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Early Impressions Of The '12 and '13 Draft Classes
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TomRalph


Joined: 03 Apr 2009
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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:25 pm    Post subject: Early Impressions Of The '12 and '13 Draft Classes Reply with quote

2012:

Chandler Jones
Dont'a Hightower
Tavon Wilson
Jake Bequette
Nate Ebner
Alfonzo Dennard
Jeremy Ebert

2013:

Jamie Collins
Aaron Dobson
Logan Ryan
Duron Harmon
Josh Boyce
Michael Buchanon
Steve Beauharnais


I know this is very early in terms of evaluating a draft class, but looking at how the drafts have turned out so far. They are looking pretty darn abysmal. Considering the picks we had at our disposal in 2012, we haven't really come out smelling like roses, Chandler Jones was a tremendous pick, but as of now, Hightower is looking like a bad pick, Tavon Wilson was a WTF pick then, and has proven to be a terrible pick, Bequette doesn't play, Ebner is a waster roster spot and Ebert isn't on the team. Essentially, a draft with 2 1st Round Picks, and 2 2nd Round Picks and we came out with only 2 high level starters (Chandler, Fonz)

2013 cannot be evaluated as a final evaluation, but so far, this class is not looking great - Jamie Collins can't get on the field, even when Mayo is injured and Spikes is a liability in the passing game and Hightower is stinking it up. Aaron Dobson can't catch a cold and looks like a Taylor Price clone (in terms of ability to produce at the NFL level) Logan Ryan seems like an average Nickel/Dime, Harmon looks like a career back up, Josh Boyce can't get on the field, even with all the injuries and disconnects. Buchanon looks like a decent 7th Rounder and Beaurharnais hasn't seen the field (I know expectations for 7th Rounders shouldn't be high anyway)

Basically, I think we haven't done as well as we can in these drafts and could come to haunt us in the long run. I hope I can be proved wrong but my hopes aren't as high as they were with other draft classes (2010 and 11) I know I'm jumping the gun here and I expect a lot of backlash on my opinions, but I'd like to see others opinions on how our recent draft classes are performing.

PS. I'm not counting UDFA's in this and I think it is the UDFA's that are outperforming their fellow drafted rookies for the Pats which is a blessing!
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'd give them a solid B to B+. The 2012 class looks pretty good from where I'm sitting. It's way, way too early to begin to comment on the 2013 class but Ryan, Harmon, Dobson and Buchanan have all showed glimpses of NFL ability and there's reason to think Collins/Beauharnais can contribute.

Chandler Jones and Alfonzo Dennard are quality starters (and Jones could be argued to be a budding star) and Hightower IMO is a quality player, even if he's miscast in a coverage role. Sure, Bequette and Wilson look like washouts, but getting 2 bona fide starters from one draft class is a success and when Hightower takes over for Spikes next year, it will be even better.

I'd like to see Dobson and Boyce "get it" and Collins be a rookie sensation but WR's are notoriously slow developing and Collins was known to be raw.
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Sciz


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 6:51 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

You are about to receive a ton of replies about how ridiculous it is to judge a draft class after 7 games. This can be the second.
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mcmurtry86


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:07 pm    Post subject: Re: Rate Our Last 2 Draft Classes Reply with quote

TomRalph wrote:
Aaron Dobson can't catch a cold and looks like a Taylor Price clone (in terms of ability to produce at the NFL level) Logan Ryan seems like an average Nickel/Dime, Harmon looks like a career back up,


This is just ridiculous. There's nothing to say one way or another about the 2 DB's though IMO they've each shown ability when on the field. Are you expecting Ryan to supplant one of the top 3 CB's the roster? He looked solid against the Jets. The Pats haven't used many 3 S sets, but Harmon certainly has been a liability.

Rob Gronkowski's first 7 games in the NFL he put up a staggering 10 catches 101 yards and then almost single handedly lost the team their game in his 8 contest.

I think in general your expectations are way too high for what a successful draft class looks like and specifically with 2013 you're jumping the gun significantly.

I understand the team is undermanned and it's frustrating that the rookies haven't stepped in and lit things up, but it just doesn't work like that. Most rookies league wide do not contribute. And a lot of rookies who look like contributors are doing so out of necessity of playing time more than any real solid level of performance (like Tavon Wilson last year putting up 4 INT's). ''

Given the composition of the roster and the profiles of the players drafted, I can't say I'm surprised or disappointed by the (lack of) results from the 2013 class.
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Deadpulse


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 7:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Tom Ralph, I have no idea why you hate Dobson so much. He isn't all world, but he looks superior to Taylor Price in almost every way.
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Donut


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 9:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Chandler Jones A+ At the time I thought he was a top 15 pick.
Dont'a Hightower B- Solid pick but not a special player. I wasn't a fan predraft or really post draft
Tavon Wilson D He had flashes but he's pretty much done
Jake Bequette F He was poor man's Cunningham.
Nate Ebner D He isn't a DB or a particularly good STer
Alfonzo Dennard A Steal
Jeremy Ebert F I dont even know if he was ever on our PS.

