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MrCincinnati


Joined: 10 Jul 2013
Posts: 2638
Location: Hamilton, OH
PostPosted: Tue Dec 10, 2013 9:39 pm    Post subject: Week 15 Playoff Picture and Projections Reply with quote

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

1.Broncos 11-2 (Clinched Playoff Berth)
2.Patriots 10-3
3.Bengals 9-4
4.Colts 8-5 (Clinched Division)
5.Chiefs 10-3
6.Ravens 7-6

In the Hunt:
7.Dolphins 7-6
8.Chargers 6-7
9.Jets 6-7

Im still gonna say an 8 loss team is out of the race, even it if means the wildcard spots.

At first I though the Bengals were out of the #2 seed race, but this week is the best shot the Bengals have right now to jump the Patriots

With a Bengals win, as well as a Ravens loss, the Bengals will clinch the division. A Bengals win plus a Dolphins loss would clinch a playoff spot

Games of Importance:

Thursday Night

1.Chargers @ Broncos - Need Chargers win (Just want to see the Broncos lose some momentum)

1st Slate

1.Patriots @ Dolphins - Need Dolphins win (This might be the last chance for a #2 seed)
2.Texans @ Colts - Need Texans win (Wanting the Colts to stay locked in the #4 seed)

2nd Slate

1.Chiefs @ Raiders - Need Raiders win (Wanting the Chiefs to stay locked in the #5 seed)
2.Jets @ Panthers - Need Panthers win (One more Jets loss would eliminate them, unless everyone wants them in the 6th seed if they can make it)

Monday Night

1.Ravens @ Lions - Need Lions win (Don't need to explain)

Projected Playoff Standings

Mr.Cincinnati's Playoff Machine

1.Broncos 14-2
2.Bengals 12-4
3.Patriots 12-4
4.Colts 10-6
5.Chiefs 13-3
6.Dolphins 10-6

7.Ravens 7-9
8.Chargers 7-9
9.Jets 7-9
10.Titans 7-9
11.Steelers 6-10
12.Jaguars 5-11
13.Browns 4-12
14.Raiders 4-12
15.Bills 4-12
16.Texans 2-14

Not being a homer here, because I honestly believe this will happen at the moment. My only problem with this is, if the Bengals play the Patriots in the division round, they will go one and done again. Anybody else I feel confident enough, but not the Patriots again.
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INbengalfan


Joined: 21 Jan 2006
Posts: 7808
Location: Richmond, IN
PostPosted: Wed Dec 11, 2013 8:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If we end up at #2, I am not scared of any matchup at home. Period. Denver is our only true matchup nightmare with all of ther injured DBs. I'd love to see the Dolphins or Chargers get to #6, so if we end up at #3, I like our chances. I have no faith in Marvin in those same team back-to-back layouts.
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CaptainStubing


Joined: 28 Nov 2013
Posts: 74
PostPosted: Wed Dec 11, 2013 10:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

you are correct. the race for the #2 seed is not over at all, especially considering the bengals have the head to head tiebreaker over the patriots and the patriots continue to get banged up so they could potentially lose a game.
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Hokie


Joined: 01 Apr 2012
Posts: 1115
PostPosted: Wed Dec 11, 2013 2:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I feel like the Bengals have a very real shot at the #2 seed. The Patriots have been extremely fortunate to win their last three games, and they just lost their best player (other than Brady). Their offense really struggled without him this year, and I think it's going to take a step back again. They have two tough road games over the next two weeks @ Miami and @ Baltimore. I think they lose at least one more, possibly two more games.

The Bengals, OTHH, seem to be hitting their stride (let's hope they're not peaking too early). The defense has held its own without Geno and Leon, and the offense has seen a spark since moving Whitworth to LG. Dalton looked great last week as well. Our toughest matchup left will be this week in Pittsburgh, IMO. If we're able to come out of Heinz with a victory, I feel very good about our chances at finishing 12-4. I'd be very surprised if we don't get the #2 seed at 12-4. I don't think Minnesota has much of a shot at beating us in the Jungle, and I don't see us resting our starters vs Baltimore in the season finale.

Third week in a row we've had a huge game ahead, but this team has been answering the bell. It goes without saying that we could really use a Dolphins and Lions victory this week as well.
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LondonBengal


Joined: 07 Feb 2010
Posts: 5043
Location: London, England, UK
PostPosted: Wed Dec 11, 2013 5:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hokie wrote:
I don't think Minnesota has much of a shot at beating us in the Jungle.......

They played The Ravens tough last week without AP, and were very close to beating them. I agree we should beat them, but it'll be another tough game IMO.

