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turtle28


Joined: 21 Nov 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:37 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

mike23md wrote:
2nd round: Yawin Smallwood, ILB, Connecticut
3rd round: Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
4th round: Brandon Cooks, WR, Oregon State
5th round: Cameron Fleming, OT, Stanford
6th round: Beau Allen, NT, Wisconsin
7th round: T.J. Jones, WR, Notre Dame

Our offensive draft picks on the interior OL needs to step in and take over. LeReibus and Gettis need to get in there. Chester is just not cutting it and neither is Lichtensteiger. Both susceptible to the pass rush and are not capable of reacting to blitzes.

In the run they are fine, but seriously. Gotta see what the young guys can do. Maybe even put Tom Compton at RT and see what he's got.

Hall has earned his keep and should be kept around.

Wilson and Biggers need to go. Murphy would be camp fodder. Rambo and Thomas need to really work hard this off season and be productive tandem for the future.

If we lose Orakpo, look for Jackson Jeffcoat to step in. Better 3-4 suited pass rusher.

We are going to have a lot of room for free agents. I can feel that we are going to get a WR, a CB and potentially a S. While also adding a few key vets on the OL and DL.
I'd rather see a 3-4DE in round 3 and a CB late to compete with Minifield and Crawford, if we're adding a cb in free agency, I don't see us taking a Cb in round 3 because we'll have Hall and Amerson also.

Other than that though, I like what you did and I agree with your last paragraph.
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Marcus21


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 4:50 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
mike23md wrote:
2nd round: Yawin Smallwood, ILB, Connecticut
3rd round: Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
4th round: Brandon Cooks, WR, Oregon State
5th round: Cameron Fleming, OT, Stanford
6th round: Beau Allen, NT, Wisconsin
7th round: T.J. Jones, WR, Notre Dame

Our offensive draft picks on the interior OL needs to step in and take over. LeReibus and Gettis need to get in there. Chester is just not cutting it and neither is Lichtensteiger. Both susceptible to the pass rush and are not capable of reacting to blitzes.

In the run they are fine, but seriously. Gotta see what the young guys can do. Maybe even put Tom Compton at RT and see what he's got.

Hall has earned his keep and should be kept around.

Wilson and Biggers need to go. Murphy would be camp fodder. Rambo and Thomas need to really work hard this off season and be productive tandem for the future.

If we lose Orakpo, look for Jackson Jeffcoat to step in. Better 3-4 suited pass rusher.

We are going to have a lot of room for free agents. I can feel that we are going to get a WR, a CB and potentially a S. While also adding a few key vets on the OL and DL.
I'd rather see a 3-4DE in round 3 and a CB late to compete with Minifield and Crawford, if we're adding a cb in free agency, I don't see us taking a Cb in round 3 because we'll have Hall and Amerson also.

Other than that though, I like what you did and I agree with your last paragraph.


I am putting no stock in Chase Minifield. He cant beat out EJ Biggers or Josh Wilson. I dont think he will make this team! I think we should draft a CB and sign one in FA!! Also Justin Gilbert is one of the best return men in College football!!
As I have mentioned before I like taking a NT and moving Cofield to end!! I dont think Bowen will be around next year, and we need guys that can eat up blockers!!!
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 5:15 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Marcus21 wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
mike23md wrote:
2nd round: Yawin Smallwood, ILB, Connecticut
3rd round: Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
4th round: Brandon Cooks, WR, Oregon State
5th round: Cameron Fleming, OT, Stanford
6th round: Beau Allen, NT, Wisconsin
7th round: T.J. Jones, WR, Notre Dame

Our offensive draft picks on the interior OL needs to step in and take over. LeReibus and Gettis need to get in there. Chester is just not cutting it and neither is Lichtensteiger. Both susceptible to the pass rush and are not capable of reacting to blitzes.

In the run they are fine, but seriously. Gotta see what the young guys can do. Maybe even put Tom Compton at RT and see what he's got.

Hall has earned his keep and should be kept around.

Wilson and Biggers need to go. Murphy would be camp fodder. Rambo and Thomas need to really work hard this off season and be productive tandem for the future.

If we lose Orakpo, look for Jackson Jeffcoat to step in. Better 3-4 suited pass rusher.

We are going to have a lot of room for free agents. I can feel that we are going to get a WR, a CB and potentially a S. While also adding a few key vets on the OL and DL.
I'd rather see a 3-4DE in round 3 and a CB late to compete with Minifield and Crawford, if we're adding a cb in free agency, I don't see us taking a Cb in round 3 because we'll have Hall and Amerson also.

Other than that though, I like what you did and I agree with your last paragraph.


