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ForteOz


Joined: 03 Sep 2013
Posts: 703
PostPosted: Thu Mar 27, 2014 12:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Madmike90 wrote:
WindyCity wrote:
Madmike90 wrote:
AZBearsFan wrote:
Madmike90 wrote:
Signing Allen changes nothing when it comes to our needs IMO…we still shouldn’t be going into next season with a starting DT combination of Paea & Ratliff…we still badly need talent on that Dline especially inside and if there is a DE with talent on the board in the 2nd we should still try and grab him…Allen is a bandage…nothing more.

We added 3 DEs on top of Bass who the team seemingly likes and Washington who showed nothing last year but probably gets a shot to show something this year. We can probably use another a young DE but it's not a 2014 or 2015 immediate need so a late rounder is probably all we get there IMO. There's a good chance a rookie DE wouldn't even be active on game day as we are presently constructed. Also, I'd be fine with Ratliff/Paea/Collins/Jones at DT for us with Houston and possibly Izzy also taking DT reps on passing downs.





I fully expect Houston to line up inside at DT every time we play nickel D…which last year was over 50% of the time…Allen will start at RE then you have Young or Bass rotating in at DE on 3rd down…those two aren’t talented enough to pass on a quality DE if they are just sitting there in the 2nd round IMO…DT wise we would have an often injured Stephen Paea…an often injured Jay Ratliff…a returning from an ACL Nate Collins…a rookie…and Israel Idonije who is more of a DE…now as I said I expect Houston will line up inside quite a bit but if that is our DT depth I would expect him to have to slide inside full time by the mid-way point of the season…

I can see the argument for not taking a DE in the 2nd round if there is a comparable talent at CB or S but we badly need DT help.


I agree we need depth.

But we are talking about needing STARTERS at safety. What happens when Paea gets injured? Better question is what happens when no one gets injured at safety because we are already starting 2 backups?

What happens if Tillman goes down? Give me Izzy or Houston at DT before Hayden at CB. As crazy as this is we have better depth at DL than at any secondary position.

Let's say we draft Donald, which I would over Clinton-Dix. Houston is not going inside anymore, which means Youngs reps go down. There are not a ton of reps left on the DL if Houston is taking 3rd downs at DT.

Bass showed enough not to be replaced right away with a high pick.

God add in their obsession with making McClellin less of a bust and we may be looking at even fewer pass rush reps.


Conte & Mundy are not backup quality safeties if they have a good pass rush in front of them…Emery has already came out and said he wants Conte to compete for a starting job and hopes to be talking about an extension with him come the end of next season…Conte isn’t anywhere near as bad as he played last year…the guy was asked to do way too much in every aspect of the game because the front seven flat out sucked…if Conte can get back to playing at the level he did in his first two seasons he is more than serviceable…

Also drafting Donald doesn’t stop Houston moving inside at all…it also doesn’t cut down on Young’s snaps either…in nickel situations you have Allen & Young at DE with Donald & Houston inside…that is a Dline that can really pressure a QB which is more helpful to a defence than anything else.


Exactly. People weren't complaining about Conte and Wright until our front 7 COLLAPSED entirely. Obviously, those guys need to be *able* to do their job, but the team has to put them in a position to succeed as well. A dominant front 7, starting with the line, puts any safety in a better position to succeed.

Windy said earlier in the thread that "we can't over invest in the line" and I have to agree. There is no such thing. Smile

With all that said, would I be disappointed if the Bears took a safety in the 1st? Nope, not if the fit is right. I just don't think these FA acquisitions have taken us out of the market for a 1st or 2nd round DT.
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Mudderfudder77


Joined: 14 Jan 2005
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 27, 2014 12:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ForteOz wrote:


Exactly. People weren't complaining about Conte and Wright until our front 7 COLLAPSED entirely. Obviously, those guys need to be *able* to do their job, but the team has to put them in a position to succeed as well. A dominant front 7, starting with the line, puts any safety in a better position to succeed.

Windy said earlier in the thread that "we can't over invest in the line" and I have to agree. There is no such thing. Smile

With all that said, would I be disappointed if the Bears took a safety in the 1st? Nope, not if the fit is right. I just don't think these FA acquisitions have taken us out of the market for a 1st or 2nd round DT.


