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Rookie TE Data and Trends ('04-'13)
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NCPackers_08


Joined: 29 Jan 2006
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Location: Edina, MN
PostPosted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 12:06 pm    Post subject: Rookie TE Data and Trends ('04-'13) Reply with quote

I posted this somewhere else and figured I would share it here as well...

Since I've seen a decent amount of talk about the Rookie TEs on the roster and what their anticipated production might be, I figured I would dispel a misnomer. I understand the overall general excitement of what Lyerla and Rich-Rod might bring to the team at a position we have a lot of question marks about. However, I think the excitement is a bit unfounded in the delusion of what rookie TEs offer to their teams on the field in their inagural seasons. So, being interested in seeing what the production at TE is normally for rookie TEs, I did some data searching. Here is what I found:

Research:
I used a 3-prong benchmark for inclusion in my data set. Each TE included had one or all of the following benchmark statistics: 1) at least 20 catches and/or 2) at least 250 yards receiving and/or 3) 3 TDs. I went back to 2004, so 10 NFL seasons, to generate the data. I figured 10 seasons would be enough of a range of data to include any trends at the position.

Data Entry:
36 players qualified, all ranging from 1st round picks to undrafted free agents:

2004: Ben Troupe, Chris Cooley
2005: Heath Miller, Alex Smith, Bo Scaife, Adam Bergen
2006: Owen Daniels, Tony Scheffler, Vernon Davis, Joe Klopfenstein
2007: Zach Miller, Greg Olsen
2008: John Carlson, Dustin Keller, Martellus Bennett
2009: Brandon Pettigrew, Zach Miller
2010: Aaron Hernandez, Tony Moeaki, Rob Gronkowski, Jermaine Gresham, Jimmy Graham, Andrew Quarless, Michael Hoomanawanui
2011: Lance Kendricks, Kyle Rudolph
2012: Dwayne Allen, Coby Fleener
2013: Tim Wright, Jordan Reed, Zach Ertz, Tyler Eifert, Mychal Rivera, Luke Willson, Ryan Griffin, Joseph Fauria

Data:


Analysis:
The red final numbers are simply averages of the 36 respective seasons. Granted, as you can see, very productive seasons are possible looking at seasons from a individual basis. But looking at the averages, and you have a player who puts up 371 yards on 34 catches for 3 TDs; someone who would have been drafted 92nd overall. However, taking the data a step further to truly determine what the numbers are saying, I accounted for variance with a simple standard deviation calculation for each statisical category.

- 61% of the receiving yards per individual season fell within one standard deviation away from the average season. A range of 247 yards to 496 yards (rounded). 58% of the seasons fell below the average.

- 58% of the receptions per individual season fell within one standard deviation away from the average season. A range of 22 receptions to 45 receptions (rounded). Only 47% of the seasons fell below the average.

- 66% of the TDs per individual season fell within on standard deviation away from the average season. A range of 2 TDs to 5 TDs (rounded). 61% of the seasons fell below the average.

Conclusion:
What the extended data tells me is that if you look at the average season, we should expect the primary rookie TE on this team to perform somewhere near this average. The totality of the data says that typcially, a TE would probably have less yards than the average with more receptions and less TDs. This is of course assuming that either Rich-Rod of Lyerla are on the field an aggregated amount of time equal to to the average TE included in this data. For the sake of the argument, we could assume this to be the case. If so, we are looking at one TE to produce around 35-40 receptions for 330-370 yards for 2-3 TDs.

1 - I don't think we can cut Q or depend on either Rich-Rod or Lyerla in 2014 if the data proves to be true; we will need a bump at TE production and having him on the roster might be this bump with supplemental play provided by a Bostick, Rich-Rod, or Lyerla.
2 - I think we have over-inflated what we are expecting for these rookie TEs in 2014. While one of these guys may develop into a stud, I don't see either truly bucking the trend due to a variety of factors.
3 - An argument could be made that even with the anticipated production (or relatively lack thereof), the time will be valuable moving forward past the 2014 season. With these TEs, it may be worth having them on the field with the hope their respective seasons fall somewhere above the average and even a few deviations positively away from the average.

Here's the data boys and girls; discuss!

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Edit: More data included

I went back and included ALL rookie TE data from 2004-2013. I didn't use a benchmark and these are the numbers: An average performance of 12 catches for 122 yards and 1 TD (rounded). Accounting for variance out of 151 qualifying TEs, I found:

Receptions:
- 82.78% of all qualifiers fell within one deviation from the average.
- A range of 0 to 25 receptions.
- 9.93% more qualifers fell one more deviation positively above the 1st deviation, for a toal of 92.71%.
- A range of 26 to 39 receptions.
- 11 of the "benchmark" TEs fell above the 92.71%, being in the 3rd deviation from the average or above.