I am putting no stock in Chase Minifield. He cant beat out EJ Biggers or Josh Wilson. I dont think he will make this team! I think we should draft a CB and sign one in FA!! Also Justin Gilbert is one of the best return men in College football!!
That's true, I didn't think about that.
Quote:
As I have mentioned before I like taking a NT and moving Cofield to end!! I dont think Bowen will be around next year, and we need guys that can eat up blockers!!!
Bowen is going to be around, we restructured his deal and owe him $. If we release him all that dead $ will come due on the release date. I see him being here.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 7:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Marcus21 wrote:
If im not mistaken Shanny doesnt sign FAs in their 30s. I know we signed Nick Barnett last year, but that was a desperate move after Robinson went down! I wouldnt even consider FAs that are 29 and over for that reason!
just because he didn't in 2011, doesn't mean he won't. He certainly made moves to add 30 year olds in 2010 and did with the Broncos.

Quote:
I think we will target guys like Sam Sheilds, Jarius Byrd, Aquib Talib, Hakeem Nicks..etc because they are young! The concern I have is giving these guys top money! Nicks and Byrd are going to want huge money, but you guys know Snyder!!! He doesnt mind to spend money!
True, I think Talib is a pipe dream though because he's played so well for the Pats, they aren't going to let him go.

Quote:
I know alot of you guys want DEs....I would like to see us invest in a bigger space eating NT and slide Cofield to end! I think Cofield has done an amazing job at NT, but I feel he might play even better at end!! I really like Jenkins because of his ability to play the run! The run D is drastically better since his return! Lets also not forget Carriker will be back in the mix next year which will add depth the Dline!
I just don't see the need to move Cofield from the position where's he's played well for three years now. Upgrading the DE position makes more sense, and I hope Carriker will be back, but all the set backs and multiple surgeries are a concern.

Quote:
We are going to have to find a reliabale slot reciever!! RG3 is really throwing to 2 recievers right now Reed and Garcon. Hankerson gets a few balls, but really we have 2 viable recieving threats! Moss is one of my all time favorites, but he is done!!!! Who ever they find to play the slot needs to be able to return punts and kick offs!!! I have never seen an NFL team with worse special teams!!! Its embarrassing!!
I don't necessarily think whomever they sign or draft to be the slot has to be the return man, but yes, they have to solve both issues. Either through free agency or the draft. My preference is free agency, that's better for a developing qb.

Quote:
The secondary.....OMG what a bag of turds!!!
lmfao! Love it! And it will be my new sign!! Wink

Quote:
Wilson, Biggers, and Murphy have to be up graded. We need to draft a corner and sign one in FA! I think Amerson will be a probowler one day and Hall has earned another contract! We will need to sign a FA safety! Im not sure I would give Byrd a max contract, but the position needs to be upgraded and let Rambo and Thomas develop behind a vet!
+1

Quote:
ILB has to be our 2nd round pick!!! ILB is prolly the most important position in a 34 D, and our are not playing very well!! I like Yawin Smallwood. I guess Christian Jones could play ILB in a 34 even though he has been moved to DE at FSU and plays much better with his hand in the dirt! I wouldnt mind to bring someone in to push Riley...I think his game has slipped a lot this year!!
the most important position in the 3-4 is the NT, then Ilb, then FS. I mean every good or great D has to be strong straight up the middle. You can manufacture pressure, but you can't get past poor NT play, poor ILB play or poor FS play.

Christian Jones was playing great as an MLB. The Seminoles just needed a better pass rush so the moved him there.

Riley has been doing what he does well just fine (stuff the run), he's never going to be a great coverage Ilb.

Riley is leading us in tackles and has a few sacks. He's fine and needs to be re-signed
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Woz


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PostPosted: Mon Nov 11, 2013 11:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Some things to chew on while you're looking at free agency and the draft. With our current roster, we are (ranks are before MNF ended (*)):

OFFENSIVE STATS
Overall
58 of 126 3rd downs converted (46%, 4th)
3 of 8 4th downs converted (38%, 22nd-tied)
59 penalties (15th-tied), 511 yards (17th), 8.66 yards/penalty (15th)
Time of possession 31:48 (8th)
14 fumbles (22nd-tied), 5 lost (9th-tied)
Turnover ratio of 0 (15th-tied)

Passing
210 of 346 (60.7% - 16th best)
2333 yards (7.2 YPC - 14th-tied)
12 TDs (19th-tied)
11 INTs (24th-tied)
128 1st downs (37.0% - 6th)
24 pass plays of 20+ yards or longer (26th-tied)
2 pass plays of 40+ yards or longer (31st)
18 sacks allowed (6th)
81.1 passer rating (21st)

Rushing
269 attempts for 1361 yards (5.1 YPC - 1st-tied)
12 TDs (3rd)
70 1st downs (26.0% - 3rd)
12 rush plays of 20+ yards or longer (3rd)
1 rush play of 40+ yards or longer (8th-tied)


Looking at all this we have a good, but not great offense. It's one of the best in terms of rushing, and while it's not spectacular through the air, it's decent.


