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What do you do?
Clowney it is!!
26%
 26%  [ 5 ]
Draft pick compensation for Clowney!!
26%
 26%  [ 5 ]
Mariota!! (if he declares)
47%
 47%  [ 9 ]
Hundley!! (if he declares)
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
Total Votes : 19

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Vino


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 10:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
I did read his post, but that doesn't mean I have to agree with it. I think Marcus Mariota is an NFL-ready QB. He may not have the same immediate success as an Andrew Luck or possibly even Teddy Bridgewater, but I definitely view him as the #2 QB and a guy who would be able to start for an NFL team from day one. I felt his analysis fit Brett Hundley a lot better. Hundley is much better served sitting a year, but he probably won't. Additionally, if Teddy Bridgewater is off the board, I'm fine with them taking an elite talent like Jadeveon Clowney that can instantly bring great improvement to our pass rush.

What else are we going to do? Trading down isn't as easy as it looks on paper. There'd likely be interest, but there's no guarantee that we'd be able to find a trade partner willing to give us the adequate compensation to move down in the draft and potentially miss out on an elite prospect. Besides trading down, who else is there to select at #2? Anybody besides Mariota and Clowney and it's probably going to be a reach and one that doesn't make sense at that.

I don't see how you can think Mariota is NFL ready. He's not. He has all the physical tools at an elite level, but the mental aspect of his game just isn't there. Because he plays at Oregon, he doesn't know how to make multiple reads at the LOS, he doesn't know how to go through progressions properly, he's never played in a pro-style offense, and he has a tendency to run if his hot read isn't open and he can get away with it. Mariota will be a project at best when he comes into the league and will need to sit for a year to learn how to be a proper NFL QB. He'd be Gabbert 2.0 if we put him out there. It would be the same [inappropriate/removed] all over again.

Mariota is a reach at 2. There are a lot of teams I think that would be ready to bite for Clowney at number 2. He's the best defensive prospect in a long long long time.
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iPwn


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 10:54 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think you just described former rookie of the year winners Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III.
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JaguarCrazy2832


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 11:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Is Clowney getting overrated?
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Adrenaline_Flux


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 05, 2013 11:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vino wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
I did read his post, but that doesn't mean I have to agree with it. I think Marcus Mariota is an NFL-ready QB. He may not have the same immediate success as an Andrew Luck or possibly even Teddy Bridgewater, but I definitely view him as the #2 QB and a guy who would be able to start for an NFL team from day one. I felt his analysis fit Brett Hundley a lot better. Hundley is much better served sitting a year, but he probably won't. Additionally, if Teddy Bridgewater is off the board, I'm fine with them taking an elite talent like Jadeveon Clowney that can instantly bring great improvement to our pass rush.

What else are we going to do? Trading down isn't as easy as it looks on paper. There'd likely be interest, but there's no guarantee that we'd be able to find a trade partner willing to give us the adequate compensation to move down in the draft and potentially miss out on an elite prospect. Besides trading down, who else is there to select at #2? Anybody besides Mariota and Clowney and it's probably going to be a reach and one that doesn't make sense at that.

I don't see how you can think Mariota is NFL ready. He's not. He has all the physical tools at an elite level, but the mental aspect of his game just isn't there. Because he plays at Oregon, he doesn't know how to make multiple reads at the LOS, he doesn't know how to go through progressions properly, he's never played in a pro-style offense, and he has a tendency to run if his hot read isn't open and he can get away with it. Mariota will be a project at best when he comes into the league and will need to sit for a year to learn how to be a proper NFL QB. He'd be Gabbert 2.0 if we put him out there. It would be the same [inappropriate/removed] all over again.

Mariota is a reach at 2. There are a lot of teams I think that would be ready to bite for Clowney at number 2. He's the best defensive prospect in a long long long time.


