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Should Chris Jones be in the discussion for DROY?
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derekstanggt


Joined: 18 Dec 2007
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PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 11:10 am    Post subject: Should Chris Jones be in the discussion for DROY? Reply with quote

I was just reading the thread about the ROY awards in NFL Gen, and got to thinking that Jones is still very under the radar around the NFL. I'm not necessarily saying he should win it, hard to pick a winner only halfway through the season, but I at least think he should be in the mix. Only 5 games played, but 5 sacks and 27 tackles for a DT. That's impressive. He's been pretty good at getting pressure, and seems to hold up well enough in the run game. The 27 tackles show he at least isn't getting blown up in the run game. Of course it's hard to not mention guys like Reid, Richardson (whom I think is over-rated because he plays in NY), and Alonso. Actually, if I had to pick a DROY now, it would be Alonso. But if Jones keeps up his pace this season, I could see him winning it. He's currently on pace for 70 tackles, 13 sacks and 3 stfs.
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 11:28 am    Post subject: Re: Should Chris Jones be in the discussion for DROY? Reply with quote

derekstanggt wrote:
I was just reading the thread about the ROY awards in NFL Gen, and got to thinking that Jones is still very under the radar around the NFL. I'm not necessarily saying he should win it, hard to pick a winner only halfway through the season, but I at least think he should be in the mix. Only 5 games played, but 5 sacks and 27 tackles for a DT. That's impressive. He's been pretty good at getting pressure, and seems to hold up well enough in the run game. The 27 tackles show he at least isn't getting blown up in the run game. Of course it's hard to not mention guys like Reid, Richardson (whom I think is over-rated because he plays in NY), and Alonso. Actually, if I had to pick a DROY now, it would be Alonso. But if Jones keeps up his pace this season, I could see him winning it. He's currently on pace for 70 tackles, 13 sacks and 3 stfs.


No. If he continues to put up sacks, yes. But he has struggled in the run game and IMO he's not going to get a lot more sacks (ie I think his current numbers are fluky).

I like Jones quite a bit but he looks more like a nice rotation guy that starting quality player. His numbers will also slip when Kelly is back.
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derekstanggt


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 12:08 pm    Post subject: Re: Should Chris Jones be in the discussion for DROY? Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
derekstanggt wrote:
I was just reading the thread about the ROY awards in NFL Gen, and got to thinking that Jones is still very under the radar around the NFL. I'm not necessarily saying he should win it, hard to pick a winner only halfway through the season, but I at least think he should be in the mix. Only 5 games played, but 5 sacks and 27 tackles for a DT. That's impressive. He's been pretty good at getting pressure, and seems to hold up well enough in the run game. The 27 tackles show he at least isn't getting blown up in the run game. Of course it's hard to not mention guys like Reid, Richardson (whom I think is over-rated because he plays in NY), and Alonso. Actually, if I had to pick a DROY now, it would be Alonso. But if Jones keeps up his pace this season, I could see him winning it. He's currently on pace for 70 tackles, 13 sacks and 3 stfs.


No. If he continues to put up sacks, yes. But he has struggled in the run game and IMO he's not going to get a lot more sacks (ie I think his current numbers are fluky).

I like Jones quite a bit but he looks more like a nice rotation guy that starting quality player. His numbers will also slip when Kelly is back.


Besides the sack where he barrel rolled into Geno's legs, can you elaborate on how his numbers are fluky? I see him in the backfield a lot, with good pressure. I think as he gets more experience and strength, he will spend more time in the backfield. And I tend to think his numbers will get better when Kelly returns, as Kelly will get more attention from double teams. The schedule makes it look realistic too. I could see at least one sack against Pit, Miami, Car (mobile QB who likes to move from the pocket), Hou, Balt.
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NinjaZX6R


