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Apollo Stallion


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 20, 2013 5:00 pm    Post subject: 2014 QB Market Reply with quote

For the first time in several years, it's time to focus on the future in November and for only the 3rd time in a dozen years it is time to decide who the QB of the future is. I think this decision point requires it's own thread to cover all the nuances as along with a coaching change, these moves will determine the type of team we will be rooting for for the next 5 to 7 years using history as our guide or perhaps longer if we truly make the right long-term choice. I am operating under the assumption that Schaub's failure to pull out the Oakland game and subsequent benching cleared up any doubts that we will be cutting him lose in the offseason and I suspect Kubiak's fate was also sealed with the move.

While Keenum still has the opportunity to prove himself worthy of competing for the 2014 starting job with the remaining 6 games, hopefully most lucid Texan fans understand that the talent atop the 2014 draft class presents significant upside over Keenum who still hasn't won a game and is still in the honeymoon phase before DCs have enough to pick apart his tape, although halftime adjustments have even been enough. Keenum actually strikes me as an ideal transitional QB as he's mature enough to lead even in lean times, yet doesn't bring an ego too large to know when he needs to step aside. He's playing with house money right now and he should play out the hand, but there should be no illusions that we need to restock the talent pool at the most important position in sports.
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amazingandre


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 20, 2013 5:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Heres my dilemma. Our team needs help in a lot of spots. You could argur we need a starting lg, rt, ol, ilb, olb, cb, s and k. Not to mention special team players. So adding qb to that list really alters our plans moving forward. I know Case has lots to improve on, but burning a top 5 pick on qb may not be the best choice. Whoever becomes head coach has a mess to clean up.
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Apollo Stallion


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 20, 2013 5:32 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

One of the nuances of the QB decision that has been under analyzed in Texans history are the past decisions. I don't want to engage in a protracted debate about water under the bridge and will acknowledge that the moves to get Carr and Schaub were "close" to the best moves that could have been made at the time, but ultimately the difference between the great teams and merely good is making the EXACT right move and we failed on both fronts previously. The Texans don't do a great job of learning from our mistakes and I think it's important to review them briefly.

The David Carr move made sense everywhere except the football field. He was a pretty boy married all-american apple pie kid who we could put on posters and be proud of and he had a pretty good set of tools to build around. The problem was that we ignored expansion history where QBs get destroyed and hired the exact same guy who presided over the destruction of Tim Couch (Chris Palmer). Sure, Casserly's plan to bookend Tony Bosseli and Ryan Young along with Steve McKinney and Pitts/Weary looked good on paper, but it never materialized due to our lack of due diligence on the injury front. We also failed in our evaluation of Carr's leadership skills as his work ethic and commitment to football were marginal at best and for all the toughness he displayed in getting up hit after hit, he never put the work in to figure out how to improve his release or prioritize getting rid of the ball in a manner less damaging than sacks and turnovers.

Other lessons to heed:
1) Don't take a franchise QB just because you think that has to come first when you are a bad team. Julius Peppers was CLEARLY the best player in that draft and you adapt to that talent. Tony Banks would have been fine back there a season or two absorbing all those hits and we could have made our move for the franchise Qb will Carson Palmer in 2003 or preferably Eli, Rivers, or Big Ben in 04. If Clowney is there for us, you don't reach for Manziel or Hundley. See Chiefs, Seahawks, 49ers, etc.

2) Extensive due diligence on injuries. I don't care if it takes Bob giving Dr. James Andrews the Jersey power plant business, the Texans have GOT to find a way to not be the team that gets burned with damaged goods. The Boselli move set us back 4 years, Ahman Green a few more, and the Ed Reed move and Brennan Williams pick certainly were major factors in our flop this season.
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Apollo Stallion


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 20, 2013 6:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

It's much harder to gripe with the Matt Schaub move as we got a 6.5 year starter and 3 time Pro Bowler out of two 2nd round picks which holds up well even with this season's meltdown, especially with 07 being one of the worst draft classes ever (Russell, Quinn, Kolb, Beck, Stanton). I will forever maintain that if paired with even an average defense from 07-10 we would have notched at least 2 more playoff runs and if the Jets were good enough to get a game away from the Super Bowl with Sanchez, there is no reason we couldn't have in those years.

