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Are the Pats putting all their eggs into Dobson's basket?
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mcmurtry86


Joined: 02 Mar 2010
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 17, 2014 9:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NextBigThing wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
Yes you are, and if you've watched Brady closely you'd know that while he is "more than capable of making those throws" he doesn't make them all that often. They're low percentage plays for most QB's and Brady is probably about average for a starting QB in making those throws.

I don't see how their lack of chemistry falls evenly at all. Brady runs the offense. The receivers need to be where he thinks they're going to be. If Brady makes an errant throw, so be it. But many of the misses between the two seemed to be more on Dobson not being where Brady expected exactly when it was expected. Does Brady deserve some blame for making bad throws? I guess, but that's true of every WR with whom he works. He made some bad throws to every one of his receivers but Dobson was the guy with whom he had the worst chemistry. I don't know how you can evenly assign blame. Brady is going to make bad throws. I don't see that as a chemistry issue in most occasions.


IMO drops and missed open receivers are equally frustrating. Perhaps you are saying that I am expecting too much out of the quarterback, but the bolded, in my opinion, fits evenly alongside receivers are going to drop balls. The most frustrating of both drops & errant passes are the easier ones.

The problem which applies to Tom Brady's misfires to Aaron Dobson which doesn't apply to his poor throws to everybody else is they are of the deep variety. While those throws are, as you mentioned, lower percentage throws, they're far from impossible & many teams complete far more regularly than qb does. More importantly, the impact and in-game difference completing one of the deep throws makes - when compared to the shorter underneath ones - is much greater. Case in point, we lost this game in overtime:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WYkoKgX2Zz0&t=2m22s

Tom Brady has GOT to throw a pass that his receiver can at least make a play on in that situation. That is not a case of not knowing where the receiver would be because that would mean Brady anticipated Dobson being out of bounds. Missing on what it is very likely a touchdown is very different than missing on any other normal pass because is cost us the game. Even if Dobson fails to score, we are in field goal range and never go to overtime. Maybe this is merely personal preference which it very well may be, but Brady has less margin for error on deep balls like the ones posted above.

Furthermore, everybody says these are lower percentage throws, but that does not mean they are more difficult throws to make. Brady is not threading a needle on these plays, he is supposed to be picking a spot down the field and throwing the football to that spot, with the thinking being his receiver will run to that spot and make the catch. Hardly rocket science & exactly what he did in the Pitt game long that long touchdown.

It's one thing to say it is a low percentage play when Brady throws a catchable pass and the coverage is just good. However, "it is a low percentage play" does not give Brady a pass when the receiver is clearly open and Brady throws a ball with such poor touch and accuracy that the receiver cannot make a play on the ball.


It's a lot harder to throw a deep ball than it is to run the correct route or catch a ball that hits you in the hands.

Bad throws are going to happen regardless of the QB or what receiver he's throwing to. Drops shouldn't happen. Wrong routes, bad reads (by either QB or WR) shouldn't happen. A WR not being where he's supposed to be shouldn't happen.

Dobson's errors last year are a lot more fixable than Brady's.

Finally "low percentage" does give a QB a pass to an extent. It means that while a QB should be able to hit those plays sometimes, even the best QB's are going to fail to do so more often than they hit them. It's similar to a hitter in baseball. They "should" hit bad pitchers all the time but even the best hitter is going to make more outs than hits against a bad or mediocre pitcher. No QB is going to hit open receivers downfield with regularity.
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NextBigThing


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 17, 2014 9:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
batting average


I understand a receiver should have a higher catch average than a QB should have a "hitting open receivers" average, but the differences - especially with a QB of Bradys caliber involved - should not be overly large.

All that does is add to how impressive Randy Moss when he was here. He made even Brady's deep balls look good.

Not all deep balls are created equal. The ones posted above are so bad that I almost cannot comprehend how the man throwing the ball won 3 super bowls. High school players could make better passes on those select plays.

It is a pass to an extent but that is just it - to an extent. Brady deserves about as much blame as you can put on a QB for most of the linked throws, which cost Aaron Dobson in excess of 200 yards and several touchdowns.

