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Estonianzulu


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 11:38 am    Post subject: EZ's Honest QB Reviews Reply with quote

Two years ago I was accused of some blind hatering of one Brandon Weeden. I was pretty staunchly opposed to the player and the potential of drafting him. So, to ease my guilty conscience I reviewed Weeden with an eye for overcoming my own bias towards him.

I came away with some positives, and some negatives and what I felt was a pretty fair assessment of Brandon Weeden the prospect. I've made my personal opinions known this year about guys like Manziel, McCarron and Mettenberger. But upon review of my own bias I realized I was not giving them a fair shake. Therefore I decided to sit down and watch every throw of theirs I could from 2013 and give an as-impartial as possible review of the QB's in this year's potential draft class.

I watched the cutups of each player in every game I could from 2013 in an attempt to review their mechanics (as best I can, im no expert), their accuracy, arm strength, technique and habits. As such I feel I have a fair view of where some of these QB's stand as of this moment.

Feel free to disagree with my take, two people can watch the same play and see different things. But don't accuse me of hater-ness because what follows is what I see, not what I feel. So far I've done 3 QB's: the three mentioned above. and I'll continue reviewing them as I go.

The Quarterbacks
- Johnny Manziel, TA&M
- AJ McCarron, Alabama*
- Zach Mettenberger, LSU
- Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville
- Derek Carr, Fresno State
- Tahj Boyd, Clemson
- Aaron Murray, UGA
- Blake Bortles, UCF
- Stephen Morris, Miami
- David Fales, San Jose State
- Jimmy Garoppolo, Eastern Illinois
- Jeff Mathews, Cornell
- Brett Smith, Wyoming
- Bryn Renner, UNC
- Keith Price, UW
- Keith Wenning, Ball State
- Logan Thomas, VT
- Casey Pachall, TCU


2015 Draft QB's
- Marcus Mariota
- Bryce Petty
- Brett Hundley
- Braxton Miller, OSU

* indicates that I need to watch more games before casting a final judgement


Last edited by Estonianzulu on Thu Feb 27, 2014 4:50 pm; edited 17 times in total
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Estonianzulu


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 11:38 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Johnny Manziel:



The Stats
Age at Draft: 21
Height: 6'1"
Weight: 210 lbs

My Bias: I do not like Manziel off the field, Iíll admit. And Iím very hesitant of any player who gets the Tebow treatment: IE- defenders accuse people who criticize him of ďhatingĒ. Going into the review I saw him as a gimmicky QB who throws only to wide open receivers.

The Review:
(Games Watched: Rice, Alabama, Arkansas, Ole Miss)


Positives

+ Has elite mobility. Itís like watching Michael Vick in his prime back there, has speed, escape-ability* and elite agility to shift and move around like a top end offensive skill position player.

+ Keeps his eyes down field. One thing Vick couldnít do was regularly look down field while scrambling, Manziel does an excellent job in scrambling to give his receivers space to get open and find them when they do.

+ Very Quick release- when he throws, especially on quick routes or 1-read plays, he can get rid of the ball super fast. This helps prevent batted passes despite his stature

+ When he takes the time to try, his passes have pretty good zip on intermediate and short routes.

+ Good ball placement- can drop passes into his receiverís hip pockets with regularity, and can throw around a cornerback to get his receiver a chance at the ball. This occurs even on his weaker deep ball passes

+ Uses release points and arm angles to avoid batted passes and defensive linemen in coverage plays

+ Doesnít fumble on scrambles- surprisingly I saw zero fumbles despite one of his negatives. Has huge hands, so that helps.


Negatives

- Deep passes hang on him. He has arm strength to put good zip on short and intermediate routes. But his deep passes hang on him or rainbow at times.

-Doesnít step up to escape blindside pressure. Often plays Madden- runs backwards until he can chuck it deeper than he needs to rather than rolling from pressure or stepping up while still trying to pass.

- Overthrows or throws high a little too often, especially when scrambling. He lets his receivers highpoint the ball, which is good, but often does so at the expense of potential YAC- or leaves his receivers open for big hits.

- Occasionally pulls a Weeden- ie tosses a lame duck pass while under pressure either to throw the ball away or to a RB. Did it twice in two games, once it was incomplete the other time it was a Pick.

- Appears to get frustrated with good coverage. When he wants to throw, heís going to throw. There were times when he would force the ball into coverage rather than trying to run and it led to picks because he doesnít have the arm strength to force the ball into tiny windows

- Occasionally feels phantom pressure and gets happy feet.

