Discuss football with over 60,000 fans. Free Membership. Join now!

 FAQFAQ  RegisterRegister   ProfileProfile   Log in to check your private messagesLog in to check your private messages   Log inLog in 

FootballsFuture.com Forum Index
FootballsFuture.com Home

The TT Conundrum: FA, Fair Market Valuations & Cap Space
Goto page 1, 2, 3, 4  Next
 
Post new topic   Reply to topic    FootballsFuture.com Forum Index -> Green Bay Packers
View previous topic :: View next topic  
Author Message
RashaanSalaami


Global Moderator
Most Valuable Poster
Joined: 18 Feb 2006
Posts: 29841
Location: Jersey
PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 1:02 am    Post subject: The TT Conundrum: FA, Fair Market Valuations & Cap Space Reply with quote

So the below graphic is something I put together over the last day. It kinda shows how difficult a position Ted Thompson holds and how crucial mistakes like Brad Jones turn out to be valuable dollars. However, it's also important to keep in mind, as you consider outside alternatives in free agency, that there are traps everywhere and the Brad Jones' are more common in acquisitions outside an organization.

I've estimated our cap space to be $22.945 million for the upcoming year after rookies have been accounted for.

Below is a breakdown of players under contract:

QB: 2
RB: 3
WR: 7
TE: 3
OT: 4
OG: 4
C: 1
ST: 3
DL: 4
OLB: 5
ILB: 3
CB: 7
S: 2
Total: 48

The below 10 positions I presume will need some help in the form of internal growth, free agent re-signings, new free agent signings, or draft picks/undrafted free agents:

FB: John Kuhn/Andrew Quarless
WR3: James Jones
TE: Jermichael Finley/Andrew Quarless
C: Evan Dietrich-Smith
Base DL: Raji, Pickett, Jolly
OLB3: Mike Neal
CB: Sam Shields
S: MD Jennings

So if you take a look at my below graphics, I have us parting ways with:
BJ Raji, James Jones, Jermichael Finley, James Starks, John Kuhn, and Marshall Newhouse among a couple lessers. This would leave us at $8.71 million in cap room.



So I'm not sure how you would manipulate the cap, but I think what I have are decent market estimates.

Do you disagree with any of the below numbers I've come to conclusion with? Is our cap situation a little tighter than we believe? Basically, I want to open up this thread to discuss anything I may have off base. I want to have an honest discussion of our own free agents. With the numbers I've presented (and you can feel free to bring in your own counterevidence, who do we keep and who do we lose?

My conclusion is that the people crying for Byrd/Ward or other top flight free agents are in for a crash course in reality. We may be able to pursue lesser veterans, but at the price of our own guys (which I don't necessarily have a problem with).


NOTE:

As you're going through this exercise, please note AFTER you have 3 free agents, you can begin deducting the following cap numbers starting at the top from each additional free agent signing because of the offseason's Top 51 rule. Also, realize that TT likes to carry approximately $6-7 million in space each year to allocate for midseason acquisitions and carryover.

FA4: $495,000.00
FA5: $495,000.00
FA6: $495,000.00
FA7: $495,000.00
FA8: $495,000.00
FA9: $495,000.00
FA10: $495,000.00
FA11: $495,000.00
FA12: $496,666.67
FA13: $497,333.33
FA14: $507,250.00
FA15: $509,212.00
FA16: $520,075.00
FA17: $535,075.00
FA18: $540,413.00
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail AIM Address
CWood21


Moderator
Joined: 27 Jun 2008
Posts: 34949
Location: 'Merica
PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 1:13 am    Post subject: Re: The TT Conundrum: Free Agency - See the difficulties? Reply with quote

RashaanSalaami wrote:
So I'm not sure how you would manipulate the cap, but I think what I have recorded are market value offers. Do you disagree with any of the below numbers I've come to conclusion with? Is our cap situation a little tighter than we believe? The people shouting for Byrd/Ward or other top flight free agents are in for a crash course in reality. We may be able to pursue lesser veterans, but at the price of our own guys (which I have no problem with).


