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Mock #3

 
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FalconJosh


Joined: 09 Feb 2014
Posts: 17
Location: Wisconsin
PostPosted: Tue Feb 25, 2014 12:27 pm    Post subject: Mock #3 Reply with quote

I did a different scenario with this mock. Did this on the basis that Clowney, Mack, and we couldn't trade down.

1. DT AARON DONALD PITTSBURGH
2. G XAVIER SUA-FILO UCLA
3. DE CHRIS SMITH ARKANSAS
4. DT DANIEL MCCULLERS TENNESSEE
5. S KENNY LADLER VANDERBILT
6. OLB RON POWELL FLORIDA
7. CB/RS MARCUS WILLIAMS NORTH DAKOTA STATE

In my opinion id just rather take Donald at 6 (even though some may consider it a reach) than take Robinson. The ideal situation would be trading down to 10-12 range or so and take Donald while receiving a couple extra picks. Again this is just a scenario with Clowney and Mack off the board I would still take Clowney or Mack over Donald if available.
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JonnyQuest


Joined: 23 Jun 2011
Posts: 1871
PostPosted: Tue Feb 25, 2014 3:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd be calling for TD and Mike Smith's head if this were to happen.

Aaron Donald is a good prospect, but not remotely close to being a top 10 pick. There are so many other prospects we could take at 6 other than Donald. This is the strategy Jacksonville took with Alualu, and they got jipped because all they got was an average player at a top 10 price.
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swoosh


Joined: 03 Dec 2010
Posts: 9782
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 25, 2014 5:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

JonnyQuest wrote:
I'd be calling for TD and Mike Smith's head if this were to happen.

Aaron Donald is a good prospect, but not remotely close to being a top 10 pick. There are so many other prospects we could take at 6 other than Donald. This is the strategy Jacksonville took with Alualu, and they got jipped because all they got was an average player at a top 10 price.
What are Donald's weaknesses that make him "not remotely close to being a top 10 pick?" And don't say size. Size is not a weakness unless it effects your ability to perform a task. So if you think his size is a weakness, tell me why. I'm sick of hearing "he's too small" without backing it up with anything substantial. This isn't directed at you, just people in general who use it as a cop out when they have nothing else to say (usually from not actually watching players themselves and basing their opinions off the mainstream draft "gurus").

For me, I see Donald's size as a strength. He uses it to dip under lineman and get penetration. I hear people talk about how he will get pushed in the run game. This a common perception based off his size. Well, it's bogus (IMO, of course). Put on the tape and show me where this is the case. And yes I realize NFL lineman are much better. But that can be said about any prospect. His combine numbers match what I see on tape: despite his small size, he has a lot of power/strength. But more importantly, he's relentless. He's nasty. He reminds me of Watt in that aspect.

Screw the mainstream. Donald EASILY has a top 10 grade from me. Behind Clowney and Mack, he's who I want.

I've yet to hear a solid argument against Donald. I could be dead wrong about him and he could be a bust. But that doesn't mean you (not you you) were right about it. Great prospects bust all the time. It depends on many variables that simply can't be predicted or known by us. The best we can do is back up our opinions with strong, concrete details.

Oh, and screw the mainstream. Did I say that already?
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JonnyQuest


Joined: 23 Jun 2011
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PostPosted: Tue Feb 25, 2014 5:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, I like to go by market value. Why would we overpay for a prospect who, at this point, even with amazing combine numbers, has a ceiling of mid first round pick. Donald is GREAT value late first, early second, and a reach at #6.

Size is a detriment, especially when you play inside. I have NOT been a Donald size hater at all, but at #6, a pick in which you expect a game changing playmaker, you need to scrutinize every little aspect of the prospect. 285 is very light for a DT, and good mauling guards can take advantage of size differences very easily. Donald may have the advantage of leverage, but he also has short arms. Once a guard with long arms who is also much bigger than him gets his hands placed on his pads, Donald's options become extremely limited.

Had Tyson Alualu been picked late first round, he would be seen in a different light. However, since he was a top 10 pick, it's fair to say the Jags messed up. You can put on the tape of numerous busts and see that they dominated their collegiate competition. If Donald is our pick at 6, and he becomes just a Jonathan Babs, he will be considered a failure. If we pick him with our 2nd rounder and he becomes a Babs, he will be considered a good value pick.