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 12:22 pm    Post subject: Re: Should Chris Jones be in the discussion for DROY? Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
derekstanggt wrote:
I was just reading the thread about the ROY awards in NFL Gen, and got to thinking that Jones is still very under the radar around the NFL. I'm not necessarily saying he should win it, hard to pick a winner only halfway through the season, but I at least think he should be in the mix. Only 5 games played, but 5 sacks and 27 tackles for a DT. That's impressive. He's been pretty good at getting pressure, and seems to hold up well enough in the run game. The 27 tackles show he at least isn't getting blown up in the run game. Of course it's hard to not mention guys like Reid, Richardson (whom I think is over-rated because he plays in NY), and Alonso. Actually, if I had to pick a DROY now, it would be Alonso. But if Jones keeps up his pace this season, I could see him winning it. He's currently on pace for 70 tackles, 13 sacks and 3 stfs.


No. If he continues to put up sacks, yes. But he has struggled in the run game and IMO he's not going to get a lot more sacks (ie I think his current numbers are fluky).

I like Jones quite a bit but he looks more like a nice rotation guy that starting quality player. His numbers will also slip when Kelly is back.


I would love for them to kick Kelly to the outside (LDE-5 tech) on rush downs with the two rookie DTs inside and Ninko and DH as LBs.
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24isthelaw


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 12:40 pm    Post subject: Re: Should Chris Jones be in the discussion for DROY? Reply with quote

mcmurtry86 wrote:
No. If he continues to put up sacks, yes. But he has struggled in the run game and IMO he's not going to get a lot more sacks (ie I think his current numbers are fluky).

I like Jones quite a bit but he looks more like a nice rotation guy that starting quality player. His numbers will also slip when Kelly is back.


Re: fluky sacks, I haven't done any research into this, but I suspect that over a large sample size, sacks stabilize relative to other metrics of disruption (hits and hurries). I'd guess that a player who accumulates a lot of sacks but few hits and hurries is primed for regression.
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24isthelaw


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 12:42 pm    Post subject: Re: Should Chris Jones be in the discussion for DROY? Reply with quote

derekstanggt wrote:
Besides the sack where he barrel rolled into Geno's legs, can you elaborate on how his numbers are fluky? I see him in the backfield a lot, with good pressure. I think as he gets more experience and strength, he will spend more time in the backfield. And I tend to think his numbers will get better when Kelly returns, as Kelly will get more attention from double teams. The schedule makes it look realistic too. I could see at least one sack against Pit, Miami, Car (mobile QB who likes to move from the pocket), Hou, Balt.


I hope you're correct but he doesn't look like a guy who is going to develop physically. Pretty maxed out to me.
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Sciz


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 12:49 pm    Post subject: Re: Should Chris Jones be in the discussion for DROY? Reply with quote

24isthelaw wrote:
Re: fluky sacks, I haven't done any research into this, but I suspect that over a large sample size, sacks stabilize relative to other metrics of disruption (hits and hurries). I'd guess that a player who accumulates a lot of sacks but few hits and hurries is primed for regression.
Exactly. According to Doug Kyed's numbers, Chris Jones currently has 5 sacks (on six total sacking plays thanks to the two halves), 2 hits, and 5 hurries. That means he has pressured the QB on 13 plays, 6 plays of which have turned into his five sacks. That's not the type of production a pass rusher can maintain for a whole season.

I think that to be in the discussion for DROY, Jones needs 10 sacks and needs to lead rookies in sacks. He's on pace for that now, but the other stats aren't in favor of that continuing.
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derekstanggt


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 1:42 pm    Post subject: Re: Should Chris Jones be in the discussion for DROY? Reply with quote

Sciz wrote:
24isthelaw wrote:
Re: fluky sacks, I haven't done any research into this, but I suspect that over a large sample size, sacks stabilize relative to other metrics of disruption (hits and hurries). I'd guess that a player who accumulates a lot of sacks but few hits and hurries is primed for regression.
Exactly. According to Doug Kyed's numbers, Chris Jones currently has 5 sacks (on six total sacking plays thanks to the two halves), 2 hits, and 5 hurries. That means he has pressured the QB on 13 plays, 6 plays of which have turned into his five sacks. That's not the type of production a pass rusher can maintain for a whole season.


