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Vikings Draft Discussion 6.0- 41 days!
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Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
Posts: 1997
PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 12:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Concern with Carr #2: he was playing against a bunch of scrubs, and when the competition got tougher, he struggled

I haven't watched all of Carr's games, but maybe 4-5 of them from this year. In a couple of them, his WRs are wide open on almost every throw. He put up some great stats, but in a few of those games, he was hardly facing any opposition.

The San Jose State game is the best example of the ones I've seen. Carr put up eye popping numbers:
38/50 for 519, 6 TDs, 1 INT

But he was hardly facing any opposition.

Check out these screen shots from that game, with captions:


1st TD, overthrows wide open WR who has to stretch to make one handed grab



3rd TD, 2 steps into a fade route against press man coverage, Adams is ridiculously open, easy completion


Catching the defense on a change, WR uncovered, walks in


zone "coverage" I guess


5th TD, this initially looks like an NFL throw, splitting the coverage downfield. But on the replay...


The receiver isn't covered! Shallow zone guy lets him run by and the nearest deep guy is 7 yards away. Should be an easy TD, but...


Carr guns it for no reason, and the WR has to accelerate and go to ground


to make a needlessly difficult catch.


Another wide open target.


Pass short of the sticks on 3rd and 14, CB whiffs on the tackle, Adams gains another 25 yards (one of at least 3 missed tackles downfield in that game producing big YAC).


This WR is open.


Carr underthrows him...


...to the point that he has to do a 180 to reach back for the ball


The CB never looks for the ball, just reaches up and knocks it away


Davante Adams is running past a LB in zone coverage, who's back-pedalling with his eyes on the QB, not turning to chase. Carr has time but throws a jump ball too soon, and too shallow



INT

Here's a link to the play: https://www.youtube.com/watch&v=AWi2cmwK8-U#t=714

You can see that Carr has a bit of pressure but a good pocket, has room to step forward but stands up and flicks the ball instead of driving it. You can see Adams is running free past the LB, who's looking in the backfield without chasing, and there's no safety help. If Carr waits half a second longer and throws it 10 yards farther, it's a TD.

Worse, they needed to win that game to get a chance at a BCS bowl game (Fresno St were 10-0 at that point in the season). When Carr threw the INT, they were down 2 scores with 11 minutes left. They needed a score on that drive, their defense was terrible. But he threw it up for grabs to a LB who was badly outmatched, standing still and letting their #1 WR run right past him.

Just a brutal mistake.

...

To be sure, Carr makes some nice throws in that game. There are a couple of crisp outs across the field and a nice deep ball for the 2nd TD, against decent coverage. He hits most of his short routes and has some nice scrambles. It's not like he's terrible.

But you watch that game carefully, and count the easy throws, and the WRs who have to leave their feet to make catches (sometimes even when wide open) and you think, this isn't going to work against a better defense. And it didn't -- when they played USC the windows were tighter (but even then Carr had several bad misses on longer throws to WRs who were open), and most of that production vanished.

...

Now maybe this is the wrong game to evaluate Carr on. The only other ones I've watched this closely are Rutgers (screen pass city) and USC (pretty bad). If someone can point me to a better game to review, I'm happy to take suggestions. Maybe this is just him on a bad day.

But unlike Manziel against LSU and Missouri (as I showed on that thread, his stats there were completely unlike his performance the rest of the year), this is Carr looking pretty good by the numbers. His YPA and completion percentage are great, he has 6 TDs, and I'm sure his completion percentage at various distances is at least as good as in the Rotoworld charting.

So I wonder. If this is Carr at his usual, it's not as great as it looks on paper. He does have a big arm, but the lack of accuracy downfield, even to open targets, is disturbing. I'm not confident that he's going to get much more accurate in the pros, even in a different system.
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Klomp


Joined: 11 Aug 2011
Posts: 6862
PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 1:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

OK, so he wasn't perfect. But to critique him on accuracy when he completed 76% of his passes is a little ridiculous.

Are you going to break down Peyton Manning's 7 TD game and call his incompletions disturbing too?
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arKnaD7


Joined: 16 Mar 2006
Posts: 2030
PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 1:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, that is very nitpicky IMO. You could spin most of those plays as "throwing it in a spot only his WR can catch it", "heady QB play", "protecting his WR", or "finding holes in the defense".
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Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
Posts: 1997
PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 1:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm only criticizing 4 passes in the SJSU game:

1. overthrown deep ball to wide open WR (one handed catch, TD)
2. line drive takes WR to ground on seam route, uncovered (TD, but more challenging than needed) -- this isn't an inaccurate throw but it's a long way from "heady"
3. underthrown deep route (pass defensed)
4. underthrown middle route past LB (INT)

Of those, #2 is nitpicky, the other 3 are pretty bad in the guy we imagine running the Air Coryell.

