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Johnny Manziel vs. Derek Carr
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Adrenaline_Flux


Joined: 19 Dec 2008
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 8:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Johnny Manziel
QB - Texas A&M
6'1" 210 pounds


Pros: Elite ability to improvise... high confidence & ability to command an offense... composed under pressure... mobile, diverse QB... high production in power conference

Cons: Arm strength is average to below average... footwork inconsistent... often is one-read-and-go, short pass, or relies too much on improvisation... hitch in throwing motion that creates a slow delivery... combination of strength, footwork, and throwing motion often leads to inaccurate passes... maturity concerns... lack of ideal height and weight.

Other: Raw prospect... arm strength, delivery, accuracy could improve if mechanics refined... tremendous athleticism and "it" as demonstrated by his Heisman performance and improvised plays.

NFL Comparison: Ceiling - (Athletic) Eli Manning; Optimistically Realistic - (Athletic) Byron Leftwich (the irony); Realistically is in between Tim Tebow & Colin Klein.

Current Round Grade: Third Level QB (11th-15th rated draft-eligible QB); lateish round grade (fringe 5th) with flexibility to spend a mid round selection due to potential.
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Vino


Joined: 27 Oct 2013
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Location: Jacksonville, FL
PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Johnny Manziel
QB - Texas A&M
6'1" 210 pounds


Pros: Elite ability to improvise... high confidence & ability to command an offense... composed under pressure... mobile, diverse QB... high production in power conference

Cons: Arm strength is average to below average... footwork inconsistent... often is one-read-and-go, short pass, or relies too much on improvisation... hitch in throwing motion that creates a slow delivery... combination of strength, footwork, and throwing motion often leads to inaccurate passes... maturity concerns... lack of ideal height and weight.

Other: Raw prospect... arm strength, delivery, accuracy could improve if mechanics refined... tremendous athleticism and "it" as demonstrated by his Heisman performance and improvised plays.

NFL Comparison: Ceiling - (Athletic) Eli Manning; Optimistically Realistic - (Athletic) Byron Leftwich (the irony); Realistically is in between Tim Tebow & Colin Klein.

Current Round Grade: Third Level QB (11th-15th rated draft-eligible QB); lateish round grade (fringe 5th) with flexibility to spend a mid round selection due to potential.

I don't agree with this at all.
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wiseman101


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Carr, a much better pro passer
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iPwn


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I find that scouting report to be pretty much spot on.
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Adrenaline_Flux


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Honestly, thinking about it right now, Manziel is kind of what you (Vino) think Mariota is.
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Adrenaline_Flux


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Should be noted that scouting report is from before the 2013 season.
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Vino


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 12:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Should be noted that scouting report is from before the 2013 season.

Yes, I can tell.
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Adrenaline_Flux


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 12:29 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vino wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Should be noted that scouting report is from before the 2013 season.

Yes, I can tell.


Dat 'tude.

Manziel's 2013 work is improved, but it's still nowhere near where it needs to be. I still think he's better served, football-wise, returning to school in 2014 and possibly even 2015. I doubt he does that though.
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Vino


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 12:30 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If you watch him now he's improved leaps and bounds from where he was last year as a pocket passer. He's not killing teams on his feet this year, he's killing teams in the air. He only scrambles now and goes for first downs when they're clear, a lot like Wilson. Current Manziel is way further along than Mariota. You clearly see that he's going through multiple progressions now and is doing next level stuff like tricking safeties with his eyes. He also reads more of the defense now and I've seen him make play adjustments at the LOS. He's nothing like Tebow and is a legit NFL QB. He also has really great arm strength considering he barely uses his lower body sometimes and STILL makes 20+ yard passes. When he steps into his throws he can pretty much make any throw.
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Tugboat


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 12:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Do i have to pick one of those two guys? Because i really don't want to. Confused

Manziel obviously has some intriguing talent and there's a real 'it factor' there, but as a pro QB...there are just so many questionmarks, and you top that all off with the 'character concerns'. No thanks.

Carr, i can see what people like there. But it just has disaster written all over it, especially when you're talking about a team with an O-Line as bad as ours. If he stands any chance of been successful in the NFL...it's not in a place like Jacksonville imo.