Agree 100% with your post and especially the last paragraph. I wouldn't be upset if HHCD was the pick - but I don't think we are out of the market for continuing to strengthen the DL. Even if that means spending the 14th pick on it.

It would not surprise me one bit if we left camp with Mundy and Conte as the starting safeties.
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ForteOz


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 27, 2014 12:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

G08 wrote:
GOGRIESE wrote:
G08 wrote:
Phil did make a comment about how much offensive talent will be on the board at #14...


Who are we going to draft a center? Because nobody on the right side needs replacing. Bushrod and Slauson are locked up long term.


I wouldn't be stunned if Eric Ebron was there and we took him. Not in the slightest.


I would be stunned if our first pick is not a defensive player.

I mean, we have had a hard time predicting *who* Emery would take, but we've at least had a good idea on the position. We all figured the McClellin pick would be a DE, and we all figured the Long pick would be an OL.
Everything about this offseason has been about addressing our defense, just like everything about last offseason was about addressing our offense.

Another good TE just seems like such a luxury considering the needs we still have unaddressed on D.
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G08


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 27, 2014 12:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm trying like hell to love Ha Ha but I just can't seem to do it. He doesn't scream elite to me from what I have seen. Don't care much for him in run support either (not that it really matters, I like him as a single high playing centerfield).
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WindyCity wrote:
McClellin is simply not very good. He is not big enough or strong enough to play at the NFL level. The Bears should move on.
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topwop1


Joined: 08 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 27, 2014 1:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ForteOz wrote:
G08 wrote:
GOGRIESE wrote:
G08 wrote:
Phil did make a comment about how much offensive talent will be on the board at #14...


Who are we going to draft a center? Because nobody on the right side needs replacing. Bushrod and Slauson are locked up long term.


I wouldn't be stunned if Eric Ebron was there and we took him. Not in the slightest.


I would be stunned if our first pick is not a defensive player.

I mean, we have had a hard time predicting *who* Emery would take, but we've at least had a good idea on the position. We all figured the McClellin pick would be a DE, and we all figured the Long pick would be an OL.
Everything about this offseason has been about addressing our defense, just like everything about last offseason was about addressing our offense.

Another good TE just seems like such a luxury considering the needs we still have unaddressed on D.


Agreed. While having a guy like Ebron would be awesome I think the offense will be perfectly fine with Bennett and Rosario for another year. Perhaps drafting a developmental TE in the later rounds is in the cards.

It's all about defense for me. That was the team's Achilles heal last season and there needs to be a mass infusion of youthful talent added there.
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Mudderfudder77


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 27, 2014 1:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

G08 wrote:
I'm trying like hell to love Ha Ha but I just can't seem to do it. He doesn't scream elite to me from what I have seen. Don't care much for him in run support either (not that it really matters, I like him as a single high playing centerfield).



Nope. None of these safeties scream elite to me. There is a group of 5 that I would be happy to see come in and compete for a starting spot, but none of them are can't miss prospects to me.
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G08


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 27, 2014 2:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Donald/Hageman in the first and any of Ward/Bucannon/Brooks/Reynolds somewhere in the draft would be okay with me.
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WindyCity wrote:
McClellin is simply not very good. He is not big enough or strong enough to play at the NFL level. The Bears should move on.
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DaMike


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 27, 2014 2:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Calvin Pryor is the only safety worth a 2nd round pick in this draft. He probably won't be there though. Emery might like Brooks but we need to wait until round 3 so we can get some value out of the pick.
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MonserinNC


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 27, 2014 3:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DaMike wrote:
Calvin Pryor is the only safety worth a 2nd round pick in this draft. He probably won't be there though. Emery might like Brooks but we need to wait until round 3 so we can get some value out of the pick.


The older I get the less I understand reaches/steals in the draft.......

Like, we got Lance Briggs in the 3rd....not sure what difference it made what round we got him in, haha, in most cases it seems like we just use it as an excuse to complain about the Haynes Grossman picks.