I'm not sure if we're watching the same player. Marcus Mariota has demonstrated many times, especially this year, that he has the mental aspect of the game down. Is he a riskier selection than Teddy Bridgewater? Yes. You can't live in QB fear though. Surefire guys like Andrew Luck and Teddy Bridgewater are not the norm. More often than not, you're going to have to take a calculated risk on a Cam Newton or a Marcus Mariota. FWIW I have Mariota graded out much higher than Newton as far as prospects go as well.

If there are a lot of teams that would be ready to bite for Clowney at number 2 because he's "the best defensive prospect in a long long long time" then how would he be a reach at #2?
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iPwn


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 06, 2013 12:33 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This defense is predicated on great play in the secondary (we seem to think we have 3/4 of that starting group for the near future), 5-tech and LEO. Drafting Clowney takes one of our most important positions, one that is the biggest need on defense, and turns that spot into a strength, one of our foundation pieces. I can't see how that's a reach unless it's over a franchise changing QB like Teddy (and Mariota might be).
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Vino


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 06, 2013 1:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
I'm not sure if we're watching the same player. Marcus Mariota has demonstrated many times, especially this year, that he has the mental aspect of the game down. Is he a riskier selection than Teddy Bridgewater? Yes. You can't live in QB fear though. Surefire guys like Andrew Luck and Teddy Bridgewater are not the norm. More often than not, you're going to have to take a calculated risk on a Cam Newton or a Marcus Mariota. FWIW I have Mariota graded out much higher than Newton as far as prospects go as well.

If there are a lot of teams that would be ready to bite for Clowney at number 2 because he's "the best defensive prospect in a long long long time" then how would he be a reach at #2?

I never said Clowney is a reach at number 2. I said Mariota is.

And I don't think we are watching the same player. When have you ever seen Mariota make his own reads? Or go through progressions properly? It's either screen pass, throw it to the designated guy in the flat, or if your hot read down field isn't open take off. I rarely see him actually stand in the pocket for long periods of time, which is just an effect of that Oregon offense. He's not NFL ready. Cam and RGIII won their ROTY awards based off of their ability to run and be a dual threat more than their pure QB skills. Russell Wilson was a better QUARTERBACK than either of them. Offensive ROTY is not a quantifier of QB skill. Cam is a much better QB now than he was his rookie year yet his stats aren't as good. And you're seeing RGIII struggle without his ability to run this year.

Mariota is not worth a top 2 pick by us at this juncture.
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iPwn


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 06, 2013 7:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vino wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
I'm not sure if we're watching the same player. Marcus Mariota has demonstrated many times, especially this year, that he has the mental aspect of the game down. Is he a riskier selection than Teddy Bridgewater? Yes. You can't live in QB fear though. Surefire guys like Andrew Luck and Teddy Bridgewater are not the norm. More often than not, you're going to have to take a calculated risk on a Cam Newton or a Marcus Mariota. FWIW I have Mariota graded out much higher than Newton as far as prospects go as well.

If there are a lot of teams that would be ready to bite for Clowney at number 2 because he's "the best defensive prospect in a long long long time" then how would he be a reach at #2?

I never said Clowney is a reach at number 2. I said Mariota is.

And I don't think we are watching the same player. When have you ever seen Mariota make his own reads? Or go through progressions properly? It's either screen pass, throw it to the designated guy in the flat, or if your hot read down field isn't open take off. I rarely see him actually stand in the pocket for long periods of time, which is just an effect of that Oregon offense. He's not NFL ready. Cam and RGIII won their ROTY awards based off of their ability to run and be a dual threat more than their pure QB skills. Russell Wilson was a better QUARTERBACK than either of them. Offensive ROTY is not a quantifier of QB skill. Cam is a much better QB now than he was his rookie year yet his stats aren't as good. And you're seeing RGIII struggle without his ability to run this year.

Mariota is not worth a top 2 pick by us at this juncture.
The thing is Cam and RGIII were just fine as passers and their running ability made passing easier. They weren't perfect passers their rookie year, but who is? As football players, they were great rookies and they absolutely helped their team win games. And Cam broke rookie QB passing records. Cam's stats aren't out of this world because his receivers suck, and RGIII is recovering from an ACL injury, so of course he isn't running as well.

