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The Race to #1 --- Now the Draft Position Thread
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.Buzz


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2013 9:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
.Buzz wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Clowney and QB in round 2


What QB though? I could see Manziel getting overdrafted because teams need a QB. Stephan Morris? David Fales?

Not really sure they'd be good value with a guy like Gabe Jackson possibly sitting there. I'd honestly love to have Clowney or Barr on this team, I know we need a QB but if one isn't there both of those guys should be build around guys on defenses. I just don't know how we'd draft one in the 2nd unless some guys build their stock up from now til than. I haven't seen a ton of guys outside of Teddy/Bortles/Manziel/Hundley/Carr, but I haven't heard good things.


I don't think Morris goes too highly now.

I think there's a plethora of QBs that will be available in round 2, and even 3 but I don't see them waiting that long.


There should be plenty of guys available in round 2 I agree, but who? Who would be good value in that round that also has a chance to develop into "the guy" for us? That is my worry.
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jagman777


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Morris stanks. I'm not as high on the other QBs in this draft. Manziel will make some ridiculous Russel Wilson type scramble plays, but that's about all he's gonna be good for. The other three M's of the SEC(Murray, Mettenberger, and McCarron) all don't impress me at all.
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Its A Sabotage


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2013 10:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

.Buzz wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
.Buzz wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Clowney and QB in round 2


What QB though? I could see Manziel getting overdrafted because teams need a QB. Stephan Morris? David Fales?

Not really sure they'd be good value with a guy like Gabe Jackson possibly sitting there. I'd honestly love to have Clowney or Barr on this team, I know we need a QB but if one isn't there both of those guys should be build around guys on defenses. I just don't know how we'd draft one in the 2nd unless some guys build their stock up from now til than. I haven't seen a ton of guys outside of Teddy/Bortles/Manziel/Hundley/Carr, but I haven't heard good things.


I don't think Morris goes too highly now.

I think there's a plethora of QBs that will be available in round 2, and even 3 but I don't see them waiting that long.


There should be plenty of guys available in round 2 I agree, but who? Who would be good value in that round that also has a chance to develop into "the guy" for us? That is my worry.


Round 2 is McCarron, Garappolo, Bortles, Fales range.
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AngryPirate


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 6:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

How many of you would feel good if we came out of the draft getting clowney and trading our second round pick for mallet. IMO he is better then any qb we could get in the second round and I believe he is in the final year of his deal next season, so the pats should definitely be looking to move him.
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Adrenaline_Flux


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 6:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just don't get trading a 2nd for a backup who hasn't really played.
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AngryPirate


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 7:42 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
I just don't get trading a 2nd for a backup who hasn't really played.


The upsides I see is he has sat on the bench for 3 seasons like quarterbacks used to do and watched Brady do his thing. He would be a flyer just like any other qb in the second round, and he is NFL game ready. Even if he flops Caldwell wouldn't be tied to him like if we took a qb in the first round this year. Obviously nobody besides the patriots would know what we are truly getting. If we draft a qb in the second round we pretty much have to bring henne or gabbert back. It seems that the biggest down fall to mallet was off the field stuff and that seems to not be an issue anymore unless they are covering it up. I just want a new qb who has a realistic shot at starting next year and I will be fine with who ever that is.
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Vino


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 11:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

iPwn wrote:
Vino wrote:
iPwn wrote:
Ball placement,

Carr does that well and it's not a big enough gap to discern a sizable advantage between the two.
Yes it is. Bridgewater' ball placement is elite. Bridgewater's ball placement at the college level is some of the best ball placement any prospect has ever had. And that's not an overstatement. You won't find 5 guys with better ball placement come out in the last decade. Carr's is not on that level. At all.
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leading receivers,

See above.
Ditto.