No, I do agree that we're definitely tighter than people care to admit. But on the other hand, it's not like our hands are tied behind our backs either. Tramon Williams is getting paid $9,500,000 (which I believe would make him the 8th highest paid contract to a CB), and does anyone really think he's going to play like a top 10 CB? So cutting him would put $7,500,000 back on the books, but when you factor in a minimum salary to replace him the savings is probably a bit under $7 million.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address
gbpacker40


Joined: 06 Feb 2013
Posts: 1892
Location: Milwaukee
PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 1:43 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Because contracts can easily be structured to fit any given year and we have some contracts that can be renegotiated. I think a lot of people look at the salary cap and think it's just black and white. It's not, there are a lot of grey areas that can be adjusted and manipulated (bonus, yearly salary, guaranteed, etc). Like the above poster said, TW is an easy restructure candidate, if not an outright cut candidate. I am sure there are other possible candidates as well.
_________________
"The dude is scary. I don't ever want to face him again in my life."

-- Antrel Rolle, on playing against Aaron Rodgers
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
RashaanSalaami


Global Moderator
Most Valuable Poster
Joined: 18 Feb 2006
Posts: 29841
Location: Jersey
PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 1:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I have the numbers pretty transparent and prefer to talk specifics in this thread. We've had hundreds of posts talking in generalities.

If you want to steer the conversation in the direction of restructures, please propose who you would restructure and how you would do so. Restructure does not mean simply slashing salaries. It means prolonging commitments. The Cap Prospectus thread at the top of this forum is also updated and has numbers which you can use.

Tramon is clearly a top candidate for something of this nature, but would you rather try to extend him or cut him? He played not too far from a top 10 corner down the second half of the season. Can we gamble on parting ways with him and assume Hayward who played probably no more than 60% of our snaps as a rookie can compete for that position full-time? Sure there is promise, but he's a year removed from that.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message Send e-mail AIM Address
CWood21


Moderator
Joined: 27 Jun 2008
Posts: 34949
Location: 'Merica
PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 1:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

RashaanSalaami wrote:
Tramon is clearly a top candidate for something of this nature, but would you rather try to extend him or cut him? He played not too far from a top 10 corner down the second half of the season. Can we gamble on parting ways with him and assume Hayward who played probably no more than 60% of our snaps as a rookie can compete for that position full-time? Sure there is promise, but he's a year removed from that.


I think it honestly depends on what he's looking for. If we're talking about taking his contract this upcoming year plus a minimum salary and spreading it over the next two years, then I'm not sure you're going to find a cornerback at 5 million or less that is going to be as productive as Tramon. But if he's going to want a two or three year extension where the AAV comes at (or above) 5 million you have to really consider passing him off and hoping one of our younger guys show up ready to play next year. He's already 30 years old, and he'll be 31 years old by the time the season starts next year. He's probably not going to be worth his next contract if it goes more than an extra year beyond his current one.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address
Tongue-Splitter


Joined: 30 Aug 2013
Posts: 1977
PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 3:06 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I don't really think Shields is going to be as expensive as a lot of people seem to think he will be. I know PFF has its faults, but it also has some benefits as well. On there, there are 20 unrestricted free agent corners and 3 restricted free agent corners with higher grades than Shields. And it's not like he had a great numbers year or like the Packers defense had a great numbers year to boost his value.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
spilltray


Joined: 09 Jan 2006
Posts: 10316
Location: Green Bay, WI
PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 3:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tongue-Splitter wrote:
I don't really think Shields is going to be as expensive as a lot of people seem to think he will be. I know PFF has its faults, but it also has some benefits as well. On there, there are 20 unrestricted free agent corners and 3 restricted free agent corners with higher grades than Shields. And it's not like he had a great numbers year or like the Packers defense had a great numbers year to boost his value.