- Runs with the ball far away from his body- so far hasnít come back to bite him


~~

Summary:

I expected what I believed to be true was true. In some ways I was right. He does run a lot, he does play Madden occasionally and he does throw ducks into bad coverage. But he also does things pretty well. Heís got very good zip on short and intermediate passes. He can work around a defense very well, and he can make plays on the run or with some pressure that other QBís can not. His decision making though can at times be pretty dreadful, throwing into tight coverage without a strong arm is a recipe for disaster. But he has touch and better-than-expected accuracy.

Who does he remind me of?



Tony Romo with Michael Vickís speed. Romo doesnít have a rocket, and he does sometimes Tony Romo it, but he has good mobility, can throw on the run, has good enough strength and above average ball placement and accuracy. Both are on the shorter end (With Manziel being even shorter, but five times faster) but can make up for it with their ability to throw around defenders.

NFL Draft projections

Mockers
All over the place- anywhere from top 3 to top 100

EZ's Big Board
2nd-3rd rounder based upon interviews- Another QB who will need time to develop the NFL game, plus he has some character concerns.


Last edited by Estonianzulu on Fri Nov 15, 2013 10:02 am; edited 1 time in total
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buno67


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 11:57 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think if you look at his strengths those are the things the browns need most in a QB
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Estonianzulu


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

AJ McCarron



Stats
Age: 23
Height: 6'4"
Weight: 214 lbs

My Bias:

Going in I thought McCarron was a game manager with an elite team around him but no real tools to separate him from the pack.

The Review:
(Games Watched: VT, Texas A&M- need more to be posted before this is final)


Positives

+ Steps up into the pocket and drops the ball right where only the receivers can get it. Great ball placement when he plays fundamentally sound Quarterbacking

+ Scans the defense well, looks off initial reads and dissects coverage

+ Surprisingly good pocket mobility. Heís not Manziel, but heís also not Brandon Weeden

+ When he sets his feet (with or without pressure) makes NFL level passes with regularly. Can put the ball on pinpoint accuracy at any level of the field and can make all the throws you need him to with reliability.

+Doesnít throw a lot of ďdumbĒ passes. Very clean game, not a lot of serious mistakes.


Negatives

- Throws high just a little too often. Itís a minor quibble but one which could develop into a bad habit. This is doubly true when he doesnít set his feet

- Sometimes holds the ball just a little too long. He has mobility so he can avoid pressure, but it puts him at risk to take unnecessary passes.

- Has absolutely atrocious mechanics and accuracy when he tries quick passes. If he fails to set his feet, his passes are wobbly, high and inaccurate. Unlike Manziel, he can not run the no-read or 1-read style plays where the ball is out in an instant. Throwing on the run is not his strength at all and he often throws falling away when backpedaling.

Summary

McCarron is a little tricker to review. He doesnít throw as often, but calling him a game manager would be inappropriate. He makes quality throws when he sets his feet, but man when he doesnít his passes are terrible. He has to rely on good mechanics in order to overcome physical limitations. And when he uses those mechanics, he can overcome them. When he fails to use those mechanics its not good at all. Doesnít have a rocket, but doesnít need one. The type of player who in his rookie season will not turn a bad team good, but will also not turn a good team bad. Could develop into a Tom Brady, or a Brady Quinn.

Who He Reminds me of:



A higher ceiling Trent Green. Its not an insult to be compared to a guy who led the Chiefs to relevance and would have had some playoff success had it not been for Peyton Manning. Green, like McCarron could make all the throws, had great accuracy when he wasnít trying to be too quick with his passes and had adequate but unexciting arm strength.

Draft Projections

Mockers
2nd-3rd rounder

EZ's Big Board
2nd Rounder- Not a sure thing, not a top tier physical talent. His grade will depend on private workouts.


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sdrawkcab321


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Good write up. I'm genuinely looking forward to me. As for manziel the one criticism you have about him throwing to open receivers I don't completely agree with you. I think by moving around in and out of the pocket that he helps his receivers get open. I really like him and wouldn't hate if we got him. His off field issues are extremely over rated. I think most college players do the things that he does. He just has such a microscope on him.
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Estonianzulu


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sdrawkcab321 wrote:
Good write up. I'm genuinely looking forward to me. As for manziel the one criticism you have about him throwing to open receivers I don't completely agree with you. I think by moving around in and out of the pocket that he helps his receivers get open. I really like him and wouldn't hate if we got him. His off field issues are extremely over rated. I think most college players do the things that he does. He just has such a microscope on him.


The open receivers line was my pre-review bias. You'll notice that didn't show up as a negative.

buno67 wrote:
I think if you look at his strengths those are the things the browns need most in a QB


Potentially. But his negatives are things we've ragged on Weeden about as well.
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sdrawkcab321


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Estonianzulu wrote:
sdrawkcab321 wrote:
Good write up. I'm genuinely looking forward to me. As for manziel the one criticism you have about him throwing to open receivers I don't completely agree with you. I think by moving around in and out of the pocket that he helps his receivers get open. I really like him and wouldn't hate if we got him. His off field issues are extremely over rated. I think most college players do the things that he does. He just has such a microscope on him.