Mariota isn't the type of prospect that Bridgewater is, but really no one aside from Luck has been that level the last decade. If we don't have a shot at Teddy, Mariota is probably going to be the best QB prospect we have a shot at the next couple years.


And Quarterback play is not strictly your ability as a passer. Ability to run factors into your ability as a QB. Sure, it's preferential to be a great passer, but it really doesn't matter how you get your yards and scores, as long as you're getting them.
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Adrenaline_Flux


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 06, 2013 4:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vino wrote:
Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
I'm not sure if we're watching the same player. Marcus Mariota has demonstrated many times, especially this year, that he has the mental aspect of the game down. Is he a riskier selection than Teddy Bridgewater? Yes. You can't live in QB fear though. Surefire guys like Andrew Luck and Teddy Bridgewater are not the norm. More often than not, you're going to have to take a calculated risk on a Cam Newton or a Marcus Mariota. FWIW I have Mariota graded out much higher than Newton as far as prospects go as well.

If there are a lot of teams that would be ready to bite for Clowney at number 2 because he's "the best defensive prospect in a long long long time" then how would he be a reach at #2?

I never said Clowney is a reach at number 2. I said Mariota is.


Vino wrote:
Did you read JagsFan's post? I think it makes a lot of sense. We shouldn't reach for Mariota or Clowney just because the consensus is they're great talents. Especially Mariota. I'd actually be upset with Caldwell if he makes the same mistake as Gene Smith and wastes a top 10 pick on a QB who isn't NFL ready when our team is a dumpster fire with multiple needs that could be addressed in the first round.


Oh?

Vino wrote:
And I don't think we are watching the same player. When have you ever seen Mariota make his own reads? Or go through progressions properly? It's either screen pass, throw it to the designated guy in the flat, or if your hot read down field isn't open take off. I rarely see him actually stand in the pocket for long periods of time, which is just an effect of that Oregon offense. He's not NFL ready. Cam and RGIII won their ROTY awards based off of their ability to run and be a dual threat more than their pure QB skills. Russell Wilson was a better QUARTERBACK than either of them. Offensive ROTY is not a quantifier of QB skill. Cam is a much better QB now than he was his rookie year yet his stats aren't as good. And you're seeing RGIII struggle without his ability to run this year.

Mariota is not worth a top 2 pick by us at this juncture.


How do you know that there aren't many reads to be made with the Oregon offense? The Oregon complex designed by Chip Kelly is a lot more complex than it seems and its complexity has peaked under Mariota due to Mariota's natural, mental, and instinctive ability. The entire offense is predicated on making quick, accurate reads and executing in a quick and precise manner and Mariota has done a marvelous job of that.

Cam is a better QB now than his rookie year, but that works in favor of my argument. The Auburn offense that Cam was a part of, by his own testimony, was mindblowingly simple. He didn't seem ready at all coming out and he went to a very awful roster. Not only did he enjoy some success early on, but he has grown into a better QB despite the team doing an awful job of acquiring offensive support for him. Not every QB is going to crumble under adversity like David Carr and Blaine Gabbert.

I really don't know what RGIII has to do with this. He's just now coming back into the same player as he was. Not everybody is Adrian Peterson. It took time for RGIII to get back to 100% after his knee injuries. RGIII was also a pretty surefire prospect so I don't really agree with him being in this conversation to begin with.
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PostPosted: Wed Nov 06, 2013 6:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just want to get back in here and expand upon my thoughts regarding Clowney and Mariota. Based upon what I think Vino thinks I was saying, I feel the need to clarify my stance a bit.

Assuming Teddy Bridgewater went to TB with #1 overall, the Jaguars would have the choice of Marcus Mariota or Jadaveon Clowney, neither of whom would be a reach in my opinion. Clowney is the #1 prospect in this draft and he could very well be the pick at #1 if Tampa Bay was to decide Glennon warrants getting another year to prove himself (and with Jameis Winston very possibly making his way to the NFL in 2015, it is a very smart move to consider).

