2010 the Saints had the 11th ranked offense. Brees, accompanied by Pierre Thomas, Reggie Bush, Colston, Shockey, a handful of other decent recievers, and a solid o-line. Once again, Jimmy Graham, had a great opportunity and had a solid rookie season. Also it was only Grahams second year playing football***


Once again, obviously these guys are/were/became some of the best TE's in football but there is some obvious comparisons to how they entered the league and how Rodgers and Lyerla are coming in, even more-so similar to New England's 2010 season. Not trying to be too optimistic here but these guys could definitely have good, productive seasons if they seize their opportunity with this already loaded Green Bay offense.


Here is their target distribution share per each player's respective teams:

Hernandez - 12.6%, 47.7% of all TE targets
Gronkowski - 11.6%, 44.0% of all TE targets
Graham - 6.5%, 28.6% of all TE targets

In perspective, the Packers targeted a TE 112 times or 19.9% of all targets. Here is how they breakdown:

Finley - 6.1%, 30.0% of all TE targets
Bostick - 2.7%, 13.4% of all TE targets
Quarless - 9.5%, 48.2% of all TE targets
Taylor - 1.6%, 8.0% of all TE targets

Not sure what is in the tea leaves, but for Gronk and A-Hern, they combined for 24.2% of all of Brady's targets in a year where only Branch and Welker had better receiving statistics than both of those guys. Graham's numbers are on par and accurate with what could be expected of a top athlete at the position. So Lyerla or Rodgers could potentially see stats similar to his in totality.

However, let's assume that Quarless, Rodgers, Bostick and Lyerla make the roster as the four best players available at the TE position. Let's also assume that 112 targets are also distributed to the TEs in 2014. I think it will be less due to a more efficient running game, more competition at WR, and less Matt Flynn-esque check downs (assuming Aaron stays healthy). But let us stick with 112. If Quarless gets the starter's share with an adjustment for his drop-off in pure talent in relation to Finley, he would receive 66 targets. (I assumed 75% of starter TE targets. 88 total in 2013 and in Finley's last full year (2012), he got 88 as well.) So now, that leaves us with 46 targets. Even if you give 15 to each with some change left over, they would only have around 2.7% of total targets or 13.4% of TE targets, individually.

The above hypothetical assumes Q is the starter and it doesn't factor-in any target stealing from the young guys. If they can force themselves on the field, then maybe they contribute. But with Nelson, Cobb, Boykin, Adams, Lacy, Starks, and Quarless competing for targets, I don't see Lyerla or Rodgers coming anywhere near the individual or combined production of Gronk or Hernandez. Graham? Maybe. But it would be up to #46 or #89 if they wanted to make that big of a splash
.


I follow. Tough hypothetical to call, at least til we see pads on, which has me very optimistic at this point. The competition is my main concern, this offense is seriously loaded.

We are comparing rookies here if Lyerla and/or Rodgers emerge as legitimate receiving threats I could see them getting a good amount of targets. Also the play-action pass and big play passing game should be much better this year, assuming the right guys stay healthy. Wouldn't mind seeing some deep seem stuff from either of those guys.
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