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PoWww's NE Patriots Mock Draft V1
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mcmurtry86


Joined: 02 Mar 2010
Posts: 24766
PostPosted: Thu Mar 06, 2014 11:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Richter wrote:

It's my opinion that Meriweather was a bad prospect, yes, and I think history bears that out as the correct one. That's not the discussion, which is that Meriweather was an impact prospect. If he was, he'd have gone a lot higher in a very mediocre draft.


Jon Beason went the next pick, guess he wasn't an impact prospect. Or Joe Staley. Or Dwayne Bowe who went one pick before Meriweather. I remember all three of those guys getting labeled as potential impact players and all of them have been very good players. As bad as the 2007 draft was, the first round actually had a number of quality players and hyped prospects (and huge flops).

Again, just because you didn't view him as an "impact" prospect doesn't mean that wasn't a reasonable assessment of him as a prospect back in 2007.
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Richter


Joined: 11 Feb 2010
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PostPosted: Thu Mar 06, 2014 11:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
Richter wrote:

It's my opinion that Meriweather was a bad prospect, yes, and I think history bears that out as the correct one. That's not the discussion, which is that Meriweather was an impact prospect. If he was, he'd have gone a lot higher in a very mediocre draft.


Jon Beason went the next pick, guess he wasn't an impact prospect. Or Joe Staley. Or Dwayne Bowe who went one pick before Meriweather. I remember all three of those guys getting labeled as potential impact players and all of them have been very good players. As bad as the 2007 draft was, the first round actually had a number of quality players and hyped prospects (and huge flops).

Again, just because you didn't view him as an "impact" prospect doesn't mean that wasn't a reasonable assessment of him as a prospect back in 2007.

So the argument that a couple guys that went around him were more hyped and/or successful means that Meriweather was an impact prospect? That's some pretty dubious logic. Of course, I think you're missing the point entirely, and conflating the player with the prospect. Unless a draft is considered abnormally deep, it's pretty rare for guys going at the tail end of the first round to be considered impact prospects, because if that was the perception, they'd go higher in the draft. Unless you think teams drafting in the single digits or low teens are intentionally passing on players that they think are better prospects for guys with a lesser perception. Nobody was throwing parades for Joe Staley, but they were for Joe Thomas, by comparison. I don't remember anyone in the mainstream sports media fawning over Meriweather in such a way that I'd peg him as a significantly more attractive prospect than guys that went higher in that same draft. And I remember a few analysts openly questioning the pick, mostly due to Meriweather's relative lack of stature. Ultimately, my opinion of Meriweather at the time as a prospect is irrelevant to this discussion anyway, because we're discussing how he was portrayed, and my recollection directly conflicts with yours.
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mcmurtry86


Joined: 02 Mar 2010
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PostPosted: Fri Mar 07, 2014 12:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Richter wrote:

So the argument that a couple guys that went around him were more hyped and/or successful means that Meriweather was an impact prospect? That's some pretty dubious logic.


No it doesn't. But your claim was that "If he was, he'd have gone a lot higher in a very mediocre draft". Which is dubious logic indeed. Unless you want to claim that Beason, Bowe and Staley were not regarded as potential impact prospects. My claim here is that being selected 24th has nothing to do with whether or not he was an impact player - which conflicts with the correlation you tried to draw between draft slot and "impact.

Quote:
Of course, I think you're missing the point entirely, and conflating the player with the prospect. Unless a draft is considered abnormally deep, it's pretty rare for guys going at the tail end of the first round to be considered impact prospects, because if that was the perception, they'd go higher in the draft.


Again, I think we're differing on our definitions of "impact". I'd view many of the following guys selected between 20-30 over the past 15 years to have been considered "impact" prospects. Probably 3-4 per draft.

Quote:
Unless you think teams drafting in the single digits or low teens are intentionally passing on players that they think are better prospects for guys with a lesser perception


Obviously not

Quote:
Nobody was throwing parades for Joe Staley, but they were for Joe Thomas, by comparison. I don't remember anyone in the mainstream sports media fawning over Meriweather in such a way that I'd peg him as a significantly more attractive prospect than guys that went higher in that same draft.