DEFENSIVE STATS
Overall
40 of 106 3rd downs converted against (38% - 13th)
7 of 8 4th downs converted against (88% - 31st)
50 penalties (6th-tied), 438 yards (8th), 8.76 yards/penalty (19th)
Time of Possession 28:52 (9th)
8 fumbles forced (29th-tied), 6 recovered (15th-tied)

Passing
210 of 316 (66.5% - 29th)
2473 yards allowed (8.3 YPC - 30th)
19 passing TDs allowed (28th-tied)
10 INTs (18th-tied)
133 passing 1st downs allowed (42.1% - 32nd (no one else is above 40%))
37 pass plays of 20+ yards allowed (28th)
3 pass plays of 40+ yards allowed (4th-tied)
22 sacks (20th)
Opponent passer rating 98.8 (27th)

Rushing
237 attempts for 1024 yards (4.3 YPC - 22nd-tied)
12 rushing TDs allowed (29th-tied)
62 rushing 1st downs allowed (26.2% - 30th)
5 rushing plays of 20+ yards (13th-tied)
1 rushing play of 40+ yards (15th-tied)


That, folks, is a defense that stinks.

Let's consider this: 237 rushing attempts + 316 pass attempts is 533 plays (ignoring penalties). 62 rushing 1st downs + 133 passing 1st downs is 195 first downs. This means, that on plays that don't involve penalties, our opponents have gotten a first down 35.26% of the time. Yes, more than one out of every three plays has netted opposing teams a fresh set of downs.

That's ridiculous.

Now, on the face of it, our atrocious passing stats say that we should look to a corner and free safety.

That would be a mistake.

If our passing defense was bad but our run defense was good, that might be the right play. No, they're both bad. That means the problem is up front.

We know that Fletcher is going to retire (well, we don't but it is a pretty safe bet). We know that we're not getting any real pressure on opposing quarterbacks. So we need to focus on the front seven. Pressure is an absolute must. I would say look for a 3-4 nose but, A) Cofield has been decent, and B) the market for NTs in both free agency and the draft looks pretty tapped out. So, personally, I would focus on the ends. Yes, Carriker might come back, but he's been gone for so long that he is a massive question mark. Bowen and Jenkins are alright but can be replaced. Inside linebacker is probably the biggest weakness.

If you're looking for a 2nd or 3rd wideout, unless the value is really great, that's probably not the right call. Free agency is probably where we would go. That said, the more I think about it, the more I think we don't go after a big name wide receiver. Think about it: we have our #1 in Garcon. Why do we need another big name? Also, would they want to come here to try and become the #1? I could see possibly taking a chance on Maclin because of the upside in the reclamation project. Britt is absolutely laughable as an option. The guy is a complete chucklehead; he makes Fred Davis look like Mother Teresa.

If I thought this front office would draft an offensive linemen highly, I would make that my priority in any predictions. However, I just don't see it happening. We're going to be built from pieces and parts. The funny thing is that if we stuck to our strengths (the run game), this would be okay. The problem is we're going pass happy at all the wrong times.

I'm admittedly not the best in terms of picking out collegiate talent; I'll leave that to others. However, if I knew talent, I think I would focus on the defense first and foremost. Now, if I thought a guy would drop to me because of ... whatever reason, then sure, perhaps I would take a wide receiver or a stud right tackle. I just don't see that as being the best value pick (for the WR) or likely to happen (for the RT).



(*) Yes I know some of this is in another thread. I just wanted to move it here to make my point. Plus I added some.
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Woz


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 1:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Some have argued for safety help. It depends on whether you
A) think Meriweather stays with the team (while his contract extends through 2015, the 2014 and 2015 seasons are voidable ... I don't know the terms),
B) Reed Doughty re-signs with the team (I think if the staff is interested, he'd stay), and
C) whether you think Phillip Thomas and Bacarri Rambo can be starters (I don't know if we have an answer there one way or the other at this point).

Looking at the starting free safety market, there's a number of names in theory out there in 2014: Jairus Byrd would be the biggest, but there's also Malcolm Jenkins, and Donte Whitner. At the cheaper end of the spectrum, you also have Kendrick Lewis, Mike Mitchell, Ryan Mundy, and Darian Stewart. I'm not really considering Charles Woodson (37) or Ryan Clark (34, plus I doubt he'd come back), but they're out there as well.

I did say "in theory" for the above because some of those might be re-signed.