As for Mariota, he is not a reach because of the position he plays. When I assess players with regard to draft position, the position they play is definitely a factor. The most talented punter in the world is not going to be more of a reach in say the 3rd round than a fairly talented collegiate QB whose major knock is being very short. Mariota in my opinion would probably be worth a pick in the 5-10 ranger if not for the fact he is as talented a player as he is at the QB position.

Having said that, I think when you consider the specific situation of this team, both Mariota and Clowney possess less value than the picks this team could acquire in a trade with a team looking to move up to get Mariota/Clowney
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Vino


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PostPosted: Wed Nov 06, 2013 11:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

iPwn wrote:
The thing is Cam and RGIII were just fine as passers and their running ability made passing easier. They weren't perfect passers their rookie year, but who is? As football players, they were great rookies and they absolutely helped their team win games. And Cam broke rookie QB passing records. Cam's stats aren't out of this world because his receivers suck, and RGIII is recovering from an ACL injury, so of course he isn't running as well.

Mariota isn't the type of prospect that Bridgewater is, but really no one aside from Luck has been that level the last decade. If we don't have a shot at Teddy, Mariota is probably going to be the best QB prospect we have a shot at the next couple years.


And Quarterback play is not strictly your ability as a passer. Ability to run factors into your ability as a QB. Sure, it's preferential to be a great passer, but it really doesn't matter how you get your yards and scores, as long as you're getting them.

My point is that you're taking a risk assuming Mariota will be able to adjust to the NFL like those guys. Is he rally worth that risk when we have so many other spots on the roster to fix? If he ends up a bust his first year because he's not ready to pick up a pro style offense then that will be ANOTHER top 1st round pick wasted. I don't think it's a good idea to send a QB who is not prohibitively NFL ready to a dumpster fire like our team. It could ruin him. He's a project just like Gabbert was, and while his ceiling and floor are higher than Gabbert's there's no guarantee he will be able to pick up as a starter immediately. Bridgewater is the only guy in this draft who you know will be able to be your QB from day one.

And I'm saying RGIII is struggling right now without his ability to run. What I'm saying is that without his threat to run, his deficiencies are much more apparent. You can tell he's not used to defenses playing him like an ordinary QB and he has a hard time making tight throws now that teams don't play off their receivers as much. This goes to my point that he won offensive rookie of the year because of his ability to run, not because he was really that great of a pure QB. Yes, running factors into QB play, but I don't value it as much as a lot of people do right now. It's a gimmick to me. If you keep running your QB like that eventually he's going to get his head taken off or knees busted and then what? And what I've seen from a lot of these runners is that once you take that element away from them they're not good passers anymore because they can't fit balls into tighter windows.

All of these things are questions with Mariota and we can't risk it. We can't risk yet another top pick being a bust or draft a QB that should sit a year and start them.

Adrenaline_Flux wrote:
Oh?

I didn't mean Clowney wasn't worth a top 2 pick there. I meant we shouldn't go out and draft these guys just because everyone says that we should. I consider Mariota a reach for a top 2 pick, but not Clowney. I just think it would be more worth it to us to shore up more picks than draft Clowney who wouldn't be near the solution to all our problems. We could draft other pass rushers in this draft who have a lot of potential and would be steals and have plenty more picks to us than draft one DE. I don't care what anyone says about Clowney being to defense what Luck was to offense last year. This isn't the NBA where one or two guys can entirely turn your team around.

Quote:
How do you know that there aren't many reads to be made with the Oregon offense? The Oregon complex designed by Chip Kelly is a lot more complex than it seems and its complexity has peaked under Mariota due to Mariota's natural, mental, and instinctive ability. The entire offense is predicated on making quick, accurate reads and executing in a quick and precise manner and Mariota has done a marvelous job of that.