I am just saying...this off season, I would prefer Brady work less on hitting Edleman for his 2 yard routes where he gets to run after the catch & working on learning to throw the ball out in front of his receiver on bombs. It will merit more touch than when he had Randy Moss, who was so fast Brady could just throw the ball as far as he could, but it should still be very doable.
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 17, 2014 10:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NextBigThing wrote:

It is a pass to an extent but that is just it - to an extent. Brady deserves about as much blame as you can put on a QB for most of the linked throws, which cost Aaron Dobson in excess of 200 yards and several touchdowns.


I'm sure if you add up all of Brady's incompletions, he could have had thousands more yards and dozens of TD's.

True of any QB, of course.

Quote:
I am just saying...this off season, I would prefer Brady work less on hitting Edleman for his 2 yard routes where he gets to run after the catch & working on learning to throw the ball out in front of his receiver on bombs. It will merit more touch than when he had Randy Moss, who was so fast Brady could just throw the ball as far as he could, but it should still be very doable.


I think at this point in Brady's career, he's not going to magically get better at throwing the deep ball. He can get better timing and comfort with Dobson maybe but it's never going to be anything more than mediocre.

And frankly, Brady should spend his time working on the short and intermediate stuff the most because that's the chain moving stuff that comprises the vast majority of the offense.
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NextBigThing


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 17, 2014 10:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think Brady could certainly improve his deep ball. Her has basically had two varieties throughout his career:

1) throw it out there ala Randy Moss - just throw the ball as far as he can


and

2) Put touch on it ala Deion Branch- ball requires great deal of touch and timing accuracy on Bradys behalf

Dobson is more #1 than #2. #1 is much a easier pass to make.
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jofos


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PostPosted: Mon Mar 17, 2014 11:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow this thread started about are we counting on Dobson to much to if Brady didn't suck on deep throws (or if he was as good as Thad Lewis) Dobson would be in the hall of fame after his rookie year. Shocked
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patsfan25


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 1:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

jofos wrote:
Wow this thread started about are we counting on Dobson to much to if Brady didn't suck on deep throws (or if he was as good as Thad Lewis) Dobson would be in the hall of fame after his rookie year. Shocked


Context is key.
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derekstanggt


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 10:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

CP3MVP wrote:
derekstanggt wrote:
CP3MVP wrote:

But in general the position of WR is perhaps the most overrated in team sports. Who were the pats WR's when they won 3 in 4 years? You probably can't name the receivers on Seattle and their the best team in the league


That's certainly a point to consider. However, something you didn't mention is that those teams all had elite defenses and very good run games. If the Pats' defense becomes as good, or close to Seattle's, and the run game looks as good as it did the last couple games of last year, then I'll be much less concerned with WR development. Very Happy


Well If healthy, I expect the patriots to have a top 5 defense or right out side the top 5.

The offense was rolling with gronk healthy with dobson and edleman


A lot of things can happen between now and week 1, but I'd agree, things are shaping up pretty well for the defense. I'm very concerned about the DTs, a starting S next to McCourty, a third rotational DE, and LB depth though. If those things are addressed with vet min guys and through the draft, then this defense looks to have the potential of top 5 in PA.

The offense can be good also, but again, I think a big part of that rests on Dobson's shoulders. Now with the foot surgery, he's going to miss valuable developmental time with Brady and the offense. I've almost given up on Gronk, I won't keep my hopes up that he plays a full season. Whenever he plays now, it's just a bonus. Lots of people like to say "if healthy...", but we can't ever count on full health. Last year was an outlier for sure, but there are significant injuries every year.
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renndawg37


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 12:49 pm    Post subject: Re: Are the Pats putting all their eggs into Dobson's basket Reply with quote

24isthelaw wrote:
Quote:
The Pats are lacking a true #1 guy. Now I know BB probably doesn't see his WRs as #1, #2, #3, etc, but that's how many opposing defenses are schemed.


So you're saying the Patriots don't have Calvin Johnson? A guy like Jordy Nelson isn't "changing defenses". There's only a couple of players in the NFL who could be described like that.

Quote:
Just looking around the league, it's hard not to find a big, fast, physical WR on almost every team.


Seattle, St. Louis, Tennessee, the New York Jets, the New York Giants, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Minnesota, San Diego, Carolina - those are all teams off the top of my head that do not have such a player. San Francisco and New Orleans are debatable. Its really harder to find such a player than to not find them.

Having one of the best WRs in the NFL on your team is obviously a good thing. Its also not a necessity. And Dobson doesn't have to be that to be a success. He just has to be decent. Which is what Edelman and Amendola already are.