If for some reason we felt we needed a starting strong safety (we let Doughty walk and have no faith in Thomas and Rambo?), we still got some options: Chris Clemons, Bernard Pollard, and T.J. Ward. We could also look at Nate Allen, Antoine Bethea, James Ihedigbo, or Major Wright. Finally, from the "over the hill" department, there's Yeremiah Bell (35) and Quintin Mikell (33). Doughty's 31 for comparison's sake.
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Doc Draper


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 2:40 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Woz wrote:
Some things to chew on while you're looking at free agency and the draft. With our current roster, we are (ranks are before MNF ended (*)):

OFFENSIVE STATS
Overall
58 of 126 3rd downs converted (46%, 4th)
3 of 8 4th downs converted (38%, 22nd-tied)
59 penalties (15th-tied), 511 yards (17th), 8.66 yards/penalty (15th)
Time of possession 31:48 (8th)
14 fumbles (22nd-tied), 5 lost (9th-tied)
Turnover ratio of 0 (15th-tied)

Passing
210 of 346 (60.7% - 16th best)
2333 yards (7.2 YPC - 14th-tied)
12 TDs (19th-tied)
11 INTs (24th-tied)
128 1st downs (37.0% - 6th)
24 pass plays of 20+ yards or longer (26th-tied)
2 pass plays of 40+ yards or longer (31st)
18 sacks allowed (6th)
81.1 passer rating (21st)

Rushing
269 attempts for 1361 yards (5.1 YPC - 1st-tied)
12 TDs (3rd)
70 1st downs (26.0% - 3rd)
12 rush plays of 20+ yards or longer (3rd)
1 rush play of 40+ yards or longer (8th-tied)


Looking at all this we have a good, but not great offense. It's one of the best in terms of rushing, and while it's not spectacular through the air, it's decent.


DEFENSIVE STATS
Overall
40 of 106 3rd downs converted against (38% - 13th)
7 of 8 4th downs converted against (88% - 31st)
50 penalties (6th-tied), 438 yards (8th), 8.76 yards/penalty (19th)
Time of Possession 28:52 (9th)
8 fumbles forced (29th-tied), 6 recovered (15th-tied)

Passing
210 of 316 (66.5% - 29th)
2473 yards allowed (8.3 YPC - 30th)
19 passing TDs allowed (28th-tied)
10 INTs (18th-tied)
133 passing 1st downs allowed (42.1% - 32nd (no one else is above 40%))
37 pass plays of 20+ yards allowed (28th)
3 pass plays of 40+ yards allowed (4th-tied)
22 sacks (20th)
Opponent passer rating 98.8 (27th)

Rushing
237 attempts for 1024 yards (4.3 YPC - 22nd-tied)
12 rushing TDs allowed (29th-tied)
62 rushing 1st downs allowed (26.2% - 30th)
5 rushing plays of 20+ yards (13th-tied)
1 rushing play of 40+ yards (15th-tied)


That, folks, is a defense that stinks.

Let's consider this: 237 rushing attempts + 316 pass attempts is 533 plays (ignoring penalties). 62 rushing 1st downs + 133 passing 1st downs is 195 first downs. This means, that on plays that don't involve penalties, our opponents have gotten a first down 35.26% of the time. Yes, more than one out of every three plays has netted opposing teams a fresh set of downs.

That's ridiculous.

Now, on the face of it, our atrocious passing stats say that we should look to a corner and free safety.

That would be a mistake.

If our passing defense was bad but our run defense was good, that might be the right play. No, they're both bad. That means the problem is up front.

We know that Fletcher is going to retire (well, we don't but it is a pretty safe bet). We know that we're not getting any real pressure on opposing quarterbacks. So we need to focus on the front seven. Pressure is an absolute must. I would say look for a 3-4 nose but, A) Cofield has been decent, and B) the market for NTs in both free agency and the draft looks pretty tapped out. So, personally, I would focus on the ends. Yes, Carriker might come back, but he's been gone for so long that he is a massive question mark. Bowen and Jenkins are alright but can be replaced. Inside linebacker is probably the biggest weakness.

If you're looking for a 2nd or 3rd wideout, unless the value is really great, that's probably not the right call. Free agency is probably where we would go. That said, the more I think about it, the more I think we don't go after a big name wide receiver. Think about it: we have our #1 in Garcon. Why do we need another big name? Also, would they want to come here to try and become the #1? I could see possibly taking a chance on Maclin because of the upside in the reclamation project. Britt is absolutely laughable as an option. The guy is a complete chucklehead; he makes Fred Davis look like Mother Teresa.

If I thought this front office would draft an offensive linemen highly, I would make that my priority in any predictions. However, I just don't see it happening. We're going to be built from pieces and parts. The funny thing is that if we stuck to our strengths (the run game), this would be okay. The problem is we're going pass happy at all the wrong times.

