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Vikings Draft Discussion 6.0- 41 days!
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Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
Posts: 2040
PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 2:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I won't have to be nitpicky if I go through my screenshots from the USC bowl game.

Here's the link if you want to follow along: http://draftbreakdown.com/video/derek-carr-vs-usc-2013/

I'll include good and bad plays (they're mostly bad).

Carr ends up 29/54 (54%) for 216, 2 TDs, 1 INT. Those numbers are flattering once you watch the video. Of the 216 yards, I'll bet well over 100 are YAC, nearly all of his completions are screen passes or quick routes.

Highlights and lowlights, with my captions.


Starts with a bang, accurate back shoulder throw against tight coverage for 16

...



Rolls right, draws rusher to him, has checkdown wide open, throw takes him to ground, incomplete -- defensive holding penalty

...


throwing from clean pocket, wide open WR for TD, throws it out the back of the end zone, bad miss

...



TD #1: free rusher, leans back, fires a strike to narrow window on slant, right on the money, NFL throw. End zone view shows his excellent anticipation here.

...


In the middle of that muddy pocket, accurate checkdown, YAC

...




Read-option, rolls right, sets feet with just enough time to throw facing free rusher. Inaccurate throw to open WR, pulls him off his feet, incomplete (still probably catchable)

...


Carr hangs in pocket and throws deep but well covered. WR pushes off, then drops the pass anyway. OPI penalty. Carr takes a hit, gets up favouring his left shoulder.

...


3rd and 4 quick to slot WR with 7 yard cushion but ball placement is behind him, no YAC, 1st down by penalty anyway

...



No pressure, forces out route, CB breaks on it, gets hand on it, no INT as pass too high. Poor read saved by poor accuracy.

...




WR comes wide open after a pump fake / double move. Carr has time to throw, space to step up, but throws too soon and lobs it too far. TD if he's accurate.



Other angles show how bad this was. WR isn't past the DB yet (but DB is moving the wrong way) when Carr delivers the ball. He could have held it another second and had an easy basket throw.

...



Fade route, not a big window, over his head

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Deep throw challenging this coverage, over his head. No pressure, Carr doesn't step up.

...


Throws from one of his tighter pockets of the first half, accurate to Adams on the sideline

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No pressure, open WR, over his head

...




No pressure, slot WR (at the 25) breaking open, underthrows him by 3 yards

...




Deep drop, big pocket, big throw, WR's not open, INT dropped

...



Converts 4th down with accurate quick out against good coverage with DE coming into the picture

...



Nice pocket, tight coverage, accurate back shoulder, good catch by Adams, TD

...



No pressure, throws falling away for some reason, WR open along sidelines, throw spins him around, off hands OOB, incomplete

...




No pressure, WR has a couple of steps (already slowing down in the 2nd image, with the ball in the air), underthrown pass forces him to do a 180, ball hits LB in the back

...




Nice pocket, Carr steps into the throw, WR has a step or two, overthrown pass off his fingertips

...



Converts 3rd and 10 with accurate strike to Adams on a stop route, excellent anticipation, ball's in the air before he turns around.

...




Lots of time, no one's open, forces throw to Adams, INT

...

That's not comprehensive, but I think it's a fair summary.

He's got a few nice throws, including a couple with excellent intermediate accuracy (the 2nd TD and the first pass of the game) and a couple with excellent anticipation (especially the 1st TD).

But there are way too many misses, and a couple of them are terrible. I'd been told from reading the internets that Carr had trouble against USC because his line was getting blown up, but that isn't supported by the actual video (or the stats, Carr wasn't sacked, and the only decent QB hit I can find is the one I charted). He had time and space on several occasions to step up and make a better throw, but he seemed to rush the process and ended up missing the target frequently, several times by yards.

...

Now clearly this is worse than Carr usually was throwing deep. But if you put the SJSU and USC games together, it's easy to wonder if a major part of his earlier success was from taking advantage of terrible secondaries. Look at how tightly covered the receivers are in the USC game, that's the big difference, not the pass rush or pressure in Carr's face. And he makes a couple of the same mistakes, overthrowing a go route open by two steps (caught one handed for a TD against SJSU, off the fingertips against USC) and under throwing seam routes with the defender turned, where the WR has to do a 180 in midair and almost come back to the ball.

Again, I'm willing to believe that this is misleading somehow. Carr does have a strong arm, quick release, and several other talents. He can read defenses and throw with anticipation. He's a big enough body and he moves well. Plus he's a solid citizen with a good work ethic, and probably very coachable. Etc.

It's just that from what I've seen, he's not very good yet at throwing downfield accurately, as long as the receiver is reasonably well covered. So I really wonder if he's a good fit for our vertical offense.
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DJpillz317


Joined: 21 Oct 2012
Posts: 685
PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 3:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

^^^^USC was the dagger game for me on him personally, it killed what little hype I had for him previously.
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Prediction: Derek Carr = next Brandon Weeden; Zach Mett will be a good starter; Manziel will be a STAR.
Blake Bortles is going to be a Viking
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Slapdaddy


Joined: 28 Dec 2006
Posts: 899
Location: Los Angeles
PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 5:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vikingsrule wrote:
jshowers wrote:
Mike Evans standing next to Johnathan Football at pro day:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BryanBroaddus/status/449218156553203712/photo/1?screen_name=BryanBroaddus


That's a NFL QB?

Or is Evans just that big?


