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Matts4313


Joined: 08 Dec 2004
Posts: 38049
Location: Cowboys Forum ROH Class of 12
PostPosted: Mon Dec 30, 2013 3:35 pm    Post subject: Draft and Cap thread Reply with quote

Since our season is over, I figured it would be good to clear the air on the cap/draft. We can start the talks on how we can move forward with this team. First, here is an article on our DRAFT PICKS. Right now, we have:

RD1 - 16th/17th (I am just going to assume 17 for the purposes of writing this)
RD2 - 48
RD3 - 81
RD4 - 144
RD5 - 176
RD6 - None
RD7 - A Bunch. Ours, plus Cheifs and Chargers. Plus up to 4 Comp Pick


-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Salary Cap:

OVER THE CAP
Sportac

Current 2014 Cowboys Salaries: $137M
Dead Money: $11M
Total Cap: $148M
Projected Cowboys cap with carryover: $126M
--------------------------------
Currently $22M over the cap


2014 top salaries and what I anticipate will happen:

Romo - $13.5M - Restructure Bonus => Adds roughly $10M to cap
Ware - $12.25M - Paycut => Adds roughly $7M to cap
Brandon Carr - $7.5M - Nothing/Maybe Restructure
Austin - $5.5M - Pay cut or Released => Adds roughly $4M to cap
Witten - $5M - Nothing/Possible Restructure
Scandrick - $4.5M - Nothing
Free - $3.5M - Nothing
Orton - $3.25M - Released => Adds roughly $1M to cap
Macky B - $2.75M - Nothing


Other notable cuts that I anticipate, along with savings:

Costa - $1.5M
Durant - $1.25M
Parnell - $1.5M


Doing the above moves would free up roughly ~$26M in cap space, putting us under the cap by $4M.


We would still have so maneuvering room with both Witten and Carr, although I don't anticipate us being very active in FA, we could make a few choice signings.
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buckwild


Joined: 25 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 30, 2013 3:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I thought that you couldn't restructure contracts in the 1st year of the deals which would apply to Romo, Lee, but you could restructure Witten or Carr instead of Romo.
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TheStarStillShines


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 30, 2013 3:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good stuff Matts. Question, though, the team would need to free up more cap space than you have listed in order to sign the draft picks, no?
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Matts4313


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 30, 2013 4:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also - Since some have made such a big deal on the restructures and "mortgaging our future" - I have taken a look at 2015 and 2016 as well:

Assuming modest cap increases over the next couple years, lets project that 2015 will be in the $128M range and 2016 will be in the ~$130M range.

In 2015 we currently have 25 players under contract at $106M (or ~20M under the cap) and obviously no dead money. Of those 25 players, Tyron Smith an Dez Bryant are the notable no shows.

But there are also a few issues with the numbers at first glance, for example:

Miles Austin and his 7M salary will not be here at that cost
Macky B will not be here at 3.25M
And I highly, Highly doubt that Ware will be here at a cost of $13.25M

So - lets assume that those contracts are not here, we are really closer to ~$40M under the cap with 23 players signed. We should factor in 2 rookie classes at roughly $6M/year. That is an additional $12M in cap used. Under Garrett, we have average 11 new players a year via draft and URFA. So, that ~$12M would be paying for 22 bodies. We are now up to 45 players under contract and roughly $28M in cap space.

The highest paid OT and WRs in the league average about $10m/year. Assumming they both get those contracts, we are now at 47 players under contract with $8M in free space. As a reminder, only to top 51 contracts count... So in other words, we are fine for 2015.

---------------------------------------------

So lets look at 2016:

We are currently projected at $85M spread over 16 players. Again, assuming Miles, ($11.4M), Ware ($13M) are not on the books, it is more like $61M on 14 players. Now stay with me here:

$61M Of cap charges, with an anticipated cap space of $130m. We have roughly $70M of cap space.

Now add in 3 years of drafting, at the Garrett average of 11 players a year = 33 people, and $18M of cap Space

Now add Bryant and Smith at $10m/yr each, and we are adding 35 players and $38M of cap space.

So in 2016: We have 49 players under contract for a total cost of $99M. We will have Roughly $30M of unused cap space available.... So we are fine in 2016 as well.
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Matts4313


Joined: 08 Dec 2004
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 30, 2013 4:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TheStarStillShines wrote:
Good stuff Matts. Question, though, the team would need to free up more cap space than you have listed in order to sign the draft picks, no?


Correct, rookie pool is roughly ~5-6M. We are certainly tight against the cap, but some maneuvering will get us to where we need to be.

buckwild wrote:
I thought that you couldn't restructure contracts in the 1st year of the deals which would apply to Romo, Lee, but you could restructure Witten or Carr instead of Romo.