The open receivers line was my pre-review bias. You'll notice that didn't show up as a negative.

buno67 wrote:
I think if you look at his strengths those are the things the browns need most in a QB


Potentially. But his negatives are things we've ragged on Weeden about as well.


Your right sorry about that. I agree with everything about AJ. I wouldn't touch him till the 3rd. We just had a QB here who couldn't make quick throws.
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Estonianzulu


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sdrawkcab321 wrote:

Your right sorry about that. I agree with everything about AJ. I wouldn't touch him till the 3rd. We just had a QB here who couldn't make quick throws.


Its really weird, he can make quick throws. He just doesn't do it if he doesn't set his feet. Its not like he doesn't have the strength to put zip and get the ball there quick, he does. He just gets sloppy.
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nugpimpen


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I love the thought of this thread and how it has started.


Good write ups so far.


McCarron is such a wild card to me.

I think he has the talent and the brain too succeed.
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Dropkick_pride


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:28 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I like it. Keep going. Wink
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Estonianzulu


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 12:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Zach Mettenberger



Stats
Age: 22
Height: 6'5"
Weight: 230 lbs

My Bias: I thought Mettenberger was Derek Anderson on the field and Ben Roethlisberger off the field

The Review
(Games watched: UAB, Miss State, Florida, TCU, Kent State, Auburn, UGA)

Positives

+ A rocket. No, a howitzer. The dude has a cannon for an arm and its clear to see any time he throws the ball.

+ Good ball placement and window-fitting. Has the arm that can make every throw and do so in tight coverage. Made more than one play that would have been a pick with a weaker throw.

+ Doesnít seem rattled by pressure. Still makes elite level throws while taking hits or with guys around his feet. Able to step up into the pocket to avoid outside pressure.

+ Very quick release. Combined with a strong arm it makes his passes go straight, fast and hard. Very difficult to make a play on them for defenders.

+ Unstoppable slant passes. Everytime he throws a slant itís a completion for the receiver to make a play on the ball and run after the catch- lots of YAC.

Negatives

- Struggles with touch. A common problem with strong armed QBís in college.

- Overthrows, or throws high, on nearly every pass. He lets his receivers highpoint the ball, but often to the detriment of the play. Had plenty of plays that would have been for better gains but the receiver had to adjust to the ball up high.

- Gets really lucky with DPI- Iíve never seen a guy get bailed out so often on defensive pass interference plays that should have been incompletions.

- Has runs where he ignores the Tight End or running back and locks into throwing deep to receivers. Misses wide open TEís sometimes to try and force the ball to his elite receiver weapons

- Suffers from sloppy mechanics at times that leads to bad passes, especially on the quick throws under passes to running backs underneath

Summary

Ignoring for a moment his off-field issues, I came away impressed with Mettenberger. Heís got a disgustingly good arm and quick release that makes it very hard to defend against him. But the high passes and the refusal to check down really worry me. Heís playing with two WRís who will be top 50 picks, and one who could very well be a first rounder, and may be top 10 if he comes out next season (Odell Beckham Jr). This masks his deficiencies because Landry and Beckham just make plays happen.

Comparison



Matt Stafford with character concerns: Has the rocket, surrounded by great talent. Heíd probably be fighting for #1 overall if he didnít have the character concerns and had more successful past performances. Not as accurate as Stafford, but just as strong armed and just as potentially amazing.

Draft Prospects

Mockers
1st-2nd Rounder

EZ Big Board
2nd-3rd rounder- Too many questions about his ability to keep his arm in check, and character concerns drop him.


Last edited by Estonianzulu on Fri Nov 15, 2013 10:20 am; edited 1 time in total
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Dropkick_pride


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 1:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Stafford? Really? Wow... Definitely a lot higher on Mettenberger than I am. Confused


I am higher on McCarron personally, and about the same with Manziel.
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Dawgpoun8017


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 1:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Awesome thread EZ, keep em coming

Your move Reggie Cool
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candyman93


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 3:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Nice thread and I like some of the comparisons. I'm glad you weren't lazy and compared Mettenberger to Flacco.

However, Zach is going to need some talent around him. He'd work in Cleveland because of Gordon and Cameron. Plus we can also draft another 1st round WR.
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Reginaldm9


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PostPosted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 3:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Pretty favorable comparisons. Your analysis is spot on though. I'd be interested in seeing what you believe each prospects' floor is, assuming the comparisons are their ceilings.
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