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Amerson to free safety?

 
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 16, 2014 12:15 pm    Post subject: Amerson to free safety? Reply with quote

http://riggosrag.com/2014/03/16/redskins-moving-david-amerson-safety/?utm_source=FanSided+Daily&utm_medium=email

Quote:
On the Washington Redskins team page on NFL.com they list David Amerson as a free safety. Now this could easily be a typo, but if it’s not, could this be a move the Redskins are actually going to make happen? The Redskins have yet to sign a safety in free agency, and the only move in the secondary they’ve made is to sign cornerback Tracy Porter.


This probably explains why the Redskins signed Tracy Porter and were looking to sign Brandon Browner. The only safety they've looked to sign is Ryan Clark, so perhaps they're looking to move Amerson to FS. I personally think that's a better fit for him and his still set fits well there.
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MKnight82


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 16, 2014 1:29 pm    Post subject: Re: Amerson to free safety? Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
http://riggosrag.com/2014/03/16/redskins-moving-david-amerson-safety/?utm_source=FanSided+Daily&utm_medium=email

Quote:
On the Washington Redskins team page on NFL.com they list David Amerson as a free safety. Now this could easily be a typo, but if it’s not, could this be a move the Redskins are actually going to make happen? The Redskins have yet to sign a safety in free agency, and the only move in the secondary they’ve made is to sign cornerback Tracy Porter.


This probably explains why the Redskins signed Tracy Porter and were looking to sign Brandon Browner. The only safety they've looked to sign is Ryan Clark, so perhaps they're looking to move Amerson to FS. I personally think that's a better fit for him and his still set fits well there.
I think he played well at CB, I would leave him there.
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21 ALL THE WAY


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 16, 2014 2:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Im no football expert so I can't say if Amerson would fit better st FS or CB but I know he played well as a CB last season and I liked him there. Now if he is a better fit at FS than we need to sign another CB to replace Amerson at that spot. Also if this was to happen, what does this mean for Phillip Thomas?
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brandonb2005


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 16, 2014 2:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not sure what to think about this...could potentially be a great move or bad one. He played very well for us last year as a rookie. I liked the idea of having a bigger corner as well (6-1, 205lbs w/ 4.40 speed). I remember reading a scouting report on the combine page that said if he doesnt work well at corner he could possibly be a FS with his willingness to tackle.

The only thing David needs to improve on as a corner is his eye discipline and he will be a very good corner.

Now as far as a move...If we can bring in or possible draft another corner to play with Hall, Porter, and Crawford we would be fine, but that idea would leave us with all corners under 6-0ft.

David has the ball skills, aggressiveness and instincts to play safety. So we will see how things shake out.

Phillip Thomas is a SS...plays very well in the box and can cover TE's so he should be fine to develop if he stays healthy.
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tyler735


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

21 ALL THE WAY wrote:
Im no football expert so I can't say if Amerson would fit better st FS or CB but I know he played well as a CB last season and I liked him there. Now if he is a better fit at FS than we need to sign another CB to replace Amerson at that spot. Also if this was to happen, what does this mean for Phillip Thomas?


Phillip Thomas would be playing SS and Amerson would play FS.
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tyler735


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 16, 2014 5:53 pm    Post subject: Re: Amerson to free safety? Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
http://riggosrag.com/2014/03/16/redskins-moving-david-amerson-safety/?utm_source=FanSided+Daily&utm_medium=email

Quote:
On the Washington Redskins team page on NFL.com they list David Amerson as a free safety. Now this could easily be a typo, but if it’s not, could this be a move the Redskins are actually going to make happen? The Redskins have yet to sign a safety in free agency, and the only move in the secondary they’ve made is to sign cornerback Tracy Porter.


This probably explains why the Redskins signed Tracy Porter and were looking to sign Brandon Browner. The only safety they've looked to sign is Ryan Clark, so perhaps they're looking to move Amerson to FS. I personally think that's a better fit for him and his still set fits well there.