Hunter, Hill (to a lesser extent), Randle, Patterson? Even Cooper and Marlon Moore have an argument.
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24isthelaw


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 6:03 pm    Post subject: Re: Are the Pats putting all their eggs into Dobson's basket Reply with quote

renndawg37 wrote:
24isthelaw wrote:
Quote:
The Pats are lacking a true #1 guy. Now I know BB probably doesn't see his WRs as #1, #2, #3, etc, but that's how many opposing defenses are schemed.


So you're saying the Patriots don't have Calvin Johnson? A guy like Jordy Nelson isn't "changing defenses". There's only a couple of players in the NFL who could be described like that.

Quote:
Just looking around the league, it's hard not to find a big, fast, physical WR on almost every team.


Seattle, St. Louis, Tennessee, the New York Jets, the New York Giants, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Minnesota, San Diego, Carolina - those are all teams off the top of my head that do not have such a player. San Francisco and New Orleans are debatable. Its really harder to find such a player than to not find them.

Having one of the best WRs in the NFL on your team is obviously a good thing. Its also not a necessity. And Dobson doesn't have to be that to be a success. He just has to be decent. Which is what Edelman and Amendola already are.


Hunter, Hill (to a lesser extent), Randle, Patterson? Even Cooper and Marlon Moore have an argument.


Those guys are nobodies. Justin Hunter? Reuben Randle? Just because they're big doesn't mean they are #1 receivers.

As for Dobson, he seems like an raw version of Brian Hartline. Smooth, build up speed, dangerous on comeback routes, can set up double moves well, not a red zone target.
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Deadpulse


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 6:22 pm    Post subject: Re: Are the Pats putting all their eggs into Dobson's basket Reply with quote

24isthelaw wrote:
renndawg37 wrote:
24isthelaw wrote:
Quote:
The Pats are lacking a true #1 guy. Now I know BB probably doesn't see his WRs as #1, #2, #3, etc, but that's how many opposing defenses are schemed.


So you're saying the Patriots don't have Calvin Johnson? A guy like Jordy Nelson isn't "changing defenses". There's only a couple of players in the NFL who could be described like that.

Quote:
Just looking around the league, it's hard not to find a big, fast, physical WR on almost every team.


Seattle, St. Louis, Tennessee, the New York Jets, the New York Giants, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Minnesota, San Diego, Carolina - those are all teams off the top of my head that do not have such a player. San Francisco and New Orleans are debatable. Its really harder to find such a player than to not find them.

Having one of the best WRs in the NFL on your team is obviously a good thing. Its also not a necessity. And Dobson doesn't have to be that to be a success. He just has to be decent. Which is what Edelman and Amendola already are.


Hunter, Hill (to a lesser extent), Randle, Patterson? Even Cooper and Marlon Moore have an argument.


Those guys are nobodies. Justin Hunter? Reuben Randle? Just because they're big doesn't mean they are #1 receivers.

As for Dobson, he seems like an raw version of Brian Hartline. Smooth, build up speed, dangerous on comeback routes, can set up double moves well, not a red zone target.


He didn't say they were #1 receivers, he said they are big, fast, and physical, making the point that just because you are those things does not make you automatically a good WR.
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Tue Mar 18, 2014 6:45 pm    Post subject: Re: Are the Pats putting all their eggs into Dobson's basket Reply with quote

renndawg37 wrote:
24isthelaw wrote:
Quote:
The Pats are lacking a true #1 guy. Now I know BB probably doesn't see his WRs as #1, #2, #3, etc, but that's how many opposing defenses are schemed.


So you're saying the Patriots don't have Calvin Johnson? A guy like Jordy Nelson isn't "changing defenses". There's only a couple of players in the NFL who could be described like that.

Quote:
Just looking around the league, it's hard not to find a big, fast, physical WR on almost every team.


Seattle, St. Louis, Tennessee, the New York Jets, the New York Giants, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, Indianapolis, Philadelphia, Minnesota, San Diego, Carolina - those are all teams off the top of my head that do not have such a player. San Francisco and New Orleans are debatable. Its really harder to find such a player than to not find them.

Having one of the best WRs in the NFL on your team is obviously a good thing. Its also not a necessity. And Dobson doesn't have to be that to be a success. He just has to be decent. Which is what Edelman and Amendola already are.


