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The TT Conundrum: FA, Fair Market Valuations & Cap Space
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Pugger


Joined: 01 May 2010
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Location: N. Fort Myers, FL
PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 9:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

gizmo2012 wrote:
Shields is really the only "must keep" free agent. Players I think TT will try to keep unless the market prices them too high are Jones, Quarless and Jolly.I personally don't believe Kuhn is going anywhere - he made the key block in the Bears game and is such a big part of the personality of the team.

I differ some on your list but thought you did an excellent job laying it all out there. I doubt Flynn will be singed because Tolzien is already under contract and has the bigger arm. I think TT will move on from Pickett and Raji - Pickett because his age showed this year and Raji because he isn't worth near the money he thinks he is. Look for TT to dip into free agency for big fat DL. I think Francois is gone and Wilson has a maybe 50/50 chance to return. I definitely believe Lattimore will stay and depending how the off season goes Brad Jones will be cut.


If the second half of this past season is an indication Williams is back to his old self I hope we keep him around. His veteran leadership won't hurt back there either. Pickett was playing well before he screwed up his knee so maybe he'll be back if he doesn't cost a fortune. It will be interesting to see if we keep 3 QBs next year - AR, Flynn and Tolzien.
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TheBitzMan


Joined: 21 Jan 2013
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 9:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

driftwood wrote:


the fact that he held out this long & TT wasnt able to get him re-upped prior to RFA ending makes me think Sammy is expecting big $ on the market... the packers will have to get into a bidding war to sammy imo

im starting to think he wont be a packer next year unless TT is already set on dumping TW's remaining year


I am expecting the Raiders and our old pal Reggie McKenzie to throw some money at Shields. They have $70 mil in cap space after he tore it down. They can make big runs at players like Shields and Decker. Familiarity with Shields also makes this possible.
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byzr


Joined: 31 Jan 2005
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 10:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Shields and Raji should be BIG NAME FAs. what are the chances we tag and trade one of them? hopefully Raji more so than Shields seeing as Shields is more valuable to us.
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HokieHigh


Joined: 18 Aug 2009
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 10:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for your work on this RS.

I think Quarless is worth Fred Davis money easy. Bigs with body control and hands like Q don't come around ever day and more teams are trying to make this a part of their offense. Far more astute eyes than mine have heralded him as a good blocker as well I believe.

As for Raji, I think he is going to command 8 million+ and we need to move on. Its a shame because I always liked him.

I think if a premiere center is available at the time we pick this year TT would have to give that a long hard look. EDS is a solid swing man so I don't hate that extension.

Shields is a baller and will demand big money with Drew Rosenhaus by his side. Don't forget, thats a florida guy. I love shields and would be pleasantly surprised if we can afford to resign him. As stated by a previous poster hopefully this is a relatively rich CB class of free agency, though that may just be speculation.

I would love to see Jolly resigned and I think somewhere around the range you have him signed is a good spot. Give him a 1y/1.3m contract with the carrot of a bigger deal potential next year. I don't love the Pickett deal but with Raji going our hands are pretty much tied there.

I hope we can resign Matt Flynn, but I would not blame him one bit him for taking an opportunity elsewhere.
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driftwood


Joined: 20 Aug 2008
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 11:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

HokieHigh wrote:

Don't forget, thats a florida guy.



back to miami to reunite with philbin?

the dolphins & raiders both need a starting CB & both have familiarity with sammy

the possibility of losing sammy would have been much easier to deal with if House decided not to schit the bed this season

out of all the defensive players that had bad years, i think House was probably the one that hurt the most in terms of future plans with this team

going into 2013 our CB's were loaded with talent (TW, Sammy, House, Hyde, CH)... now TW is entering a super inflated contract year, sammy is a UFA, house is MIA, CH is coming off a lost season, & hyde might be a safety by the start of 2014

12 months literally flipped that whole position group upside down
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squire12


Joined: 15 Mar 2013
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 11:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

driftwood wrote:
HokieHigh wrote:

Don't forget, thats a florida guy.



back to miami to reunite with philbin?

the dolphins & raiders both need a starting CB & both have familiarity with sammy

the possibility of losing sammy would have been much easier to deal with if House decided not to schit the bed this season

out of all the defensive players that had bad years, i think House was probably the one that hurt the most in terms of future plans with this team

going into 2013 our CB's were loaded with talent (TW, Sammy, House, Hyde, CH)... now TW is entering a super inflated contract year, sammy is a UFA, house is MIA, CH is coming off a lost season, & hyde might be a safety by the start of 2014

12 months literally flipped that whole position group upside down


Agree entirely.
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Skypilot


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 11:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I doubt Jolly and Francois will be retained in 2014. Both suffered serious injuries. I know there's sentimental attachment to Jolly, but he broke down as the year progressed and with multiple stingers and the bulging disc I don't see them taking up a roster spot with him this year.