The other screenshots show how open some of his targets were. 76% completion rate when the defense doesn't show up is nice but I don't know how you project it to the NFL.

...

Here's the link to the game -- http://draftbreakdown.com/video/derek-carr-vs-san-jose-state-2013/

Feel free to link to specific plays (right click, "copy URL at current time") or take screenshots (cmd-shift-4 on Mac then upload to imgur) to make the opposite case.
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Lil Uno


Joined: 17 Sep 2007
Posts: 7811
PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 1:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's a fair argument. San Jose State forgot to play defense that day and Carr missed on some potential difference makers.

I don't agree that his accuracy can't get better or it's too crippling to overcome. You have to remember that Carr's biggest flaw is his footwork. It leads to inconsistent ball placement. It's why the most common NFL comparison is Jay Cutler. Cutler still has problems with his footwork. Watch Cutler highlights and you'll see him under throw a open guy or throw behind crossing recievers, though he has more than enough to get it to these places. Even if Carr can't develop his footwork, I'm fine with a Jay Cutler. Cutler has always been a high INT guy but his arm can put points up in a hurry. He isn't the best decision maker but he can make throws other QBs can only dream of. That's the type of player I believe Carr will be at the next level.

For the most part I view Bridgewater as a low floor, moderately high ceiling. Bortles a bust, and Manziel/Carr as boom or bust guys.
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Krauser


Joined: 20 Apr 2013
Posts: 1997
PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 2:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I won't have to be nitpicky if I go through my screenshots from the USC bowl game.

Here's the link if you want to follow along: http://draftbreakdown.com/video/derek-carr-vs-usc-2013/

I'll include good and bad plays (they're mostly bad).

Carr ends up 29/54 (54%) for 216, 2 TDs, 1 INT. Those numbers are flattering once you watch the video. Of the 216 yards, I'll bet well over 100 are YAC, nearly all of his completions are screen passes or quick routes.

Highlights and lowlights, with my captions.


Starts with a bang, accurate back shoulder throw against tight coverage for 16

...



Rolls right, draws rusher to him, has checkdown wide open, throw takes him to ground, incomplete -- defensive holding penalty

...


throwing from clean pocket, wide open WR for TD, throws it out the back of the end zone, bad miss

...



TD #1: free rusher, leans back, fires a strike to narrow window on slant, right on the money, NFL throw. End zone view shows his excellent anticipation here.

...


In the middle of that muddy pocket, accurate checkdown, YAC

...




Read-option, rolls right, sets feet with just enough time to throw facing free rusher. Inaccurate throw to open WR, pulls him off his feet, incomplete (still probably catchable)

...


Carr hangs in pocket and throws deep but well covered. WR pushes off, then drops the pass anyway. OPI penalty. Carr takes a hit, gets up favouring his left shoulder.

...


3rd and 4 quick to slot WR with 7 yard cushion but ball placement is behind him, no YAC, 1st down by penalty anyway

...



No pressure, forces out route, CB breaks on it, gets hand on it, no INT as pass too high. Poor read saved by poor accuracy.

...




WR comes wide open after a pump fake / double move. Carr has time to throw, space to step up, but throws too soon and lobs it too far. TD if he's accurate.



Other angles show how bad this was. WR isn't past the DB yet (but DB is moving the wrong way) when Carr delivers the ball. He could have held it another second and had an easy basket throw.

...



Fade route, not a big window, over his head

...



Deep throw challenging this coverage, over his head. No pressure, Carr doesn't step up.

...


Throws from one of his tighter pockets of the first half, accurate to Adams on the sideline

...



No pressure, open WR, over his head

...




No pressure, slot WR (at the 25) breaking open, underthrows him by 3 yards

...




Deep drop, big pocket, big throw, WR's not open, INT dropped

...



Converts 4th down with accurate quick out against good coverage with DE coming into the picture

...



Nice pocket, tight coverage, accurate back shoulder, good catch by Adams, TD

...



No pressure, throws falling away for some reason, WR open along sidelines, throw spins him around, off hands OOB, incomplete

...




No pressure, WR has a couple of steps (already slowing down in the 2nd image, with the ball in the air), underthrown pass forces him to do a 180, ball hits LB in the back

...




Nice pocket, Carr steps into the throw, WR has a step or two, overthrown pass off his fingertips

...



Converts 3rd and 10 with accurate strike to Adams on a stop route, excellent anticipation, ball's in the air before he turns around.

...




Lots of time, no one's open, forces throw to Adams, INT

...

That's not comprehensive, but I think it's a fair summary.

He's got a few nice throws, including a couple with excellent intermediate accuracy (the 2nd TD and the first pass of the game) and a couple with excellent anticipation (especially the 1st TD).