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anticipation,

Not even a fair or possible comparison because the system Carr plays in this year asks for him to get the ball out quickly.
I'm going to assume you don't know what anticipation is because getting the ball out quickly fundamentally requires anticipation. To get the ball out quickly, you have to have an understanding of where the defense is, where your receiver is, where the receiver is going to be and where the defender is going to be. Carr's is not on the level of Bridgewater and he's closer to a see it then throw it player, which fundamentally takes longer to "get the ball out." That's not to say that his anticipation is all that bad, but that it's not on the level of Teddy, who again is far far ahead of where most anyone coming out of college has been.

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pocket presence,

Carr has improved greatly with that this year and Bridgewater's pocket presence isn't elite or anything in the first place.
And he's still not very good. He's not as skiddish, but he gets happy feet and is erratic. Throw on the SDSU game this year and watch it. That's one of the better examples I have off the top of my head. He was awful any time they had pressure on him. And it's a recurring thing.

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going through progressions,

Read third comment. Carr goes through progressions well especially considering he's asked to get the ball out more quickly than Bridgewater is. And when he was playing in a prostyle offense his first two years he was very good at going through his progressions.
Excuses.

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miles ahead on 3rd down,

This I will give you, but Carr makes up for it on his 4th Down conversions which he completes 81% of. Bridgewater being better on 3rd Down could also just be a reflection of the system, just like Carr being miles ahead of Bridgewater on 1st Down could be a reflection of the system.
Except Carr isn't even better on 1st downs. Statistically, sure. But that's entirely a product of him getting 1st down TD passes in the red zone that Teddy isn't given the opportunity for, and first down passes in general. Carr has over 150 more red zone passes than Teddy and over twice as many 1st down passes all together. Their efficiency rate on 1st down is a lot closer than "miles ahead" if you ignore the inflation of stats that passing in the red zone gives. It's solely an opportunity thing. Carr's low conversion rate on 3rd down (comparatively across same distance opportunities) are lower than Teddy's. That has nothing to do with the system and has everything to do with Teddy finding his receivers for first downs when Carr isn't.

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better under pressure. And we can go on.

Carr is very calm and composed under pressure this season.
http://draftbreakdown.com/video/derek-carr-vs-san-diego-state-2013/
Well regardless of what you think of Carr, I guess it could be a moot point altogether since it's a good chance we'll end up at like 6-8 position in the draft and Carr may not be there if another desperate team takes him before us...and Cleveland will definitely take him if they're ahead of us.

So imo it's looking less and less likely we address our QB situation this season...again. Which in the long run may not be a bad thing, since it gives us time to build up the team more before putting the QB in the situation on our team. Maybe if a team that doesn't need a QB gets the number 1 or 2 pick next year we'll trade up to finally get our guy. And yes, it does matter to draft in the top 3 or w/e that year as far as QBs are concerned looking at who is likely coming out (Jameis, Mariota, Hundley). I'm almost certain Caldwell and Gus would love to have Jameis as their QB, looking at his attitude it matches what Gus preaches perfectly.
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.Buzz


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 2:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Its A Sabotage wrote:
.Buzz wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
.Buzz wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Clowney and QB in round 2


What QB though? I could see Manziel getting overdrafted because teams need a QB. Stephan Morris? David Fales?

Not really sure they'd be good value with a guy like Gabe Jackson possibly sitting there. I'd honestly love to have Clowney or Barr on this team, I know we need a QB but if one isn't there both of those guys should be build around guys on defenses. I just don't know how we'd draft one in the 2nd unless some guys build their stock up from now til than. I haven't seen a ton of guys outside of Teddy/Bortles/Manziel/Hundley/Carr, but I haven't heard good things.


I don't think Morris goes too highly now.

I think there's a plethora of QBs that will be available in round 2, and even 3 but I don't see them waiting that long.


There should be plenty of guys available in round 2 I agree, but who? Who would be good value in that round that also has a chance to develop into "the guy" for us? That is my worry.


Round 2 is McCarron, Garappolo, Bortles, Fales range.