Jamie Collins I think he'll end up as a starter. Freaky athlete.
Aaron Dobson I don't think he'll ever have very reliable hands and he isn't great off the jam.
Logan Ryan dime back. I dont think he has the speed to ever be a starter.
Duron Harmon I like Harmon. He's a rich man's James Sanders. I think he'll be our starter next yr next to McCourty.
Josh Boyce We'll have to see he fell way to far behind because he was hurt.
Michael Buchanan I think he'll end up as a good enough DE to start. He'll catch his body up next yr because he lost a lot of weight because of his jaw and I think he'll be very good.
Steve Beauharnais He looks like he has more than just a STer upside.

Others:
T.J. If he gets healthy I think he can contribute.
Mark Harrison I really liked at Rutgers and I think he'll be a useful weapon in the future.
Kenbrell Thompkins he's going to improve and I think he'll be a solid #2 WR in the future.

I'd give A- to 2012. I think Dennard and Hightower are solid starters. Chandler I think he's going to be a superstar HOF caliber player. Loved him at Syracuse and love him in NFL.

2013 is too early. You draft for the next 3 yrs and most WRs aren't great on rookies. Buchanan I think is a steal and Harmon is growing on me. I still am not a big fan of Ryan or Dobson.

Taylor Price and Dobson are very different. Dobson is a long strider and not very strong compared to Price. Price was strong of jams and was great at those slants in preseason games.

But I liked 2010 and 2011 drafts in general a lot more than the last 2. 2012 I was just in love w/ Chandler Jones' as a prospect. Last yr I liked a bunch of mid rounders but none of them I thought were amazing prospects. I though Rhodes and Datone Jones would be solid starters for us and for WRs thought Allen and Bailey were guys that's be ready very quickly. But I wouldn't give up on any of our 2013 people left(especially WRs the 2nd year is usually more indicating of the future). Chris Jones I do like as a rotational DT.
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NextBigThing


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PostPosted: Tue Oct 22, 2013 10:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Deadpulse wrote:
Tom Ralph, I have no idea why you hate Dobson so much. He isn't all world, but he looks superior to Taylor Price in almost every way.


Its a response to my dobson pimpage.
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TomRalph


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 4:12 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Sciz wrote:
You are about to receive a ton of replies about how ridiculous it is to judge a draft class after 7 games. This can be the second.


The thread was mainly aimed at the 2012 class rather than this current crop of rookies. I think it's due to Hightower's struggles and a seemingly low floor as well as the total flops we drafted in the next few rounds following the expensive trade ups.

I know people want to jump on me for including the '13 class in this thread, but I've observed a lack of immediate production, despite opportunities for Dobson and Boyce (early on) and low snap amounts for the other 'high' picks in that draft. I want to compare this year to last with regards to Logan Ryan, last year, Dennard, despite being a 7th Rounder, broke into the starting lineup (at around Week 6 or 7 IIRC) and played at a high level and has been a starter ever since. Ryan, a 3rd Round pick, couldn't supplant terribad outside CB Kyle Arrington on Sunday as a starter.

Maybe I'm being pessimistic with regards to the '13 class, but from what I've seen so far, it doesn't look like a class that we look at and say 'that's the class that went on to provide the talent for a successful team' 5 years down the line. I want to believe that all these guys will progress exponentially over their first 3 years in the league but as of right now, I'm not that confident at all.

PS. I suppose I should have titled the thread 'Early Impressions of the '12 and '13 Draft Classes'...
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TomRalph


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 4:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Deadpulse wrote:
Tom Ralph, I have no idea why you hate Dobson so much. He isn't all world, but he looks superior to Taylor Price in almost every way.


LIS before, Dobson is only being afforded opportunities because he doesn't have Moss, Welker, Hernandez and Gronkowski keeping him out of the starting line up or even seeing significant snaps like Taylor Price did. I bet if we had the roster turnover prior to Price being drafted as well as injuries to our top 2 targets, he would have been forced into the line up and would have been just as productive (and inconsistent) as Dobson has.
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Deadpulse


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 11:35 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TomRalph wrote:
Deadpulse wrote:
Tom Ralph, I have no idea why you hate Dobson so much. He isn't all world, but he looks superior to Taylor Price in almost every way.