Its A Sabotage wrote:
iPwn wrote:
Ugh. Do not want Carr. He's got the makings of turning into his brother with how skiddish he is in the pocket at times.


He's fixed that this year.


I'm not really convinced of this. There may be a bit less outright 'panic' type moments where he abandons all interest in passing the ball down field and starts bouncing around and running for his life a la Blaine Gabbert. But there's still plenty of the 'rushed' plays, panic reads under pressure, and plenty of just winging it off his back foot as he falls away when it looks like he might be under duress soon.

There have been improvements there i think, but i think 'fixed' is a pretty strong overstatement based on what i'm seeing.
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Adrenaline_Flux


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 12:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vino wrote:
If you watch him now he's improved leaps and bounds from where he was last year as a pocket passer. He's not killing teams on his feet this year, he's killing teams in the air. He only scrambles now and goes for first downs when they're clear, a lot like Wilson. Current Manziel is way further along than Mariota. You clearly see that he's going through multiple progressions now and is doing next level stuff like tricking safeties with his eyes. He also reads more of the defense now and I've seen him make play adjustments at the LOS. He's nothing like Tebow and is a legit NFL QB. He also has really great arm strength considering he barely uses his lower body sometimes and STILL makes 20+ yard passes. When he steps into his throws he can pretty much make any throw.


That first line really isn't saying much.

I don't really see him doing any of that stuff lol. At least, not consistently. I see Mariota doing a lot of those things though. Manziel still does A LOT of Rex Grossman Unleash the Dragon stuff too. I think his first season starting will be an interception tsunami. I could definitely be wrong, but I don't see anything now that makes me think that I am. The only thing is that he has improved dramatically (again, not really the hard of a set standard) and he does have an "it factor" about him. I still wouldn't spend higher than a 3rd or 4th on him though.
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Tugboat


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 12:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

iPwn wrote:
Vino wrote:
What about Johnny?
Needs a lot of work fixing his footwork and could probably stand to tighten up his mechanics. He has a ton of habits that will turn into a ton of mistakes at the NFL level, and some of that is instinctual and won't be coached out of him. I'm going to watch more of him, but right now I like him more than Carr, but not enough that he's higher than a plan D type option at QB.

I'm not a fan of second round talent at the QB position in general. Quarterback is the most important position on the field and it's so rare that you find someone that isn't seriously flawed past the first round. Guys like Russell Wilson and Drew Brees were first round players who dropped because of a misread on how their measurable a (height) effect them. I don't see anyone here being graded lower because of height or size (one of the reasons Bradt dropped) or even because they are "needs a year or two to develop" type guys like Kaep, most guys are getting the lower grades because of somewhat fatal flaws in their game that will give them a hell of a time transitioning to the NFL. And unless you find one of those "misjudged" guys, you're capping out at Andy Dalton type QB play. And I've gone through too much with this team for 5-7 years of QB purgatory.

I'm firmly in the "find an elite QB and go get him" camp at 2.


For the most part, i'm pretty much in the same camp as the bolded. I'm not sure i have the patience to go putzing around with developing an 'average at best' starter.

Dalton is pretty much the 'poster child' for that 2nd round QB 'success story'. And yet even there, while he's having a pretty respectable level of success as an NFL QB with tremendous weapons around him...There's still that nagging uncertainty. Can the Bengals really win it all with Dalton at the helm? And Dalton is far from the only 'mid-tier' sort of QB where those questions swirl around.


Call it greedy, i don't care. This Jaguars team has never had an elite QB, and i want one. It's only fair. Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil
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Vino


Joined: 27 Oct 2013
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 1:01 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
That first line really isn't saying much.

I don't really see him doing any of that stuff lol. At least, not consistently. I see Mariota doing a lot of those things though. Manziel still does A LOT of Rex Grossman Unleash the Dragon stuff too. I think his first season starting will be an interception tsunami. I could definitely be wrong, but I don't see anything now that makes me think that I am. The only thing is that he has improved dramatically (again, not really the hard of a set standard) and he does have an "it factor" about him. I still wouldn't spend higher than a 3rd or 4th on him though.