At most Mariota is given one read to make himself while all the other reads are given to Mariota by the Oregon staff. I'm probably being generous to say he makes even one read himself other than to decide whether to run the ball or not. I think Johnny Manziel is given more responsibilities in TAMU's spread offense than Mariota is given. Mariota's physical abilities open up Oregon's offense a lot, but that's it. It's his physical abilities that is the catalyst, the mental aspect of his game is not what opens up the offense. And that hardly translates to the NFL where the QB is expected to make his own reads and their ability to do that is what separates a lot of the good QBs from the mediocre and bad ones.

That "quick" aspect you mentioned is exactly why Mariota never learned how to go through progressions properly. I explained it in the post, in the Oregon offense he either screen passes it, checks it down to the flat, or takes off running if no one is open and the linebackers are sagging. As you said, the Oregon offense is more complex than it appears and is based on a lot of situational plays, but for the QB the plays themselves are really simple. Now, the fact Mariota was able to remember all the situational aspects of the system and know what to do with the reads his coaches gives him does mean it's possible that he can learn a system, but that's not the same as being able to make your own reads and take your time and go through progressions. I'm not saying he won't be able to one day, but it will take him time and imo he won't be ready to start day one.

Quote:
Cam is a better QB now than his rookie year, but that works in favor of my argument. The Auburn offense that Cam was a part of, by his own testimony, was mindblowingly simple. He didn't seem ready at all coming out and he went to a very awful roster. Not only did he enjoy some success early on, but he has grown into a better QB despite the team doing an awful job of acquiring offensive support for him. Not every QB is going to crumble under adversity like David Carr and Blaine Gabbert.

Yes, but you're still taking the risk that Mariota won't. And I'm sick of taking risks with our top picks and ALWAYS having them blow up in our faces. For once, I'd like to do the smart and less risky thing given our history with taking risks. :/

Quote:
I really don't know what RGIII has to do with this. He's just now coming back into the same player as he was. Not everybody is Adrian Peterson. It took time for RGIII to get back to 100% after his knee injuries. RGIII was also a pretty surefire prospect so I don't really agree with him being in this conversation to begin with.

My point is that he's struggling to actually be a QB without his running ability. He can't stand in the pocket and make accurate throws like a QB is supposed to. He needs his running ability to keep defenders sagging off. It's clear that he can't make tight throws now. Even Pierre Garcon started to get sick of it. He needs his running ability to be a good passer and QB. I don't want a QB like that and that is a very real concern with Mariota. Yes, he appears to be an accurate passer, but let's be honest, half of his passes are screes, a lot of them check downs, and when he goes deep his guys are almost always super open because of how fast they are and the fact they get a head start because they have to make sure Mariota doesn't run the ball.

JagsFanInNY wrote:
I just want to get back in here and expand upon my thoughts regarding Clowney and Mariota. Based upon what I think Vino thinks I was saying, I feel the need to clarify my stance a bit.

Assuming Teddy Bridgewater went to TB with #1 overall, the Jaguars would have the choice of Marcus Mariota or Jadaveon Clowney, neither of whom would be a reach in my opinion. Clowney is the #1 prospect in this draft and he could very well be the pick at #1 if Tampa Bay was to decide Glennon warrants getting another year to prove himself (and with Jameis Winston very possibly making his way to the NFL in 2015, it is a very smart move to consider).

As for Mariota, he is not a reach because of the position he plays. When I assess players with regard to draft position, the position they play is definitely a factor. The most talented punter in the world is not going to be more of a reach in say the 3rd round than a fairly talented collegiate QB whose major knock is being very short. Mariota in my opinion would probably be worth a pick in the 5-10 ranger if not for the fact he is as talented a player as he is at the QB position.