Patterson looks real dangerous......
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MrCincinnati


Joined: 10 Jul 2013
Posts: 2638
Location: Hamilton, OH
PostPosted: Wed Dec 11, 2013 9:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My problem is that the Patriots have the playoff winning experience. The Bengals do not. I don't really care if the Bengals already beat them earlier this year. I still view the Patriots as a better team than the Bengals despite that. The same goes for the Broncos whom already lost to the Pats this year. I still think the Broncos are better than them.

The Bengals lost to teams like the Bears, Browns, Dolphins, and Ravens, but at the end of the day, the Bengals are still better than all of them IMO.

The way I see it as the rankings of the AFC teams

1.Broncos
2.Patriots
3.Chiefs
4.Bengals
5.Dolphins
6.Colts
7.Ravens
8.Chargers
9.Jets

I feel good about playing any team in the playoffs, just as long as its not the Broncos, Patriots, or Ravens though. Any other team, I see the streak ending.
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INbengalfan


Joined: 21 Jan 2006
Posts: 7808
Location: Richmond, IN
PostPosted: Thu Dec 12, 2013 8:24 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MrCincinnati wrote:
1.Broncos
2.Patriots
3.Chiefs
4.Bengals
5.Dolphins
6.Colts
7.Ravens
8.Chargers
9.Jets

I feel good about playing any team in the playoffs, just as long as its not the Broncos, Patriots, or Ravens though. Any other team, I see the streak ending.


That only leaves the Chiefs and Colts though, and they are slated to play each other at the moment. I find that wishing for certain matchups always comes back to bite us in the end.
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Hokie


Joined: 01 Apr 2012
Posts: 1115
PostPosted: Thu Dec 12, 2013 4:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MrCincinnati wrote:
My problem is that the Patriots have the playoff winning experience. The Bengals do not. I don't really care if the Bengals already beat them earlier this year. I still view the Patriots as a better team than the Bengals despite that. The same goes for the Broncos whom already lost to the Pats this year. I still think the Broncos are better than them.

The Bengals lost to teams like the Bears, Browns, Dolphins, and Ravens, but at the end of the day, the Bengals are still better than all of them IMO.

The way I see it as the rankings of the AFC teams

1.Broncos
2.Patriots
3.Chiefs
4.Bengals
5.Dolphins
6.Colts
7.Ravens
8.Chargers
9.Jets

I feel good about playing any team in the playoffs, just as long as its not the Broncos, Patriots, or Ravens though. Any other team, I see the streak ending.


I think you're selling our Bengals short. We're a really, really good football team, even with the injuries. If the offense finds any consistency at all, we're easily the biggest threat to Denver in the playoffs. New England lost Gronk which IMO, is a critical blow to their offense. They struggled all season without him, and I expect their offense to go from great to average (again) without him. As for the Chiefs, I have no idea what everyone sees in them. They certainly take care of business against weak teams, but they've lost 3 of 4 and have benefited from playing a cupcake schedule.

I also think you're overvaluing playoff experience. The Ravens may be the defending SB champs, but they are nowhere close to the team they were last year. They had a (IMO) fluky run and they've lost their biggest leaders (Lewis, Reed). I'm not afraid of facing Baltimore in the playoffs.

I'd rank the AFC teams in the following order, as of today:

1) Broncos
2) Bengals
3) Chiefs
4) Patriots
5) Colts
6) Ravens
7) Dolphins
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MrCincinnati


Joined: 10 Jul 2013
Posts: 2638
Location: Hamilton, OH
PostPosted: Thu Dec 12, 2013 7:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

INbengalfan wrote:
MrCincinnati wrote:
1.Broncos
2.Patriots
3.Chiefs
4.Bengals
5.Dolphins
6.Colts
7.Ravens
8.Chargers
9.Jets

I feel good about playing any team in the playoffs, just as long as its not the Broncos, Patriots, or Ravens though. Any other team, I see the streak ending.


That only leaves the Chiefs and Colts though, and they are slated to play each other at the moment. I find that wishing for certain matchups always comes back to bite us in the end.


And yet wishing to be the #2 seed isn't gonna possibly come back to bite the Team either? The whole point right now is to hope to play the weakest team possible in the playoffs right now. The focus still is to win the AFC North first, but I want the weakest team in the playoffs there is, regardless of the risk. If the Bengals lose to a team they shouldn't of lost to, what do you think would happen if they played a team that was better? It would be the same result, but worse.

