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The TT Conundrum: FA, Fair Market Valuations & Cap Space
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HyponGrey


Joined: 23 Jun 2012
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 6:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

byzr wrote:
Shields and Raji should be BIG NAME FAs. what are the chances we tag and trade one of them? hopefully Raji more so than Shields seeing as Shields is more valuable to us.
Zero. We tag Shields and get a deal done. Raji walks across the border.
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ugLymayNe


Joined: 31 Oct 2006
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Location: Wisconsin
PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 6:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

HyponGrey wrote:
byzr wrote:
Shields and Raji should be BIG NAME FAs. what are the chances we tag and trade one of them? hopefully Raji more so than Shields seeing as Shields is more valuable to us.
Zero. We tag Shields and get a deal done. Raji walks across the border.


South or west?

To be honest, if the Packers set a price on Raji around 5-6 million I could live with it. I really don't want to see him walk and start playing like we think he could.
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squire12


Joined: 15 Mar 2013
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 9:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ugLymayNe wrote:
HyponGrey wrote:
byzr wrote:
Shields and Raji should be BIG NAME FAs. what are the chances we tag and trade one of them? hopefully Raji more so than Shields seeing as Shields is more valuable to us.
Zero. We tag Shields and get a deal done. Raji walks across the border.


South or west?

To be honest, if the Packers set a price on Raji around 5-6 million I could live with it. I really don't want to see him walk and start playing like we think he could.


But the flip side of that is paying him $8M/year for 4-5 years with a big signing bonus and getting little quality play. Hurts the cap going forward with Cobb, Nelson and others to sign in the next few years.
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Tongue-Splitter


Joined: 30 Aug 2013
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 9:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

ugLymayNe wrote:
South or west?

To be honest, if the Packers set a price on Raji around 5-6 million I could live with it. I really don't want to see him walk and start playing like we think he could.

Problem is that he's never going to play the way we think he could play here. At the very least, not with Capers as coordinator, or not without catering to him. Everybody who looked could see that Raji didn't play with any heart this year, and not much heart ever since we won the Super Bowl. I'd love for him to go to the AFC, have a great year and get us a third round comp pick because he will never do anything for Green Bay in Green Bay.
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ChaRisMa


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 11:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think you've got a couple guys coming back that won't be and a couple guys overpaid totaling about 3 Million in excess. And I'd bet that there is an additional 3 Million in veterans that will be replaced by cheaper players--street free agents and rookies with very low value deals.

50/50 on keeping Tramon myself. This day and age of rollover cap has me thinking he's completely gone--with the money being spent on our own guys later.

Also not sure I'd offer EDS more than 2 Mil. Not sure you can pay out that much to the OL between the 5 of them. Ideally you have 2 of them in Rookie deals. With Bulaga's deal expiring soon, not sure the EDS commitment isn't also a step away from Bulaga and his health issues.
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British


Joined: 11 Sep 2010
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 11:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't see us trying hard to keep EDS.

I think it's likely Tretter gets the C gig in camp and if you've just resigned a backup for starter money on a mufti year deal you kill your cap.

Bakhtiari is also an outside C candidate if Sherrod shows up in camp.

Not like TT to have the three interior OL all on second contracts, two of which are pretty rich. We need to save some $.
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squire12


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 11:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

British wrote:
I don't see us trying hard to keep EDS.

I think it's likely Tretter gets the C gig in camp and if you've just resigned a backup for starter money on a mufti year deal you kill your cap.

Bakhtiari is also an outside C candidate if Sherrod shows up in camp.

Not like TT to have the three interior OL all on second contracts, two of which are pretty rich. We need to save some $.


Good points, but you need to decide on the FA long before you know if Tretter can be the starter at center and whether Sherrod will be much of a player.
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ugLymayNe


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 11:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looking at FA and the draft, our holes on the DL have REALLY bad timing. Pickett/Raji are the best NT types as free agents. There is Linval Joseph who would be an immediate upgrade(but will cost more than we can afford). Besides him................... Aubrayo Franklin(worse than both Raji/Pickett IMO), Terrence Cody(LOL), Colin Cole(Been there done that) and Jay Ratliff(doesn't 2-gap).

In the draft there's really only Louis Nix, DaQuan Jones(can he play NT in our scheme?), Daniel McCullers, Justin Ellis, Zach Kerr and Beau Allen. We need to resign one of our guys. Pickett is more likely, I guess. Wish the Packers could have grabbed John Jenkins last offseason.
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RashaanSalaami


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 23, 2014 12:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ChaRisMa wrote:
I think you've got a couple guys coming back that won't be and a couple guys overpaid totaling about 3 Million in excess. And I'd bet that there is an additional 3 Million in veterans that will be replaced by cheaper players--street free agents and rookies with very low value deals.

50/50 on keeping Tramon myself. This day and age of rollover cap has me thinking he's completely gone--with the money being spent on our own guys later.

Also not sure I'd offer EDS more than 2 Mil. Not sure you can pay out that much to the OL between the 5 of them. Ideally you have 2 of them in Rookie deals. With Bulaga's deal expiring soon, not sure the EDS commitment isn't also a step away from Bulaga and his health issues.


Do you have any specific contracts in mind? Maybe I just open up a competition-like thread to see what people guesstimate these FAs will get just for the hell of it.

