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stallyns


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 10:39 pm    Post subject: AFC Playoffs and who to root for Reply with quote

AFC South - W-L/GB
1. Colts 8-4/0
2. Titans 5-7/2
3. Jaguars 3-9/5
4. Texans 2-10/5

AFC Playoffs
Division Leaders
1. Broncos 10-2 West
2. Patriots 9-3 East
3. Colts 8-4 South (Colts hold tie breaker over Bengals with conference record of 6-2 vs 6-3)
4. Bengals 8-4 North

Wild Card
5. Chiefs 9-3
6. Ravens 6-6 (Ravens hold tie breaker over Dolphins based on head to head [1-0]

Best of the Rest
1. Dolphins 6-6
2. Titans 5-7 (Titans hold tie breakers over Pitt, SD and NYJ based on head to head [3-0] )
3. Steelers 5-7 (hold tie breaker over SD and NYJ based on conf recored [4-5])
4. Chargers 5-7 (conf record 3-6)
5. Jets 5-7 (conf record 2-7)
6. Raiders 4-8 (holds tie breaker over Cle and Buff based on conf record 4-4, Cle - 3-6, BUff 3-6)
7. Browns 4-8 (hold tie breaker over BUff based on head to head)
8. Bills 4-8
9. Jaguars 3-9
10. Texans 2-10

Eliminated
Wild Card - None
Division - Raiders, Texans, Chargers, Jaguars, Bills

Scenarios (courtesy of Joe Ferreira/CBS Sports (Through Week 11)
Arrow Jaguars/Wild Card elimination - (1) loss and Ravens win, or (2)loss and Dolphins win
Arrow Texans/Wild Card elimination - (1) loss, or (2)Dolphins win (Ravens hold tie breaker over Texans based on head to head, but that isn't accountable in 3 way ties)
Arrow Broncos/Playoff clinch -(1).WIN or TIE (2).MIA loss/tie (3).BAL loss/tie
Arrow Kansas City/Playoff clinch - (1).WIN + MIA loss/tie (2).WIN + BAL loss/tie (3).TIE + MIA loss (4).TIE + BAL loss
Arrow New England/Division clinch - (1).WIN + MIA loss/tie (2).TIE + MIA loss
Arrow New England/Playoff Clinch - (1).WIN + BAL loss/tie (2).TIE + BAL loss
Arrow Indianapolis/Division clinch - (1).WIN (2).TEN loss (3).TIE + TEN tie
_________________
Colts draft picks:
#59 - OL Jack Mewhort Ohio ST
#90 - WR Donte Moncrief Ole Miss
#166 - OLB Johnathan Newsome Ball ST
#203 - ILB Andrew Jackson Western Kentucky
#232 - OT Ulrick John Georgia ST


Last edited by stallyns on Wed Dec 04, 2013 12:57 am; edited 16 times in total
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stallyns


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 11:00 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Week 10 schedule

Rams @ Colts - COLTS (d'uh)
Jaguars @ Titans - JAGUARS (whether the Colts win or lose a Titans loss is beneficial)
Raiders @ GIANTS - Raiders (normally when the AFC faces the NFC cheer NFC, Raiders on Colt's schedule helps SOS)
Bengals @ Ravens - RAVENS (a Ravens win helps our chances at a better seed in the playoffs vs a Bengals win helping SOS)
Texans @ Cardinsl - CARDINALS (NFC over AFC? check, both schedule opponents? check, divisional opponent losing? check)
Broncos @ Chargers - CHARGERS (both teams on schedule, Broncos could regain lead of their division with continued wins but a loss keeps the Broncos as a wild card for awhile longer)
Dolphins @ Buccaneers - BUCCANEERS (we will take an NFC win over SOS for this based on playoff possibilities)