I'm admittedly not the best in terms of picking out collegiate talent; I'll leave that to others. However, if I knew talent, I think I would focus on the defense first and foremost. Now, if I thought a guy would drop to me because of ... whatever reason, then sure, perhaps I would take a wide receiver or a stud right tackle. I just don't see that as being the best value pick (for the WR) or likely to happen (for the RT).

(*) Yes I know some of this is in another thread. I just wanted to move it here to make my point. Plus I added some.


Fantastic analysis and conclusions. I wonder if the problems on defense is because of a lack of talent, poor coaching schemes and adjustments and/or poor player development. Perhaps all three.

I expect Shanahan will:
1. Fire some of the defensive staff- he does this often to take heat off when his teams underperform. I certainly think our line coach and secondary coaches are disasters and should move on. I don't see him firing his butt boy LB coach ( who also has hired his son too on the redskins coaching staff) remind you of anyone?) I think he's terrible but his long relationship with Shanny will save him. Haslett? I just don't know if he'd fire him. He has more than enough reason this season alone but add in his whole tenure here with poor defense and missteps like earlier when some blogger wrote his candid comments he should go.

So- burney- Fired
Morris- he will see the writing in the wall and take another position
Haslett- 50-50 if he stays or goes
Burns- of course he stays because he's shanahans boy too
slowik- Shanny might even elevate this in incompetent to Coordinator. Or maybe put his wife on staff as coordinator Smile
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tyler735


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Location: Minnesota
PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 3:45 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

@Turtle I'm not going to bother hitting reply to that last message as it is a pain to format/reformat each quote that has been quoted, but I will just touch on a few main points

Your point about Safety. Rambo can be a solid S for us. He has shown improvement each week. He racks up tackles every time he plays. He's still young the game changing plays will likely come with time. Hankerson is in his 3rd year, and you have been going on about how we need to give him more time since it takes time for players to develop...At least stay consistent. Rambo is just a ROOKIE, he has the talent. P. Thomas has had a couple big injuries the past few years, but I'm not ready to give up on him yet as he is also...JUST A ROOKIE. Sometimes players just get unlucky with a couple injuries, you can't just write off a young talented played like that just yet. Merriweather has also made some plays for us. He is fine as long as he learns to avoid helmet to helmet hitting, so we don't get penalized/him suspended.

Regarding the O-line, I very well could change who I draft depending on what the young OG's show. As for Chester, and Kory L, they are terrible. Finding guys who can run block isn't that hard, we will be able to do that, but we need guys that can protect RG3, and Chester/Kory L aren't able to do that. I'm sticking with Anthony Steen as my 3rd round pick at this point because he gives us both talent and versatility at the Guard/Center positions. The 2nd guard Spencer Long, I had us taking is a 7th round pick, at that point it in the draft it is better to take a guy that is BPA and would possibly be able to make an impact on the team. As mentioned it's an early mock draft and is likely to change as the season/off season goes on depending on all sorts of factors including whether the young OG's show something between now and the end of the season.

As for the Dri Archer pick, I was on the fence on that one as well. Best case he replaces Aldrick Robinson, and takes over Kick Return duties, but I definitely wouldn't be heart broken if we went another direction in the 6th round. Just seems like a good spot to get a weapon like that in the draft if he is available as I can't imagine there are a whole lot of better options left in the 6th, but like I said wouldn't be mad if we went in another direction.

As for ILB, I'd rather sign a guy like Akeem and draft Borland in the 5th. Gives us two talented LB's. Neither is going to be an elite ILB, but then again I don't envision really any of the ILB's from this draft class to be a consistent Pro Bowl type talent. I'd rather sign/draft those two, and see what K. Robinson can do this season. Robinson has similar talent to anyone available in this draft, so writing him off before we see what he can do is a waste. Signing Akeem Jordan, or someone with similar in ability via Free Agency, would allow us to have a quality starter, and give us a chance to look at K. Robinson as well. If he can't stay healthy/doesn't play well next season, then I'm all for taking an ILB in the 1st/2nd round next year. Same goes for Safety, if Rambo/P. Thomas don't show much next season, I'm all for going for a Safety in the first couple rounds next year.

As for finding a DE in the 2nd round that can make a difference. Off the top of my head these 3-4 DE's were drafted in similar slots to where we will be picking (We will likely be early 2nd round top 5/top 10 at this point):
Cameron Jordan 24th pick (1st round)
Muhammad Wilkerson 30th pick (1st round)
Cameron Heyward 31st pick (1st round)
Calais Campbell 50th pick (2nd round)
Kendall Reyes 49th pick (2nd round)
Jason Hatcher 92nd pick (3rd round)
Ray Mcdonald 97th pick (3rd round)
Antonio Smith 135th pick (5th round)
Arthur Jones 157th pick (5th round)
Pernell McPhee 165th pick (5th round) (*Switched to OLB this season)
Desmond Bryant (undrafted)

I'm probably missing a couple guys as well, but all of these guys have been considered as top 15 players at 3-4 DE within the past couple seasons, and are better than what we have. Heck your boy Randy Starks that you want us to give a big contract to was a mid 3rd round pick. It really isn't that hard to find a difference making 3-4 DE...obviously we aren't likely going to have the next JJ Watt, but I could see Ra'shede Hageman being a top 10 3-4 DE in his career. Ra'Shede Hageman could definitely go before we pick, but at this point there is a decent possibly he will be available when we pick.

