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The Vikings 2014 offense under Norv Turner
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How will the 2014 Vikings offense compare to last year?
Much better
37%
 37%  [ 17 ]
Better
53%
 53%  [ 24 ]
More or less the same
8%
 8%  [ 4 ]
Worse
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Much worse
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Total Votes : 45

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Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
Posts: 2237
PostPosted: Fri May 30, 2014 10:38 am    Post subject: The Vikings 2014 offense under Norv Turner Reply with quote

Stats on the 2013 edition:
Arrow Scored 391 points. 24.4 per game (14th). That includes 3 special teams TDs and 1 defensive TD, but the league average was ~4 non-offensive TDs per team
Arrow Gained 5508 yards (13th) on 1013 plays (22nd), 5.4 yards/play (12th), 32 turnovers (28th), 309 first downs (19th)
Arrow Passing: 3427 yards (23rd), 6.7 YPA (23rd), 5.8 NY/A (21st), 18 TDs (27th), 19 INTs (20th)
Arrow Rushing: 2081 yards (8th), 4.9 YPA (2nd), 23 TDs (1st)
Arrow DVOA (where 0% is average): Total offense DVOA -4.7% (21st), passing DVOA -8.3% (23rd), rushing DVOA 5.8% (8th)

2013 Drive stats, from Football Outsiders:
Arrow 30.46 yards/drive (15th)
Arrow 1.92 points/drive (15th)
Arrow 5.46 plays/drive (26th)
Arrow 2:23 TOP/drive (28th)
Arrow 0.675 "drive success rate" (19th)
Arrow 0.216 TDs/drive (14th)
Arrow 0.242 3-and-outs/drive (19th)
Arrow 0.153 turnovers/drive (27th)
Arrow 4.65 points/red zone drive (22nd)
Arrow 0.521 TDs/red zone drive (19th)

Bottom line: very effective running game, mediocre but not terrible passing game, adequate scoring, lots of explosive plays, too many turnovers, not enough time of possession

...

Some links and quotes about Norv Turner's offense.

Arif Hasan's epic "Norv Turner, the Chinese Room and Israeli Prisons"

Quote:
Aside from a quarterback, Air Coryell offenses typically had a few elements: 1) A tall receiver who can win downfield 2) A fullback who could catch, lead block and act as a pass protector 3) A short-yardage running back 4) A pass-protecting offensive line that can keep a pocket for seven-step drops and 5) A pass-catching tight end that can attack the seam.


...

In early stages of Norv Turner's system, it's about QB's photo memory

Quote:
The major philosophical change from the Vikings' previous west-coast offenses replaces the relatively short, high-percentage completions with Turner's aim to stretch the field in deep vertical routes that are all about "being in the right place at the right time," which can prove more difficult to execute for quarterbacks than the team's previous systems.

In these early stages of the NFL's "no-contact" offseason, the Vikings have made passing their main focus as fullback Jerome Felton said they've mainly practiced in the "11" personnel: three receivers, one tight end and one running back.

...

Three basic premises make up Turner's offense: (1) a vertical passing game, (2) adequate pass protection for 5- to 7-step dropbacks and (3) a power running game - even with the often-used three-receiver sets. One of the most intriguing factors will be how Adrian Peterson is used by Turner, who has coached some of the NFL's greatest backs in Emmitt Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson and Frank Gore.

Though Turner picked up the offense during his first NFL gig with the Los Angeles Rams in the late 1980s, the creator, Coryell, was also a pioneer of the I-formation more than twenty years prior.

But like with any system, Turner altered that power running game to play off his vertical passing and fit the style of offense he wanted. As he did with Smith, Tomlinson and even Mike Tolbert in San Diego, Turner executed the half-back draw, as well as screens, after softening up defensive fronts.

Turner wants to get Peterson more involved in the passing game, but that's also a way to spread the defense out - aside from the bevy of motion sets and receiver splits - to pave the way for Peterson.

"The thing I love about this system - it's developed over the years," Turner said. "Everywhere I've been, we've added something new to it based on the coaches I've worked with. So I think what you do is find out what players do best and take the parts of that system that fit them and emphasize those the longer you're together."

Though many NFL teams have adopted the safer dink-and-dunk style approach, Turner hasn't wavered in his downfield attack -- especially as today's NFL rules have changed to help facilitate the passing game.

