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Eugene Monroe - Estimated contract
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dcfields


Joined: 28 Dec 2007
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Location: Coral Springs, FL
PostPosted: Sun Jan 05, 2014 4:01 am    Post subject: Eugene Monroe - Estimated contract Reply with quote

In researching contracts for left tackles, the best figures I could come up with for a new contract for Eugene Monroe were based off of Andrew Whitworth's 2011 deal and Jake Long's 2013 deal. Monroe grades out closer to Whitworth (IMO). Long's deal was predicated off of what he used to be (4x pro bowler).

My projection for fair market value for Eugene Monroe is 5 years/$37.1m to $39.3m ($7.42m per year to 7.86m per year) with a signing bonus of about $7m to $8m and guaranteed money around $11m. These values would make Monroe the 6th highest paid tackle in the game for 2014.
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dcfields


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 05, 2014 4:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I noticed something else in doing my research. Right tackles get paid substantially less than left tackles. Only 6 right tackles are slated to make $2m or more in 2014 (two over $2m, three over $3m & one over $6m (Tennessee's David Stewart)). That said, it's possible that the Ravens could find a serviceable replacement for Oher (who made $3.785m in 2013) via free agency instead of using a draft pick to replace him. I doubt Oher would return to Baltimore for less than he was making. If he were willing to take $2m/yr. or less, it might be worth re-signing him. He couldn't possibly do worse than he did in 2013, right?
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coordinator0


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 05, 2014 10:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

That's in the overall total area I'd expect Monroe to sign for. It would surprise me to see him get that little guaranteed though.
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dcfields


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 05, 2014 1:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I thought the same thing when I was looking at other contracts. It's quite possible that Monroe could make a few million more guaranteed but I don't think it will be A LOT more.

For what it's worth, I did the same thing for Ray Rice and Flacco. I was pretty close on Ray Rice (within $500k/yr.). I was definitely off on Flacco. I thought Flacco should have signed for about $17.5m - $18m/yr. In both cases, I was short on my signing bonus estimate.

BTW, the following is a good resource for contract information for those who don't know about the site. http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/
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coordinator0


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 05, 2014 2:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The reason I brought that up is the Ravens have tended to like giving out more guaranteed money in favor of a somewhat lower overall total deal. It certainly wouldn't be a whole lot more but I'd guess something around $15 million guaranteed.

I don't trust spotrac. Some of the things I've seen on there, and heard from others looking at different things, have been wrong more often than I feel comfortable with for using a source. NFL contracts are hard to find any information on but if I'm looking for salary info for a player that doesn't play for Baltimore I usually go to rotoworld. For Ravens' players I use RSR/Brian McFarland.
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diamondbull424


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 05, 2014 3:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

coordinator0 wrote:
The reason I brought that up is the Ravens have tended to like giving out more guaranteed money in favor of a somewhat lower overall total deal. It certainly wouldn't be a whole lot more but I'd guess something around $15 million guaranteed.

I don't trust spotrac. Some of the things I've seen on there, and heard from others looking at different things, have been wrong more often than I feel comfortable with for using a source. NFL contracts are hard to find any information on but if I'm looking for salary info for a player that doesn't play for Baltimore I usually go to rotoworld. For Ravens' players I use RSR/Brian McFarland.

Yup. Same.

I only use Spotrac as a second reference.

In terms of Monroe's contract... maybe.

It's all supply and demand. Their is a great amount of demand for LTs this season. Teams like Baltimore, Miami, NYGiants, etc. will be looking to sign a LT and could have more to spend. Both are viewed as potential playoff caliber teams. Miami proved last offseason that they're willing to spend big money on players. Monroe is FROM New Jersey and the Giants have about 2-3m more cap room with more players signed in comparison to the Ravens. Monroe just came from Florida (though that's not saying much with how big the state is) and Miami has about $10m more to spend than the Ravens.. and their OL is just as bad, if not worse, than ours. They're the one team that could be more motivated to improve their OL by throwing money at it... and they already have a center so I'd expect LT to be their most important position to upgrade.