If Bortles declares I see him going much higher, sounds like McCarron could too. Don't know much about Garappolo, but do you think him or Fales are guys that can lead our team for the next 10-12 years? That's kind of what I want if we take a QB high, too much talent that could be core pieces in the 2nd/3rd round.
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.Buzz


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 2:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vino wrote:
iPwn wrote:
Vino wrote:
iPwn wrote:
Ball placement,

Carr does that well and it's not a big enough gap to discern a sizable advantage between the two.
Yes it is. Bridgewater' ball placement is elite. Bridgewater's ball placement at the college level is some of the best ball placement any prospect has ever had. And that's not an overstatement. You won't find 5 guys with better ball placement come out in the last decade. Carr's is not on that level. At all.
Quote:
Quote:
leading receivers,

See above.
Ditto.

Quote:
Quote:
anticipation,

Not even a fair or possible comparison because the system Carr plays in this year asks for him to get the ball out quickly.
I'm going to assume you don't know what anticipation is because getting the ball out quickly fundamentally requires anticipation. To get the ball out quickly, you have to have an understanding of where the defense is, where your receiver is, where the receiver is going to be and where the defender is going to be. Carr's is not on the level of Bridgewater and he's closer to a see it then throw it player, which fundamentally takes longer to "get the ball out." That's not to say that his anticipation is all that bad, but that it's not on the level of Teddy, who again is far far ahead of where most anyone coming out of college has been.

Quote:
Quote:
pocket presence,

Carr has improved greatly with that this year and Bridgewater's pocket presence isn't elite or anything in the first place.
And he's still not very good. He's not as skiddish, but he gets happy feet and is erratic. Throw on the SDSU game this year and watch it. That's one of the better examples I have off the top of my head. He was awful any time they had pressure on him. And it's a recurring thing.

Quote:
Quote:
going through progressions,

Read third comment. Carr goes through progressions well especially considering he's asked to get the ball out more quickly than Bridgewater is. And when he was playing in a prostyle offense his first two years he was very good at going through his progressions.
Excuses.

Quote:
Quote:
miles ahead on 3rd down,

This I will give you, but Carr makes up for it on his 4th Down conversions which he completes 81% of. Bridgewater being better on 3rd Down could also just be a reflection of the system, just like Carr being miles ahead of Bridgewater on 1st Down could be a reflection of the system.
Except Carr isn't even better on 1st downs. Statistically, sure. But that's entirely a product of him getting 1st down TD passes in the red zone that Teddy isn't given the opportunity for, and first down passes in general. Carr has over 150 more red zone passes than Teddy and over twice as many 1st down passes all together. Their efficiency rate on 1st down is a lot closer than "miles ahead" if you ignore the inflation of stats that passing in the red zone gives. It's solely an opportunity thing. Carr's low conversion rate on 3rd down (comparatively across same distance opportunities) are lower than Teddy's. That has nothing to do with the system and has everything to do with Teddy finding his receivers for first downs when Carr isn't.

Quote:
Quote:
better under pressure. And we can go on.

Carr is very calm and composed under pressure this season.
http://draftbreakdown.com/video/derek-carr-vs-san-diego-state-2013/
Well regardless of what you think of Carr, I guess it could be a moot point altogether since it's a good chance we'll end up at like 6-8 position in the draft and Carr may not be there if another desperate team takes him before us...and Cleveland will definitely take him if they're ahead of us.

So imo it's looking less and less likely we address our QB situation this season...again. Which in the long run may not be a bad thing, since it gives us time to build up the team more before putting the QB in the situation on our team. Maybe if a team that doesn't need a QB gets the number 1 or 2 pick next year we'll trade up to finally get our guy. And yes, it does matter to draft in the top 3 or w/e that year as far as QBs are concerned looking at who is likely coming out (Jameis, Mariota, Hundley). I'm almost certain Caldwell and Gus would love to have Jameis as their QB, looking at his attitude it matches what Gus preaches perfectly.