However, the high-risk, high-reward system needs the right talent. The pieces are in place at receiver with Cordarrelle Patterson and Greg Jennings, both formidable deep threats that have thrived on seam and 'go' routes before. But Turner didn't succeed in Dallas without Aikman, nor in San Diego without Philip Rivers. Mike Martz, who learned from Turner in the late 90s, wouldn't have created the "Greatest Show On Turf" using the Coryell system in St. Louis without Kurt Warner in his prime.

Bridgewater's development should play a crucial role in how early the Vikings reap the benefits of Turner's schematics while Kyle Rudolph is in the final year of his contract and before Adrian Peterson turns 30 next March.

"We've had a lot of young players come in learn it and play at a high level," Turner said. "I think that early it helps them, but they can't depend on the digits. They have to work hard, learn the concepts and understand what each play is trying to develop."


...

Solving the vertical passing game with Teddy Bridgewater

Quote:
There’s a natural assumption that when we talk about the vertical passing game, we’re automatically defaulting to an Air Coryell system in which everyone is running go routes all the time. In truth, the ability to consistently and efficiently complete deep passes against modern NFL defenses is perhaps the hardest thing to do in any sport. In Turner’s case, and as Greg Cosell of NFL Films and ESPN’s NFL Matchup recently told me, play-action gets the ball rolling.

Norv’s offenses have always started with the run game. It works off that, and the passing game has been more intermediate to vertical. He effectively uses play action, and historically, his receivers have tended to average, by NFL standards, higher yards per catch.

In addition, Turner doesn’t automatically retrofit his offense to whoever he has — any successful coach will tailor his preferences and tendencies to what his players can and can’t do.

...

According to Cosell, Turner works so well with quarterbacks for two primary reasons — he creates route concepts that work optimally against specific defenses, and he limits option anxiety in the playbook.

“One of the main things — and if you talk to coaches just in general — is that when you eliminate the gray areas in the passing game, and make the reads defined, the ball can come out in rhythm....”

Going back to his days with the Cowboys, Turner has preferred the kinds of route combinations that blur the lines of coverage against zone defenses, and force difficult expanded matchups when dealing with man coverage.


...

Questions then about this year:

Arrow Can the offense move the ball and score points?
Arrow Can the offense minimize turnovers and sustain drives?
Arrow When will Bridgewater start? Will he be effective throwing downfield?
Arrow Will Patterson develop as a vertical threat? If not, who's the vertical threat?
Arrow Will Jennings be more productive this year?
Arrow Will Rudolph fulfill his promise as a pass catching TE?
Arrow Will Peterson be just as effective running mostly out of single back formations?
Arrow Will the OL hold up in pass protection for deep drops and vertical routes?
Arrow Will the OL produce movement in the power rushing game from spread formations?
Arrow Will McKinnon and/or Peterson be effective at moving the chains as receivers?
Arrow Will Patterson be used effectively as a space player / offensive weapon?


Last edited by Krauser on Sat May 31, 2014 12:48 am; edited 1 time in total
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Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
Posts: 2237
PostPosted: Fri May 30, 2014 4:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Arif on AP in Turner's system: http://cover32.com/vikings/2014/05/30/how-will-norv-turners-system-affect-adrian-peterson/

Quote:
Norv Turner only passes slightly more than the average offensive coordinator, ranking as the 76th-most “pass happy” coach of the 252 coaches and offensive coordinators that Stuart cataloged.


Quote:
Measured against years they had at least 250 touches, running backs often had their greatest seasons in yards per touch with Turner than without:

Code:
RB                    High Y/T w/ Norv   |High Y/T w/o Norv
Frank Gore                        5.8   5.4
LaDainian Tomlinson               5.7   5.8
Ryan Mathews                      5.7   4.6
Emmitt Smith                      5.6   4.9
Ricky Williams                     5.2   5
Terry Allen                        5.0   5.3


In total, running backs averaged 4.8 yards per touch with Turner and 4.5 yards per touch without him.


Quote:
For every year that Turner has had a “bellcow” running back—one with usually 250 carries in the season—he’s had at least three receptions a game for his primary backs in all but three years: two with Terry Allen and one with Amos Zereoue. On average, the primary backs have averaged 3.3 receptions a game (or 52.8 a season).

Once you eliminate years that those running backs split significant time with pass-catching specialists (Mitchell and Sproles), they average 3.7 receptions a game (59.2 a season).