Monroe is the top LT on the market, I could easily see his contract boom up a solid million based on your expectations. I think $7-7.5m is about the most we should look to spend on Monroe before smartly bowing. I'd bet his agent would be looking for upwards of $9m though.

Those other OTs you researched, I did as well... but it's important to note the difference between circumstance. Whitworth was resigned by the Bengals before other teams had a chance to drive up the price... he was also still slightly underrated at that point. And Long was signed as an injury prone player that you were 'hoping' got back to where he was. He certainly couldn't ask for as much money as he could've if he weren't hurt and injury prone. Monroe will have to 'accept' less to return to Baltimore on fair market price... and if he were I'd suspect that he's doing it for a very high amount of guaranteed dollars.

Something in the percentage realm of what Ferguson and Thomas went for... which was about 47-49% of their contracts. I'll say 45%...

Considering the market value
Considering the extra demand... I'd project a deal of:
5 yrs, $40m, 18m gtd...
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dcfields


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 05, 2014 6:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wow! Thanks for the head's up on Rotoworld (contracts), guys. I had no idea. I have used them for gathering fantasy football information for years but I had no idea they had contract info. Thank you!

I agree the demand for Monroe's services will be high. And it could easily drive up his (agent's) demands. I'm hoping that the Ravens prioritize signing him. He's too talented to let go.

Ozzie always said that he would never trade for a player in the last year of his contract. I don't think he would have brought Monroe in just to let him walk. I really hope the Ravens get Monroe signed long term relatively soon.
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diamondbull424


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 05, 2014 7:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

dcfields wrote:
Wow! Thanks for the head's up on Rotoworld (contracts), guys. I had no idea. I have used them for gathering fantasy football information for years but I had no idea they had contract info. Thank you!

I agree the demand for Monroe's services will be high. And it could easily drive up his (agent's) demands. I'm hoping that the Ravens prioritize signing him. He's too talented to let go.

Ozzie always said that he would never trade for a player in the last year of his contract. I don't think he would have brought Monroe in just to let him walk. I really hope the Ravens get Monroe signed long term relatively soon.

Yeah, I think our best bet is signing Monroe prior to FA... because if he gets there, other teams will be willing to throw money at him that I don't think we would be able to "smartly" match. But even signing him prior to that, I don't think we could hope for anything less than about $38m with 17.5m gtd... though maybe Ozzie pulls another Yanda deal out of his sleeve.

I didn't think Yanda would sign for anything less than $7m based on research of what the top OTs were making and Ozzie got him back for $6.4m per. So if we could bring Monroe back for say... $7.2m... well, consider me a fan. I just don't want us to be overpaying him. I like his pass blocking ability, but I just don't think he's a complete tackle. His run blocking is only average. He doesn't do enough for me to believe he should be in a similar contract range as say Duane Brown... who CAN run block at a high level.
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dcfields


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 05, 2014 8:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I agree with you, DB. D'Brickashaw's deal averages over $9m/yr. Uh... no! I'd love to see the Ravens keep Monroe. Hometown discount indeed. I'm hoping that coming from Jacksonville, he had an opportunity to see what a 1st class operation is all about. Monroe takes care of himself, eats well, works hard and he's only going to be 27 by the start of training camp. A 5 or 6 year deal ensures that we get him in his prime. He's one of the 10 best tackles in the league. We may never see another Ogden. We got spoiled with JO. I think keeping Monroe would be huge. Otherwise, we may end up overspending for someone that's not as good in desperation or being forced to draft for need which typically depletes your talent pool. I don't think the Ravens are that far away from being a contender again. Keeping Monroe is a key piece of that puzzle, IMO. The Ravens then have the opportunity to draft BPA in the 1st. I think the Ravens let Oher go and draft his replacement early. I cringe at the thought of having to replace BOTH tackles.
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diamondbull424