Having said that, I think when you consider the specific situation of this team, both Mariota and Clowney possess less value than the picks this team could acquire in a trade with a team looking to move up to get Mariota/Clowney

I wouldn't have problem taking Mariota top 10 in general just because he has a lot of upside. I just don't think he is worth a top 2 pick for a team who needs a QB NOW and is a dumpster fire. Mariota should sit for a year especially since he'll be coming out as a [inappropriate/removed] sophomore if he declares this year.
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Adrenaline_Flux


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 12:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vino wrote:
I didn't mean Clowney wasn't worth a top 2 pick there. I meant we shouldn't go out and draft these guys just because everyone says that we should. I consider Mariota a reach for a top 2 pick, but not Clowney. I just think it would be more worth it to us to shore up more picks than draft Clowney who wouldn't be near the solution to all our problems. We could draft other pass rushers in this draft who have a lot of potential and would be steals and have plenty more picks to us than draft one DE. I don't care what anyone says about Clowney being to defense what Luck was to offense last year. This isn't the NBA where one or two guys can entirely turn your team around.


Sorry, I typically take people by what they actually say unless I know them to have meant otherwise. There's no guarantee that we'd be able to get an adequate trade out of the #2 spot. You speak later about not wanting to make risky selections... all of those "other pass rushers" are riskier than Clowney.

Quote:
At most Mariota is given one read to make himself while all the other reads are given to Mariota by the Oregon staff. I'm probably being generous to say he makes even one read himself other than to decide whether to run the ball or not. I think Johnny Manziel is given more responsibilities in TAMU's spread offense than Mariota is given. Mariota's physical abilities open up Oregon's offense a lot, but that's it. It's his physical abilities that is the catalyst, the mental aspect of his game is not what opens up the offense. And that hardly translates to the NFL where the QB is expected to make his own reads and their ability to do that is what separates a lot of the good QBs from the mediocre and bad ones.


How do you have special knowledge of Mariota's responsibilities? Do you sit in on Oregon meetings? From everything I've seen, Mariota understands the game of football.

Quote:
That "quick" aspect you mentioned is exactly why Mariota never learned how to go through progressions properly. I explained it in the post, in the Oregon offense he either screen passes it, checks it down to the flat, or takes off running if no one is open and the linebackers are sagging. As you said, the Oregon offense is more complex than it appears and is based on a lot of situational plays, but for the QB the plays themselves are really simple. Now, the fact Mariota was able to remember all the situational aspects of the system and know what to do with the reads his coaches gives him does mean it's possible that he can learn a system, but that's not the same as being able to make your own reads and take your time and go through progressions. I'm not saying he won't be able to one day, but it will take him time and imo he won't be ready to start day one.


There's no evidence to suggest that he'll struggle with a conventional offense. There have been plenty of "non-conventional" QBs to transition to the pro game well and plenty of pro prospects to struggle adapting to the pro game.

Quote:
Yes, but you're still taking the risk that Mariota won't. And I'm sick of taking risks with our top picks and ALWAYS having them blow up in our faces. For once, I'd like to do the smart and less risky thing given our history with taking risks. :/


QB fear is real. Unless it's an Andrew Luck or a Teddy Bridgewater, you're never going to feel completely safe taking a QB. Those type of QBs don't come around all the time, though Jameis Winston may be one of them. However, there's no guarantee that we'd get Winston.

Also, it's kind of funny to hear that we've taken too many risks. Our issue under Gene Smith is that we played the draft WAY too safe and that blew up in our face. Why did that happen? Because here's the best kept secret: there isn't a safe selection in the NFL draft. You can minimize risk, but when that fails not only do you miss out on superstars, but your "sure base hit" is an out as well.

Quote:
My point is that he's struggling to actually be a QB without his running ability. He can't stand in the pocket and make accurate throws like a QB is supposed to. He needs his running ability to keep defenders sagging off. It's clear that he can't make tight throws now. Even Pierre Garcon started to get sick of it. He needs his running ability to be a good passer and QB. I don't want a QB like that and that is a very real concern with Mariota. Yes, he appears to be an accurate passer, but let's be honest, half of his passes are screes, a lot of them check downs, and when he goes deep his guys are almost always super open because of how fast they are and the fact they get a head start because they have to make sure Mariota doesn't run the ball.


