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2014 AFC Championship game: Patriots @ Broncos
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Plat


Joined: 06 Jul 2006
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 12:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pats 34
Broncos 24
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bosox1001


Joined: 23 Jul 2013
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 12:51 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

green24 wrote:
True, although 2 of those recent wins came against Tim Tebow. Wink


Well 2 did come against Manning Wink


Last edited by bosox1001 on Mon Jan 13, 2014 12:56 am; edited 1 time in total
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FirstDownFaulk


Joined: 25 Jul 2010
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 12:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Let me start off by saying that it's pretty clear who I WANT to win this game, but for some reason I just can't convince myself that the Patriots have the manpower to do so.

Objectively, I believe Denver is going to win this game. New England just doesn't have enough bodies on the defensive side of the ball (Only 13 players saw defensive snaps for New England on Saturday) to effectively stop/slow down a fast paced passing attack. The only shot the Patriots have is if they're able to play EXACTLY like they did last season when they beat Denver early on in the season. They ran the ball very effectively (250+ yards) and forced multiple turnovers (3). They need to limit Mannings time on the field and control the clock, because they can't afford to have a tired defense late in the game.
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jrry32 wrote:
Tom Brady hasn't left NE and proven himself not to be a system QB...so he is one.

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FirstDownFaulk


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 12:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

green24 wrote:
FirstDownFaulk wrote:
That Broncos team that Brady has a losing record against (5-6) is long gone so it's not really relevant. He hasn't lost to them in 4 years and is 4-0 since then.

True, although 2 of those recent wins came against Tim Tebow. Wink

Ok...that's just about as relevant as stating his record against a team from 10-11 years ago as if it means anything going into next week Wink
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jrry32 wrote:
Tom Brady hasn't left NE and proven himself not to be a system QB...so he is one.

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ThePrimeTime12


Joined: 11 Nov 2013
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PostPosted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 12:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bosox1001 wrote:
It's not as if NE hasn't continued their success with Denver. They blew them out twice with Tebow when they went on their "run" and into the playoffs, and they've beaten them this time as well. Granted, there was more scoring, but BB and Brady do seem to know how to beat that system.

Tebow's teams should not be really relevant to that conversation at all considering how this current Broncos team is the complete 180 of them.

New England is 4-0 against Denver in the last 4 matchups. 3 of those 4 games were at Foxborough and the one time it was at Denver, Tebow was the QB.

I wouldn't rely on trends without context. Brady is going to pick Denver apart if Harris doesn't play in the game or if he plays limited or if DRC is out again. Brady couldn't do anything in the last game was DRC was out there. He did all of his damage when DRC left the game.
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Plat


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 12:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Looks like Chris Harris Jr. is most likely out for the game...that Denver D is in BIG trouble.
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ThePrimeTime12


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 1:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Plat wrote:
Looks like Chris Harris Jr. is most likely out for the game...that Denver D is in BIG trouble.

I would wait until he gets his MRI tomorrow before ruling that but he would be a significant loss. He's not just a great cover CB but he's great at playing the run too. Broncos would either move Bailey back to the outside or have Webster there. The only good news is that at least one of those CBs would get practice time/reps as a starter. Jammer was probably rusty and didn't expect to play although I still wouldn't play him since you should always be ready and he put up an abysmal performance.
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bosox1001


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 1:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

They're not all that drastically different on offense, with Moreno, Decker and Thomas being on both teams with an addition of Welker who, needless to say, BB is very familiar of how he plays and they added Manning who, again, BB is very familair against. And their defense was better a couple years ago. Add that with the fact there's Del Rio there AND the Patriots have still beaten Denver twice with this current team, and I don't think you can simply dismiss all of that as a silly trend. It's a real roadblock that Denver will have to figure out h ow to get around. Sure, being in Denver will make it easier, but not totally outweigh those facts.
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ThePrimeTime12


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 1:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bosox1001 wrote:
They're not all that drastically different on offense, with Moreno, Decker and Thomas being on both teams with an addition of Welker who, needless to say, BB is very familiar of how he plays and they added Manning who, again, BB is very familair against.

So, there is no difference between having Tebow and Peyton as your QB because BB is familiar with him? You forgot to mention the 2011 Broncos were the #1 rushing team in the NFL because they had Willis McGahee at RB who was All-Pro caliber. The 2011 Broncos and the 2013 Broncos are almost complete opposites. 2011 Broncos ran the ball no matter the circumstance and they would generally succeed. They couldn't pass to save their lives because Tebow can't. That sounds like the 2013 Broncos to you?
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bosox1001


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 1:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Obviously they have a better team right now, but it'd be different if Brees went to Denver, because NE doesn't have all that first hand familiarity with him. Don't we say the same about division rivals? Brady and Manning have come the closest to division rivals that we can see, playing every year and now for the 4th time twice a year. So yes, the fact BB is very familiar with Manning and how to stop him, and the fact that Welker was also a long time Patriot, that familiarity only helps. Off the top of my head, I'd HAVE to think Manning has his worst record against NE of teams he faces on a consistent basis. Belichick has also traditionally been able to handle Denver and Del Rio's system. And NE did actually beat Denver a couple months ago, and also did last year.