I agree, I think FS may be his best position. Even before we drafted Amerson there was a lot of talk about him moving to FS in the NFL. He really could be a good ball hawking FS for us. There are still some talented Free Agent CB's such as the Cromarties so we could be doing something like this. If not I do think Amerson can be a solid CB for us as well. He has a versatile skill set.
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MKnight82


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I thought I would do some research on this CB/S thing because I thought it was interesting. Here are some things I found:

10 year draft results, 2004-2013

# of players drafted per position in 1st round
CB - 33
S - 17

# of players drafted per position in the Top 10
CB - 10
S - 6

So significantly more CBs have been drafted in the first round than safeties. So this could lead you to believe teams value CBs more although the values are thrown some because you might consider a 3rd CB worth a 1st round pick while you would only have 2 starters at safety. However, you wouldn't consider taking a 3rd CB in the Top 10 of the draft and there were more CBs taken there than safeties.

Another interesting thing is that if you look at the percentage secondary players consist of a teams starting lineup (22 players) that value would be 18.18% (4/22=18.18%). However, the total about of players drafted in the first round from 2004-2013 was 319 (Pats forfeited one for sypgate) and the percentage of those players that were secondary players was only 15.67%. That's pretty significantly lower than the 18.18% secondary players represent in starting lineups indicating that teams don't value them as a whole as valuable as other positions. In the top 10 over the same time secondary players were 16% of the total 100 picks. Here's a summary of what I'm talking about:

319 first round picks from 2004-2013
4 secondary starters divided by 22 total starters = 18.18%
50 secondary first round picks divided by 319 total picks = 15.67%
16 secondary Top 10 picks divided by 100 total picks = 16%

Now lets look at salaries. So the draft would make us think that coming into the league teams value CBs more. Here's where it gets interesting:

Top CB Salaries in the NFL:
1. Johnathan Joseph - $7,500,000
2. Brandon Carr - $7,500,000
3. Lardarius Webb - $7,500,000
4. Tramon Williams - $6,900,000
5. Leon Hall - $6,800,000
6. Joe Haden - $6,678,193
7. Brandon Flowers - $5,250,000
8. Vontae Davis - $5,000,000
9. Alteraun Verner - $5,000,000
10. Cary Williams - $4,750,000

Top Safety Salaries in the NFL:
1. Jarius Byrd - $9,000,000
2. Eric Berry - $8,340,717
3. Dashon Goldson - $8,250,000
4. Eric Weddle - $8,000,000
5. Antrel Rolle - $7,420,000
6. Reshad Jones - $7,340,000
7. Kam Chancellor - $7,000,502
8. Michael Griffin - $7,000,000
9. Donte Whitner - $7,000,000
10. Tyvon Branch - $6,650,000

Wow right? That was not what I was expecting. That seems to go completely against teams strategy in the draft. Also, conventionally you hear people say that teams value CBs more than Safeties. This seems to say otherwise though.

So what's going on here? I think what is going on is that teams in theory generally do value CBs more than Safeties, this is supported by the draft results; however, there is currently a lack of talented safeties in the NFL driving up the prices of Safeties. This would seem to be the best explanation to me, but obviously the data could be interpreted different ways.

So what to do with Amerson then? Well, if we do believe that there is a lack of safety talent then finding a replacement at safety will be more difficult. Therefore, it should be easier to sign a replacement for Amerson at CB if he is moved to the safety spot (I think the free agency pool of players supports this).

So in conclusion if you were to ignore concerns like will Amerson be able to make a successful conversion to safety (which is a big assumption) this analysis seems to support him making the switch. I was actually surprised by the results.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:33 pm    Post subject: Re: Amerson to free safety? Reply with quote

tyler735 wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
http://riggosrag.com/2014/03/16/redskins-moving-david-amerson-safety/?utm_source=FanSided+Daily&utm_medium=email

Quote:
On the Washington Redskins team page on NFL.com they list David Amerson as a free safety. Now this could easily be a typo, but if it’s not, could this be a move the Redskins are actually going to make happen? The Redskins have yet to sign a safety in free agency, and the only move in the secondary they’ve made is to sign cornerback Tracy Porter.


This probably explains why the Redskins signed Tracy Porter and were looking to sign Brandon Browner. The only safety they've looked to sign is Ryan Clark, so perhaps they're looking to move Amerson to FS. I personally think that's a better fit for him and his still set fits well there.


I agree, I think FS may be his best position. Even before we drafted Amerson there was a lot of talk about him moving to FS in the NFL. He really could be a good ball hawking FS for us. There are still some talented Free Agent CB's such as the Cromarties so we could be doing something like this. If not I do think Amerson can be a solid CB for us as well. He has a versatile skill set.
Yep, that's exactly how I'm thinking as well.

