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MNF Week 10: New England Patriots @ Carolina Panthers
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Avicii


Joined: 18 Jan 2013
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 2:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

*3rd down

not 3rd and 10
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ChazStandard


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 3:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

My theory on the 2nd-10 runs is that they are hold-over from Vereen/Woodhead being around. Going four wide on 2nd and 10, and then running a draw with a shifty back against a sub-defense is good strategy.

Running Blount for a yard is not.
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 3:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Avicii wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
Grizzly224 wrote:
The Third Rider wrote:
What are the odds that we come out of a no huddle 4 WR spread with gronk in there kind of like we did with Minnesota in 06? Their front 7 is stout so we might be better off getting them into a nickle and dime formation. That way we will have their secondary and pass rush try to beat us rather then the strength of their unit. Throw a few screen passes and draw plays to keep them honest.


We don't do that much sub packages. You will see rotations at the DT positions and a little bit with the DEs but as far as subbing out LBs for CBs it only occurs when the WILL (Klein or Blackburn) goes out and FLorence comes in. Luke and Davis are very good cover LBs and usually stay on the field even in 4 WR sets.

The up tempo O has a chance to work but only if you have early success with it. It could backfire if you end up with a 3 and out quickly. The key for the Panthers is to control the ball on O and get off the field on D (likje it is with most teams). When a team goes up tempo against us and the team makes the stop it just plays into what they want to do.


A 3 and out is a 3 and out. It's not going to make much difference whether it's from a no huddle sequence or not.

The Pats are going to need to control the clock as much as possible. I'm not especially optimistic about that given the play call selection McDaniels uses (his endless 2nd and long runs should be bottled up fairly well by Carolina, resulting in numerous 3rd and 5+).


Don't you think McDaniels has advanced statistics which support his love for 2nd and 10 runs? Assuming that the defense will play a little softer on 2nd and 10, if the Pats can get 4-5 yards on that carry, maybe it is a higher percentage play than passing on 2nd and 10 and then deciding what to do on 3rd and 10.


I think any such statistic has no useful predictive application. Unlike baseball, football is almost impossible to quantify in stats.

So no, I don't think he does. And any stats he may have are - as stated - useless for what should be fairly obvious reasons.
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Dalton


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 7:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is Carolina the favorite coming into this one? I see a lot of people picking them.
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Tzimisce


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 7:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dalton wrote:
Is Carolina the favorite coming into this one? I see a lot of people picking them.
Yup. -1.5

Should be -3, though.
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boondock


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 14, 2013 10:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dalton wrote:
Is Carolina the favorite coming into this one? I see a lot of people picking them.


I don't see how. We usually stink it up on prime time games regardless of how hot or good we are coming in.
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Dalton


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 15, 2013 12:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

How about injuries for the Pats? I know Wilfork, Mayo, and Kelly are done for the year, but what about Talib, Gregory, and Ninkovitch? Are they coming back this week?
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PoWww


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 16, 2013 3:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dennard is out with a "small" knee injury. Just saw it on twitter.

Really hope Talib plays. Man, this team just can't get healthy.
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Donut


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 16, 2013 3:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dalton wrote:
How about injuries for the Pats? I know Wilfork, Mayo, and Kelly are done for the year, but what about Talib, Gregory, and Ninkovitch? Are they coming back this week?

From what it sounds like Talib should be back. Gregory hasn't practiced all week. and Ninkovich I didnt know was a question mark. He was doing passrushing moves w/ Kline on sidelines during Pitt and it seemed like it was close at all he'd would've played.
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NinjaZX6R


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 16, 2013 4:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://blog.masslive.com/patriots/2013/11/source_alfonzo_dennard_not_exp.html

Hope he is back by next week.
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Tzimisce


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 16, 2013 4:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dennard and Gregory officially ruled out.
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Dalton


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 16, 2013 4:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tzimisce wrote:
Dennard and Gregory officially ruled out.


If Talib is not back... Brick wall Brick wall Brick wall
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NextBigThing


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 16, 2013 6:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Fonz Crying or Very sad
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goldfishwars


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 16, 2013 6:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NextBigThing wrote:
Fonz Crying or Very sad


Yeah, not good. Hopefully we'll see Logan Ryan across from Talib and not Arrington on the perimeter.
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Tzimisce


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 16, 2013 6:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Talib is gonna play. I have little doubt of that. I still wonder whether it's worth putting him on Smith when Smith isn't nearly as fast or quick as he used to be. I'd much rather Talib give Olsen the Jimmy Graham treatment.
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