Hunter, Hill (to a lesser extent), Randle, Patterson? Even Cooper and Marlon Moore have an argument.


Marlon Moore is 6'0 190. He's a tiny bit smaller and slower than Kenbrell Thompkins (using Pro Day/Combine numbers). How does he have an argument that he's a "big, fast, physical" receiver?
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Patsfan01


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2014 9:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Quote:
The Pats are lacking a true #1 guy. Now I know BB probably doesn't see his WRs as #1, #2, #3, etc, but that's how many opposing defenses are schemed.


Since when have the Pats ever really had a true #1 guy outside of Moss, since Brady has been here?

The Pats finished in the top 10 in nearly every important statistical category last season and that was with multiple major injuries to many key players. This offense is gonna be even better this season which is scary considering the D we are going to have.

We aren't putting too many eggs in Dobson's basket. The guy was a rookie last season and showed many signs that he is going to be a very dangerous WR in the NFL. He's going to be fine.
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derekstanggt


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2014 10:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Patsfan01 wrote:
Since when have the Pats ever really had a true #1 guy outside of Moss, since Brady has been here?

The Pats finished in the top 10 in nearly every important statistical category last season and that was with multiple major injuries to many key players. This offense is gonna be even better this season which is scary considering the D we are going to have.


The Pats have had a top 10 offense for, what, the last 8 years? Has it translated into a Super Bowl? I don't think saying "We have a top 10 offense, it's ok" should ever make anyone feel better. And how do we know the offense will be better this year? Gronk is still rehabbing and is no sure thing to play a full season. The OL is still a huge unknown and may have at least one or two new starters without Scar and his expertise. Brady is declining, or at the very least, not getting any better, and only a homer would deny it. And, of course, Dobson will be rehabbing his surgery for a few months, and could miss OTAs, camp, etc. There's also the mythical sophomore slump that could strike the WRs. Even drafting a rookie on offense, he'll need time to acclimate.

Patsfan01 wrote:
We aren't putting too many eggs in Dobson's basket. The guy was a rookie last season and showed many signs that he is going to be a very dangerous WR in the NFL. He's going to be fine.


The same sentiment shared by probably 30 other teams about their individual draft picks, though many will not live up to expectations. Chad Jackson looked like the answer, until injuries derailed his career.

That's the thing, the league is trending more toward having bigger, stronger WRs. Outside of Moss, the Pats have never really had that type of WR. We see the mindset starting to shift a bit within NE. Bigger CBs to counter the trend, and they've started acquiring bigger WRs also. I'm just worried the guys with the physical tools won't be able to put it all together.

Of course, all this pessimism about the offense will be less of an issue if the defense becomes elite.
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ConnPatFan


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2014 12:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

derekstanggt wrote:
The Pats have had a top 10 offense for, what, the last 8 years? Has it translated into a Super Bowl? I don't think saying "We have a top 10 offense, it's ok" should ever make anyone feel better.

so the fact our fantastic offenses(or anyone else's)haven't won a Super Bowl means we should be worried that our offense may not be fantastic?

It will be good enough, probably better than last year with a year of experience on the WRs and hopefully not quite as much missed time from injuries.
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derekstanggt


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PostPosted: Wed Mar 19, 2014 12:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ConnPatFan wrote:
derekstanggt wrote:
The Pats have had a top 10 offense for, what, the last 8 years? Has it translated into a Super Bowl? I don't think saying "We have a top 10 offense, it's ok" should ever make anyone feel better.

so the fact our fantastic offenses(or anyone else's)haven't won a Super Bowl means we should be worried that our offense may not be fantastic?


I'm not sure what point you're trying to make. A top 10 offense is fantastic, sure. But that doesn't mean the team should rest on their laurels and not try to improve. I'm not saying that they aren't, but I was only responding to some posts that basically were saying "We have a top 10 offense, we're good. Stop worrying about Dobson."

ConnPatFan wrote:
It will be good enough, probably better than last year with a year of experience on the WRs and hopefully not quite as much missed time from injuries.


Based on what? The impeccable durability history of Gronk, Amendola, Edelman, Vollmer and to a lesser degree, Dobson? The string of fluke injuries last year were to the defense, guys that are typically durable. The offensive injuries have pretty much been par for the course. I know it's impossible to project injuries, but perfect health can't be assumed, and trends have to be accounted for.
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