Now what we CAN gripe with is our failure to address the QB position in 2006. Kubiak was convinced he could "fix" David Carr and instead of getting out of Carr's #1 overall pick monster contract scott free, we took the 3 year option and created a huge dead space hole to overcome 07-09. Worse still, we bypassed a Texas kid in Drew Brees who transformed the Saints and is getting close to Hall of Fame level. Again, it's all about timing and we whiffed badly here (although not as bad as the Dolphins who took Daunte Culpepper instead).

Other lessons to learn:
1) Don't put all your eggs in one basket. Kubiak overcompensated for Schaub's fragile ego by repeatedly bypassing draftable talent that would have pushed/threatened him because he saw how quickly people hopped on the Sage bandwagon. Obviously you can't go out and sign big name free agents or draft QBs high in successive years, but many of the leagues success stories were built out of competition at the QB spot and not treating it as if it is a birthright. Heck, Matt Flynn was beaten out two striaght offseasons, Brian Hoyer energized the Browns, Foles has the Eagles in 1st, and of course the bold Russel and Kaepernick moves.

2) Attitude matters. Again, I think Schaub got hosed a bit here as the whole "lack of playoff success" take was overblown as you don't see Super Bowl winners like Flacco, Eli, or Ben going anywhere this season without a top flight running attack or defense, but without question Schaub's mopey attitude failed to exude complete confidence either. There is obviously a balance here as you can accept a less than ideal attitude with a talent like Cam, while all the positivity in the world wouldn't overcome Tebow's lack of NFL quality QB skills. Being the Texans QB is actually a much easier job than most as evidenced by how quickly the fanbase embraced the limited skillsets of Keenum and Yates, but we also have to recognize that being a Texan means toiling in a bit of obscurity which actually could lend itself to a developmental type. This eventually turns as we have fan base who's knowledge of football generally starts and ends with blaming QBs and Kickers when things go wrong.

3) Ignore hometown or college sentiment - I'm already preparing for all the mocks to put Johnny here because NFL teams always draft players to "energize" the fanbase (um, nowhere). Keenum has been a nice subplot, but "popularity" is relative and I don't think too many Broncos fans are missing Tebow right about now. I suspect the calls will be even louder than they were with Vince, but no less problematic as he brings even larger holes in his game than VY had and you can't play the "winner" card as Johnny hasn't led his team to anything beyond an elevated ranking, one unexpected signature win and 4 losses in which his role continues to be understated. By the way, the same holds true for Jake Matthews who may fit a hole at RT, but if he had any other last name he'd be toppling down draft boards based on his poor pass protection this season.
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Apollo Stallion


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 20, 2013 7:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So enough of the history lesson, here's how I'd start to define the QB market for 2014. Here's the top of the draft with teams possibly in the market for a new QB next year. The way I see it, as many as 5 QBs could go top 15 and I can see 3 or 4 more between there and the end of the 2nd. If you notice, all 15 teams are within 2 games of the Texans, so there is still the potential for great movement.

1. Jacksonville (1-9)
2. Minnesota (2-8 )
3. Houston (2-8 )
4. Tampa Bay (2-8 )
5. Atlanta (2-8 )
6. St. Louis - from Washington (3-7)
7. Buffalo (4-7)
8. Pittsburgh (4-6)
9. Baltimore (4-6)
10. Cleveland (4-6)
11. Tennessee (4-6)
12. Oakland (4-6)
13. St. Louis (4-6)
14. San Diego (4-6)
15. New York Giants (4-6)

I would also include Chicago, Arizona, Philly, Cleveland (Indy's pick), KC, and Denver as potential players for a QB. Cutler is the only ironclad starter on the FA market (which terrifies me if Kubiak is still here) with Vick, Freeman, and Henne likely again given chances to win gigs and Weedon, Sanchez, Gabbert, Ponder, and Schaub highly likely to be on the market either before or after the draft. I think it would be VERY difficult for the Texans to sell in one of these "damaged goods" starters and Cutler might as well be Schaub's weak chinned little brother as the guy has NEVER won anything at any level.
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Bunsterx