Romo's contract is made so that it can be restructured. Its why he has high salaries the first couple years.
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If we're able to go 11-5 or better, then Garrett and his staff deserve to be coaches of the damned decade.
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buckwild


Joined: 25 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 30, 2013 4:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Matts4313 wrote:
Also - Since some have made such a big deal on the restructures and "mortgaging our future" - I have taken a look at 2015 and 2016 as well:

Assuming modest cap increases over the next couple years, lets project that 2015 will be in the $128M range and 2016 will be in the ~$130M range.

In 2015 we currently have 25 players under contract at $106M (or ~20M under the cap) and obviously no dead money. Of those 25 players, Tyron Smith an Dez Bryant are the notable no shows.

But there are also a few issues with the numbers at first glance, for example:

Miles Austin and his 7M salary will not be here at that cost
Macky B will not be here at 3.25M
And I highly, Highly doubt that Ware will be here at a cost of $13.25M

So - lets assume that those contracts are not here, we are really closer to ~$40M under the cap with 23 players signed. We should factor in 2 rookie classes at roughly $6M/year. That is an additional $12M in cap used. Under Garrett, we have average 11 new players a year via draft and URFA. So, that ~$12M would be paying for 22 bodies. We are now up to 45 players under contract and roughly $28M in cap space.

The highest paid OT and WRs in the league average about $10m/year. Assumming they both get those contracts, we are now at 47 players under contract with $8M in free space. As a reminder, only to top 51 contracts count... So in other words, we are fine for 2015.

---------------------------------------------

So lets look at 2016:

We are currently projected at $85M spread over 16 players. Again, assuming Miles, ($11.4M), Ware ($13M) are not on the books, it is more like $61M on 14 players. Now stay with me here:

$61M Of cap charges, with an anticipated cap space of $130m. We have roughly $70M of cap space.

Now add in 3 years of drafting, at the Garrett average of 11 players a year = 33 people, and $18M of cap Space

Now add Bryant and Smith at $10m/yr each, and we are adding 35 players and $38M of cap space.

So in 2016: We have 49 players under contract for a total cost of $99M. We will have Roughly $30M of unused cap space available.... So we are fine in 2016 as well.


Doesn't someone on the forum do these type of calculations every off season, but Cowboys always seem to be up against the cap every year.

Thought I read somewhere that you can's restructure in the 1st year of a players contract as they were talking about it on the post game show last night and again this morning regarding how will the Cowboys get under the cap.
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DreamEater53


Joined: 25 Feb 2013
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 30, 2013 4:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

All of that sounds great, and well done on the work you put in. My only problem is I can't help but feel like there will be more terrible decisions in terms of contract extensions and bonuses and whatnot. :/ I hope it works out the way you have expressed, because that does sound like a not so bad future.
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Matts4313


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 30, 2013 4:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

buckwild wrote:
Doesn't someone on the forum do these type of calculations every off season, but Cowboys always seem to be up against the cap every year.


I dont think perception and reality have lined up when it comes to the cap. Having been here long enough, there are always people who think we are in cap hell. But the reality is we have been able to do what we want, with limitations.

We found money to franchise our best Def player from last year, when people were saying we were going to be $30-40M over the cap.

Year before that we found money to give Carr a $50M contract.
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If we're able to go 11-5 or better, then Garrett and his staff deserve to be coaches of the damned decade.
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Matts4313


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 30, 2013 5:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/mock-draft

One person projects a Clinton-Dix (FS) other projects Ealy (DE)

http://www.draftcountdown.com/sub/Mock-Draft-B.php

Projects Timmy Jernigan (DT) from FSU

http://fansided.com/2013/12/30/2014-nfl-mock-draft-latest-first-round-projections-playoff/18/

Same

http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nfl-shutdown-corner/2014-nfl-draft-report-full-mock-draft-no-191857938--nfl.html

Another for Clinton-Dix

http://walterfootball.com/draft2014_1.php

Vic Beasly
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TD-ES-JJ


Joined: 25 Feb 2005
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 30, 2013 5:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The cap situation really is as bad as it seems. Because of the "found" money we can't afford quality depth and have relied on "finding" guys, late in the draft or plugging in street FAs to fill out our roster.

Will we be able to get under the cap and keep our front line players...yes, but at what cost talent wise.

We have a problem. I call it "Roster Rot". Roster Rot is when you have an aging roster filled with under-performing players, with those same aging players and under-performers occupying a disproportionate amount of your available salary cap.