Yards:
- 83.45% of all qualifiers fell within one deviation from the average.
- A range of 0 to 279 yards.
- 7.95% more qualifiers fell one more deviation positively above the 1st deviation, for a total of 91.4%.
- A range of 280 yards to 436 yards.
- 13 of the "benchmark TEs fell above the 91.4%, being in the 3rd deviation from the average or above.

TDs:
- 84.77% of all qualifiers fell within one deviation from the average.
- A range of 0 to 2 TDs.
- 9.27% more qualifiers fell one more deviation positively above the 1st deviation, for a total of 94.04%.
- A range of 3 TDs to 4 TDs.
- 9 of the "benchmark" TEs fell above the 94.04%, being in the 3rd deviation from the average or above.

Looking at the entire population of rookie TEs over the last 10 years, the chances of Lyerla or Rodgers coming close to the benchmark stats, let alone bucking the trend, are slim. Possible, but slim. Even if one of them were to be on the high end of the range in the first positive deviation, it would be a stat line of 25 receptions for 279 yards and 2 TDs. Given the history of the position, that is nothing to ignore for a 1st year TE; but it also isn't something I would hang my hat on for starter-type production at the position.
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Last edited by NCPackers_08 on Mon Jun 23, 2014 4:10 pm; edited 2 times in total
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spilltray


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 12:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't know about over inflated expectations. Even if he starts I never really expected more than 40 catches 500 yards and 4 TDs or that ball park. Just say Rodgers completes something like 350 completions.

Nelson 80 catches
Cobb 70 catches
Adams/Boykin 40 catches
Boykin/Adams 20 catches
#5 WR 15 catchs
Rodgers/Quarless 40 catches
Quarless/Rodgers 25 catches
Lacy 15 catches
Kuhn 15 catches
Other (#2 RB/#3 TE/#6 WR) 25 catches

And you've got 350. We don't need a Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski. We need someone who can contribute. If Rodgers or Lyerla can develop into more than that down the road great, but I think between Quarless and Rodgers we can get that production out of the TE position right now, and isn't that really plenty?
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NCPackers_08


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 12:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

spilltray wrote:
I don't know about over inflated expectations. Even if he starts I never really expected more than 40 catches 500 yards and 4 TDs or that ball park. Just say Rodgers completes something like 350 completions.

Nelson 80 catches
Cobb 70 catches
Adams/Boykin 40 catches
Boykin/Adams 20 catches
#5 WR 15 catchs
Rodgers/Quarless 40 catches
Quarless/Rodgers 25 catches
Lacy 15 catches
Kuhn 15 catches
Other (#2 RB/#3 TE/#6 WR) 25 catches

And you've got 350. We don't need a Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski. We need someone who can contribute. If Rodgers or Lyerla can develop into more than that down the road great, but I think between Quarless and Rodgers we can get that production out of the TE position right now, and isn't that really plenty?


In my first point in the conclusion, I basically said this. I think with Q plus some sort of supplemental contribution from a #2 TE, we will get what we need from the TE position. I simply wanted to provide the data on how rookie TEs perform to provide some sort of expectational benchmark for either Rich-Rod of Lyerla.
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blankman0021


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great post!

Honestly if our offense is hitting on all cylinders- I'd expect the TE position to look more in line with Joseph Fauria's stats. Low yards. Low receptions. Many TDs. (Fauria was not TE1 in DET FYI- so that production isn't an accurate representation of their team's TE play)

If we had our top two TE's combine for 45-60 receptions, 400-500 yards, and 10-12 TDs i'd say that they had collectively a good season. Simply put- MM writes plays for his WRs, our WR's are too good, and our QB focuses on the WRs too much to expect a dynamic season out of any of our TEs. Finley always had that potential. A couple of these guys have that future potential. I just don't see them being on the field enough, without injuries occurring, to do anything too dramatic outside of being in the redzone at the right time.
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ugLymayNe


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 12:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'll believe it when I see it when it comes to D!ck Rodgers starting. I doubt it. Who knows.

NCPackers_08 wrote:
D!ck-Rod of Lyerla.



Fixed for accuracy.
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NCPackers_08


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 12:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

blankman0021 wrote:
Great post!

Honestly if our offense is hitting on all cylinders- I'd expect the TE position to look more in line with Joseph Fauria's stats. Low yards. Low receptions. Many TDs. (Fauria was not TE1 in DET FYI- so that production isn't an accurate representation of their team's TE play)

If we had our top two TE's combine for 45-60 receptions, 400-500 yards, and 10-12 TDs i'd say that they had collectively a good season. Simply put- MM writes plays for his WRs, our WR's are too good, and our QB focuses on the WRs too much to expect a dynamic season out of any of our TEs. Finley always had that potential. A couple of these guys have that future potential. I just don't see them being on the field enough, without injuries occurring, to do anything too dramatic outside of being in the redzone at the right time.