Their DB and OL grades are their 2 worst by far. Shields going underneath and not getting expected S help over the top would be blamed on him. He's going to be a 7-8 mil/year contract.
_________________
Wilfred wrote:
Memory is like the Packers when they are behind by two touchdowns in the 4th quarter... It comes back.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message AIM Address Yahoo Messenger MSN Messenger
Tongue-Splitter


Joined: 30 Aug 2013
Posts: 1977
PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 3:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

spilltray wrote:
Their DB and OL grades are their 2 worst by far. Shields going underneath and not getting expected S help over the top would be blamed on him. He's going to be a 7-8 mil/year contract.

I hope you're wrong.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
gbpacker40


Joined: 06 Feb 2013
Posts: 1892
Location: Milwaukee
PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 4:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tongue-Splitter wrote:
I don't really think Shields is going to be as expensive as a lot of people seem to think he will be. I know PFF has its faults, but it also has some benefits as well. On there, there are 20 unrestricted free agent corners and 3 restricted free agent corners with higher grades than Shields. And it's not like he had a great numbers year or like the Packers defense had a great numbers year to boost his value.



I agree, I am thinking 4 years 24-26 million.
_________________
"The dude is scary. I don't ever want to face him again in my life."

-- Antrel Rolle, on playing against Aaron Rodgers
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Revel8


Joined: 14 Aug 2013
Posts: 768
PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 4:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

spilltray wrote:
Tongue-Splitter wrote:
I don't really think Shields is going to be as expensive as a lot of people seem to think he will be. I know PFF has its faults, but it also has some benefits as well. On there, there are 20 unrestricted free agent corners and 3 restricted free agent corners with higher grades than Shields. And it's not like he had a great numbers year or like the Packers defense had a great numbers year to boost his value.


Their DB and OL grades are their 2 worst by far. Shields going underneath and not getting expected S help over the top would be blamed on him. He's going to be a 7-8 mil/year contract.


There definitely is potential for Shields' contract to go that high. Hopefully the Packers can get him for a steal like Rodgers' 10.8 million a year. Or Nelson's 4.4 million a year. Or Jones' 3.2 million a year, etc.
_________________
Sign hanging in Albert Einsteins office at Princeton University wrote:
"Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted counts."
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Macc_Aviv


Joined: 06 Jan 2011
Posts: 999
Location: Shaking babies and kissing hands
PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 5:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Revel8 wrote:
spilltray wrote:
Tongue-Splitter wrote:
I don't really think Shields is going to be as expensive as a lot of people seem to think he will be. I know PFF has its faults, but it also has some benefits as well. On there, there are 20 unrestricted free agent corners and 3 restricted free agent corners with higher grades than Shields. And it's not like he had a great numbers year or like the Packers defense had a great numbers year to boost his value.


Their DB and OL grades are their 2 worst by far. Shields going underneath and not getting expected S help over the top would be blamed on him. He's going to be a 7-8 mil/year contract.


There definitely is potential for Shields' contract to go that high. Hopefully the Packers can get him for a steal like Rodgers' 10.8 million a year. Or Nelson's 4.4 million a year. Or Jones' 3.2 million a year, etc.

I think if there were a chance of that happening it would have been done a year ago when Shields was going into restricted free agency.


Last edited by Macc_Aviv on Wed Jan 22, 2014 5:53 am; edited 1 time in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
gbpacker40


Joined: 06 Feb 2013
Posts: 1892
Location: Milwaukee
PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 5:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

spilltray wrote:
Tongue-Splitter wrote:
I don't really think Shields is going to be as expensive as a lot of people seem to think he will be. I know PFF has its faults, but it also has some benefits as well. On there, there are 20 unrestricted free agent corners and 3 restricted free agent corners with higher grades than Shields. And it's not like he had a great numbers year or like the Packers defense had a great numbers year to boost his value.


Their DB and OL grades are their 2 worst by far. Shields going underneath and not getting expected S help over the top would be blamed on him. He's going to be a 7-8 mil/year contract.