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 05, 2014 8:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

dcfields wrote:
I agree with you, DB. D'Brickashaw's deal averages over $9m/yr. Uh... no! I'd love to see the Ravens keep Monroe. Hometown discount indeed. I'm hoping that coming from Jacksonville, he had an opportunity to see what a 1st class operation is all about. Monroe takes care of himself, eats well, works hard and he's only going to be 27 by the start of training camp. A 5 or 6 year deal ensures that we get him in his prime. He's one of the 10 best tackles in the league. We may never see another Ogden. We got spoiled with JO. I think keeping Monroe would be huge. Otherwise, we may end up overspending for someone that's not as good in desperation or being forced to draft for need which typically depletes your talent pool. I don't think the Ravens are that far away from being a contender again. Keeping Monroe is a key piece of that puzzle, IMO. The Ravens then have the opportunity to draft BPA in the 1st. I think the Ravens let Oher go and draft his replacement early. I cringe at the thought of having to replace BOTH tackles.

While drafting for need wouldn't be "ideal", I don't think it would be too big a concern because an OT is very likely to be BPA in the 1st tbqh. There aren't many scenarios where I can fathom a better player. Maybe Dennard would be better or perhaps if Tuitt displays the elite athletic package, him... or if someone unexpected falls, but as of right now... I can't see an OT not being a BPA type.

That said, if we CAN'T resign Monroe. I don't think we would roll into the draft having to fill both OT spots perse. I think more likely we would make a value RT signing, perhaps from someone that was cut (thus to retain our ability to keep our potential TWO 3rd round comps in 2015- depending on what Oher goes for) and move into the draft with a quality RT option to at least compete for the RT job, yet still allow us to double dip at OT if we need to.
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drd23


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PostPosted: Sun Jan 05, 2014 8:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

www.overthecap.com is pretty good for salaries too (probably better than spotrac imo).
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dcfields


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2014 1:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

DB - You're right. It is quite possible that an OT could also be BPA in the first. I haven't seen you mention Taylor Lewan? Do you not think he will be there at 16/17? As of right now, I think Matthews goes #2 to St. Louis. After that, Oakland, Atlanta, Buffalo, Pittsburgh and maybe one or two other teams (especially if Dallas gets #16 in the coin flip) may select an offensive lineman. Oakland needs a QB, IMO. I don't see Clowney, Bridgewater, Barr, Bortles, Mack or Dennard making it to #16/#17. And (weeping uncontrollably) I don't think Sammy Watkins will be there either. So that's 8 guys off the board (and, NO, I not putting much thought into this post). Maybe Manziel declares and somebody falls in love with him. (And so on, and so on).

Who would be there for the Ravens at OT? Lewan? Kouandjio? Cameron Erving? Greg Robinson (if he declares)? It's quite possible that someone slips. But if we are put in a position where we are drafting the 3rd, 4th or 5th best player at their position, then I'd rather the Ravens draft someone at another position. You look at a guy like Mosley for example. He's projected to somewhere between 10th and 15th overall right now. He's also the #1 prospect at his position. What do you do?

Personally, I say sell the farm and pull a "Julio Jones" maneuver to get Sammy Watkins. I love that kid. I'm a Florida boy, DB. I've been watching that kid since he shunned my beloved Seminoles to go to Clemson. I don't want my teams to miss out on him twice.

On another note, what picks do you think we will receive as compensation for our free agent losses? Ellerbe (a 3rd or a 4th)? Kruger (4th)? Williams (4th)? Ed Reed (a 5th or a 6th)? What do you think?
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coordinator0


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2014 1:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

dcfields wrote:
Who would be there for the Ravens at OT? Lewan? Kouandjio? Cameron Erving? Greg Robinson (if he declares)? It's quite possible that someone slips. But if we are put in a position where we are drafting the 3rd, 4th or 5th best player at their position, then I'd rather the Ravens draft someone at another position. You look at a guy like Mosley for example. He's projected to somewhere between 10th and 15th overall right now. He's also the #1 prospect at his position. What do you do?


I think that's bad logic. Even though a guy might not be the top rated player at his position in the draft he still might be the top rated player left on the board when the Ravens (or any other team) are picking. You take the best player that fits your needs even if "better" guys at his position have already gone ahead of him.