Forget Me Not - Matches that have little bearing on the playoffs and involve teams not on Colt's schedule
Bills @ Steelers - BILLS (sorry to those Steeler's fans who might happen upon this. This has nothing to do with rooting against you but more I still feel the Steelers a bigger threat to make a playoff run then the Bills.
_________________
Colts draft picks:
#59 - OL Jack Mewhort Ohio ST
#90 - WR Donte Moncrief Ole Miss
#166 - OLB Johnathan Newsome Ball ST
#203 - ILB Andrew Jackson Western Kentucky
#232 - OT Ulrick John Georgia ST
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seriously27


Joined: 24 Apr 2006
Posts: 3481
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PostPosted: Sat Nov 09, 2013 7:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

stallyns wrote:
Week 10 schedule

Rams @ Colts - COLTS (d'uh)
Jaguars @ Titans - JAGUARS (whether the Colts win or lose a Titans loss is beneficial)
Raiders @ GIANTS - Raiders (normally when the AFC faces the NFC cheer NFC, Raiders on Colt's schedule helps SOS)
Bengals @ Ravens - RAVENS (a Ravens win helps our chances at a better seed in the playoffs vs a Bengals win helping SOS)
Texans @ Cardinsl - CARDINALS (NFC over AFC? check, both schedule opponents? check, divisional opponent losing? check)
Broncos @ Chargers - CHARGERS (both teams on schedule, Broncos could regain lead of their division with continued wins but a loss keeps the Broncos as a wild card for awhile longer)
Dolphins @ Buccaneers - BUCCANEERS (we will take an NFC win over SOS for this based on playoff possibilities)




Forget Me Not - Matches that have little bearing on the playoffs and involve teams not on Colt's schedule
Bills @ Steelers - BILLS (sorry to those Steeler's fans who might happen upon this. This has nothing to do with rooting against you but more I still feel the Steelers a bigger threat to make a playoff run then the Bills.


I still root for Peyton Manning. The colts are first and foremost for me but I still can't help rooting for him even if a loss would help the colts. It's too ingrained in my life to change now.
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coltsmanic808


Joined: 21 Nov 2010
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:22 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

seriously27 wrote:
stallyns wrote:
Week 10 schedule

Rams @ Colts - COLTS (d'uh)
Jaguars @ Titans - JAGUARS (whether the Colts win or lose a Titans loss is beneficial)
Raiders @ GIANTS - Raiders (normally when the AFC faces the NFC cheer NFC, Raiders on Colt's schedule helps SOS)
Bengals @ Ravens - RAVENS (a Ravens win helps our chances at a better seed in the playoffs vs a Bengals win helping SOS)
Texans @ Cardinsl - CARDINALS (NFC over AFC? check, both schedule opponents? check, divisional opponent losing? check)
Broncos @ Chargers - CHARGERS (both teams on schedule, Broncos could regain lead of their division with continued wins but a loss keeps the Broncos as a wild card for awhile longer)
Dolphins @ Buccaneers - BUCCANEERS (we will take an NFC win over SOS for this based on playoff possibilities)




Forget Me Not - Matches that have little bearing on the playoffs and involve teams not on Colt's schedule
Bills @ Steelers - BILLS (sorry to those Steeler's fans who might happen upon this. This has nothing to do with rooting against you but more I still feel the Steelers a bigger threat to make a playoff run then the Bills.


I still root for Peyton Manning. The colts are first and foremost for me but I still can't help rooting for him even if a loss would help the colts. It's too ingrained in my life to change now.


You and me both
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stallyns


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 1:17 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

OP updated for current records through tonight's Dolphins loss to Tampa Bay



Week 11 matchups
Thursday
Colts at Titans - Colts - win gives us a 3 game divisional lead with 6 games to go and one more game against each divisional opponent

Sunday
Jets at Bills - BILLS - Jets are currently sitting in the 6th WC seed. 2 games behind the Patriots. Neither team effects SOS. A Jets loss though increases the Colts chances to clinch a playoff spot in the event that this weeks game goes south for us.