When did I ever mention fawning or parades? You're the one who introduced media hype into this discussion (Landry). I am simply talking about the player's ceiling. And most scouting reports of Meriweather was that he had high-end starting caliber upside. To me, that's an impact prospect.

Here are the first two scouting reports that an internet search pulled up:

Quote:
He is a tremendous athlete with outstanding hands and exceptional closing speed to the ball. His talent and potential are never in question, but his conduct both on and off the field may be a concern for his new team. Meriweather continues to improve and has all the ability and talent to become an impact player at the next level. His conduct aside, he clearly has an unbelievable upside to become a playmaker for many years to come in the NFL. He should be one of the top defensive backs selected in the draft, most likely going in the mid-to-late first round.


http://www.fftoolbox.com/nfl_draft/profile_display.cfm?prospect_id=1167

Quote:

Compares To: ED REED-Baltimore Whenever the Ravens need a big play, it is Reed who is likely to come through with it, not Ray Lewis. Meriweather is in the same mold as Reed, as he uses his excellent route recognition skills and range to consistently shut down his pass coverage assignments. He is not the biggest player you will find, but he has enough functional strength and outstanding range to excel at free safety (lacks bulk to be an NFL strong safety).


http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/players/historical/416743

Now I know you loathe and bash pretty much every draft "expert" out there, but I'm just trying to illustrate the idea that it's not crazy to think that many people considered him as an impact prospect. Whether or not that was an accurate assessment of him is irrelevant. At the time, April 2007, he was viewed as a guy with legitimate playmaking skills, versatility, athleticism and a willingness to make plays in the run game.

Quote:
And I remember a few analysts openly questioning the pick, mostly due to Meriweather's relative lack of stature. Ultimately, my opinion of Meriweather at the time as a prospect is irrelevant to this discussion anyway, because we're discussing how he was portrayed, and my recollection directly conflicts with yours.


He was generally regarded as a mid-late 1st rounder due to his character issues and less prototypical size compared to the other top safety prospects that year. Virtually every scouting report, pro and amateur that I can find and/or recall made mention of his playmaking ability, starting upside, athleticism and overall talent level.

My point was only that the view the OP has in thinking the Pats don't care about finding a high end safety and thus won't draft Pryor is misguided. They've tried quite hard to address the safety spot over the years and the implication that Pryor is more of an "impact" prospect compared to the way Meriweather was perceived isn't something I agree with.

Anyway, you can have the last word on this because it's not really worth either of our times to continue this.
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Richter


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PostPosted: Fri Mar 07, 2014 2:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
No it doesn't. But your claim was that "If he was, he'd have gone a lot higher in a very mediocre draft". Which is dubious logic indeed.

It's dubious logic to say that if a guy was regarded as a better prospect at the time, he would have gone higher in the draft? It would necessarily mean that unless the teams drafting near the top were intentionally passing on prospect they regarded as being superior, that he would go higher.

mcmurtry86 wrote:
Now I know you loathe and bash pretty much every draft "expert" out there

Do you blame me, considering someone actually compared Meriweather to Ed Reed? If they didn't go to the same school, does that comparison ever get made? I have plenty of nice things to say about Ed Reed as a safety, but being a downhill, big hitting player at the position is not one of them, and that's what Meriweather had a reputation as coming out. But yeah, I won't disagree with your point that there were analysts that were high on him. My point is, as high as they might have been on Meriweather, they weren't putting him ahead of Landry, or anyone else in the top 20. So your contention that we have a different definition of impact prospect is probably spot on.

mcmurtry86 wrote:
My point was only that the view the OP has in thinking the Pats don't care about finding a high end safety and thus won't draft Pryor is misguided. They've tried quite hard to address the safety spot over the years and the implication that Pryor is more of an "impact" prospect compared to the way Meriweather was perceived isn't something I agree with.

I definitely agree with the notion that the Patriots value and have invested in the safety position. I think their poor track record drafting at the position colors that perception. I do think Pryor has an edge over Meriweather in the perception department, since he's been discussed as the first safety off the board in this draft at times, moving ahead of Clinton-Dix. Do I think that happens? Probably not now, given the three inches he lost between his college career and the combine. But ultimately, they're likely to go in the same draft range, and have a similar consensus about their prospects as NFL players amongst draftniks. Of course, I like Pryor and loathed Meriweather, so who are you going to trust, me or them?
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