The DB grades are terrible because we have crap for safeties. Our corners played pretty good overall. I think Micah was the only one who was burnt on a consistent basis and a lot of that is due to him being a rookie. I think he will only get better in time. He cant play man for his life, but there isnt a more fundamental player on defense.
_________________
"The dude is scary. I don't ever want to face him again in my life."

-- Antrel Rolle, on playing against Aaron Rodgers
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Macc_Aviv


Joined: 06 Jan 2011
Posts: 999
Location: Shaking babies and kissing hands
PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 5:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

gbpacker40 wrote:
spilltray wrote:
Tongue-Splitter wrote:
I don't really think Shields is going to be as expensive as a lot of people seem to think he will be. I know PFF has its faults, but it also has some benefits as well. On there, there are 20 unrestricted free agent corners and 3 restricted free agent corners with higher grades than Shields. And it's not like he had a great numbers year or like the Packers defense had a great numbers year to boost his value.


Their DB and OL grades are their 2 worst by far. Shields going underneath and not getting expected S help over the top would be blamed on him. He's going to be a 7-8 mil/year contract.



The DB grades are terrible because we have crap for safeties. Our corners played pretty good overall. I think Micah was the only one who was burnt on a consistent basis and a lot of that is due to him being a rookie. I think he will only get better in time. He cant play man for his life, but there isnt a more fundamental player on defense.

House had good and bad moments. Tramon was great the last half of the season.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
gizmo2012


Joined: 11 Mar 2007
Posts: 2711
PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 9:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Shields is really the only "must keep" free agent. Players I think TT will try to keep unless the market prices them too high are Jones, Quarless and Jolly.I personally don't believe Kuhn is going anywhere - he made the key block in the Bears game and is such a big part of the personality of the team.

I differ some on your list but thought you did an excellent job laying it all out there. I doubt Flynn will be singed because Tolzien is already under contract and has the bigger arm. I think TT will move on from Pickett and Raji - Pickett because his age showed this year and Raji because he isn't worth near the money he thinks he is. Look for TT to dip into free agency for big fat DL. I think Francois is gone and Wilson has a maybe 50/50 chance to return. I definitely believe Lattimore will stay and depending how the off season goes Brad Jones will be cut.
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
driftwood


Joined: 20 Aug 2008
Posts: 6079
Location: Milwaukee
PostPosted: Wed Jan 22, 2014 10:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Revel8 wrote:
spilltray wrote:
Tongue-Splitter wrote:
I don't really think Shields is going to be as expensive as a lot of people seem to think he will be. I know PFF has its faults, but it also has some benefits as well. On there, there are 20 unrestricted free agent corners and 3 restricted free agent corners with higher grades than Shields. And it's not like he had a great numbers year or like the Packers defense had a great numbers year to boost his value.


Their DB and OL grades are their 2 worst by far. Shields going underneath and not getting expected S help over the top would be blamed on him. He's going to be a 7-8 mil/year contract.


There definitely is potential for Shields' contract to go that high. Hopefully the Packers can get him for a steal like Rodgers' 10.8 million a year. Or Nelson's 4.4 million a year. Or Jones' 3.2 million a year, etc.


the fact that he held out this long & TT wasnt able to get him re-upped prior to RFA ending makes me think Sammy is expecting big $ on the market... the packers will have to get into a bidding war with sammy imo

im starting to think he wont be a packer next year unless TT is already set on dumping TW's remaining year


Last edited by driftwood on Wed Jan 22, 2014 12:01 pm; edited 1 time in total
Back to top
View user's profile Send private message
Display posts from previous:   

Post new topic   Reply to topic    FootballsFuture.com Forum Index -> Green Bay Packers All times are GMT - 4 Hours
Goto page 1, 2, 3, 4  Next
Page 1 of 4

 
Jump to:  
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum




Powered by phpBB © 2001, 2005 phpBB Group