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VIKINGS101011


Joined: 09 Sep 2005
Posts: 1511
PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 10:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Talk about worst case scenario for the Vikes haha
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Rich7sena


Joined: 12 Sep 2009
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 10:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

VIKINGS101011 wrote:
Talk about worst case scenario for the Vikes haha


I just read an article that Spielman isn't too concerned about picking a TE in this draft, so as much as I personally like the pick, I think I'm convinced otherwise.
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Rich7sena


Joined: 12 Sep 2009
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 10:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
You get that strong sense from where? You've spent a lot of time analyzing the Vikings?

They already have Peterson, Patterson, Jennings and Rudolph, that's a decent collection of impact players on offense. Norv Turner doesn't play a lot of 2 TE sets, so there's no huge need for another TE given that they have Rudolph. I guess he could revamp his system to make room for Ebron, but why would they put themselves in the situation of needing to do that?

You could justify a WR to upgrade their 3WR sets beyond Wright or Simpson (and as Jennings ages, he could be limited to the slot), especially since rookie WRs often take a year to get up to speed. If Evans or Watkins were still on the board here, they'd be favorite picks of a lot of Vikings fans.

They need a QB. You've got Carr going 20th, taking him 8th isn't a huge reach, even if they can't trade down (and why isn't that a viable option?). In this scenario, they're left with what, Mettenberger in the 2nd? That's a bigger reach than Carr at #8, and his character concerns are probably disqualifying to Spielman, who's the GM most likely to cross a name off a draft board for that reason alone. Failing that, Fales or McCarron in a Air Coryell? Savage? You think Spielman's going to wake up that Monday morning feeling he's helped his job security by not taking Carr at #8?

They also need help on defense, that was much more the problem last year than the non-QB part of the offense. They could use another CB and a LB who isn't an embarrassment in coverage, plus the safety spot next to Smith could be upgraded. Mosley, Dennard, Gilbert, Dix, etc, would all be better fits than Ebron.

About the only way Ebron makes sense is if they've decided not to extend Rudolph past this season, maybe because they think he's a poor fit for Turner's system (he's not been a great downfield receiving target, but then look who's been throwing to him). Even then, TE isn't a position that usually takes years to develop in the pros, so I'd expect them to leave Rudolph in place this year and replace him in the 2015 draft only if needed.

Convinced yet?


I am now convinced they won't be picking a tight end, but not for all of the reasons you listed. I recently read this: http://thevikingage.com/2014/02/27/rick-spielman-focused-tight-ends-draft/, which seems pretty convincing (though I still wouldn't be shocked if they pick him). Mettenberger is a big reason why I don't see the Vikings picking Carr in the first. I think they'll compare similarly throughout the process, with Mettenberger having a higher perceived value as a second rounder. Regarding his character issues: it's easy to profile a guy as being a headcase, but Mettenberger has now been four years removed from his incident and hasn't done anything else to warrant skepticism otherwise.

If Evans is gone, the Vikings will be in a tough spot considering I don't see a scenario where a team decides to trade up for a player (who, for who?).
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nathan004


Joined: 12 Feb 2014
Posts: 177
PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 10:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Solid draft. I like the Oakland move but not sure if Detroit loves Evans enough to trade that far up. I can see Tampa making a reach for him at 7 so there is some logic behind it.

I am okay with Tampa going QB. Just think that there are two suitable ones on the roster already that would allow then to address other needs.

Altogether, looked good and like that it's not another generic attempt.
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Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
Posts: 2237
PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 11:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Rich7sena wrote:
Quote:
You get that strong sense from where? You've spent a lot of time analyzing the Vikings?

They already have Peterson, Patterson, Jennings and Rudolph, that's a decent collection of impact players on offense. Norv Turner doesn't play a lot of 2 TE sets, so there's no huge need for another TE given that they have Rudolph. I guess he could revamp his system to make room for Ebron, but why would they put themselves in the situation of needing to do that?

You could justify a WR to upgrade their 3WR sets beyond Wright or Simpson (and as Jennings ages, he could be limited to the slot), especially since rookie WRs often take a year to get up to speed. If Evans or Watkins were still on the board here, they'd be favorite picks of a lot of Vikings fans.

They need a QB. You've got Carr going 20th, taking him 8th isn't a huge reach, even if they can't trade down (and why isn't that a viable option?). In this scenario, they're left with what, Mettenberger in the 2nd? That's a bigger reach than Carr at #8, and his character concerns are probably disqualifying to Spielman, who's the GM most likely to cross a name off a draft board for that reason alone. Failing that, Fales or McCarron in a Air Coryell? Savage? You think Spielman's going to wake up that Monday morning feeling he's helped his job security by not taking Carr at #8?

They also need help on defense, that was much more the problem last year than the non-QB part of the offense. They could use another CB and a LB who isn't an embarrassment in coverage, plus the safety spot next to Smith could be upgraded. Mosley, Dennard, Gilbert, Dix, etc, would all be better fits than Ebron.