I don't know how it's likely we pick in the 6-8 range considering we're 2nd overall right now and if we lose tonight (which like I've said, i'm perfectly happy winning games, not going to be pissed if we lose though) we'll be 1st overall. Bills are tough (but winnable), Titans are a divisional team and are decent (but winnable obviously), and the Colts still have a good QB, which we haven't won a game against a good QB yet (though they are on a downward spiral). Way to hard to say anything is likely right now.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 3:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I find it hard to imagine we lose tonight. Thursday night game and we haven't won at home in a year. The boys will be hype and Houston is complete garbage now. I'll be really surprised if we lose.

I can't see us losing to the Bills either. They're really bad too right now and we'll be on a roll. The only games I see us losing are to the Titans (which is still winnable) and the Colts if they aren't resting starters. So I basically see our record as being at least 5-11 and there are a lot of teams that look to be on the verge of losing out for the rest of the season.

I know it's hard to imagine but it's really looking like there is a scenario where we won't be addressing our QB situation this year, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. Build up the defense some more so when we do get a QB he won't be coming to a bad situation. That said, even though it's hard to believe, our offense could really be even worse next year if Marcedes and MJD leave.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 5:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vino wrote:
.
I know it's hard to imagine but it's really looking like there is a scenario where we won't be addressing our QB situation this year, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. Build up the defense some more so when we do get a QB he won't be coming to a bad situation. That said, even though it's hard to believe, our offense could really be even worse next year if Marcedes and MJD leave.

No, there isn't a scenario where we aren't addressing our QB situation.
We will definitely be addressing it in some way.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 5:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Houston is so completely garbage that they nearly beat arguably the best team in the AFC last week. They've lost 10 in a row, but the last 6 have all been 1 score losses, and it just so happens that those are the 6 games that Keenum has started.

They're margin of loss for those 6 games, which include 3 games against potential playoff teams is 22 points, or 3.66 per game. Conversely, our average loss during our 8 loss streak was 22 per game.

The Texans are a team that's caught a lot of bad breaks and should be a 4-5 win team right now, whereas we've caught a lot of lucky breaks. That could continue, but that's more to do with the luck of the bounce and things like that than Houston being awful right now and we being better.
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.Buzz


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 5:46 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jaguarfan wrote:
Vino wrote:
.
I know it's hard to imagine but it's really looking like there is a scenario where we won't be addressing our QB situation this year, which isn't necessarily a bad thing. Build up the defense some more so when we do get a QB he won't be coming to a bad situation. That said, even though it's hard to believe, our offense could really be even worse next year if Marcedes and MJD leave.

No, there isn't a scenario where we aren't addressing our QB situation.
We will definitely be addressing it in some way.


Yeah, I just don't know what we'll do. I really think we'll either trade up from our pick in the 1st to nab Carr/Bortles (yes, I think Bortles goes a lot higher than what's been said in here), or we trade up from our 2nd rd to get a guy in the late 1st range. Everything hinges on tonight though, because Texans could get some momentum if they win, a lot of their losses were very close and they barely got beat by NE.
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 6:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Aaron Rodgers is "unlikely to play" this week. Chalk up a win for Atlanta. Very Happy
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PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 6:34 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

And to be clear, that Bridgewater vs Carr stuff, most of that (aside from his pocket issues) isn't a knock on Carr so much as it's a testament to just how incredible of a prospect that Teddy is. If you remove my concerns over the pocket presence and how he performs under pressure, Carr is a great prospect in my eyes. He has work to be done, but he's got the pieces there to develop into a great QB. My biggest concern is how he folds under pressure and I think that could definitely hold him back and after seeing Gabbert in the pocket, I'm a little more hesitant to trust in a guy who doesn't handle pressure well. The rest of the stuff though, that's just Teddy being more developed than basically anybody you'll see when they come out of college. Teddy's development on a lot of those things isn't that of a college QB, they're typical of a 3-4 year vet who just had it finally click at the NFL level.
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