That makes sense, but this would be assuming he's hit his ceiling already. Technique alone could allow him to vastly improve.
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Canton


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 3:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I definitely think so. Dude has been disruptive in both the run and passing game, especially the passing game. One of the best at getting pressure and I think he was leading all rookies in sacks. No fluke, this kid can ball.
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TomRalph


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 4:39 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Canton wrote:
I definitely think so. Dude has been disruptive in both the run and passing game, especially the passing game. One of the best at getting pressure and I think he was leading all rookies in sacks. No fluke, this kid can ball.


Really? Confused
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 5:16 pm    Post subject: Re: Should Chris Jones be in the discussion for DROY? Reply with quote

derekstanggt wrote:
mcmurtry86 wrote:
derekstanggt wrote:
I was just reading the thread about the ROY awards in NFL Gen, and got to thinking that Jones is still very under the radar around the NFL. I'm not necessarily saying he should win it, hard to pick a winner only halfway through the season, but I at least think he should be in the mix. Only 5 games played, but 5 sacks and 27 tackles for a DT. That's impressive. He's been pretty good at getting pressure, and seems to hold up well enough in the run game. The 27 tackles show he at least isn't getting blown up in the run game. Of course it's hard to not mention guys like Reid, Richardson (whom I think is over-rated because he plays in NY), and Alonso. Actually, if I had to pick a DROY now, it would be Alonso. But if Jones keeps up his pace this season, I could see him winning it. He's currently on pace for 70 tackles, 13 sacks and 3 stfs.


No. If he continues to put up sacks, yes. But he has struggled in the run game and IMO he's not going to get a lot more sacks (ie I think his current numbers are fluky).

I like Jones quite a bit but he looks more like a nice rotation guy that starting quality player. His numbers will also slip when Kelly is back.


Besides the sack where he barrel rolled into Geno's legs, can you elaborate on how his numbers are fluky? I see him in the backfield a lot, with good pressure. I think as he gets more experience and strength, he will spend more time in the backfield. And I tend to think his numbers will get better when Kelly returns, as Kelly will get more attention from double teams. The schedule makes it look realistic too. I could see at least one sack against Pit, Miami, Car (mobile QB who likes to move from the pocket), Hou, Balt.


When Kelly gets back, Jones will see his snaps decrease significantly. That's a good reason to expect his number of tackles and sacks to decline.
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Tzimisce


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 5:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

On the other hand, if he's used more sparingly, he might be fresher throughout games and get better push when he's called on. Plus, if he's used strictly on passing downs he might just be able to pin his ears back and go right at the QB, which might actually help his production.
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goldfishwars


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 5:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tzimisce wrote:
On the other hand, if he's used more sparingly, he might be fresher throughout games and get better push when he's called on. Plus, if he's used strictly on passing downs he might just be able to pin his ears back and go right at the QB, which might actually help his production.


I think that's what he is eventually.
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Tzimisce


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 5:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

goldfishwars wrote:
Tzimisce wrote:
On the other hand, if he's used more sparingly, he might be fresher throughout games and get better push when he's called on. Plus, if he's used strictly on passing downs he might just be able to pin his ears back and go right at the QB, which might actually help his production.


I think that's what he is eventually.
Yeah. Mike Wright 2.0.

Hopefully minus the concussions.
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24isthelaw


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PostPosted: Fri Nov 01, 2013 5:52 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tzimisce wrote:
goldfishwars wrote:
Tzimisce wrote:
On the other hand, if he's used more sparingly, he might be fresher throughout games and get better push when he's called on. Plus, if he's used strictly on passing downs he might just be able to pin his ears back and go right at the QB, which might actually help his production.


I think that's what he is eventually.
Yeah. Mike Wright 2.0.

Hopefully minus the concussions.


I don't think he's as athletic as Wright, but he's more of a power player. I think Jones has the upside to be more of a base DT than Wright ever did.

Not an ideal guy in that role, mind you, but as a backup he'd be great.
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