Now we don't know what other teams thought of Lamar Holmes, but it sure seemed like TD was the only one with a 3rd round grade of him. Holmes was drafted above market value, and now is looking like a bust. Had we picked him even one round later, the pick wouldn't have seemed as bad.
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FalconJosh


Joined: 09 Feb 2014
Posts: 17
Location: Wisconsin
PostPosted: Tue Feb 25, 2014 6:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Like I said ideally you would want to trade down to mid first round and take Donald at that point. But I guess my question in regards to my mock is if the scenario in which Clowney and Mack are gone who you then draft if your unable to trade down? Donald, Robinson, Watkins (even though its not a pos. of need), or someone else?[/code][/quote]
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FalconFan13


Joined: 06 Jan 2007
Posts: 9831
PostPosted: Tue Feb 25, 2014 8:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If both Clowney and Mack are gone then i have no problems at all taking Donald at 10 i think he will be an amazing player in the nfl at one of our 3 biggest needs.

Robinson might be a choice as well for us unless you have him going already as well.
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mjmiller


Joined: 12 Mar 2008
Posts: 1596
PostPosted: Tue Feb 25, 2014 8:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

we gotta find a trade down in this situation. even if all we can get is a 3rd. so much talent late in this draft. we def cant get greedy in this mock.

grab Donald/Jernigan/Hagemen in the teens and then having an extra 3rd. it could get us back into the 1st round possibly. maybe grab Clinton-Dix if he falls. or maybe another one of the DTs if they fall.

would be nice.
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SpoonFed56


Joined: 11 Jan 2013
Posts: 1823
Location: GA
PostPosted: Tue Feb 25, 2014 10:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Agree w/ mjmiller would love a trade down but I like your mock... just a bit of a reach with Donald @6 (I'm still very high on him though). Load up on mid rounders hell even maybe a next years 1st would be great! Like it's been said over and over, this draft is so deep you can find starters day 2 easily
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birdman70


Joined: 22 Feb 2009
Posts: 685
Location: Brunswick,GA
PostPosted: Tue Feb 25, 2014 11:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree with the argument that market value determines that we get Donald at a lower price than a #6 pick. I supremely doubt that we're going to be able to trade down this year, draft depth at quality positions and TD hasn't shown that he'll consider that option. Unless one of the big 3 QBs falls to #6, I wouldn't be expecting a call. With the #6 pick, I would rather take Robinson than Donald. He could play different OL positions for us and could be a high production/low salary guy playing a premium position. Paying him would be cheaper than a mid/low type FA to play LT or RG.
As far as your other picks, I like most of them except Rd. 3. If we don't get Clowney, I would rather pick an OT than get another mid round depth guy. We've spent a lot of picks on that position lately, and I think we should let them play. Especially Massaquoi and Goodman.
Definitely like the Su'a Filo pick, he's versatile on the line as well.
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swoosh


Joined: 03 Dec 2010
Posts: 9782
Location: pnw, usa.
PostPosted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 12:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

JonnyQuest wrote:
Well, I like to go by market value. Why would we overpay for a prospect who, at this point, even with amazing combine numbers, has a ceiling of mid first round pick. Donald is GREAT value late first, early second, and a reach at #6.

Size is a detriment, especially when you play inside. I have NOT been a Donald size hater at all, but at #6, a pick in which you expect a game changing playmaker, you need to scrutinize every little aspect of the prospect. 285 is very light for a DT, and good mauling guards can take advantage of size differences very easily. Donald may have the advantage of leverage, but he also has short arms. Once a guard with long arms who is also much bigger than him gets his hands placed on his pads, Donald's options become extremely limited.

Had Tyson Alualu been picked late first round, he would be seen in a different light. However, since he was a top 10 pick, it's fair to say the Jags messed up. You can put on the tape of numerous busts and see that they dominated their collegiate competition. If Donald is our pick at 6, and he becomes just a Jonathan Babs, he will be considered a failure. If we pick him with our 2nd rounder and he becomes a Babs, he will be considered a good value pick.

Now we don't know what other teams thought of Lamar Holmes, but it sure seemed like TD was the only one with a 3rd round grade of him. Holmes was drafted above market value, and now is looking like a bust. Had we picked him even one round later, the pick wouldn't have seemed as bad.
I'll respond to the rest later (specifically about Donald), but when it comes to "market value" you don't know what that market value really is. What the mainstream draft community seems to think could be completely different than what executives and scout feel is the market value. For all we know, Donald could be viewed as a top 10 prospect by the majority of executives and scouts. That's something we don't know, so it's silly to say a pick is a reach or a bad one because said player was selected earlier than where the mainstream draft community thought he would be go.
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JonnyQuest


Joined: 23 Jun 2011
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PostPosted: Wed Feb 26, 2014 10:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Let's not get all hipster criticizing the "mainstream" opinion of prospects. You can have a different opinion for the sake of being different, but throughout the years, mainstream draft analysis has been a pretty accurate representation of the top prospects in the draft.
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