That's not Manziel...it's another WR
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Klomp


Joined: 11 Aug 2011
Posts: 6975
PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 6:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Slapdaddy wrote:
That's not Manziel...it's another WR


Correct. Heres the two of them

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QB_Guru


Joined: 07 Mar 2014
Posts: 43
PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 7:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not many people know that Carr separated his shoulder in the Utah St. game and didn't even practice for the USC game until a couple of days before the game. He still played the game with the injury.

There were a couple of times he was grimacing when he got hit on his shoulder. Here is a link of his head coach talking about it during an interview. He also throws in a cheap plug for JFF since he is still loyal to Texas A&M
http://cleveland.cbslocal.com/2014/03/03/tim-deruyter-says-derek-carrs-face-of-franchise-guy-but-manziels-got-a-larger-upside/
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xmichaelp


Joined: 30 Mar 2013
Posts: 1960
Location: Minnesnowta
PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 9:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dolmonite26 wrote:
Would really love to see some examples of Carr flinching or just running from the pocket at the very first sight of pressure, would really love to see some examples of him feeling ghost pressure.

Because frankly there's just about zero video evidence of the guy being timid or afraid of pressure and contact. Showcasing his accuracy "under pressure" does not prove much


This. It's so overblown.
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dc_vikingfan


Joined: 04 Dec 2006
Posts: 2211
Location: Washington DC
PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 9:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Starting to like the idea of drafting Dri Archer as Norv style of 3rd down RB.
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I love how everyone says "draft BPA" and we draft BPA and everyone still whines. Laughing
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Purplexing


Joined: 13 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 10:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

xmichaelp wrote:
Dolmonite26 wrote:
Would really love to see some examples of Carr flinching or just running from the pocket at the very first sight of pressure, would really love to see some examples of him feeling ghost pressure.

Because frankly there's just about zero video evidence of the guy being timid or afraid of pressure and contact. Showcasing his accuracy "under pressure" does not prove much


This. It's so overblown.


IMO, every QB on the table has some bad plays on vid we can discover.

The more important question is do they indicate a long term problem, or something that can be corrected?

Further, pro QBs will have bad plays. We hope the Vikes QBOTF will have few of them, and they won't be significant and change the course of a game.

GMs and coaches looking at vid for JM, Carr, Bridgewater, and Bortles will be looking for more than just good and bad plays, and the end results of each play. Some of the successes and failures in those plays are or may be mainly attributable to teammates and performance of the defenders and their coaches.

I wouldn't put too much weight on one or a few bad plays anyone can find and post on the internet. Or, one or a few articles by sports journalists.
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CriminalMind


Joined: 25 Aug 2011
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 10:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you want a QB who is very accurate throwing screen passess against weak competition, but not accurate throwing beyond 10 yards against weak competition, then Carr is your guy.
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 10:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

CriminalMind wrote:
If you want a QB who is very accurate throwing screen passess against weak competition, but not accurate throwing beyond 10 yards against weak competition, then Carr is your guy.

Quite the over-simplification and also quite false.
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vike daddy


Most Valuable Poster (2nd Ballot)

Joined: 12 Mar 2005
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 11:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

CriminalMind wrote:
If you want a QB who is very accurate throwing screen passess against weak competition, but not accurate throwing beyond 10 yards against weak competition, then Carr is your guy.

hmmm...

Think


it might be a better discussion if you just tout the guy(s) you like, instead of trying to discredit a qb you don't.

just a suggestion.
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CriminalMind


Joined: 25 Aug 2011
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 11:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

rpmwr19 wrote:
CriminalMind wrote:
If you want a QB who is very accurate throwing screen passess against weak competition, but not accurate throwing beyond 10 yards against weak competition, then Carr is your guy.

Quite the over-simplification and also quite false.


Maybe a tad oversimplification, but certaintly not false.
He has a great personality and character tho, and I do think he is coachable. However, being coachable does not necessarily mean mistakes are "fixable". He does have the great arm, but he can't use his arm in a mannor to do what "he wants" now.
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vike daddy


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 11:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

CriminalMind wrote:
being coachable does not necessarily mean mistakes are "fixable".

is this true for Manziel too, or only Carr?
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CriminalMind


Joined: 25 Aug 2011
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 11:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vike daddy wrote:
CriminalMind wrote:
being coachable does not necessarily mean mistakes are "fixable".

is this true for Manziel too, or only Carr?


Its true for every QB.
I would say that Carr is more coachable then Manziel.
Also, for the record I'm not pulling for Manziel/Carr/Bortles at #8.
Tho I do have a peking order if RS is set on QB at #8 (tho I hope he is not)
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Last edited by CriminalMind on Sat Mar 29, 2014 11:12 am; edited 1 time in total
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 11:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

CriminalMind wrote:
rpmwr19 wrote:
CriminalMind wrote:
If you want a QB who is very accurate throwing screen passess against weak competition, but not accurate throwing beyond 10 yards against weak competition, then Carr is your guy.

Quite the over-simplification and also quite false.


Maybe a tad oversimplification, but certaintly not false.
He has a great personality and character tho, and I do think he is coachable. However, being coachable does not necessarily mean mistakes are "fixable". He does have the great arm, but he can't use his arm in a mannor to do what "he wants" now.

Now, I have rather poor eyesight and when it comes to distinguishing colors, particularly dark ones, I do have struggles, but in the intermediate range (10-20 yards) I see many more red dots, and larger red dots, than blue dots in that area.



Red good, blue bad. Beyond 20 yards you may have an argument of Carr being inaccurate, but aside from Manziel's gaudy numbers most QBs are more inaccurate there. Top accuracy in the NfL last year beyond 25 yards was 48%.
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