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The Race to #1 --- Now the Draft Position Thread
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corry


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 03, 2013 10:26 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adrenaline_Flux wrote:

I'm a lot more confident in Bortles than I ever was with Geno


http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=519213
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Adrenaline_Flux


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 03, 2013 3:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

corry wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:

I'm a lot more confident in Bortles than I ever was with Geno


http://www.footballsfuture.com/phpBB2/viewtopic.php?t=519213


I didn't want him
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sadjag


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 03, 2013 3:23 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

DuvalsKing wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Tugboat wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
#3, #5, #17, 2nd round, 3rd round, doooon't care. BORTLES PLS.


I just can't get on your level.

I'd take Bortles way before i'd ever take Geno Smith.

But...yeah. still...


I'm a lot more confident in Bortles than I ever was with Geno

I remember fans on this page were like take Geno with the number 2 pick last year and I was about to pull my damn hair out.
Yeah I have too admit I liked Geno, I just can't help but think that the draft really messed with his head, ruined his confidence. I haven't watched any jets games so I don't really know what his problems are.
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Tugboat


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PostPosted: Tue Dec 03, 2013 5:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So it looks like Mariota is officially off the table now, returning to school next year. One less QB in the mix probably doesn't do us any favours, even if he's not a guy we would've taken. Smaller supply of guys out there, for the same number of teams needing QBs.
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Vino


Joined: 27 Oct 2013
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PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

iPwn wrote:
Ball placement,

Carr does that well and it's not a big enough gap to discern a sizable advantage between the two.
Quote:
leading receivers,

See above.
Quote:
anticipation,

Not even a fair or possible comparison because the system Carr plays in this year asks for him to get the ball out quickly.
Quote:
pocket presence,

Carr has improved greatly with that this year and Bridgewater's pocket presence isn't elite or anything in the first place.
Quote:
going through progressions,

Read third comment. Carr goes through progressions well especially considering he's asked to get the ball out more quickly than Bridgewater is. And when he was playing in a prostyle offense his first two years he was very good at going through his progressions.
Quote:
footwork, consistency in throwing mechanics,

Yes Carr needs to work on his footwork but that is easily flexible and his arm is so strong he doesn't even need to step into most of his passes in the first place. As far as his actual throwing mechanics, i don't see him breakdown that much this year and whatever little things I do see aren't fatal or even note worthy flaws.
Quote:
miles ahead on 3rd down,

This I will give you, but Carr makes up for it on his 4th Down conversions which he completes 81% of. Bridgewater being better on 3rd Down could also just be a reflection of the system, just like Carr being miles ahead of Bridgewater on 1st Down could be a reflection of the system.
Quote:

better under pressure. And we can go on.

Carr is very calm and composed under pressure this season.
Quote:
Putting Carr on the same level as Teddy is either classic stock inflation or a case of trying to inflate your beliefs of a player because you think that’s the guy we’re going to take.
Nope disagree. I don't think you've even watched him a lot this season, a lot of your arguments against him just sound like old critiques from last season.
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Adrenaline_Flux


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just say that you don't like Bridgewater lol
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Vino


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:55 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

i would take Bridgewater over Carr at this point (could change after combine). All I'm saying is we're not losing as much as people are making out by getting Carr instead of Bridgewater.

Carr will surprise a lot of people in the NFL, regardless of which team he goes to. I hope it's us if we don't get Bridgewater.
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iPwn


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2013 2:11 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vino wrote:
iPwn wrote:
Ball placement,

Carr does that well and it's not a big enough gap to discern a sizable advantage between the two.
Yes it is. Bridgewater' ball placement is elite. Bridgewater's ball placement at the college level is some of the best ball placement any prospect has ever had. And that's not an overstatement. You won't find 5 guys with better ball placement come out in the last decade. Carr's is not on that level. At all.
Quote:
Quote:
leading receivers,

See above.
Ditto.

Quote:
Quote:
anticipation,

Not even a fair or possible comparison because the system Carr plays in this year asks for him to get the ball out quickly.
I'm going to assume you don't know what anticipation is because getting the ball out quickly fundamentally requires anticipation. To get the ball out quickly, you have to have an understanding of where the defense is, where your receiver is, where the receiver is going to be and where the defender is going to be. Carr's is not on the level of Bridgewater and he's closer to a see it then throw it player, which fundamentally takes longer to "get the ball out." That's not to say that his anticipation is all that bad, but that it's not on the level of Teddy, who again is far far ahead of where most anyone coming out of college has been.

Quote:
Quote:
pocket presence,

Carr has improved greatly with that this year and Bridgewater's pocket presence isn't elite or anything in the first place.
And he's still not very good. He's not as skiddish, but he gets happy feet and is erratic. Throw on the SDSU game this year and watch it. That's one of the better examples I have off the top of my head. He was awful any time they had pressure on him. And it's a recurring thing.

Quote:
Quote:
going through progressions,

Read third comment. Carr goes through progressions well especially considering he's asked to get the ball out more quickly than Bridgewater is. And when he was playing in a prostyle offense his first two years he was very good at going through his progressions.
Excuses.