I do understand the sentiment with EDS and the future of the OL. It's even more of a concern considering how our resources could be allocated. Generally, you want the tackles making the big bucks and the interior OL a little cheaper, but the way we have it now, we have 2 well-compensated guards and a center that may be paid like an above average starter. I'm not sure that's where he is, but it's hard to just lose that guy after the chemistry our line had by the end of the year. With Bulaga's contract coming up, it'll be interesting to see if that factors in. Considering he finished two seasons on the IR, I'm not sure if that'll be as big a compensating factor though.
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ugLymayNe


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 23, 2014 12:34 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RashaanSalaami wrote:
Do you have any specific contracts in mind



If we extended/restructured Tramon's contract how much would we theoretically save? Say we added two years to his deal.
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rbens06


Joined: 07 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:14 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

ugLymayNe wrote:
RashaanSalaami wrote:
Do you have any specific contracts in mind



If we extended/restructured Tramon's contract how much would we theoretically save? Say we added two years to his deal.


Really depends on how they work the contract and what Tramon is looking for. They could rework it to a small base, say veteran minimum salary, and the rest in signing bonus to spread it over the life of the contact. Odds are the Packers don't want this because he will be on the books for each of those years. Otherwise we can lower the salary drastically, but make more/all of it guaranteed. Pretty much what we did with Driver the last year of his contract. Either way I would safely assume we could save in the ballpark of $3-5 million this year. Not quite the $7.5 million we save by cutting him outright, but we don't have to replace him either and we maintain a veteran presence in our secondary.
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HUDSONandGRUDEN


Joined: 11 Jan 2012
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Our players have systematically been under-rated on the market. Jones coming back had everything to do with that, Jennings got a tad more than we offered but from the Vikings. I think Shields is gonna test the market and re-choose Green Bay. Just think we flat out pass on Jones and EDS. Finley is all medical, as is Jolly, and can't see us bringing back Pickett. Raji might be a philosophical decision. He's young experienced and the frame and movement you look for in a guy like that. That would be all of TT's top 10 picks under-performing massively.

TBH we can all talk about Jones and Burnett getting overpaid, but IMO it all lands on Mathews. You simply can't be elite if 13-15 M per season is going to a guy who isn't on the field. Hamstring and thumb don't look helpful long term.
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Tongue-Splitter


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Why is there this pervading sense that Shields is going to test the open market? Do people forget completely about the Franchise Tag? Just because we don't use it every year doesn't mean we won't use it this year if Shields gets anywhere close to the open market. We all know his value, and surely so does Thompson and Company. They're not going to let him get away without getting something in return this year. Considering he could land a second round pick, we're not going to give that up for the possibility of a third round pick next year.
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TheBitzMan


Joined: 21 Jan 2013
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PostPosted: Thu Jan 23, 2014 11:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

driftwood wrote:


back to miami to reunite with philbin?

the dolphins & raiders both need a starting CB & both have familiarity with sammy

the possibility of losing sammy would have been much easier to deal with if House decided not to schit the bed this season

out of all the defensive players that had bad years, i think House was probably the one that hurt the most in terms of future plans with this team

going into 2013 our CB's were loaded with talent (TW, Sammy, House, Hyde, CH)... now TW is entering a super inflated contract year, sammy is a UFA, house is MIA, CH is coming off a lost season, & hyde might be a safety by the start of 2014

12 months literally flipped that whole position group upside down


From Zach Kruse: The #Packers took Davon House 23 spots ahead of Richard Sherman in 2011 and Morgan Burnett 62 spots ahead of Kam Chancellor in 2010.

Granted Chancellor wouldnt be as good playing next to the Doctor but in hindsight we missed on Sherman by just that much. House and Sherman graded out similarly can't really fault TT for taking House. Amazing how these things play out. Wonder if Sherman was even on his radar.

I hope Shields is back. Personally I would pay him even if it means not being able to extend Jordy/Cobb/Bulaga. Rodgers is getting paid to make everyone better as he does. We need to fix the D and losing one of the best players isnt the way to do it. Rather not tie up a large amount of our cap in weapons for Rodgers and let the D continue to regress by losing its cornerstones.

My guess is Shields gets $8 mil per year. The amount we originally slotted for Raji.
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rbens06


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PostPosted: Thu Jan 23, 2014 11:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tongue-Splitter wrote:
Why is there this pervading sense that Shields is going to test the open market? Do people forget completely about the Franchise Tag? Just because we don't use it every year doesn't mean we won't use it this year if Shields gets anywhere close to the open market. We all know his value, and surely so does Thompson and Company. They're not going to let him get away without getting something in return this year. Considering he could land a second round pick, we're not going to give that up for the possibility of a third round pick next year.


The tag number will be about $11 million for cornerbacks in 2014, so TT might not want to put all of that money into Shields if a deal does not look imminent. For example, we used it on Pickett, but we also extended him fairly quickly after we placed it on him. The tag allowed us to negotiate exclusively with him for an extended period of time. However, if Shields and the Packers are still really far apart the question might be does TT want to commit that much money to a player that might/probably only be there for one more season. There is a good chance TT might say goodbye to Shields in that scenario and use the money earmarked for him to get others, maybe Raji, back or extend guys that are scheduled for free agency next year, like Nelson or Cobb.

On a side note it is interesting that we have a few guys that the franchise tag would be ideal for to retain for that extra year, but the cost of the tag for any one of those guys is probably too high to actually use on anyone. Arguably we could see the tag applied to Shields (about $11 million), Raji (about $9 million), Finley, assuming he is healthy/cleared (other tightends it would be around $6 million which would be good, but he gets 120% of his final year making it about $10.5 million).
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