I do see and agree with what others saying about him as well. He did play pretty well at CB last year for a rookie, but IMO there's several talented Corners still available in free agency, and I think that talent is a deeper position than FS in the draft. So, if moved Amerson, it'd be easier to sign & draft a young corner to replace him than it seems to be in finding a long term FS fix.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MKnight82 wrote:
I thought I would do some research on this CB/S thing because I thought it was interesting. Here are some things I found:

10 year draft results, 2004-2013

# of players drafted per position in 1st round
CB - 33
S - 17

# of players drafted per position in the Top 10
CB - 10
S - 6

So significantly more CBs have been drafted in the first round than safeties. So this could lead you to believe teams value CBs more although the values are thrown some because you might consider a 3rd CB worth a 1st round pick while you would only have 2 starters at safety. However, you wouldn't consider taking a 3rd CB in the Top 10 of the draft and there were more CBs taken there than safeties.

Another interesting thing is that if you look at the percentage secondary players consist of a teams starting lineup (22 players) that value would be 18.18% (4/22=18.18%). However, the total about of players drafted in the first round from 2004-2013 was 319 (Pats forfeited one for sypgate) and the percentage of those players that were secondary players was only 15.67%. That's pretty significantly lower than the 18.18% secondary players represent in starting lineups indicating that teams don't value them as a whole as valuable as other positions. In the top 10 over the same time secondary players were 16% of the total 100 picks. Here's a summary of what I'm talking about:

319 first round picks from 2004-2013
4 secondary starters divided by 22 total starters = 18.18%
50 secondary first round picks divided by 319 total picks = 15.67%
16 secondary Top 10 picks divided by 100 total picks = 16%

Now lets look at salaries. So the draft would make us think that coming into the league teams value CBs more. Here's where it gets interesting:

Top CB Salaries in the NFL:
1. Johnathan Joseph - $7,500,000
2. Brandon Carr - $7,500,000
3. Lardarius Webb - $7,500,000
4. Tramon Williams - $6,900,000
5. Leon Hall - $6,800,000
6. Joe Haden - $6,678,193
7. Brandon Flowers - $5,250,000
8. Vontae Davis - $5,000,000
9. Alteraun Verner - $5,000,000
10. Cary Williams - $4,750,000

Top Safety Salaries in the NFL:
1. Jarius Byrd - $9,000,000
2. Eric Berry - $8,340,717
3. Dashon Goldson - $8,250,000
4. Eric Weddle - $8,000,000
5. Antrel Rolle - $7,420,000
6. Reshad Jones - $7,340,000
7. Kam Chancellor - $7,000,502
8. Michael Griffin - $7,000,000
9. Donte Whitner - $7,000,000
10. Tyvon Branch - $6,650,000

Wow right? That was not what I was expecting. That seems to go completely against teams strategy in the draft. Also, conventionally you hear people say that teams value CBs more than Safeties. This seems to say otherwise though.

So what's going on here? I think what is going on is that teams in theory generally do value CBs more than Safeties, this is supported by the draft results; however, there is currently a lack of talented safeties in the NFL driving up the prices of Safeties. This would seem to be the best explanation to me, but obviously the data could be interpreted different ways.

So what to do with Amerson then? Well, if we do believe that there is a lack of safety talent then finding a replacement at safety will be more difficult. Therefore, it should be easier to sign a replacement for Amerson at CB if he is moved to the safety spot (I think the free agency pool of players supports this).

So in conclusion if you were to ignore concerns like will Amerson be able to make a successful conversion to safety (which is a big assumption) this analysis seems to support him making the switch. I was actually surprised by the results.
yes, you're conclusion is the exact one I have.

Question though,

Did you purposely leave out the top two paid corners?

I didn't see Revis & Talib on your list...
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MKnight82


Joined: 04 Mar 2009
Posts: 7696
PostPosted: Sun Mar 16, 2014 7:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
MKnight82 wrote:
I thought I would do some research on this CB/S thing because I thought it was interesting. Here are some things I found:

10 year draft results, 2004-2013

# of players drafted per position in 1st round
CB - 33
S - 17

# of players drafted per position in the Top 10
CB - 10
S - 6

So significantly more CBs have been drafted in the first round than safeties. So this could lead you to believe teams value CBs more although the values are thrown some because you might consider a 3rd CB worth a 1st round pick while you would only have 2 starters at safety. However, you wouldn't consider taking a 3rd CB in the Top 10 of the draft and there were more CBs taken there than safeties.