As for a "sell the farm" type of move to move up and get Watkins... no. Baltimore has too many needs to do something like that and it's so far out of their usual way of doing things I wouldn't get your hopes up about that at all. Maybe they move up a couple of spots but I wouldn't bet on it since they already traded their mid round picks away for Monroe so they would either have to give up a third or dip into their future picks.

How the compensation picks end up will be interesting. The maximum any team can get is four. Reed getting cut by Houston either negated his compensation value or lowered it significantly and I'd only count him as a 7th at the most, but likely none at all. Kruger and Ellerbe both getting bigger deals and starting almost every game (Ellerbe missed one) should give Baltimore two 4th round picks. Cary Williams also started every game but he didn't get a very big contract, which is a big part of the compensation formula, so I'd expect a 5th at most for him. To sum all that up I'm expecting two 4th round picks and a 5th (or 6th, hard to say with Williams) round pick from the compensatory formula.
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dcfields


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2014 8:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I beg to differ, CoorO. In fact, I can't even take credit for it. That's Ozzie. Look at it historically as well. 2008 is a perfect example for tackles. In order as they were selected: 1) Jake Long - Miami. 12) Ryan Clady - Denver. 14) Chris Williams - Chicago. 15) Brendan Albert (listed as Guard) - Kansas City. 17) Gosder Cherilus - Detroit. 19) Jeff Otah - Carolina. 21) Sam Baker - Atlanta. Here's where the wrench gets thrown in. 26) Duane Brown - Houston. And I remember Houston getting criticism for this pick as Kiper and others thought he shouldn't have gone until the 3rd round. But if you look at the selections from Jake Long to Sam Baker (with the exception of Albert), there is a depletion in talent. 2010 and 2011 are similar (2009 wasn't a good draft for anything). It's the same at just about every position in every draft. The top 2 guys were typically successful where the 3rd to 5th guy was a shotgun splatter. Sometimes you hit, sometimes you don't. But I'd rather take my chances on a guy who's one of the top 2 players at his position than to reach for the someone simply because you feel you must. It's easier to palate a reach when you do it from the second round on. In a nutshell, I'd rather have C.J. Mosley or Eric Ebron than Zack Martin.

I know we're not getting Watkins. And I wouldn't trade the farm for anyone. It's just a dream. I'm far more in favor of the Ravens trading down than to ever trading up. More picks, more chances of drafting a player that pans out.
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Mancunian Raven


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PostPosted: Mon Jan 06, 2014 8:50 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think that taking BPA is a sound strategy a lot of the time, especially for a franchise like the Ravens, which has generally been strong in all areas.

But when you have a glaring weakness at a certain position, and that position is so crucial to everything you do as an offense, then I think you have to look more closely at your decision. So there's a Tackle who you consider to be the 3rd BPA on your board, but there's a WR who is BPA? Who would you pick, if you were Ozzie Newsome? I'm pretty sure I'd say, 'so the WR grades better overall, but the OT would be an immediate starter too, and we really need that guy'.

What does it really matter if there were two better Tackles who have already been selected, when there is a guy left who can be your franchise Tackle for the next decade? It's a completely arbitrary judgement to say, 'he's only the third best in his position in this draft, so he's not as good a pick as the best in a different position'.

I'm pretty sure Matthews goes in the top 3, and I think there's a chance that another team between 4 and 15 selects a Tackle, but I wouldn't say it's a sure thing. Too many of those teams need QBs, and others will want to get one of the stud defensive players in the draft (for what it's worth, I think Cleveland use their second pick in the round to select Manziell).

It's irresponsible to play so fast and loose with the talent on the offensive line, if you ask me. Especially when their job is to protect the guy you just agreed to pay $120million.

As for Sammy Watkins? Yeah, it'd be great to have him, but ultimately worthless if Joe was getting sacked every third snap because the O-line sucked so much. Why bother with a stud receiver if you can't get the ball to him? Same goes for a TE like Ebron or Amaro. The first order of business has to be to fashion a line that can protect Joe and that can support the run game.

I'd rather have a well protected QB who has a lack of options than a QB with plenty of options who just gets squashed all the time.
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