LIS before, Dobson is only being afforded opportunities because he doesn't have Moss, Welker, Hernandez and Gronkowski keeping him out of the starting line up or even seeing significant snaps like Taylor Price did. I bet if we had the roster turnover prior to Price being drafted as well as injuries to our top 2 targets, he would have been forced into the line up and would have been just as productive (and inconsistent) as Dobson has.


Dobson has a lot more ability than Price and a lot more potential. I don't think Price would be doing ANYTHING if in the same situation. In fact, if he was here now and Dobson wasn't, Josh Boyce would be playing.
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NextBigThing


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 11:41 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

TomRalph wrote:
Deadpulse wrote:
Tom Ralph, I have no idea why you hate Dobson so much. He isn't all world, but he looks superior to Taylor Price in almost every way.


LIS before, Dobson is only being afforded opportunities because he doesn't have Moss, Welker, Hernandez and Gronkowski keeping him out of the starting line up or even seeing significant snaps like Taylor Price did. I bet if we had the roster turnover prior to Price being drafted as well as injuries to our top 2 targets, he would have been forced into the line up and would have been just as productive (and inconsistent) as Dobson has.


A 6'3 guy with 4.40 speed, fantastic hops, excellent agility & quickness for his size, good ball skills and highly touted hands is a fantastic comparison for Price.

Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing

What were Dez Bryant or Calvin Johnson - who was starting - doing at the same point of their careers?

Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing

TR gets more and more ridiculous, absurd, and flat out obnoxious with every post these days it seems. Dobson FTW
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TomRalph


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 12:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

NextBigThing wrote:
TomRalph wrote:
Deadpulse wrote:
Tom Ralph, I have no idea why you hate Dobson so much. He isn't all world, but he looks superior to Taylor Price in almost every way.


LIS before, Dobson is only being afforded opportunities because he doesn't have Moss, Welker, Hernandez and Gronkowski keeping him out of the starting line up or even seeing significant snaps like Taylor Price did. I bet if we had the roster turnover prior to Price being drafted as well as injuries to our top 2 targets, he would have been forced into the line up and would have been just as productive (and inconsistent) as Dobson has.


A 6'3 guy with 4.40 speed, fantastic hops, excellent agility & quickness for his size, good ball skills and highly touted hands is a fantastic comparison for Price.

Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing

What were Dez Bryant or Calvin Johnson - who was starting - doing at the same point of their careers?

Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing

TR gets more and more ridiculous, absurd, and flat out obnoxious with every post these days it seems. Dobson FTW


6'3" - 6'1"
220lbs - 210lbs
4.42 - 4.40
4.33 - 4.34 Short Shuttle
7.19 - 6.82 3-Cone
35" - 37" Vertical

There is nothing totally obvious separating Price from Dobson in terms of athletic ability. They both played outside the top conferences in college and were very raw coming into the NFL.

Dobson I agree is slightly more prototypical however, but I believe the point still stands.
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NextBigThing


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 3:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Laughing None of those numbers track suddenness with the pads on, that is a genuine eye test.

Nobody in their right mind would compare Dobson to Price on any level.
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24isthelaw


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 5:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I'm feeling pretty good about the 2013 rookie class. On one hand, no one has really asserted themselves as a good player. But on the other hand, no one has asserted themselves as a bad player either.

I know Jones and Dennard looked like budding stars and Hightower did okay. But Ebert didn't even make the roster. Tavon Wilson was doing the dance known as the Sergio Brown. It was already understood Ebner will never play defense. And Bequette's presence in Foxborough could be neither confirmed nor denied.

On the other hand, this year basically everyone has flashed talent so far. Chris Jones looks like a keeper, Vellano's been okay himself. Buchanan has showed his bend and athleticism. Ryan and Harmon have looked like they belong, with Ryan visibly improving from his first go and making a few plays in the process. Dobson and Thompkins have shown signs of go-to talent (marred by lots of drops, and in AD's case, a few mental gaffes, but the talent is clearly there). The guys closest to M.I.A. are Collins and Boyce, and even then there's some substantial optimism about them developmentally.

Looks like a very deep rookie class to me.
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Deadpulse


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 23, 2013 5:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I honestly believe the last two drafts have been very successful. No one has really come in and lit it up right away, but that's what you get when you don't pick in the top 15. We got 3 starters out of 2012, that's a huge win in my book, 3 starters on one of the better defenses in the league this year before Fork and Mayo went down. So far in this past draft Dobson, Harmon, Ryan, and Buchanon are all contributing and some even making starts. Again, that is huge especially so early in their careers.
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