Lions at Steelers - LIONS - Cheer NFC over AFC (To be 100% honest, I'm cheering for the Steelers for the Packers sake)

Cardinals at Jaguars - CARDINALS - Cheer NFC over AFC (I considered whether to cheer for the Jaguars to win to thwart the Tank for Teddy effort but I'm not sure I'm ready for them to add Clowney or someone else)

Raiders at Texans - RAIDERS - another instance where the divisional opponent doesn't really threaten our chance at the title, but better safe then sorry and adding the cherry on top Raiders win helps SOS

Ravens at Bears - BEARS - NFC over AFC (not as easily cheering for the Ravens on this one for the Packers sake because the Bears are hurting with Cutler and Tillman out)

Browns at Bengals - BROWNS - Bengals win helps SOS but a Bengals loss helps us maintain the #3 seed

Chargers at Dolphins - PASS -
Both teams 1 GB WC? check
Both teams 4-5? check
Both teams on the Colts schedule? check
Both teams beat the Colts? check
Chalk this game up to personal preference

Chiefs at Broncos - BRONCOS - Chiefs undefeated, Peyton with the Broncos. The only way you would cheer for the Chiefs is if you are a heartless soulless SOB.

Patriots at Panthers - PANTHERS - The only way you'd cheer for the Patriots is if you are a heartless soulless SOB
_________________
Colts draft picks:
#59 - OL Jack Mewhort Ohio ST
#90 - WR Donte Moncrief Ole Miss
#166 - OLB Johnathan Newsome Ball ST
#203 - ILB Andrew Jackson Western Kentucky
#232 - OT Ulrick John Georgia ST
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wayne87reggie


Joined: 03 Mar 2009
Posts: 12799
PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 5:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

stallyns wrote:

Chiefs at Broncos - BRONCOS - Chiefs undefeated, Peyton with the Broncos. The only way you would cheer for the Chiefs is if you are a heartless soulless SOB.


I like this, Im thinking about putting it in my sig Laughing
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reckless123 wrote:
I would love to see this go back and forth but its unlike Harden to get defensive.
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ColtsFan40


Joined: 14 Apr 2009
Posts: 1394
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 13, 2013 2:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

wayne87reggie wrote:
stallyns wrote:

Chiefs at Broncos - BRONCOS - Chiefs undefeated, Peyton with the Broncos. The only way you would cheer for the Chiefs is if you are a heartless soulless SOB.


I like this, Im thinking about putting it in my sig Laughing


I have to admit that I will be cheering for the Chiefs. I hope Peyton has a good game but in the end I hate Denver too much. Plus its kind of nice to point out to all the Denver fans I know that they are in second place because of the Colts Laughing
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stallyns


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 15, 2013 11:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Colts are now 4-1 on the road and 3-2 at home.

home games left
Wk 13 - Tennessee
Wk 15 - Houston
Wk 17 - Jacksonville

road games left
Wk 12 - Arizona
Wk 14 - Cincinnati
Wk 16 - Kansas City
_________________
Colts draft picks:
#59 - OL Jack Mewhort Ohio ST
#90 - WR Donte Moncrief Ole Miss
#166 - OLB Johnathan Newsome Ball ST
#203 - ILB Andrew Jackson Western Kentucky
#232 - OT Ulrick John Georgia ST
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stallyns


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PostPosted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 3:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace

Quote:
Kansas City Chiefs
KANSAS CITY can clinch the AFC West title at home in three weeks when they host Denver if they win their next two games at Denver and vs. San Diego, and Denver loses at New England on Week 12. That would have Kansas City at 12-4 at worst with a season sweep of Denver, and Denver would be 12-4 at best.

Indianapolis Colts
INDIANAPOLIS can clinch the AFC South division title with wins over next two weeks (at Arizona, vs. Tennessee) and one Houston loss or tie. Wins get Indianapolis to 9-3 (9-7 at worst) and a Tennessee loss on Week 13 means the best the Titans can be is 9-7 and they will be swept by Indianapolis. The Houston loss or tie is needed as without that, Houston could still get to 9-7 and split head-to-head with Indianapolis and beat the Colts on division record, 5-1 to 4-2.

