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Contract forecast: Jordy Nelson
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Skypilot


Joined: 14 Dec 2013
Posts: 998
PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 11:01 am    Post subject: Contract forecast: Jordy Nelson Reply with quote

Spotrac's Extension Prediction: 4 years, $43,950,000
Average Salary: $10,987,500
Guaranteed Money: $21,579,450


Contract Forecast: Jordy Nelson
By: Michael GinnittiPosted: June 5, 2014

Many feel the 4 year $12.6 million contract Jordy Nelson signed with the Packers in 2011 is still one of the best value (or biggest ripoff) deals in the game currently. Well that value may soon be coming to end in Green Bay as the 6 year wide receiver is entering a contract year, and reports are swirling that the two sides have indeed begun talks to extend his tenure as Packer.

http://www.spotrac.com/premium/research/nfl/contract-forecast-jordy-nelson-458/
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blueswedeshoes


Joined: 08 Jun 2011
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 11:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I can think of four or five separate occasions last year when Jordy made a catch that made me say, "THAT catch just cost us another million dollars."

I suspect now I will have four or five occasions to say, "COME ON, JORDY! For crying out loud you get paid ten mil per to make that catch."
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AtariB20


Joined: 07 Feb 2008
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 12:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was thinking something like 4 yr 32 mil. Front load it so he is making 10-8-8-6 throughout the 4 years. If it's going to take 4 years 36 mil I would still really want it front loaded. Don't want to be paying a 34 yr old WR 10+/yr
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Brad Gluckman


Joined: 02 Jul 2008
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 12:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Most would agree that Jordy's last contract underpaid him.

I'm assuming his agent will use this during these negotiations to get a higher contract this time around.

TT will only pay Jordy for production that he expects in the future.

Could this be a sticking point?
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GBPACKMAN4LIFE


Joined: 17 Dec 2007
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Location: Spokane, WA
PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 12:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wrote this for ProFootballRumors a while back:

http://www.profootballrumors.com/extension-candidate-jordy-nelson/

Quote:
Nelson’s not exactly old — he’ll turn 29 in a week — but the Packers have recently shown a willingness to walk away from wide receivers who might have seen their best years in the rear view. Case in point, Greg Jennings, whom the Packers let walk after seven incredibly productive seasons. Jennings got his payday in Minnesota, signing a five-year deal with a maximum value of $47.5MM ($18MM guaranteed).

After next season, Nelson will have been in Green Bay seven years, just like Jennings. Both are former second-round picks who were locked up to team-friendly deals in the midst of their rookie contracts.


Unlike Jennings, I think a deal gets done with Nelson. I think the AAV will come in over $10M/year.
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NCPackers_08


Joined: 29 Jan 2006
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Location: Edina, MN
PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 12:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

GBPACKMAN4LIFE wrote:
I wrote this for ProFootballRumors a while back:

http://www.profootballrumors.com/extension-candidate-jordy-nelson/

Quote:
Nelson’s not exactly old — he’ll turn 29 in a week — but the Packers have recently shown a willingness to walk away from wide receivers who might have seen their best years in the rear view. Case in point, Greg Jennings, whom the Packers let walk after seven incredibly productive seasons. Jennings got his payday in Minnesota, signing a five-year deal with a maximum value of $47.5MM ($18MM guaranteed).

After next season, Nelson will have been in Green Bay seven years, just like Jennings. Both are former second-round picks who were locked up to team-friendly deals in the midst of their rookie contracts.


Unlike Jennings, I think a deal gets done with Nelson. I think the AAV will come in over $10M/year.


Personally, at this stage in his career relative to where Jennings was, I think Nelson is head-and-shoulders a better receiver. I don't see how we let him walk or test the market.
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mxr124


Joined: 30 Dec 2009
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Location: Dubuque, Ia.
PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 12:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't read too much into what TT did in the past with Jennings and Jones. If we didn't have Nelson and Cobb already, we very well may have signed them both. We just couldn't keep them all. It really was an embarrassment of riches at WR a couple of years ago. Nelson and Cobb will be back.
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NCPackers_08


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 12:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just doing a number comparison of their first six years in GB:



While Jennings does have the upperhand in cumulative statistics, I think there is an argument to made about Jordy's lack of opportunities earlier in his career.

Jennings, Jones, and Driver were all easily ahead of Jordy on the depth chart when Jordy first was on the roster. Verses when Jennings first came in to the league in 06, he was immediately thrust into a WR2/WR3 role. While Jennings clearly has better stats through his duration, I think Jordy's projected production moving forward is arguably higher in value than Jennings' was when he walked in Free Agency.
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gizmo2012


Joined: 11 Mar 2007
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 2:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Skypilot - I think you are pretty close but I suspect slightly high.
I predict just under or just over 40 million, and yes the Packers will resign Jordy Nelson. Whatever Jordy's contract is worth I suspect Cobb's will be about 10% less because he has not quite established himself at theh same level that Jordy has.
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Jsitton71#


Joined: 25 Nov 2010
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PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 5:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Give Nelson the Marshall deal, Cobb the Cruz deal.
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NCPackFan


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 6:31 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AtariB20 wrote:
I was thinking something like 4 yr 32 mil. Front load it so he is making 10-8-8-6 throughout the 4 years. If it's going to take 4 years 36 mil I would still really want it front loaded. Don't want to be paying a 34 yr old WR 10+/yr


I'm on board with that. Let him make 3-4 mil. a year afterwards. He'll understand that he's older so I'm sure he'll take the Donald Driver route and keep playing in GB for less money.
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GreenGold12


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 06, 2014 8:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jsitton71# wrote:
Give Nelson the Marshall deal, Cobb the Cruz deal.


Perfect.
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blankman0021


Joined: 02 May 2007
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 07, 2014 1:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

GreenGold12 wrote:
Jsitton71# wrote:
Give Nelson the Marshall deal, Cobb the Cruz deal.


Perfect.


Not to deviate too much... But I'm just scared Cobb will push for Harvin money. I really wish Seattle didn't give that kid that deal. I think Cobb pushes for 10+per year. Hopefully the cap goes up enough to support it.
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smetana34


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 07, 2014 1:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why does everyone assume Cobb is going to get some huge deal? He's had one good year out of 3. Yes, his first season was limited snaps and he was injured last season, but no way has he shown he's worth more than 5 or 6 per
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Jsitton71#


Joined: 25 Nov 2010
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 07, 2014 5:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

smetana34 wrote:
Why does everyone assume Cobb is going to get some huge deal? He's had one good year out of 3. Yes, his first season was limited snaps and he was injured last season, but no way has he shown he's worth more than 5 or 6 per
Exactly, while the kid does have the potential to be a 10 mil guy, to me he just hasn't shown enough to warrant that type of deal.

Nelson on the other hand has shown he's worth every penny. Look no further than the Chicago game. Nelsons ability to tightrope the sideline and make those tough catches is a thing a beauty. That's not Cobbs game as of yet he needs to perfect that part of his game. I think if you extend him now you'll get a bargain. I think the Cruz deal is fair for him he'll live up to that contract.

But if TT tries to lowball him like Nelson and Jones he's likely gone. Nelson is a complete receiver there's no holes in his game and deserves to get paid.
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