Well we're just seeing different things. I never really see Mariota making his own reads or adjusting things at the LOS. And I barely see him go through progressions which is just an effect of his offense. It's bubble screen pass in the flat, hit the designated guy, if the designated guy isn't open check it down, if everyone is covered take off. 95% of the time this is all I see him do. Not to mention with the exception of Mike Evans Mariota plays with way faster and more athletic skill payers who put up a bunch of yards off those screen passes that inflate Mariota's stats. And just in general he never has to throw into tight windows because his guys are always butt wide open.

On the other hand with Johnny, I always see him looking around going through progressions trying to find the best guy to throw to, shifting his eyes to trick the safety, and throwing into tight windows. The amount of screen passes I see him take are way lower than Mariota and he also doesn't check it down every time his hot read isn't open. He'll take off if he sees an opening, but most of the time when he runs out the pocket it's because his sorry RT let someone get by. The fact he's able to avoid what would surely be sacks for 95% of players in college, extend plays, and then most of the time come up with a first down when the play breaks down, shows how poise he is as well and that will translate to the NFL. He outran and made CJ Mosley, a top NFL prospect, miss him in the open field. He's probably one of the best QB I've seen at avoiding contact in the open field.

He has the arm, he has the superior athleticism, he always has his eyes down the field looking for the open man to make a play and doesn't shrink under pressure, he's starting to go through progressions and has expanded his responsibilities of reading a defense, he has one of the best instinctive reaction times to reading the middle linebacker I've ever seen. The flaws in his game in terms of his mechanics have been greatly fixed from last season, and the only problems he has left can either be fixed immediately or don't need to be fixed at all...etc.

I literally don't see a legitimate claim for what makes people think he's a 3rd-4th round pick other than the fact he's about an inch and a half undersized and made up character issues by the media. A lot of NFL scouts now even have him going in the first round (although I hope, if we don't get Bridgewater, teams like the Vikings, Cardinals, and Browns are stupid enough to pass up on him).

Tugboat wrote:
For the most part, i'm pretty much in the same camp as the bolded. I'm not sure i have the patience to go putzing around with developing an 'average at best' starter.

Dalton is pretty much the 'poster child' for that 2nd round QB 'success story'. And yet even there, while he's having a pretty respectable level of success as an NFL QB with tremendous weapons around him...There's still that nagging uncertainty. Can the Bengals really win it all with Dalton at the helm? And Dalton is far from the only 'mid-tier' sort of QB where those questions swirl around.


Call it greedy, i don't care. This Jaguars team has never had an elite QB, and i want one. It's only fair. Twisted Evil Twisted Evil Twisted Evil

But what potential "elite" QBs do you see in this draft past Bridgewater? The only three I see that have the potential x-factor to develop into elite QBs are Manziel, Mariota, and Carr. Yes, Manziel and Carr are not sure things like Bridgewater, but they're the only talents that show the tools to develop into elite potential. And with Mariota you're still taking a QB that's going to need 1-2 yeasr to develop into an NFL QB...and still might not be able to.
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Adrenaline_Flux


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 1:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

We can agree to disagree with the on-field evaluation of Manziel and Mariota. I think we agree that both prospect have a lot of natural talent - just a difference in opinion on where they are at right now.

However, I will say this, they aren't made up character concerns. I'm not necessarily sure it's his character so I'll conservatively say that he has maturity concerns and those are certainly not made up.
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Vino


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 1:18 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
We can agree to disagree with the on-field evaluation of Manziel and Mariota. I think we agree that both prospect have a lot of natural talent - just a difference in opinion on where they are at right now.

However, I will say this, they aren't made up character concerns. I'm not necessarily sure it's his character so I'll conservatively say that he has maturity concerns and those are certainly not made up.

From what I've seen he's just a guy who likes to have a good time and is really intense in his competitiveness. What's the worse he's done that we all haven't? No one is a saint. He's a 20 year old kid with the entire world watching his every move. I'm just turning 20 next week and I can't imagine how much [inappropriate/removed] I'd be into if the entire sport media world, twitter, and TMZ were all looking for something to expose me on for publicity.

But yes I agree Mariota has a lot of potential. Just don't think we should draft him since he'll have to sit. Liek you said I obviously think Johnny is further along.
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