Another interesting thing is that if you look at the percentage secondary players consist of a teams starting lineup (22 players) that value would be 18.18% (4/22=18.18%). However, the total about of players drafted in the first round from 2004-2013 was 319 (Pats forfeited one for sypgate) and the percentage of those players that were secondary players was only 15.67%. That's pretty significantly lower than the 18.18% secondary players represent in starting lineups indicating that teams don't value them as a whole as valuable as other positions. In the top 10 over the same time secondary players were 16% of the total 100 picks. Here's a summary of what I'm talking about:

319 first round picks from 2004-2013
4 secondary starters divided by 22 total starters = 18.18%
50 secondary first round picks divided by 319 total picks = 15.67%
16 secondary Top 10 picks divided by 100 total picks = 16%

Now lets look at salaries. So the draft would make us think that coming into the league teams value CBs more. Here's where it gets interesting:

Top CB Salaries in the NFL:
1. Johnathan Joseph - $7,500,000
2. Brandon Carr - $7,500,000
3. Lardarius Webb - $7,500,000
4. Tramon Williams - $6,900,000
5. Leon Hall - $6,800,000
6. Joe Haden - $6,678,193
7. Brandon Flowers - $5,250,000
8. Vontae Davis - $5,000,000
9. Alteraun Verner - $5,000,000
10. Cary Williams - $4,750,000

Top Safety Salaries in the NFL:
1. Jarius Byrd - $9,000,000
2. Eric Berry - $8,340,717
3. Dashon Goldson - $8,250,000
4. Eric Weddle - $8,000,000
5. Antrel Rolle - $7,420,000
6. Reshad Jones - $7,340,000
7. Kam Chancellor - $7,000,502
8. Michael Griffin - $7,000,000
9. Donte Whitner - $7,000,000
10. Tyvon Branch - $6,650,000

Wow right? That was not what I was expecting. That seems to go completely against teams strategy in the draft. Also, conventionally you hear people say that teams value CBs more than Safeties. This seems to say otherwise though.

So what's going on here? I think what is going on is that teams in theory generally do value CBs more than Safeties, this is supported by the draft results; however, there is currently a lack of talented safeties in the NFL driving up the prices of Safeties. This would seem to be the best explanation to me, but obviously the data could be interpreted different ways.

So what to do with Amerson then? Well, if we do believe that there is a lack of safety talent then finding a replacement at safety will be more difficult. Therefore, it should be easier to sign a replacement for Amerson at CB if he is moved to the safety spot (I think the free agency pool of players supports this).

So in conclusion if you were to ignore concerns like will Amerson be able to make a successful conversion to safety (which is a big assumption) this analysis seems to support him making the switch. I was actually surprised by the results.
yes, you're conclusion is the exact one I have.

Question though,

Did you purposely leave out the top two paid corners?

I didn't see Revis & Talib on your list...
No I just took the numbers from Spoctrac. Perhaps those contract haven't been confirmed by the league yet. Still, even if you put those guys #1 & #2 the 10th CB would be $5 mil while the 10th safety would be $6.65. If the salaries were to line up with the draft data properly the safety contracts should be significantly lower than the CBs, that isn't happening.
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Doc Draper


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PostPosted: Sun Mar 16, 2014 8:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Very interesting idea! Much better than Hall at safety as amerson is more physical too. I'd love him at corner but since we don't have anything better it puts our three strongest DB hall amerson porter on the field the most. Who knows maybe minnefield could develop or Crawford become a better tackler and play the slot in nickel.
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turtle28


Joined: 21 Nov 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Mar 17, 2014 3:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Doc Draper wrote:
Very interesting idea! Much better than Hall at safety as amerson is more physical too. I'd love him at corner but since we don't have anything better it puts our three strongest DB hall amerson porter on the field the most. Who knows maybe minnefield could develop or Crawford become a better tackler and play the slot in nickel.
I think we could also draft a CB in round 3 or so to help solidify that position easier than we can draft a FS who's going to be an upgrade on coverage over what we currently have
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