As for Britt, I can see why you'd be against bringing him in because of the character concerns, but I think he will be a very cheap signing. I wouldn't mind going with another cheap veteran WR, but to me a guy like Maclin is risky. I'd love to have Maclin since we need a deep threat if he wasn't coming off the knee injury, but given his style of play which is so reliant on speed/quickness. You don't give a guy a big contract. This looks like one of those typical moves the Skins seem to make all to often. Overpaying for a player that is a questionable signing and having him not pan out/waste tons of cap space. Maclin is going to look to get paid, so don't give me the if we can get him for a reasonable contract line either, he is simply too risky, and we can find a player with similar talents in the draft instead that isn't coming off a serious injury/looking to get paid. Instead of signing Kenny Britt, I wouldn't be opposed to signing Jacoby Jones from the Ravens. Marlon Brown has had a great rookie season, and they still have Torrey Smith, so I don't know if they will bring back Jones. Jacoby Jones would be a very good replacement for Josh Morgan for us, and could give us a legitimate kick returner as well.

I was all for bringing in Nicks before the past few weeks, but Hankerson has started to play a bit better/more consistent, so if he can keep up at a similar pace, I don't really want to bring in Nicks. Couple reasons I don't want Nicks IF Hankerson can continue to play consistent/keep improving. Nicks is not a deep threat, he is a very similar YAC type WR like what we have with Garcon. We either need a WR with some size that can be a redzone/jumpball threat, or a legitimate slot/deep threat. Nicks doesn't really give us either of those. RG3 needs to be able to utilize his deep ball, so bringing in a guy like Mike Davis, who is one of the better deep threats in the draft is a great option for us in the 4th round.

This would give us:
Garcon- Number 1 WR/YAC WR
Hankerson- *Hopefully reliable possession/move the chains type WR
Davis- Slot WR/Deep threat that can play inside and outside when needed.
Jacoby Jones- Downfield Playmaker/Kick Returner

As mentioned above, I don't have my heart set on drafting Dri Archer, just would be good value in the 6th round, but if we sign Jacoby Jones we definitely wouldn't need Archer, since Jones would be our KR, and would give us a solid playmaking WR as well.

Not sure how many of you really were big RG3 fans when he played in college for Baylor, but his biggest strength as a passes was his amazing touch on downfield passes. As an NFL QB, he hasn't been able to do too much downfield passing, part of that is his current WR group not being able to be effective in that aspect of the game, so signing/drafting Jacoby Jones/Mike Davis would allow him to utilize one of his biggest strengths as a passer.

Look at what he was able to do at Baylor when he had guys that could get deep. Look at the perfect downfield throws:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=odT2HLVq_JQ

As mentioned before it is still early and very likely to change by the time the draft comes, but as of right now this is what I'd like to see.

On a side note, one other comment that got my attention Turtle..
turtle28 wrote:
I still think you're overhyping him some, just as you did last year with Goodwin.


Enlighten me, please tell me how I overrated Marquise Goodwin last season? You stated he would be able to be picked up by us as an UDFA. Your only reasoning was that he didn't put up numbers at Texas. You stated numerous things about his game that were not remotely true. For example, he doesn't have good hands, can't block, poor route runner...all of which have been shown to be false. I stated he could go anywhere from the 2nd-4th round before the draft. He went in the 3rd round. I'd say I nailed that one. I was one of the only people that saw Goodwin as a legitimate NFL WR prior to his Bowl Game/Senior Bowl last season. That is when he started to get some hype from others, then at the combine he tore it up like expected. I stated numerous times the tools were all there with Goodwin to be a good playmaker/deep threat, he just wasn't utilized well by the offensive coordinator/had terrible QB play.

So far this season he has been healthy for 5 games. In these games the past 5 weeks he has gone over 50 yards receiving 3 times. In his first 5 NFL games so far he has had THREE DIFFERENT QB's LOL. Despite this he has still put up 2 td's and 180 yards in that 5 game stretch. This doesn't even factor in that he has to compete with Steve Johnson, Robert Woods, TJ Graham, Scott Chandler, Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller for targets. All of these guys are actively used in the passing game in the Bills offense.