Quote:
Quote:
miles ahead on 3rd down,

This I will give you, but Carr makes up for it on his 4th Down conversions which he completes 81% of. Bridgewater being better on 3rd Down could also just be a reflection of the system, just like Carr being miles ahead of Bridgewater on 1st Down could be a reflection of the system.
Except Carr isn't even better on 1st downs. Statistically, sure. But that's entirely a product of him getting 1st down TD passes in the red zone that Teddy isn't given the opportunity for, and first down passes in general. Carr has over 150 more red zone passes than Teddy and over twice as many 1st down passes all together. Their efficiency rate on 1st down is a lot closer than "miles ahead" if you ignore the inflation of stats that passing in the red zone gives. It's solely an opportunity thing. Carr's low conversion rate on 3rd down (comparatively across same distance opportunities) are lower than Teddy's. That has nothing to do with the system and has everything to do with Teddy finding his receivers for first downs when Carr isn't.

Quote:
Quote:
better under pressure. And we can go on.

Carr is very calm and composed under pressure this season.
http://draftbreakdown.com/video/derek-carr-vs-san-diego-state-2013/
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iPwn


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2013 1:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Here are his stats under pressure vs SDSU. I'm not counting screen passes where the play was designed to invite pressure to free up a player.

1st Quarter
0/7
1 pass interference

2nd Quarter
2/5
3rd and 7, 3 yard pass and the receiver gets the 1st after being tripped up before the marker. 7 yards
3rd and 5, 2 yard pass and the back is caught before the 1st down marker. 4 yards

Note: He threw 9 straight incompletions on pressure passes before completing his first.

3rd Quarter
0/2
1 pass interference

Note: His first “pressure pass” of the 3rd quarter I can’t even count because it was phantom pressure. 3rd and 16 with a 3 man rush.
The DE looks like he’s got edge pressure and Carr needs to step up.


He does so and then has a clean pocket


But instead of staying in the pocket, he rolls out


And throws a nice pass deep that’s incomplete

Now I’m not going to blame this on being “skiddish” or anything, but I just want it noted. Also note that I didn't count this pass against his attempt total.

4th Quarter
0/1

Note: that incompletion was a tipped pass

Overtime
0/0

That brings his game total to:
2/15 11 yards. That's a 19.49 NCAA QB Rating.

And this isn't the only game that it's been a problem.

He's not even close to the same level as Teddy under pressure.
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.Buzz


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2013 8:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I really don't see how we don't take a QB with our pick, but what if Bortles AND Hundley stay in school? Who would we take if both Bridgewater and Car are gone?
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Adrenaline_Flux


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2013 8:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Clowney and QB in round 2
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Its A Sabotage


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2013 8:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Clowney and QB in round 2


yep
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.Buzz


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2013 8:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Clowney and QB in round 2


What QB though? I could see Manziel getting overdrafted because teams need a QB. Stephan Morris? David Fales?

Not really sure they'd be good value with a guy like Gabe Jackson possibly sitting there. I'd honestly love to have Clowney or Barr on this team, I know we need a QB but if one isn't there both of those guys should be build around guys on defenses. I just don't know how we'd draft one in the 2nd unless some guys build their stock up from now til than. I haven't seen a ton of guys outside of Teddy/Bortles/Manziel/Hundley/Carr, but I haven't heard good things.
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Its A Sabotage


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2013 8:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

iPwn wrote:
Here are his stats under pressure vs SDSU. I'm not counting screen passes where the play was designed to invite pressure to free up a player.

1st Quarter
0/7
1 pass interference

2nd Quarter
2/5
3rd and 7, 3 yard pass and the receiver gets the 1st after being tripped up before the marker. 7 yards
3rd and 5, 2 yard pass and the back is caught before the 1st down marker. 4 yards

Note: He threw 9 straight incompletions on pressure passes before completing his first.

3rd Quarter
0/2
1 pass interference

Note: His first “pressure pass” of the 3rd quarter I can’t even count because it was phantom pressure. 3rd and 16 with a 3 man rush.
The DE looks like he’s got edge pressure and Carr needs to step up.


He does so and then has a clean pocket


But instead of staying in the pocket, he rolls out


And throws a nice pass deep that’s incomplete

Now I’m not going to blame this on being “skiddish” or anything, but I just want it noted. Also note that I didn't count this pass against his attempt total.

4th Quarter
0/1

Note: that incompletion was a tipped pass

Overtime
0/0

That brings his game total to:
2/15 11 yards. That's a 19.49 NCAA QB Rating.

And this isn't the only game that it's been a problem.

He's not even close to the same level as Teddy under pressure.



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Adrenaline_Flux


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PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2013 8:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

.Buzz wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Clowney and QB in round 2


What QB though? I could see Manziel getting overdrafted because teams need a QB. Stephan Morris? David Fales?

Not really sure they'd be good value with a guy like Gabe Jackson possibly sitting there. I'd honestly love to have Clowney or Barr on this team, I know we need a QB but if one isn't there both of those guys should be build around guys on defenses. I just don't know how we'd draft one in the 2nd unless some guys build their stock up from now til than. I haven't seen a ton of guys outside of Teddy/Bortles/Manziel/Hundley/Carr, but I haven't heard good things.


I don't think Morris goes too highly now.

I think there's a plethora of QBs that will be available in round 2, and even 3 but I don't see them waiting that long.
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