I thought about this when compiling the data but I didn't want to get into a schematics guessing game. I only wanted to judge the production regardless of the independent factors affecting each individual's performance. Remember too, that there were veterans and others contributing to teams' TE play ahead of all these rookies. I could potentially include what percentage of each individual season was out of their team's total TE production...
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DavidatMIZZOU


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 1:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NCPackers_08 wrote:
I could potentially include what percentage of each individual season was out of their team's total TE production...


Which would probably also show the contribution that one should expect from a rookie TE.
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justo


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 2:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Do you think the numbers alone are a factor in talent evaluation if the second dude on the list was replaced before his sophomore season even kicked off?
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AlexGreen#20


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 2:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

justo wrote:
Do you think the numbers alone are a factor in talent evaluation if the second dude on the list was replaced before his sophomore season even kicked off?


It's not like Wright was actually a TE anyway. He was a WR.
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NCPackers_08


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 2:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DavidatMIZZOU wrote:
NCPackers_08 wrote:
I could potentially include what percentage of each individual season was out of their team's total TE production...


Which would probably also show the contribution that one should expect from a rookie TE.


Maybe. The finality of each player's season numbers assumes all varieties of factors that affect what to expect from a rookie TE. The numbers are a product of scheme, opportunities, etc. So the finality encompasses this. Think of the data not in a vacuum solely on the players' statistics alone but rather a looking-in view into the statistical probability of success one of our rookie TEs could have given the history of data at the position.
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NCPackers_08


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 2:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AlexGreen#20 wrote:
justo wrote:
Do you think the numbers alone are a factor in talent evaluation if the second dude on the list was replaced before his sophomore season even kicked off?


It's not like Wright was actually a TE anyway. He was a WR.


Wright was somewhat a hybrid player at the position. The Bucs were thin at the position and needed an upgrade with ASJ. I think Wright's numbers are more of being in the right place at the right time. However, there are people on this list that had certain barriers to their production. Again, the numbers show within a range what to expect from a our TEs if they play at the level of the past-TEs above the benchmarks.

They very well could produce well below these numbers too.
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svp


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 2:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I hate it when logic and facts temper my imagination.

EDIT- I enjoyed the post very much.




Put Q in the number one spot.
Rich-Rod (Bostick )in the number two and red zone plays.
Lyerla in during garbage time.
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NCPackers_08


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 4:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I went back and included ALL rookie TE data from 2004-2013. I didn't use a benchmark and these are the numbers: An average performance of 12 catches for 122 yards and 1 TD (rounded). Accounting for variance out of 151 qualifying TEs, I found:

Receptions:
- 82.78% of all qualifiers fell within one deviation from the average.
- A range of 0 to 25 receptions.
- 9.93% more qualifers fell one more deviation positively above the 1st deviation, for a toal of 92.71%.
- A range of 26 to 39 receptions.
- 11 of the "benchmark" TEs fell above the 92.71%, being in the 3rd deviation from the average or above.


Yards:
- 83.45% of all qualifiers fell within one deviation from the average.
- A range of 0 to 279 yards.
- 7.95% more qualifiers fell one more deviation positively above the 1st deviation, for a total of 91.4%.
- A range of 280 yards to 436 yards.
- 13 of the "benchmark TEs fell above the 91.4%, being in the 3rd deviation from the average or above.

TDs:
- 84.77% of all qualifiers fell within one deviation from the average.
- A range of 0 to 2 TDs.
- 9.27% more qualifiers fell one more deviation positively above the 1st deviation, for a total of 94.04%.
- A range of 3 TDs to 4 TDs.
- 9 of the "benchmark" TEs fell above the 94.04%, being in the 3rd deviation from the average or above.

Looking at the entire population of rookie TEs over the last 10 years, the chances of Lyerla or Rodgers coming close to the benchmark stats, let alone bucking the trend, are slim. Possible, but slim. Even if one of them were to be on the high end of the range in the first positive deviation, it would be a stat line of 25 receptions for 279 yards and 2 TDs. Given the history of the position, that is nothing to ignore for a 1st year TE; but it also isn't something I would hang my hat on for starter-type production at the position.

I'll be adding this to the first post as well.
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MNPackfan32


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 23, 2014 9:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The sad story of the hometown kid John Carlson.... What could have been....

Never had a QB his entire career. Too bad MN threw so much money at him to be a #2 TE. Proved he was still good last year IMO. Just never used right and never in a good situation.
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BobSacamano


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 25, 2014 1:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good thing Bostick isn't a rookie. Cool
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