If in that draft we did Tillman in the first and Briggs in the second, not sure what difference it would of made if we "reached" on both of those rounds
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DaMike


Joined: 21 Nov 2010
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 27, 2014 3:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MonserinNC wrote:
DaMike wrote:
Calvin Pryor is the only safety worth a 2nd round pick in this draft. He probably won't be there though. Emery might like Brooks but we need to wait until round 3 so we can get some value out of the pick.


The older I get the less I understand reaches/steals in the draft.......

Like, we got Lance Briggs in the 3rd....not sure what difference it made what round we got him in, haha, in most cases it seems like we just use it as an excuse to complain about the Haynes Grossman picks.

If in that draft we did Tillman in the first and Briggs in the second, not sure what difference it would of made if we "reached" on both of those rounds
We also took Brandon Hardin in the 3rd and Shea McClellin in the 1st. Ask Ozzie Newson if going value can lead to successful drafting.
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Mudderfudder77


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 27, 2014 3:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DaMike wrote:
We also took Brandon Hardin in the 3rd and Shea McClellin in the 1st. Ask Ozzie Newson if going value can lead to successful drafting.


McClellin was going in the first - whether we took him or not. Hardin was out of left field.
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DaMike


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 27, 2014 4:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mudderfudder77 wrote:
DaMike wrote:
We also took Brandon Hardin in the 3rd and Shea McClellin in the 1st. Ask Ozzie Newson if going value can lead to successful drafting.


McClellin was going in the first - whether we took him or not. Hardin was out of left field.
Shea was a huge reach as a 4-3 DE.
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Mudderfudder77


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 27, 2014 4:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DaMike wrote:
Mudderfudder77 wrote:
DaMike wrote:
We also took Brandon Hardin in the 3rd and Shea McClellin in the 1st. Ask Ozzie Newson if going value can lead to successful drafting.


McClellin was going in the first - whether we took him or not. Hardin was out of left field.
Shea was a huge reach as a 4-3 DE.



Maybe - but that's more on talent evaluation than it is on player value. Shea was a first round player, even if he ended up as a bust, as that's where teams were prepared to draft him.
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DaMike


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 27, 2014 4:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Mudderfudder77 wrote:
DaMike wrote:
Mudderfudder77 wrote:
DaMike wrote:
We also took Brandon Hardin in the 3rd and Shea McClellin in the 1st. Ask Ozzie Newson if going value can lead to successful drafting.


McClellin was going in the first - whether we took him or not. Hardin was out of left field.
Shea was a huge reach as a 4-3 DE.



Maybe - but that's more on talent evaluation than it is on player value. Shea was a first round player, even if he ended up as a bust, as that's where teams were prepared to draft him.
Who cares though? That's the same nonsense with people saying Hageman is a first round pick NT. He's not and Shea wasn't worth a first round pick as a DE. We need to draft a top talent at a position of need that has the skillset to succeed at that position. Enough of this square peg round hole nonsense.
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ForteOz


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PostPosted: Thu Mar 27, 2014 4:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MonserinNC wrote:
DaMike wrote:
Calvin Pryor is the only safety worth a 2nd round pick in this draft. He probably won't be there though. Emery might like Brooks but we need to wait until round 3 so we can get some value out of the pick.


The older I get the less I understand reaches/steals in the draft.......

Like, we got Lance Briggs in the 3rd....not sure what difference it made what round we got him in, haha, in most cases it seems like we just use it as an excuse to complain about the Haynes Grossman picks.

If in that draft we did Tillman in the first and Briggs in the second, not sure what difference it would of made if we "reached" on both of those rounds


Because a player's perceived value is a factor in how long you can wait to take him.
If you (and only you) had perfect knowledge of the draft, and the best player in the draft had a 6th round grade, it would still be a mistake to take him in the first round, when you could get him in the 5th and use that first round pick on a more obvious (better perceived) talent, even if that 1st round pick is not as good of a player.

How much do you let perceived value influence your moves? Well, that is more art than science, and will depend on the individual, but it is very much a part of the equation.

I do agree to an extent, though. My thought process is this: if that guy was not going to be there by the next time you pick, it's not a reach. You can't count on trade up/back opportunities being available, so splitting hairs about who should go at #28 instead of at #35 is irrelevant. Will that player be there 32 picks later is the better question.
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