About the only way Ebron makes sense is if they've decided not to extend Rudolph past this season, maybe because they think he's a poor fit for Turner's system (he's not been a great downfield receiving target, but then look who's been throwing to him). Even then, TE isn't a position that usually takes years to develop in the pros, so I'd expect them to leave Rudolph in place this year and replace him in the 2015 draft only if needed.

Convinced yet?


I am now convinced they won't be picking a tight end, but not for all of the reasons you listed. I recently read this: http://thevikingage.com/2014/02/27/rick-spielman-focused-tight-ends-draft/, which seems pretty convincing (though I still wouldn't be shocked if they pick him). Mettenberger is a big reason why I don't see the Vikings picking Carr in the first. I think they'll compare similarly throughout the process, with Mettenberger having a higher perceived value as a second rounder. Regarding his character issues: it's easy to profile a guy as being a headcase, but Mettenberger has now been four years removed from his incident and hasn't done anything else to warrant skepticism otherwise.

If Evans is gone, the Vikings will be in a tough spot considering I don't see a scenario where a team decides to trade up for a player (who, for who?).


Sorry, what? How is that article (which is out of date, from before they released Carlson) any different than what I'm saying? Tight end is the lowest priority on the Vikings roster given current personnel and the new OC, even an OT like Robinson could at least play guard.

Mettenberger's character issues are rumored to extend way beyond the one incident 4 years ago. Carr is almost literally a choirboy by comparison.

If you don't understand why Spielman is much more likely to take Carr at #8 than Mettenberger anywhere (and he's a 3rd-4th round talent with a worrisome injury history, a way bigger reach at #40 than Carr in the top 10), you don't know much about Spielman.
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Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 11:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

For instance: http://www.twincities.com/vikings/ci_25147321/tom-powers-vikings-gm-rick-spielman-its-all

The Vikings reportedly had more players crossed off their draft board for character concerns last year than any other team.

Part of the reason they took Ponder (yes, a mistake) was that he could be the clean cut and well spoken face of the franchise.

That's the tendency of the guy you're trying to predict with such misplaced confidence.

Carr's exactly the kind of guy Spielman loves.
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Rich7sena


Joined: 12 Sep 2009
Posts: 3448
PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 11:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Krauser wrote:
Rich7sena wrote:
Quote:
You get that strong sense from where? You've spent a lot of time analyzing the Vikings?

They already have Peterson, Patterson, Jennings and Rudolph, that's a decent collection of impact players on offense. Norv Turner doesn't play a lot of 2 TE sets, so there's no huge need for another TE given that they have Rudolph. I guess he could revamp his system to make room for Ebron, but why would they put themselves in the situation of needing to do that?

You could justify a WR to upgrade their 3WR sets beyond Wright or Simpson (and as Jennings ages, he could be limited to the slot), especially since rookie WRs often take a year to get up to speed. If Evans or Watkins were still on the board here, they'd be favorite picks of a lot of Vikings fans.

They need a QB. You've got Carr going 20th, taking him 8th isn't a huge reach, even if they can't trade down (and why isn't that a viable option?). In this scenario, they're left with what, Mettenberger in the 2nd? That's a bigger reach than Carr at #8, and his character concerns are probably disqualifying to Spielman, who's the GM most likely to cross a name off a draft board for that reason alone. Failing that, Fales or McCarron in a Air Coryell? Savage? You think Spielman's going to wake up that Monday morning feeling he's helped his job security by not taking Carr at #8?

They also need help on defense, that was much more the problem last year than the non-QB part of the offense. They could use another CB and a LB who isn't an embarrassment in coverage, plus the safety spot next to Smith could be upgraded. Mosley, Dennard, Gilbert, Dix, etc, would all be better fits than Ebron.

About the only way Ebron makes sense is if they've decided not to extend Rudolph past this season, maybe because they think he's a poor fit for Turner's system (he's not been a great downfield receiving target, but then look who's been throwing to him). Even then, TE isn't a position that usually takes years to develop in the pros, so I'd expect them to leave Rudolph in place this year and replace him in the 2015 draft only if needed.

Convinced yet?


I am now convinced they won't be picking a tight end, but not for all of the reasons you listed. I recently read this: http://thevikingage.com/2014/02/27/rick-spielman-focused-tight-ends-draft/, which seems pretty convincing (though I still wouldn't be shocked if they pick him). Mettenberger is a big reason why I don't see the Vikings picking Carr in the first. I think they'll compare similarly throughout the process, with Mettenberger having a higher perceived value as a second rounder. Regarding his character issues: it's easy to profile a guy as being a headcase, but Mettenberger has now been four years removed from his incident and hasn't done anything else to warrant skepticism otherwise.

If Evans is gone, the Vikings will be in a tough spot considering I don't see a scenario where a team decides to trade up for a player (who, for who?).


Sorry, what? How is that article (which is out of date, from before they released Carlson) any different than what I'm saying? Tight end is the lowest priority on the Vikings roster given current personnel and the new OC, even an OT like Robinson could at least play guard.