Quote:
[Peterson's] improvement in pass protection will also allow him to see the field more on third down and in passing situations—he’s never been the best, but he’s gradually improved his pass blocking efficiency from around league worst (60th of 61) in 2007 to average in 2012 and 2013 (46th of 63 and 29th of 54, respectively) per Pro Football Focus’ pass blocking efficiency metrics.


Hasan is predicting Peterson will play on most 3rd downs, since McKinnon is a project, and his pass blocking has improved (which isn't surprising -- also, Turner's said they won't ask the RBs to block DEs and OLBs but help out with interior protection).

He thinks Peterson will get 3-4 receptions per game (~50 for the season, his career high is 43, he had 29 last year) for 400 yards receiving (last year he had 171).

He thinks AP will get 1500 yards rushing on 18 carries per game (last year he had 20), on a higher YPA (better than his lifetime 5.0).

That would be a total of 1900 yards from scrimmage, his 2nd highest ever total, ahead of 2008 and behind only 2012.
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ArcticNorseman


Joined: 06 Mar 2005
Posts: 2284
Location: Fairbanks, Alaska
PostPosted: Fri May 30, 2014 6:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have to say this about what I expect from the offense this year:

1. Don't kill drives -- too many stupid penalties at the wrong time, too many missed blocks on passing downs, too many TOs by the QBs.

2. Control the clock -- time of possession was horrible last year -- reason? See #1.

3. Confidence -- No matter who they put behind center, this team needed last half of last year to see Patterson, Jennings, Rudolph and Peterson work . . . now they have that off their shoulders. The QBs last year were skittish to say the least, so fixing LG should improve the line and help solidfy the QB's pocket. Oh, and Adrian will be used out of the backfield a lot more . . . imagine 3 WR sets with Rudolph stealing a LB or safety . . . who covers AP out of the backfield? I like those odds.

In the end, I expect the offense to be a top-10 unit, with a QB who stastically ranks in the Top 15 as far as yardage, completion percentage, yrd/att, TDs etc., and has very few turnovers (so, in the top-8 of taking care of the ball.)

The fact is, DEPENDING on O-LINE PLAY (not QB play), this team actually has skill position players (other than QB) to rival the best in the NFL. Add in the QB consideration -- because it is important -- a QB that utilizes these talents and commands that huddle, well, he's on the way to the Pro-Bowl.

More importantly, this offense has the pieces in place, that if they remain healthy all year . . . we could see a resurgence of deep playoff runs.

Oh, I am well aware the offense did not cost the team 4 or 5 games last year like the defense did . . . this year, I hope they gel enough to put up double digit leads in the 4th quarter so the defense can go into attack mode . . . not prevent mode.
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Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
Posts: 2237
PostPosted: Fri May 30, 2014 7:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

They'll need a top 15 QB to be a top 10 offense, I think. Bridgewater's the best bet there, especially for limiting turnovers.

Time of possession was bad last year for several reasons, one of them good: they were top 5 in the league in plays gaining 20+ yards. That wasn't all the rushing game, they were 4th in long runs and 9th in long passes.

One of the advantages of running more from spread formations this year is that it should make it easier for Peterson to avoid getting stuffed for no gain or negative yardage. A couple of games last year were tilted by a series of 2 yard or less gains on 1st and 2nd down, particularly the loss in Chicago. The tighter formations they've used the last few years have led to boom or bust production from Peterson -- when he busts through the line he can run forever, but there are way too many defenders keying on the backfield, so many plays get blown up before they get started. I'd very happily trade that for a series of 7-9 yard gains, like you see the Broncos get when they're rolling.

For LG I'd really like to see Yankey win the starting job. Might be lacking in strength at this point but his ability to get to the second level and make reads in terms of picking up rushers would go a long way to fitting in between Sullivan and Kalil and improving the pass protection.
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Klomp


Joined: 11 Aug 2011
Posts: 7313
PostPosted: Sat May 31, 2014 12:22 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Krauser wrote:
They'll need a top 15 QB to be a top 10 offense, I think.


Last year we were 13th in total offense and tied for 14th in scoring offense. Not as big of a jump as you might think.
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Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
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PostPosted: Sat May 31, 2014 12:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Klomp wrote:
Krauser wrote:
They'll need a top 15 QB to be a top 10 offense, I think.


Last year we were 13th in total offense and tied for 14th in scoring offense. Not as big of a jump as you might think.