I would re-sign EDS, but TT is pretty conservative with $$$ when it comes to centers (have to make up that ILB extravagance for mediocrity somewhere Wink.)

(W/R to PFF, while it's not perfect, their analysis is spot on much of the time. Fans get frustrated with the deeper analysis when it doesn't jibe with their pre-conceptions of a favored player like AJ Hawk, for instance.

Total tackles is not a good measure of effectiveness/impact at ILB. Paris Lenon and Morgan Burnett have had very high numbers in that category, as well. In Hawks case, many (most?) of his tackles and pile jumping assists are 5, 10, even 15 yards downfield. This is why Brad Jones scores just as well in their analysis and GB's ILB duo isn't close to to all pro's like Bowman-Willis in SF.)
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driftwood


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 12:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

how much $ can the packers save by cutting brad jones prior to the 2014 season?
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spilltray


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 12:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

driftwood wrote:
how much $ can the packers save by cutting brad jones prior to the 2014 season?


not much at all. He's due 2.5 mil salary and 1 mil of his 3 mil signing bonus. You keep him, he costs 3.5, you cut him, he costs 2.
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CWood21


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 12:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

driftwood wrote:
how much $ can the packers save by cutting brad jones prior to the 2014 season?


2 million, but the actual savings are probably closer to 1.5 million assuming a minimum salary replacement.
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ugLymayNe


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 12:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

driftwood wrote:
how much $ can the packers save by cutting brad jones prior to the 2014 season?


http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/green-bay-packers/brad-jones/


That's something that isn't going to happen, though.
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RashaanSalaami


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Skypilot wrote:
I doubt Jolly and Francois will be retained in 2014. Both suffered serious injuries. I know there's sentimental attachment to Jolly, but he broke down as the year progressed and with multiple stingers and the bulging disc I don't see them taking up a roster spot with him this year.


Yeah Jolly we don't really know the health situation. He could easily be done unfortunately.

The thing with Francois is that we don't need to give him any guaranteed money IMO to have him in as a camp body. With no guaranteed money, you get the chance to see where he's at health-wise and give him a shot to make a run at the roster. Odds are that if he were healthy, he would have seen some playing time this year. If he's not able to come back, obviously we won't re-sign him, or we can cut him in camp. I liked his potential though.
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rbens06


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 2:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For the most part I think those numbers look pretty good/reasonable to what TT will try to do. The few I think leave some room for debate are Kuhn and Shields.

I think that Kuhn's number is too high for what TT will pay. I know that is somewhat in line with Tolbert and Leach, but I think both of them had more value than Kuhn would on the open market. Kuhn is older than Tolbert and not the same runner/receiver as him and Leach was a more accomplished blocker at the time. I think because of that Kuhn is closer to the veteran minimum to $1 million range. I think that he has good value to our team and what he can/does do for us, but I do not think he brings that same value to other teams.

Also, I think Shields will want more money upfront. He has never really been "paid" during his career and probably will want to cash in on something big upfront, especially if the gets a 5 year deal that brings him into his 30s the next time he would hit free agency. Really, the first four years in the league he has made roughly $3.5 to $4 million. Plus his agent is Rosenhaus, so I think we can expect a fierce negotiation. I think the overall deal in terms of money and years might look similar to that, but for some reason I think that Shields will want that big signing bonus.

Overall, I think we are in fairly good shape moving forward. We will have some guys we will probably need to let go of, but we should have a decent amount of money to roll over into next offseason and have some guys, like Williams and Bush, that might either be restructured or cut outright to help us add to that number. We might not have the financial flexibility to be a big player in free agency, but TT rarely is anyways, so it fits with our current style.
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Kampman74


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 5:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I thought that we are closer to 25 mil? Not a big deal I guess the real question is how much money do we have next year when Cobb, Jordy, and Bulaga have contracts up and then Daniels and Hayward the following year.



Also I got Shields on 10 mil a year. I hope I am wrong. But unless he takes a home town discount. The guy has no help over the top and might have the best recovery speed in the business.


Also the real thing to consider when thinking about Shields is who is his agent, Rosenhoaus AKA he will squeeze every penny outta of our organization.
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ugLymayNe


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 5:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like Arthur Jones or Tyson Jackson as LDE's in our system. Jones would be a huge pickup because he can two-gap well and also collapse the pocket and Tyson Jackson would be an upgrade as a run stuffer.
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