I don't agree with any of this. It all sounds like a strung-narrative from a national media conglomerate. RGIII wasn't a tuck-it-first-then-run QB in college and he really hasn't been that way in the NFL aside from designed plays called by his coaches. His knee was pretty much completely ravaged. Not everybody is a robot like AP.
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 4:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vino wrote:
My point is that you're taking a risk assuming Mariota will be able to adjust to the NFL like those guys. Is he rally worth that risk when we have so many other spots on the roster to fix? If he ends up a bust his first year because he's not ready to pick up a pro style offense then that will be ANOTHER top 1st round pick wasted. I don't think it's a good idea to send a QB who is not prohibitively NFL ready to a dumpster fire like our team. It could ruin him. He's a project just like Gabbert was, and while his ceiling and floor are higher than Gabbert's there's no guarantee he will be able to pick up as a starter immediately. Bridgewater is the only guy in this draft who you know will be able to be your QB from day one.

And I'm saying RGIII is struggling right now without his ability to run. What I'm saying is that without his threat to run, his deficiencies are much more apparent. You can tell he's not used to defenses playing him like an ordinary QB and he has a hard time making tight throws now that teams don't play off their receivers as much. This goes to my point that he won offensive rookie of the year because of his ability to run, not because he was really that great of a pure QB. Yes, running factors into QB play, but I don't value it as much as a lot of people do right now. It's a gimmick to me. If you keep running your QB like that eventually he's going to get his head taken off or knees busted and then what? And what I've seen from a lot of these runners is that once you take that element away from them they're not good passers anymore because they can't fit balls into tighter windows.

All of these things are questions with Mariota and we can't risk it. We can't risk yet another top pick being a bust or draft a QB that should sit a year and start them.
Then my question is if Mariota isn't the answer, then who is? Are we going to sit here for a decade waiting for the #1 pick in a year with a once in a generation QB before we pull the trigger? Are we going to keep trying for the #1 overall pick over and over again until we finally get it in a year with a Teddy Bridgewater type prospect? Take a look at the quarterbacks coming out. Aside from #1 picks (and even most of them of them are included), they all have question marks or deficiencies in their ceilings. Eli Manning was one of the best prospects we've seen in the 2000's and he struggled adjusting. And the longer we wait, the more pieces we're going to have in place and the better our team record is going to be, which means that we will continue to put ourselves further and further away from a top QB. Can we afford to spend the next decade being what the Browns, Cards, most teams in the AFC East, Redskins, and others have been for the past decade (and sometimes more); just teams floundering because they never had a shot at a QB?

If you have a shot at a top QB, you take it, because those opportunities don't come around every year for most teams. And if you pass on one, you're destined to be a middling franchise.
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Tugboat


Joined: 30 Mar 2011
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 6:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Vino wrote:
I didn't mean Clowney wasn't worth a top 2 pick there. I meant we shouldn't go out and draft these guys just because everyone says that we should. I consider Mariota a reach for a top 2 pick, but not Clowney. I just think it would be more worth it to us to shore up more picks than draft Clowney who wouldn't be near the solution to all our problems. We could draft other pass rushers in this draft who have a lot of potential and would be steals and have plenty more picks to us than draft one DE. I don't care what anyone says about Clowney being to defense what Luck was to offense last year. This isn't the NBA where one or two guys can entirely turn your team around.


I kind of understand where you're coming from with this bit. But it's a tricky thing.

A guy like Clowney is the sort of player who can potentially completely alter the composition and impact of your defensive front in one fell swoop. But at the same time, like you're kinf of suggesting, i don't think Jadeveon Clowney alone is transforming our team's record drastically.

Grabbing a whole bunch of guys at all sorts of positions by trading down in the 1st round and patching lots of holes...that's the kind of thing that might just improve our record the following year enough to miss out on the 'top QB prospect' once again. That's a depressing notion.