I personally think all of those factors have something to do with it. It's not just pure luck or aberrations, it seems to be a genuine pattern.
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ThePrimeTime12


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 1:21 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bosox1001 wrote:
Obviously they have a better team right now, but it'd be different if Brees went to Denver, because NE doesn't have all that first hand familiarity with him. Don't we say the same about division rivals? Brady and Manning have come the closest to division rivals that we can see, playing every year and now for the 4th time twice a year. So yes, the fact BB is very familiar with Manning and how to stop him, and the fact that Welker was also a long time Patriot, that familiarity only helps. Off the top of my head, I'd HAVE to think Manning has his worst record against NE of teams he faces on a consistent basis. Belichick has also traditionally been able to handle Denver and Del Rio's system. And NE did actually beat Denver a couple months ago, and also did last year.

I personally think all of those factors have something to do with it. It's not just pure luck or aberrations, it seems to be a genuine pattern.

BB being familiar with Peyton and Welker doesn't mean they are the same as having Tebow out there.

If you think Denver's offense in 2011 is relevant to this upcoming matchup then you are just like the people that thought the Chargers were going to win today because of that stupid Eagles trend.
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Orangecrushin


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 1:27 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

My prediction

Broncos 33
Patriots. 31


I don't think the pats rushing attack will poise a big problem but Brady ammondola and Edelman will will be a big problem for denver if they cAnt get Harris back for the game.




The Brady era pats denver record is mainly credited to shanahan out coaching belichick. Bb could shut down the best offenses in the nfl but every pats broncos game in the 2000's was usually a chess match all the way through with a mediocre broncos team winning.
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bosox1001


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 1:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am not saying Manning and Tebow are the same. I'm saying the effect on New England is not as large as it is for other teams. But some of the WRs are the same, one of the RBs is the same (and had a similar season to McGahee a few years back), and the new addition is Welker who also doesn't have the same effect against NE. It's a unique situation, and the only trend that we've seen is NE beats Denver, with Tebow, with McGahee, with Manning, with Welker. Their defensive co is the same one that got knocked around a couple times in the playoffs against NE, and... I don't know how else to say this or how many more times... but the Patriots have figured out or understand everything Denver has done and has added.

If not for a couple Riddley fumbles in October, the score may have been a little bit more lopsided in NE's favor as well.

Basically, Denver is a team built around players and schemes that New England has figured out how to beat. Which is why I'm really giving NE a chance in this game because in all honesty, Denver should be miles ahead of them. But they're not, and it's not just coming out of nowhere by a team that randomly pulls an upset, it seems to be consistent, and is already consistent with Manning in Denver going 0-2 in this era of his career.
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ThePrimeTime12


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 1:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

bosox1001 wrote:
I am not saying Manning and Tebow are the same. I'm saying the effect on New England is not as large as it is for other teams. But some of the WRs are the same, one of the RBs is the same (and had a similar season to McGahee a few years back), and the new addition is Welker who also doesn't have the same effect against NE.

You do realize that the WRs being the same but the QB being a complete opposite isn't the same, right? It's not like you don't understand that Tebow can't throw the ball by any means while Peyton is one of, if not the best ever at it.

Quote:
Their defensive co is the same one that got knocked around a couple times in the playoffs against NE, and... I don't know how else to say this or how many more times... but the Patriots have figured out or understand everything Denver has done and has added.

New England has beat Denver once in the playoffs since the 2000s. Once again, Tebow was playing, unable to do anything on offense and constantly giving the Patriots offense chances. Plus, Denver doesn't have Dumervil anymore, who was a huge liability in run defense and that was a large part as to why New England won last season. It's also why Denver's run defense has improved dramatically.

Quote:
If not for a couple Riddley fumbles in October, the score may have been a little bit more lopsided in NE's favor as well.

If DRC didn't injure himself before halftime, Denver would have won. If Denver didn't fumble/turn the ball over, they would have won too. I can play hypotheticals too.

Quote:
But they're not, and it's not just coming out of nowhere by a team that randomly pulls an upset, it seems to be consistent, and is already consistent with Manning in Denver going 0-2 in this era of his career.
Both of those losses were in New England which is something most people don't realize. Home/road splits are more important than weather.
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bosox1001


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 13, 2014 1:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Orangecrushin wrote:
I don't think the pats rushing attack will poise a big problem but Brady ammondola and Edelman will will be a big problem for denver if they cAnt get Harris back for the game.


See, I think mostly the opposite. NE has no one that stands out in the backfield, but keep these two things in mind: Blount was barely used at all until Week 12. Up to that point, he only had 82 carries for 374 yards and 2 TDs. The final 5 weeks of the season he had 71 carries for 398 yards and 5 TDs, averaging a full yard more per carry, and we all saw what he did on Saturday. He's being used more now in bigger spots and he's stepped up. Then you have Vereen who can be explosive but is sort of hit or miss, and Riddley who is a very capable RB who can burn any team if he's having a good night.

So I think the success of the Patriots will depend entirely on if they can move the ball on the ground. Chew up clock, give their defense a much needed break and open up the field for the pretty mediocre WRs they have. Because really, as good as Edelman has looked at times this year, he';s still been burried in the depth chart for his whole career when we actually had great offensive players, and he only barely broke 1k YDs and doesn't really score much. So I don't think we can entirely depend on him and Amendola here, we're going to need a strong run game.
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