_________________
Colts draft picks:
#59 - OL Jack Mewhort Ohio ST
#90 - WR Donte Moncrief Ole Miss
#166 - OLB Johnathan Newsome Ball ST
#203 - ILB Andrew Jackson Western Kentucky
#232 - OT Ulrick John Georgia ST
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wayne87reggie


Joined: 03 Mar 2009
Posts: 12799
PostPosted: Sun Nov 17, 2013 9:28 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

stallyns wrote:
http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/standings/playoffrace

Quote:
Kansas City Chiefs
KANSAS CITY can clinch the AFC West title at home in three weeks when they host Denver if they win their next two games at Denver and vs. San Diego, and Denver loses at New England on Week 12. That would have Kansas City at 12-4 at worst with a season sweep of Denver, and Denver would be 12-4 at best.

Indianapolis Colts
INDIANAPOLIS can clinch the AFC South division title with wins over next two weeks (at Arizona, vs. Tennessee) and one Houston loss or tie. Wins get Indianapolis to 9-3 (9-7 at worst) and a Tennessee loss on Week 13 means the best the Titans can be is 9-7 and they will be swept by Indianapolis. The Houston loss or tie is needed as without that, Houston could still get to 9-7 and split head-to-head with Indianapolis and beat the Colts on division record, 5-1 to 4-2.


lets just get to 11-12 wins and not worry about any of those tie breakers
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reckless123 wrote:
I would love to see this go back and forth but its unlike Harden to get defensive.
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stallyns


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 12:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

After checking, if the Patriots were to lose tomorrow to the Panthers the Colts and Patriots would be tied at 7-3.

The first tie breaker is head to head which is not applicable.

The second tie breaker is won-loss-tie percentage in conference. Because of the Panthers being an NFC team the outcome has no bearing on win% so the Patriots are currently 4-2 in the AFC and the Colts are 5-2.

So a Patriot loss would leave the Colts as the #2 seed. Also as the Broncos are currently leading the Chiefs by 17 at the moment. It is interesting to note the Broncos and Patriots play each other next week.
_________________
Colts draft picks:
#59 - OL Jack Mewhort Ohio ST
#90 - WR Donte Moncrief Ole Miss
#166 - OLB Johnathan Newsome Ball ST
#203 - ILB Andrew Jackson Western Kentucky
#232 - OT Ulrick John Georgia ST
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stallyns


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 18, 2013 1:48 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

stallyns wrote:
After checking, if the Patriots were to lose tomorrow to the Panthers the Colts and Patriots would be tied at 7-3.

The first tie breaker is head to head which is not applicable.

The second tie breaker is won-loss-tie percentage in conference. Because of the Panthers being an NFC team the outcome has no bearing on win% so the Patriots are currently 4-2 in the AFC and the Colts are 5-2.

So a Patriot loss would leave the Colts as the #2 seed. Also as the Broncos are currently leading the Chiefs by 17 at the moment. It is interesting to note the Broncos and Patriots play each other next week.


Should the Patriots win tomorrow, the Colts would need the Broncos to beat the Pats the following week. The next tie breaker after conference W/L% is win% amongst common opponents

The 5 common opponents the Colts and Patriots have are:
Denver, Cincinnati, Houston (Ind x2) and Miami (NE x2)

Colts (2-1) beat Den and Hou, a loss to Mia with Cin and Hou yet to play
Pats (1-1) beat Mia and loss to Cin with Den, Hou and Mia yet to play.
_________________
Colts draft picks:
#59 - OL Jack Mewhort Ohio ST
#90 - WR Donte Moncrief Ole Miss
#166 - OLB Johnathan Newsome Ball ST
#203 - ILB Andrew Jackson Western Kentucky
#232 - OT Ulrick John Georgia ST
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stallyns