But there are way too many misses, and a couple of them are terrible. I'd been told from reading the internets that Carr had trouble against USC because his line was getting blown up, but that isn't supported by the actual video (or the stats, Carr wasn't sacked, and the only decent QB hit I can find is the one I charted). He had time and space on several occasions to step up and make a better throw, but he seemed to rush the process and ended up missing the target frequently, several times by yards.

...

Now clearly this is worse than Carr usually was throwing deep. But if you put the SJSU and USC games together, it's easy to wonder if a major part of his earlier success was from taking advantage of terrible secondaries. Look at how tightly covered the receivers are in the USC game, that's the big difference, not the pass rush or pressure in Carr's face. And he makes a couple of the same mistakes, overthrowing a go route open by two steps (caught one handed for a TD against SJSU, off the fingertips against USC) and under throwing seam routes with the defender turned, where the WR has to do a 180 in midair and almost come back to the ball.

Again, I'm willing to believe that this is misleading somehow. Carr does have a strong arm, quick release, and several other talents. He can read defenses and throw with anticipation. He's a big enough body and he moves well. Plus he's a solid citizen with a good work ethic, and probably very coachable. Etc.

It's just that from what I've seen, he's not very good yet at throwing downfield accurately, as long as the receiver is reasonably well covered. So I really wonder if he's a good fit for our vertical offense.
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DJpillz317


Joined: 21 Oct 2012
Posts: 682
PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 3:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

^^^^USC was the dagger game for me on him personally, it killed what little hype I had for him previously.
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Blake Bortles is going to be a Viking
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Slapdaddy


Joined: 28 Dec 2006
Posts: 892
Location: Los Angeles
PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 5:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

vikingsrule wrote:
jshowers wrote:
Mike Evans standing next to Johnathan Football at pro day:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BryanBroaddus/status/449218156553203712/photo/1?screen_name=BryanBroaddus


That's a NFL QB?

Or is Evans just that big?


That's not Manziel...it's another WR
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Klomp


Joined: 11 Aug 2011
Posts: 6862
PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 6:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Slapdaddy wrote:
That's not Manziel...it's another WR


Correct. Heres the two of them

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QB_Guru


Joined: 07 Mar 2014
Posts: 41
PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 7:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Not many people know that Carr separated his shoulder in the Utah St. game and didn't even practice for the USC game until a couple of days before the game. He still played the game with the injury.

There were a couple of times he was grimacing when he got hit on his shoulder. Here is a link of his head coach talking about it during an interview. He also throws in a cheap plug for JFF since he is still loyal to Texas A&M
http://cleveland.cbslocal.com/2014/03/03/tim-deruyter-says-derek-carrs-face-of-franchise-guy-but-manziels-got-a-larger-upside/
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xmichaelp


Joined: 30 Mar 2013
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 9:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dolmonite26 wrote:
Would really love to see some examples of Carr flinching or just running from the pocket at the very first sight of pressure, would really love to see some examples of him feeling ghost pressure.

Because frankly there's just about zero video evidence of the guy being timid or afraid of pressure and contact. Showcasing his accuracy "under pressure" does not prove much


This. It's so overblown.
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dc_vikingfan


Joined: 04 Dec 2006
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 9:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Starting to like the idea of drafting Dri Archer as Norv style of 3rd down RB.
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Purplexing


Joined: 13 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 10:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

xmichaelp wrote:
Dolmonite26 wrote:
Would really love to see some examples of Carr flinching or just running from the pocket at the very first sight of pressure, would really love to see some examples of him feeling ghost pressure.

Because frankly there's just about zero video evidence of the guy being timid or afraid of pressure and contact. Showcasing his accuracy "under pressure" does not prove much


This. It's so overblown.


IMO, every QB on the table has some bad plays on vid we can discover.

The more important question is do they indicate a long term problem, or something that can be corrected?

Further, pro QBs will have bad plays. We hope the Vikes QBOTF will have few of them, and they won't be significant and change the course of a game.

GMs and coaches looking at vid for JM, Carr, Bridgewater, and Bortles will be looking for more than just good and bad plays, and the end results of each play. Some of the successes and failures in those plays are or may be mainly attributable to teammates and performance of the defenders and their coaches.

I wouldn't put too much weight on one or a few bad plays anyone can find and post on the internet. Or, one or a few articles by sports journalists.
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CriminalMind


Joined: 25 Aug 2011
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PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 10:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you want a QB who is very accurate throwing screen passess against weak competition, but not accurate throwing beyond 10 yards against weak competition, then Carr is your guy.
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rpmwr19


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PostPosted: Sat Mar 29, 2014 10:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

CriminalMind wrote:
If you want a QB who is very accurate throwing screen passess against weak competition, but not accurate throwing beyond 10 yards against weak competition, then Carr is your guy.

Quite the over-simplification and also quite false.
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