Even more impressive, is the teams he has put up numbers against. In his 5 games he has played:
Bengals- 51 yards 1td
Dolphins-0 targets
Saints- 56 yards
Chiefs- 64 yards 1td
Steelers- 9 yards

Against 3 of the best defenses in the NFL (Bengals, Saints, Chiefs) he has 171 yards and 2 td's.

Despite playing with E.J. Manuel, Jeff Tuel, and Thad Lewis the past 5 games, Goodwin is averaging:

36 yards receiving per game
.4 td's per game
18 yards per catch
if that is averaged for a 16 game season that would equate to:

577 receiving yards
6-7 touchdowns
As of right now he is the Bills number 4 WR, but that is likely to change in the coming weeks with how he has been performing.

Just for example, Hankerson a 3rd YEAR WR that is a starter is putting up:
41 receiving yards per game
.333 TD's per game
12.8 yards per catch

Goodwin isn't even a starter yet, has had 3 QB's in 5 weeks, and has put up better numbers per game than all of our WR's except for Garcon as just a rookie...a rookie who you said prior to the draft shouldn't be drafted...please tell me again now how I overrate Goodwin?
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Marcus21


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 4:21 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Woz wrote:
Some things to chew on while you're looking at free agency and the draft. With our current roster, we are (ranks are before MNF ended (*)):

OFFENSIVE STATS
Overall
58 of 126 3rd downs converted (46%, 4th)
3 of 8 4th downs converted (38%, 22nd-tied)
59 penalties (15th-tied), 511 yards (17th), 8.66 yards/penalty (15th)
Time of possession 31:48 (8th)
14 fumbles (22nd-tied), 5 lost (9th-tied)
Turnover ratio of 0 (15th-tied)

Passing
210 of 346 (60.7% - 16th best)
2333 yards (7.2 YPC - 14th-tied)
12 TDs (19th-tied)
11 INTs (24th-tied)
128 1st downs (37.0% - 6th)
24 pass plays of 20+ yards or longer (26th-tied)
2 pass plays of 40+ yards or longer (31st)
18 sacks allowed (6th)
81.1 passer rating (21st)

Rushing
269 attempts for 1361 yards (5.1 YPC - 1st-tied)
12 TDs (3rd)
70 1st downs (26.0% - 3rd)
12 rush plays of 20+ yards or longer (3rd)
1 rush play of 40+ yards or longer (8th-tied)


Looking at all this we have a good, but not great offense. It's one of the best in terms of rushing, and while it's not spectacular through the air, it's decent.


DEFENSIVE STATS
Overall
40 of 106 3rd downs converted against (38% - 13th)
7 of 8 4th downs converted against (88% - 31st)
50 penalties (6th-tied), 438 yards (8th), 8.76 yards/penalty (19th)
Time of Possession 28:52 (9th)
8 fumbles forced (29th-tied), 6 recovered (15th-tied)

Passing
210 of 316 (66.5% - 29th)
2473 yards allowed (8.3 YPC - 30th)
19 passing TDs allowed (28th-tied)
10 INTs (18th-tied)
133 passing 1st downs allowed (42.1% - 32nd (no one else is above 40%))
37 pass plays of 20+ yards allowed (28th)
3 pass plays of 40+ yards allowed (4th-tied)
22 sacks (20th)
Opponent passer rating 98.8 (27th)

Rushing
237 attempts for 1024 yards (4.3 YPC - 22nd-tied)
12 rushing TDs allowed (29th-tied)
62 rushing 1st downs allowed (26.2% - 30th)
5 rushing plays of 20+ yards (13th-tied)
1 rushing play of 40+ yards (15th-tied)


That, folks, is a defense that stinks.

Let's consider this: 237 rushing attempts + 316 pass attempts is 533 plays (ignoring penalties). 62 rushing 1st downs + 133 passing 1st downs is 195 first downs. This means, that on plays that don't involve penalties, our opponents have gotten a first down 35.26% of the time. Yes, more than one out of every three plays has netted opposing teams a fresh set of downs.

That's ridiculous.

Now, on the face of it, our atrocious passing stats say that we should look to a corner and free safety.

That would be a mistake.

If our passing defense was bad but our run defense was good, that might be the right play. No, they're both bad. That means the problem is up front.

We know that Fletcher is going to retire (well, we don't but it is a pretty safe bet). We know that we're not getting any real pressure on opposing quarterbacks. So we need to focus on the front seven. Pressure is an absolute must. I would say look for a 3-4 nose but, A) Cofield has been decent, and B) the market for NTs in both free agency and the draft looks pretty tapped out. So, personally, I would focus on the ends. Yes, Carriker might come back, but he's been gone for so long that he is a massive question mark. Bowen and Jenkins are alright but can be replaced. Inside linebacker is probably the biggest weakness.