What Clowney could potentially afford this team, if the situation ends up as awful as the proposed 'No Teddy' scenario, is a 'mulligan' on tanking for that 'can't miss QB prospect'...while still getting ourselves an absolute monster franchise cornerstone on the defensive side of the ball. A do-over on getting our QB in 2015.

Basically, if you go deep into building a 'complete defense' this year; one that can really turn the tide for the Jaguars next year, and you actually succeed...you're basically shooting yourself in the foot as far as getting that elusive 'franchise QB'. Clowney is one player, and while he has the potential to be a gamebreaker with the right personnel around him...picking him as a 'stand alone' on the defensive side, isn't likely to snag us a huge amount of wins all by his lonesome in his rookie year.

It almost seems counter-intuitive, but i really do think that drafting the BEST defensive player, as opposed to a few 'lesser players in the 1st+2nd round' would be more likely to put us in a position to 'suck more' next year. If that's what it comes down to. And down the line, Clowney represents the sort of player who can be a total gamebreaker, alongside a proper 'team' on both sides of the ball. That proverbial piece to get a team 'over the hump'. The difference-maker between two good teams (as one might find in the playoffs one day).
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Tugboat


Joined: 30 Mar 2011
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 7:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

As far as Mariota goes, i still really don't know what to make of him. There are a lot of things to like, obviously...but there are a lot of things that concern me, obviously.

I keep coming back to thinking that he's probably going to be coming into the NFL at a similar sort of level to Colin Kaepernick 1 year in. At the beginning of the year he took over from Alex Smith (not his rookie year where he sat). There are tools there, some obvious natural ability as a passer, and the accuracy is there when the reads are kept to a minimum and the running ability is there as a safety net.

Which leaves me wondering...what happens if you parachute a guy at that stage in his development into a situation that isn't a Superbowl Calibre team like the Niners? We don't have a top-3 sort of defense, we don't have a top-5 O-Line, we don't have a top-5 sort of running game. And realistically, we don't have any of that next year either, no matter who our QB is. So where would that leave a guy like Mariota? I mean, we're even seeing Kaepernick this year...despite Roman being an excellent and very accommodating OC who worked to Kaeps strengths extremely well in his debut season...struggling a bit when called upon to be a pure 'pocket passer'. There have been glitches and oopsies, and as they've reverted a bit to the more 'simplistic' system the results have started to come back to them. But it's a concern for me. And i don't think Vino is totally off base suggesting that a QB like Mariota is exponentially more risky for a team as lacking as ours, as he would be for a 'better' team right now.


And the weirdest conclusion i can come to is that: at least in the immediate future, in a lot of ways the Bucs might be better off with a guy like Mariota, while Teddy would be a better fit for where Jacksonville is at as a franchise. Mariota offers the possibility of that real X-Factor for a team like Tampa that has a lot of 'win now' sort of talent on big contracts. I think they're a lot closer to being a good team than we are. They have the makings of a very good defense, they have great offensive weapons like V-Jax and a lot invested in the O-Line, and they have the Muscle Hamster and that running game already set to take pressure off a young QB next year. I think Mariota could have a Kaepernick-like effect on that team, as the real deal Kaep did for the 49ers mid-season...that huge 'spark' that ignites a team. Teddy, for me is more of the 'long-term' investment. Yes, i think he'll be able to jump right in day 1 and do well, i think he'll make the team that selects him better. But he's more future Tom Brady than immediate RGIII. In the long term, i have zero doubts that he'll be the 'better' QB...and there is substantially less risk attached. But Mariota does have that wildcard potential that in the right scenario...maybe that's lightning in a bottle. Especially when you consider that Tampa is going to be shopping for a new coach+staff, that could be tailor fit to what Mariota does.
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thebeyonder


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PostPosted: Thu Nov 07, 2013 10:19 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

If Teddy isn't there, I think the jags should take Clowney in the first and Boyd/Mettenberger/Carr/Murray in the 2nd, in that order.
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