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 20, 2013 7:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For right now my draft-eligible QB grades look like this:

Top 5: Bridgewater

Top 10: Bryce Petty, Marcus Mariota

11-32: Blake Bortles, Derek Carr

Early 2nd: Brett Hundley, Johnny Manziel

Late 2nd: Zach Mettenberger

3rd: Tajh Boyd, Jimmy Garoppolo, David Fales

4th: Aaron Murray, Brett Smith, Jeff Mathews

5th-UDFA: Stephen Morris, AJ McCarron, Braxton Miller, Tom Savage
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Apollo Stallion


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 20, 2013 7:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Going back to the trade route to find a backup that is blocked from a starting gig is always a possibility, but Matt Flynn has certainly damaged the market for the limited sample size backups waiting to shine (Hasselbeck, Schaub, etc). Personally, I've always wanted to see what Chase Daniel would do with a starting gig, but that would be a tough sale with Keenum presenting a similar template. It will be interesting to see what the Eagles do with Foles as he's afforded himself well, but you know he's far from Kelly's ideal. Kirk Cousins fits the profile, but they don't have much reason to move him absent a 2nd round offer which I don't see happening. Ryan Mallett will be a hot name especially with Hoyer showing well out of NE, but I don't see how he would rate over any of the 1st rounders or 2nd rounders this year and last year would have been the time to move him.

There are always a few you don't see coming and I can see some sentiment for the Rams moving Sam Bradford, but I think they'll have trouble finding a partner willing to take on that ridiculous contract even for a year. Jerry is crazy enough to grab Johnny and the headlines, but the Romo extension would create a mountain of dead space and their defense is a disaster. The Alex Smith factor may impact some GMs who think a change in scenery may revive a QB who has lost his luster, but to me you just need to follow the Dolphins post-Marino QB history to show why you need to bite the bullet and swing big for a real franchise QB and not half-measures.
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Apollo Stallion


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 20, 2013 8:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bunsterx wrote:
For right now my draft-eligible QB grades look like this:

Top 5: Bridgewater

Top 10: Bryce Petty, Marcus Mariota

11-32: Blake Bortles, Derek Carr

Early 2nd: Brett Hundley, Johnny Manziel

Late 2nd: Zach Mettenberger

3rd: Tajh Boyd, Jimmy Garoppolo, David Fales

4th: Aaron Murray, Brett Smith, Jeff Mathews

5th-UDFA: Stephen Morris, AJ McCarron, Braxton Miller, Tom Savage



I think you are vastly underestimating how high some of these will go. I think Hundley could easily go Top 10 before it's all over and even I can admit that unless he completely flops in the offseason, somebody is going to roll the dice with Johnny in the 1st (Cleveland or Oakland especially). I can see Tajh Boyd falling a bit due to height, but not all the way to the 3rd (EJ Manuel went top 10 last year). I think you have Stephen Morris a few rounds to low as he could easily be a 2nd rounder as well and McCarron and Murray will go higher on based on overhyped SEC rep.

I love my boy Petty, but I think it's pretty large stretch right now to put him into the top 10 or even first round as he's going to face the "look at Nick Florence's numbers" discounting of his accomplishments along with some "one hit wonder" fears. I reserve the right to adjust my opinion if he carries us this week in Stillwater with so many weapons hurt, but the past two weeks his slow release has hurt us early on and now losing his LT is going to present a challenge as he's got a bit of Schaub to him in not always reacting well to the pass rush. That being said he's got the prototype NFL body, a huge arm, amazing touch and ability to hit receivers in stride, doesn't turn the ball over, and has even displayed some quality wheels lately. Personally, he has the feel of a 3rd rounder with upside to me, but it's hard to deny what he's doing now that he has the opportunity. He should have already earned a ticket to NY for the Heisman Ceremony thus far if you adjust for how many games he didn't even play in 2nd half, but things could get VERY interesting after this week, especially if Johhny throws a few more picks in Baton Rouge.
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Bunsterx


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 20, 2013 9:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Apollo Stallion wrote:



I think you are vastly underestimating how high some of these will go. I think Hundley could easily go Top 10 before it's all over and even I can admit that unless he completely flops in the offseason, somebody is going to roll the dice with Johnny in the 1st (Cleveland or Oakland especially). I can see Tajh Boyd falling a bit due to height, but not all the way to the 3rd (EJ Manuel went top 10 last year). I think you have Stephen Morris a few rounds to low as he could easily be a 2nd rounder as well and McCarron and Murray will go higher on based on overhyped SEC rep.