If you're looking for a 2nd or 3rd wideout, unless the value is really great, that's probably not the right call. Free agency is probably where we would go. That said, the more I think about it, the more I think we don't go after a big name wide receiver. Think about it: we have our #1 in Garcon. Why do we need another big name? Also, would they want to come here to try and become the #1? I could see possibly taking a chance on Maclin because of the upside in the reclamation project. Britt is absolutely laughable as an option. The guy is a complete chucklehead; he makes Fred Davis look like Mother Teresa.

If I thought this front office would draft an offensive linemen highly, I would make that my priority in any predictions. However, I just don't see it happening. We're going to be built from pieces and parts. The funny thing is that if we stuck to our strengths (the run game), this would be okay. The problem is we're going pass happy at all the wrong times.

I'm admittedly not the best in terms of picking out collegiate talent; I'll leave that to others. However, if I knew talent, I think I would focus on the defense first and foremost. Now, if I thought a guy would drop to me because of ... whatever reason, then sure, perhaps I would take a wide receiver or a stud right tackle. I just don't see that as being the best value pick (for the WR) or likely to happen (for the RT).



(*) Yes I know some of this is in another thread. I just wanted to move it here to make my point. Plus I added some.


I feel like the run D is getting better since Jarvis Jenkins returned!!! Esp the last couple of weeks!!! The secondary is getting worse! Im including Fletcher and Riley when I say secondary!! Biggers, Wilson, and Murphy are a laughing stock!! Im cutting Amerson some slack because he is a rookie, but he has had some really bad blown plays!! Im not saying we dont need to put more pressure on the QB, but this secondary is sad!!
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 6:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The pass rush and secondary work together.

Hasn't anyone ever heard of a coverage sack?

Or a turnover forced because of pressure?

The coverage just hasn't been good at ALL! (Except for Hall, as Marcus said, Amerson gets a rookie pass).There's only been 1 or 2 plays all year that I recall the coverage being good and the announcers talking about no one ending open and it caused a coverage sack.

Almost every incomplete pass that qbs have had and interceptions that have been thrown have been because of pressure on the opposing Qb.

That being said, I think the skins need to do both. We have to get a starting caliber FS if we want to be a legitimate top 10 defense.

We need help at DE because of injuries.

We don't need a new NT - Cofield may be a pro bowler this year and if not, he's deserving and we have two young guys developing behind him in Baker and Neild.

The 3-4 DE's in our scheme are not glamour players, no one should expect them to make a lot of splash plays, but I do expect more out of them than what they've given us.

Bottom line, get a true FS get an upgrade at LDE and an ILB to play next to Riley and we'll be a good to great D
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daboyle250


Joined: 29 Nov 2011
Posts: 4316
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PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 8:01 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
The pass rush and secondary work together.

Hasn't anyone ever heard of a coverage sack?

Or a turnover forced because of pressure?

The coverage just hasn't been good at ALL! (Except for Hall, as Marcus said, Amerson gets a rookie pass).There's only been 1 or 2 plays all year that I recall the coverage being good and the announcers talking about no one ending open and it caused a coverage sack.

Almost every incomplete pass that qbs have had and interceptions that have been thrown have been because of pressure on the opposing Qb.

That being said, I think the skins need to do both. We have to get a starting caliber FS if we want to be a legitimate top 10 defense.

We need help at DE because of injuries.

We don't need a new NT - Cofield may be a pro bowler this year and if not, he's deserving and we have two young guys developing behind him in Baker and Neild.

The 3-4 DE's in our scheme are not glamour players, no one should expect them to make a lot of splash plays, but I do expect more out of them than what they've given us.

Bottom line, get a true FS get an upgrade at LDE and an ILB to play next to Riley and we'll be a good to great D


Agreed. We need a replacement for Bowen, Fletcher, and a guy who will take Rambo's spot and then we'd have a good defense.
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Brian23


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 8:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Take Rambo's spot? He's not even starting. Kid shows well and gets put right back on the bench and his errors were rookie errors one would expect.

The way people talk about him now is insane too me.
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daboyle250


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 8:18 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brian23 wrote:
Take Rambo's spot? He's not even starting. Kid shows well and gets put right back on the bench and his errors were rookie errors one would expect.

The way people talk about him now is insane too me.


Who has it now? Biggers? That's worse.
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MKnight82


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PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 9:08 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Turtle. We don't need DEs because of injuries. We need them because we don't have a starting caliber end on the roster.
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tyler735


Joined: 12 Aug 2007
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Location: Minnesota
PostPosted: Tue Nov 12, 2013 9:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brian23 wrote:
Take Rambo's spot? He's not even starting. Kid shows well and gets put right back on the bench and his errors were rookie errors one would expect.

The way people talk about him now is insane too me.


Agreed!
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