I was thinking of efficiency stats, not total yards and points (which exclude turnovers, ignore their struggles to sustain drives, and give too much credit for the field position advantage they enjoyed from Patterson returning kickoffs).

I think the most diagnostic numbers of those stats are DVOA (21st) and DSR (19th) -- Vikings offense was ~20th in the league in overall quality IMO.

Top 10 offenses in 2013 by DVOA:
1. Denver
2. SD
3. Philadephia
4. NE
5. NO
6. Chicago
7. Seattle
8. SF
9. GB
10. Carolina

I don't think the Vikings offense was anywhere near that level of quality last year, even if they did have more points and/or yards than some of the teams on that list.

To get to that level, they'll need significantly better QB play than last year (among other changes/improvements).

For the purposes of the poll, I'd say:

Much better = ~10th or better
Better = ~15th
More or the less the same = ~20th
Worse = ~25th
Much worse = ~30th or worse

...as ranked by efficiency stats like DVOA.
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Sir Fobos


Joined: 12 Dec 2010
Posts: 234
Location: Idaho
PostPosted: Sat May 31, 2014 4:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Vikes lost a lot of games last season in the final minutes of regulation because the defense allowed scoring drives - after the Vikes offense went 3-and-out with the lead and only a minute or two of time remaining. The defense couldn't close out games, and the offense couldn't convert one or two first downs when it mattered most. I'm sure many would disagree, but IMO the offense was just as responsible for those losses as the defense.

Having said that, the significant differences in the offense for the upcoming season are on the coaching staff. The scheme/playcalling will be robust and effective and the coaching should be improved. Players will probably be utilized more appropriately, and playing time will be earned. I think this team will be mentally tough and display more intensity, especially late in games.

These changes alone will yield significant improvement, but there might be even more factors in play. There may be contributions from the most recent rookie class - namely Yankey. If Yankey can wrestle the starting LG spot by performing better than Johnson, the Oline will have plugged a gaping hole and the offense will experience more success in the trenches. That would be huge for whichever QB wins the starting job (I think Cassell holds the edge over Ponder, and Bridgewater will likely sit a year as the #3 guy.)

Overall it's difficult to see this offense get worse with a similar cast and better coaching. I think there will be significant improvement, but QB play will likely keep the Vikes from having a top notch offense until Bridgewater takes the reigns and lives up to bis potential.
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UpperDecker30


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 04, 2014 1:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I went with better, hoping to see them jump into the top 15 if Teddy is the week 1 starter.

One thing that I would love to see Turner do would be a 2 TE set with Rudolph and Leonard (hoping he makes the team), Jennings and Patterson at WR, and McKinnon at RB. That kind of grouping could be a match up nightmare.
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The Gnat


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 04, 2014 1:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm going with better. Let's face it, the Vikings issues were defense last year, the offense wasn't too bad. But they definitely can improve for the weapons they have and using Patterson throughout the whole season.
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Snake Plissken


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 04, 2014 2:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think slightly better on the stat sheet and better on the field. Cassel or Bridgewater will bring more consistency to the QB position, the o line should improve as I expect each player to remain or improve, the receiver group should be at least as good as last year, and AP should still be AP.

An improved defense should also give the offense a few more reps.
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VikeManDan


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 04, 2014 2:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I voted better. More consistent QB (hopefully Teddy) play will help with the efficiency of our offense.

Last edited by VikeManDan on Wed Jun 04, 2014 3:57 pm; edited 1 time in total
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since72


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 04, 2014 3:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cassel said on KFAN this morning that Norv was one of the main reasons he re-signed with the Vikings. He said they are being pushed hard; on and off the field.
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 04, 2014 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

since72 wrote:
Cassel said on KFAN this morning that Norv was one of the main reasons he re-signed with the Vikings. He said they are being pushed hard; on and off the field.

There is pushing?!?

So anti-this era NFL.
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disaacs


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 04, 2014 4:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I bet they are being pushed...I've heard that Norv's playbooks are one of the thickest in the NFL, so they're probably up late every night reading. Wink
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skywindO2


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PostPosted: Wed Jun 04, 2014 6:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

rpmwr19 wrote:
since72 wrote:
Cassel said on KFAN this morning that Norv was one of the main reasons he re-signed with the Vikings. He said they are being pushed hard; on and off the field.

There is pushing?!?

So anti-this era NFL.

Heard there may even be some shoving going on too. Hopefully the NFLPA doesn't find out about it.
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