Because of Roster Rot we are unable to really turn over the roster in one season because the cap hits would be so large you wouldn't be able to fill out a roster. And because Roster Rot is pervasive and spreads so quickly waiting one season to fill a position (read Dline) will result in rot happening at another position the next season (read CB/RB/LB/S).

How do you prevent the Roster Rot...put your long term, high dollar contracts on proven QBs and LTs...everyone else is replaceable.
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Matts4313


Joined: 08 Dec 2004
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 30, 2013 5:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

TD-ES-JJ wrote:
We have a problem. I call it "Roster Rot". Roster Rot is when you have an aging roster filled with under-performing players


I dont see how anyone thinks this is true. Its not just you, but a lot of people on here talk about how we have an old core... Literally 30+ players on our roster are under 3 years in the league. Another 10 players are in their 4th year.


Assuming Austin is cut/traded this is what our cap cost looks like next year:


1. Romo (obivi)
2. Ware (and he maybe gone too)
3. Witten
4. Lee
5. Scandrick
6. Free (Likely gone in 2016)
7. Claiborne
8. Orton (likely gone..)
9. Macky B
10. Tyron Smith
11. Dez Bryant

When we get to August, we could quite possibly have 2 players over 30 with a starting job... Witten and Romo. And those would also be the only two people who are part of the old core/roster rot people talk about.
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Texas_OutLaw7


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 30, 2013 5:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Matts4313 wrote:
TD-ES-JJ wrote:
We have a problem. I call it "Roster Rot". Roster Rot is when you have an aging roster filled with under-performing players


I dont see how anyone thinks this is true. Its not just you, but a lot of people on here talk about how we have an old core... Literally 30+ players on our roster are under 3 years in the league. Another 10 players are in their 4th year.


Yeah, I don't get the false narrative either. At the end of this year we have 7 players over 30.
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Tony7188


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 30, 2013 6:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

What do you guys think of HaHa Clinton Dix? Should he be a target for the Cowboys?
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TD-ES-JJ


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 30, 2013 6:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Matts4313 wrote:
TD-ES-JJ wrote:
We have a problem. I call it "Roster Rot". Roster Rot is when you have an aging roster filled with under-performing players


I dont see how anyone thinks this is true. Its not just you, but a lot of people on here talk about how we have an old core... Literally 30+ players on our roster are under 3 years in the league. Another 10 players are in their 4th year.


Assuming Austin is cut/traded this is what our cap cost looks like next year:


1. Romo (obivi) (overpaid, but what can you do...he's the QB)
2. Ware (and he maybe gone too) (Prime example of Rot...big cap hit, aging and injured)
3. Witten (aging and overpaid for a TE and what he gives you)
4. Lee (good player...constantly injured)
5. Scandrick (severely overpaid for what he gives you and not getting better)
6. Free (Likely gone in 2016) (played well this year, but overpaid by a lot for a RT)
7. Claiborne (For what we gave up has been a bust, must get better)
8. Orton (likely gone..)(Draft a capable QB who cost less for christ sakes)
9. Macky B (overpaid desperation signing because we had no Guards because of previous rot)
10. Tyron Smith (Stud...Pay the man)
11. Dez Bryant (Stud...Will be overpaid and is too slow to be a top 5 WR, but will be paid like one)

When we get to August, we could quite possibly have 2 players over 30 with a starting job... Witten and Romo. And those would also be the only two people who are part of the old core/roster rot people talk about.

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buckwild


Joined: 25 Jan 2011
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PostPosted: Mon Dec 30, 2013 6:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="Matts4313"]
TD-ES-JJ wrote:
We have a problem. I call it "Roster Rot". Roster Rot is when you have an aging roster filled with under-performing players


I dont see how anyone thinks this is true. Its not just you, but a lot of people on here talk about how we have an old core... Literally 30+ players on our roster are under 3 years in the league. Another 10 players are in their 4th year.


Assuming Austin is cut/traded this is what our cap cost looks like next year:


1. Romo (obivi)
2. Ware (and he maybe gone too)
3. Witten
4. Lee
5. Scandrick
6. Free (Likely gone in 2016)
7. Claiborne
8. Orton (likely gone..)
9. Macky B
10. Tyron Smith
11. Dez Bryant

When we get to August, we could quite possibly have 2 players over 30 with a starting job... Witten and Romo. And those would also be the only two people who are part of the old core/roster rot people talk about.[/quote

What about Carr? Cowboys need to find out what they have in Carter and Claiborne because neither is playing to their paychecks.

Most of the star players with the exception of Dez are players in their 30's, and that's why people think we are an older team. The Cowboys just need the younger players to step up and replace the aging ones.
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