The only bad thing for maybe wanting a team like the Dolphins to beat the Patriots, is then the Dolphins would have to go play the Broncos and probably have no chance of winning. A team like the Chiefs or Colts can go toe to toe with the Broncos, as both teams have shown it. But that's if your aiming for the Superbowl. I don't view this team as Superbowl caliber right now due to the injuries.
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MrCincinnati


Joined: 10 Jul 2013
Posts: 2638
Location: Hamilton, OH
PostPosted: Thu Dec 12, 2013 7:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hokie wrote:
MrCincinnati wrote:
My problem is that the Patriots have the playoff winning experience. The Bengals do not. I don't really care if the Bengals already beat them earlier this year. I still view the Patriots as a better team than the Bengals despite that. The same goes for the Broncos whom already lost to the Pats this year. I still think the Broncos are better than them.

The Bengals lost to teams like the Bears, Browns, Dolphins, and Ravens, but at the end of the day, the Bengals are still better than all of them IMO.

The way I see it as the rankings of the AFC teams

1.Broncos
2.Patriots
3.Chiefs
4.Bengals
5.Dolphins
6.Colts
7.Ravens
8.Chargers
9.Jets

I feel good about playing any team in the playoffs, just as long as its not the Broncos, Patriots, or Ravens though. Any other team, I see the streak ending.


I think you're selling our Bengals short. We're a really, really good football team, even with the injuries. If the offense finds any consistency at all, we're easily the biggest threat to Denver in the playoffs. New England lost Gronk which IMO, is a critical blow to their offense. They struggled all season without him, and I expect their offense to go from great to average (again) without him. As for the Chiefs, I have no idea what everyone sees in them. They certainly take care of business against weak teams, but they've lost 3 of 4 and have benefited from playing a cupcake schedule.

I also think you're overvaluing playoff experience. The Ravens may be the defending SB champs, but they are nowhere close to the team they were last year. They had a (IMO) fluky run and they've lost their biggest leaders (Lewis, Reed). I'm not afraid of facing Baltimore in the playoffs.

I'd rank the AFC teams in the following order, as of today:

1) Broncos
2) Bengals
3) Chiefs
4) Patriots
5) Colts
6) Ravens
7) Dolphins


The Patriots have injuries, but didn't the Bengals lose a critical player on there team in Geno Atkins too? And did it affect that much? Nope. Too early to say if it will affect the Pats right now with the Gronk injury. He has barely played this year anyway, and the team just continues to win games, which is what matters in the NFL.

Chiefs overall had the easy schedule earlier now, but they now played the Broncos twice so its not like there schedule was all easy, even though they didn't win either game, because both games they stayed in it. And Alex Smith already knows what to expect during playoff time, so that helps them out too.

Ravens look so much weaker compared to last year, however didnt' everyone else say the Ravens wouldn't go very far after losing 4 out of there last 5 in the regular season? And then the rest was history. The Ravens have been doing something right. That's why they managed to win a playoff game the last 5 years. Not to mention the Bengals can never seem to play well against them. For whatever reason, during the Dalton era, the Bengals CANNOT seem to beat the Ravens.

The Bengals have all the potential in the world to be a Superbowl team, it just all depends on how they do in the Playoffs. If they play on the road, I don't think they can get it done since they never have won on the road in the postseason, therefore I don't see them as the Biggest threat to the Broncos yet.

The best thing is to hope for a #2 seed, get lucky against the Pats if thats whom they play, and then pray they don't play the Broncos. If they don't get the #2 seed, then I still think they win a playoff game.
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theJ


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Posts: 23192
PostPosted: Fri Dec 13, 2013 7:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

With the Broncos loss last night, the Patriots now control the #1 seed.

Bengals really need a Pats loss now to get the #2 seed.
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INbengalfan


Joined: 21 Jan 2006
Posts: 7808
Location: Richmond, IN
PostPosted: Fri Dec 13, 2013 8:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MrCincinnati wrote:
And yet wishing to be the #2 seed isn't gonna possibly come back to bite the Team either? The whole point right now is to hope to play the weakest team possible in the playoffs right now. The focus still is to win the AFC North first, but I want the weakest team in the playoffs there is, regardless of the risk. If the Bengals lose to a team they shouldn't of lost to, what do you think would happen if they played a team that was better? It would be the same result, but worse.

The only bad thing for maybe wanting a team like the Dolphins to beat the Patriots, is then the Dolphins would have to go play the Broncos and probably have no chance of winning. A team like the Chiefs or Colts can go toe to toe with the Broncos, as both teams have shown it. But that's if your aiming for the Superbowl. I don't view this team as Superbowl caliber right now due to the injuries.



More pessimism. Getting the #2 seed means you are already one step deeper into the playoffs. For this team, getting that home game a week later bodes well, given the way this team has played at home this year.