Mettenberger's character issues are rumored to extend way beyond the one incident 4 years ago. Carr is almost literally a choirboy by comparison.

If you don't understand why Spielman is much more likely to take Carr at #8 than Mettenberger anywhere (and he's a 3rd-4th round talent with a worrisome injury history, a way bigger reach at #40 than Carr in the top 10), you don't know much about Spielman.


I never disputed that tight end isn't a position of need, my explanation simply states that his addition would change the dynamic of the offense (similar to when Cincinnati selected Eifert with already on the roster). Also, I wouldn't consider the article out of date considering the context of the quote (I doubt Spielman has changed his mind even when Carlson's release). I've evaluated both Carr and Mettenberger, and I can definitely see Mettenberger being favored on the merits of his perceived upside and value. I don't doubt that Carr is being considered there, but I'm not sure Spielman will grab him there (I think he should, but this isn't about that) because his statements about Ponder remaining on the team going into next season.
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matt79511


Joined: 10 Jul 2011
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dallas has repeatedly expressed that they don't view 1-tech as a position with enough value to draft in the first round and that they don't employ 340 pound types along the DL, period. So I don't really see them moving up for Nix, sorry.

I do think they're hard to mock for since the top DLs will be gone. Don't rule out Zach Martin for them, multiple beat writers from different sites have thrown his name around. Could start at RG this year and kick out to RT to replace Free in 2015.
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Krauser


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For a guy who's asking to be convinced otherwise, you're hard to convince. Or now you've convinced yourself, no thanks to anyone else?

If not QB, they'd probably take CB or LB at #8 in this scenario.

It's hard to square the idea that Ebron is such exceptional value as an offensive weapon that the Vikings would be compelled to take him, even though their OC is famously rigid in his system and they already have the one TE his system requires, and yet no team below them would value Ebron highly enough to consider trading up, even for cheap.

Trades are almost always available as long as the price is low enough, and in this imaginary situation where Spielman is targeting Mett in the 2nd and has no interest in adding the best CB, ILB, DT or FS in the draft to his team, it'd still be smarter to trade down 10 spots for as little as a mid-3rd or 4th instead of taking Ebron. Probably one of the teams below them would value Ebron or Nix or Donald or Mosley or Gilbert or whoever highly enough that they'd give up a mid round pick to jump way up in the first.
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Rich7sena


Joined: 12 Sep 2009
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Krauser wrote:
For a guy who's asking to be convinced otherwise, you're hard to convince. Or now you've convinced yourself, no thanks to anyone else?

If not QB, they'd probably take CB or LB at #8 in this scenario.

It's hard to square the idea that Ebron is such exceptional value as an offensive weapon that the Vikings would be compelled to take him, even though their OC is famously rigid in his system and they already have the one TE his system requires, and yet no team below them would value Ebron highly enough to consider trading up, even for cheap.

Trades are almost always available as long as the price is low enough, and in this imaginary situation where Spielman is targeting Mett in the 2nd and has no interest in adding the best CB, ILB, DT or FS in the draft to his team, it'd still be smarter to trade down 10 spots for as little as a mid-3rd or 4th instead of taking Ebron. Probably one of the teams below them would value Ebron or Nix or Donald or Mosley or Gilbert or whoever highly enough that they'd give up a mid round pick to jump way up in the first.


Thanks, I didn't mean to offend you.


Last edited by Rich7sena on Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:56 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Rich7sena


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

matt79511 wrote:
Dallas has repeatedly expressed that they don't view 1-tech as a position with enough value to draft in the first round and that they don't employ 340 pound types along the DL, period. So I don't really see them moving up for Nix, sorry.

I do think they're hard to mock for since the top DLs will be gone. Don't rule out Zach Martin for them, multiple beat writers from different sites have thrown his name around. Could start at RG this year and kick out to RT to replace Free in 2015.


Besides Nix, I could also see Dallas trading up for Clinton-Dix.
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Forge


Joined: 19 Feb 2010
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Love Verrett for the 49ers. Scrappy and aggressive, fluid, annoying, knows what's going on. He's going to be a stud. Plus he put up one of the best bench press numbers for a cornerback at the combine with a torn labrum. Respect for that, it had to hurt like hell.
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Forge


Joined: 19 Feb 2010
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 12:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

babyatemydingo wrote:
The Eagles are taking Bucannon in the 1st.
It is written in the stars.

Well, in all of the pre-draft signs, anyway.

Jernigan is a helluva player.
I don't think any Eagle fan would mind.

It is just too far outside of the box.
You can be too esoteric, you know.


Have you been talking to Adam Muema? Laughing
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zappa13004


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 1:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Lewan would be an upgrade over Beatty but he signed last year a 39M contract with 19 guaranteed, that's LT money. Pugh was drafted to play RT don't count on them sliding him inside.
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ttitansfan4life


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 2:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Great Titans pick.
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