I love my boy Petty, but I think it's pretty large stretch right now to put him into the top 10 or even first round as he's going to face the "look at Nick Florence's numbers" discounting of his accomplishments along with some "one hit wonder" fears. I reserve the right to adjust my opinion if he carries us this week in Stillwater with so many weapons hurt, but the past two weeks his slow release has hurt us early on and now losing his LT is going to present a challenge as he's got a bit of Schaub to him in not always reacting well to the pass rush. That being said he's got the prototype NFL body, a huge arm, amazing touch and ability to hit receivers in stride, doesn't turn the ball over, and has even displayed some quality wheels lately. Personally, he has the feel of a 3rd rounder with upside to me, but it's hard to deny what he's doing now that he has the opportunity. He should have already earned a ticket to NY for the Heisman Ceremony thus far if you adjust for how many games he didn't even play in 2nd half, but things could get VERY interesting after this week, especially if Johhny throws a few more picks in Baton Rouge.

The list wasn't a prediction. It was a personal evaluation of where I believe they should go based off of what I've watched.

I completely agree that most of the quarterbacks will be drafted sooner.

My favorite thing about Bryce Petty, to add to everything you mentioned, is his ability to place the ball where only his receiver can make a play on it. Having only one interception so far is not a fluke.
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Apollo Stallion


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2013 4:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bunsterx wrote:
Apollo Stallion wrote:



I think you are vastly underestimating how high some of these will go. I think Hundley could easily go Top 10 before it's all over and even I can admit that unless he completely flops in the offseason, somebody is going to roll the dice with Johnny in the 1st (Cleveland or Oakland especially). I can see Tajh Boyd falling a bit due to height, but not all the way to the 3rd (EJ Manuel went top 10 last year). I think you have Stephen Morris a few rounds to low as he could easily be a 2nd rounder as well and McCarron and Murray will go higher on based on overhyped SEC rep.

I love my boy Petty, but I think it's pretty large stretch right now to put him into the top 10 or even first round as he's going to face the "look at Nick Florence's numbers" discounting of his accomplishments along with some "one hit wonder" fears. I reserve the right to adjust my opinion if he carries us this week in Stillwater with so many weapons hurt, but the past two weeks his slow release has hurt us early on and now losing his LT is going to present a challenge as he's got a bit of Schaub to him in not always reacting well to the pass rush. That being said he's got the prototype NFL body, a huge arm, amazing touch and ability to hit receivers in stride, doesn't turn the ball over, and has even displayed some quality wheels lately. Personally, he has the feel of a 3rd rounder with upside to me, but it's hard to deny what he's doing now that he has the opportunity. He should have already earned a ticket to NY for the Heisman Ceremony thus far if you adjust for how many games he didn't even play in 2nd half, but things could get VERY interesting after this week, especially if Johhny throws a few more picks in Baton Rouge.

The list wasn't a prediction. It was a personal evaluation of where I believe they should go based off of what I've watched.

I completely agree that most of the quarterbacks will be drafted sooner.

My favorite thing about Bryce Petty, to add to everything you mentioned, is his ability to place the ball where only his receiver can make a play on it. Having only one interception so far is not a fluke.


Plenty can change especially if Petty leads Baylor to the Big 12 Championship which might also mean a Heisman, but Petty is FAR from a lock to go pro after the season as he has another season of eligibility and the best crop of WR recruits in the country on its way to Waco. Baylor opens a beautiful new Riverfront stadium next year and should be in the national spotlight all season. If Petty bumps up to a clear first rounder he's got to go, but if he's still sitting around the 5th or 6th QB, he would be wise to stick around another year as he's got a shot at becoming the top 10 pick you describe.