You mention trying to play the "weakest team". This is the playoffs. There are no truly weak teams. My point about playing teams back to back is that we are 0-2 in those games. Most people said they wanted to play the Jets again in '09. We lost. They wanted to play Houston again in '11. We lost. In '05, people were riding high and actually wanting to play the Steelers (sort of like beating them in the playoffs would be superb). That didn't work out very well either.

There are teams that the Bengals matcvh up well against. The only bad matchup is Denver, given the injuries at DB. If we are the #2 saeed and they are the #1, we'd go there for the AFCCgame, not the divisional round. I'll take my chances.
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theJ


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Joined: 20 Mar 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Dec 13, 2013 12:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

INbengalfan wrote:
MrCincinnati wrote:
And yet wishing to be the #2 seed isn't gonna possibly come back to bite the Team either? The whole point right now is to hope to play the weakest team possible in the playoffs right now. The focus still is to win the AFC North first, but I want the weakest team in the playoffs there is, regardless of the risk. If the Bengals lose to a team they shouldn't of lost to, what do you think would happen if they played a team that was better? It would be the same result, but worse.

The only bad thing for maybe wanting a team like the Dolphins to beat the Patriots, is then the Dolphins would have to go play the Broncos and probably have no chance of winning. A team like the Chiefs or Colts can go toe to toe with the Broncos, as both teams have shown it. But that's if your aiming for the Superbowl. I don't view this team as Superbowl caliber right now due to the injuries.



More pessimism. Getting the #2 seed means you are already one step deeper into the playoffs. For this team, getting that home game a week later bodes well, given the way this team has played at home this year.

You mention trying to play the "weakest team". This is the playoffs. There are no truly weak teams. My point about playing teams back to back is that we are 0-2 in those games. Most people said they wanted to play the Jets again in '09. We lost. They wanted to play Houston again in '11. We lost. In '05, people were riding high and actually wanting to play the Steelers (sort of like beating them in the playoffs would be superb). That didn't work out very well either.

There are teams that the Bengals matcvh up well against. The only bad matchup is Denver, given the injuries at DB. If we are the #2 saeed and they are the #1, we'd go there for the AFCCgame, not the divisional round. I'll take my chances.

Yup, can't worry about who you play. Try to get the highest seed possible to get home field and then worry about the team after that.
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futbudds


Joined: 20 May 2008
Posts: 1903
Location: Bungleville
PostPosted: Fri Dec 13, 2013 1:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

theJ wrote:
INbengalfan wrote:
MrCincinnati wrote:
And yet wishing to be the #2 seed isn't gonna possibly come back to bite the Team either? The whole point right now is to hope to play the weakest team possible in the playoffs right now. The focus still is to win the AFC North first, but I want the weakest team in the playoffs there is, regardless of the risk. If the Bengals lose to a team they shouldn't of lost to, what do you think would happen if they played a team that was better? It would be the same result, but worse.

The only bad thing for maybe wanting a team like the Dolphins to beat the Patriots, is then the Dolphins would have to go play the Broncos and probably have no chance of winning. A team like the Chiefs or Colts can go toe to toe with the Broncos, as both teams have shown it. But that's if your aiming for the Superbowl. I don't view this team as Superbowl caliber righI'd now due to the injuries.



More pessimism. Getting the #2 seed means you are already one step deeper into the playoffs. For this team, getting that home game a week later bodes well, given the way this team has played at home this year.

You mention trying to play the "weakest team". This is the playoffs. There are no truly weak teams. My point about playing teams back to back is that we are 0-2 in those games. Most people said they wanted to play the Jets again in '09. We lost. They wanted to play Houston again in '11. We lost. In '05, people were riding high and actually wanting to play the Steelers (sort of like beating them in the playoffs would be superb). That didn't work out very well either.

There are teams that the Bengals matcvh up well against. The only bad matchup is Denver, given the injuries at DB. If we are the #2 saeed and they are the #1, we'd go there for the AFCCgame, not the divisional round. I'll take my chances.

Yup, can't worry about who you play. Try to get the highest seed possible to get home field and then worry about the team after that.


Exactly, this team is aces at home. Win out and hope for home playoff games. The rest will sort itself out.
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Carson4MVP


Joined: 30 Mar 2007
Posts: 1885
Location: Hilliard
PostPosted: Fri Dec 13, 2013 1:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

At the end of the day you have to win 3 possibly 2 games to win the AFC. You are going to have to win against tough teams. Can't worry about matchups, just have to hope the boys show up to play come playoff time. Defense has shown some chinks in their armor last couple weeks, hopefully Zimmer whips them back up into shape before the start of the playoffs. We are going to need them at their best.
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