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 20, 2013 7:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Week 12 (byes - Bengals and Bills)

NY Jets at Baltimore - RAVENS - Barring the unforeseen the Colts should have the division wrapped up in the next couple of weeks but realistically a Jets loss leaves both teams at 6 losses and makes it much easier for the Colts to clinch a wild card, if necessary. Also neither team is applicable for SOS.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland - BROWNS - Steelers and Browns have identical records (4-6), identical Conference records (3-4) and neither are on the Colts schedule. So like two weeks ago when I cheered for the Bills over the Steelers I am cheering for the Steelers because they are still the bigger threat.

Jacksonville at Houston - JAGUARS - what can I say, this outcome would essentially eliminate 2 teams from the division in one fell swoop. (that is as long as the Colts win) plus after the Buccs fall from grace the Jaguars are shoo ins for Teddyeven with a win.

San Diego at KC - CHARGERS - both team affect SOS so no real issue in that regard. Chiefs conference record is 6-1 right now so we might need them to loss a few conference games so that we can have a tie breaker in our back pocket

Carolina at Miami - PANTHERS - sacrificing SOS for playoff stability

Indianapolis at Arizona - COLTS - Colts

Tennessee at Oakland - RAIDERS - Divisional opponent loss. Both teams affect SOS

Denver at New England - BRONCOS - Peyton vs Tom; Pats loss gives us breathing room in seeding
_________________
Colts draft picks:
#59 - OL Jack Mewhort Ohio ST
#90 - WR Donte Moncrief Ole Miss
#166 - OLB Johnathan Newsome Ball ST
#203 - ILB Andrew Jackson Western Kentucky
#232 - OT Ulrick John Georgia ST
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stallyns


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 26, 2013 11:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Speaking of rooting, not only is there the playoff hunt but there is also the race to give the Browns the worst possible draft pick for TRich

Though it is honestly a fair bet the Colts won't give the Browns a top 10 pick from this trade. The Colts can officially say that the pick won't be the #1 overall.

With the worst possible record for the Colts being 7-9 the Colts can smile knowing that the Texans and Jaguars (both 2-9) have one more head to head matchup guaranteeing one of them a minimum of 10 losses.

A Colts win guarantees the pick is not Top 4 (Falcons, Jaguars and Texans 9 losses/Vikings can only win 7 games because of their tie)
_________________
Colts draft picks:
#59 - OL Jack Mewhort Ohio ST
#90 - WR Donte Moncrief Ole Miss
#166 - OLB Johnathan Newsome Ball ST
#203 - ILB Andrew Jackson Western Kentucky
#232 - OT Ulrick John Georgia ST
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stallyns


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 29, 2013 3:17 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Titans @ Colts - COLTS - FTW

Texans vs Patriots - TEXANS (we don't have to worry about the Texans unless we lose out and they win out so cheering for them to beat the Patriots is beneficial) + SOS help

Bengals @ Chargers - CHARGERS (any help we can get to preserve at least the 3 seed to prevent getting KC or Den in the WC round

Jaguars @ Browns - BROWNS (I would go with the Jaguars to win for SOS purposes but both teams are close to DOA in the playoffs so getting the Jaguars eliminated outright makes a huge difference. And hey if the Browns original pick falls out of the top 10 then they might have to trade up to get the impact player they need despite 2 first rounders)

Rams over 49ers - RAMS - at least if the team that beat us defeats the team we've beaten

SOS wins
Dolphins over Jets
Cardinals over Eagles
Seahawks over Saints

Broncos over Chiefs - This game you could go either way, either team wins and takes full control of the AFC West and the #1 seed.
_________________
Colts draft picks:
#59 - OL Jack Mewhort Ohio ST
#90 - WR Donte Moncrief Ole Miss
#166 - OLB Johnathan Newsome Ball ST
#203 - ILB Andrew Jackson Western Kentucky
#232 - OT Ulrick John Georgia ST
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