BTW - Petty was born and bred to play in the SEC growing up in Alabama and Arkansas with cousins playing for LSU. He committed to Tenn drawing Peyton comparisons, but after Fullmer was fired Kiffin ran Tajh Boyd off to Clemson and didn't even bother to contact his future QB in Petty for 10 days. Briles hopped in and managed to keep Petty engaged enough to bide his time behind RG3 and Florence including a rare "grey shirt" season. Kiffin bolted to USC the next year where he destroyed Matt Barkley's draft stock.
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amazingandre


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2013 4:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Based on what I have seen, all the top guys have big time accuracy issues. TBH I think I like Murray the best. Obviously he won't be a top guy, with all the hype Teddy, Marcus and Johnny get, but to me, Murray will fair best in the NFL.
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Bunsterx


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2013 7:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

amazingandre wrote:
Based on what I have seen, all the top guys have big time accuracy issues. TBH I think I like Murray the best. Obviously he won't be a top guy, with all the hype Teddy, Marcus and Johnny get, but to me, Murray will fair best in the NFL.

I struggle to find much to get excited about with him. Murray is the definition of a low-ceiling prospect. Average arm-strength, below-average height, good but not great athleticism to start.

But those aren't even his biggest issues. He has developed very little over his college career which can be alarming. Maybe different coaches will change that but that is far from a guarantee. He has a terrible time putting any sort of touch on his passes and he doesn't read defenses or see passing lanes very well. I don't think he will bust, but I project a back up who can maybe start and not be a disaster. Solid football character from I've read/seen though.
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amazingandre


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2013 7:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Bunsterx wrote:
amazingandre wrote:
Based on what I have seen, all the top guys have big time accuracy issues. TBH I think I like Murray the best. Obviously he won't be a top guy, with all the hype Teddy, Marcus and Johnny get, but to me, Murray will fair best in the NFL.

I struggle to find much to get excited about with him. Murray is the definition of a low-ceiling prospect. Average arm-strength, below-average height, good but not great athleticism to start.

But those aren't even his biggest issues. He has developed very little over his college career which can be alarming. Maybe different coaches will change that but that is far from a guarantee. He has a terrible time putting any sort of touch on his passes and he doesn't read defenses or see passing lanes very well. I don't think he will bust, but I project a back up who can maybe start and not be a disaster. Solid football character from I've read/seen though.


I see the opposite, I see good arm strength, great field vision, good athleticism, but a terrible supporting cast. His oline is pathetic. He commands respect when he drops back and if given any time at all, he can make you pay for blitzing. I think of all the passers his accuracy is the best when in the pocket (Mariota imo is the best passer on the run but he is wildly inconsistent with his passes, Mariota tends to sail his passes too often). While you call him "low ceiling" I call him NFL ready. Don't forget people, as much fun as RG3, Kaep and Wilson are, no qb like that HAS EVER won a super bowl....

Will be a great off-season, should be fun.
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Bunsterx


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2013 7:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

amazingandre wrote:


I see the opposite, I see good arm strength, great field vision, good athleticism, but a terrible supporting cast. His oline is pathetic. He commands respect when he drops back and if given any time at all, he can make you pay for blitzing. I think of all the passers his accuracy is the best when in the pocket (Mariota imo is the best passer on the run but he is wildly inconsistent with his passes, Mariota tends to sail his passes too often). While you call him "low ceiling" I call him NFL ready. Don't forget people, as much fun as RG3, Kaep and Wilson are, no qb like that HAS EVER won a super bowl....

Will be a great off-season, should be fun.

We'll have to respectfully disagree on Murray then. I agree that his supporting cast, partially due to injuries, isn't doing him many favors.

I think Bridgewater is the best passer from the pocket. Mariota has a long ways to go as a passer in general.
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Raz


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 21, 2013 7:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like the potential in Case Keenum, and if we can't get Teddy then i'd want to go other position with our pick.Barr or Louis Nix could fix the D.
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