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Grizzly224


Joined: 29 Mar 2011
Posts: 386
PostPosted: Wed Oct 09, 2013 2:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

[quote="Cypher"][quote="Grizzly224"]I agree that a team is built from the inside out but I think you have an easier time finding good OL later in the draft than finding good position players. The drop off from the #1 WR to the #5 WR is much greater than the drop off from the #1 OT to the #5 OT in most cases.[/quote]

Honestly that couldn't be more wrong. If you pick an LT outside of the top 10-15, it's a complete crapshoot.[/quote]

I don't agree and here is why.

Since Gross was taken in the top 10 in the 03 draft there have been 10 tackles taken in the top 10 (not counting the 2013 draft).

04_ Robert Gallery-out of football
06- D'Brickasahw Ferguson- Still starting but average
07- Joe Thomas- very good
07- Levi Brown- just traded from the cards for poor play
08- Jake Long (1st overall) maybe the best LT in the game
09- Jason Smith- out of football
09- Andre Smith- Had one good year
10- Trent Williams- oft injured, had a suspension for drugs
11- Tyron Smith- ok
12- Matt Kalil- Good

Of those 10 only Thomas and Long were homeruns with the jury still out on Kalil. 2 are average and the 5 are either out of football or not doing well.
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Cypher


Joined: 04 Mar 2008
Posts: 2292
PostPosted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 1:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Well, first off, I said top 10-15. Second, I feel like you chose to cut off at 2004 to aid your argument. Let's do 2000 and on. And you left guys like Monroe, Okung, etc off your list and I have no idea why.


2000 - Chris Samuels - Tremendous player, 6x pro bowler, 1x all-pro, career cut short due to injury
2001 - Leonard Davis - Solid player, 3x pro bowler, 1x all-pro
2001 - Kenyatta Walker - Solid RT for years
2002 - Mike Williams - Bust
2002 - Bryant McKinnie - Had some real solid years when his weight was under control
2002 - Levi Jones - Honestly, I don't recall how good he was.
2003 - Jordan Gross - We know
2004 - Robert Gallery - As you said, bust
2005 - Jammal Brown - Tremendous when healthy, rarely was
2006 - D'Brickashaw Ferguson - Ups and downs, overall a very good player
2007 - Joe Thomas - Probably the best LT in football
2007 - Levi Brown - Meh. Bust.
2008 - Jake Long - Seems to have fallen off a bit, great player though
2008 - Ryan Clady - Absolutely tremendous, injury bug though
2008 - Chris Williams - Bust
2008 - Branden Albert - Very, very solid tackle
2009 - Jason Smith - Bust
2009 - Andre Smith - Actually a pretty good RT last I saw
2009 - Eugene Monroe - Great tackle, terrible team
2010 - Trent Williams - Pro bowler, not sure beyond that, not much of a Redskins fan
2010 - Anthony Davis - Solid, not spectacular
2010 - Russell Okung - Fantastic, seems to be a bit injury prone though
2011 - Tyron Smith - From what Cowboys fans say, very good tackle
2012 - Matt Kalil - Very good so far


Overall, i'd say the potential to get a guy you can depend on to block your QB's blindside in the top 15 is pretty damn high, especially when compared to the 2nd round.
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faccda01


Joined: 25 Feb 2007
Posts: 4036
Location: Delaware
PostPosted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 9:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

On the flip side of Cypher's post, here are the WRs taken in the top 15 since 2000:

Peter Warrick 2000: Bust
Plaxico Burress 2000: Successful
Travis Taylor 2000: Who? Bust
David Terrell 2001: Bust
Koren Robinson 2001: Bust
Rod Gardner 2001: Bust
Donte Stallworth 2002: Decent career, not worth #13 overall pick
Charles Johnson 2003: Bust
Andre Johnson 2003: Huge success
Larry Fitzgerald 2004: Success
Roy Williams 2004: Had a few good years, but overall not worthy of #7
Reggie Williams 2004: Bust
Lee Evans 2004: Bust
Michael Clayton 2004: Bust
Braylon Edwards 2005: Had a few good years
Troy Williamson 2005: Bust
Mike Williams 2005: Bust
Calvin Johnson 2007: Major Success
Ted Ginn 2007: Not worth the #9 selection for sure, borderline bust
Derius Heyward-Bey 2009: Borderline bust
Michael Crabtree 2009: Success
AJ Green 2011: Success
Julio Jones 2011: Success
Justin Blackmon 2012: TBD
Michael Floyd 2012: TBD

As you can see, a lot of busts for WRs in the first 15 picks. Recently however, the success rate has been higher, I'll give you that. Overall though it is much safer to go OL towards the top than WR.
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Drics13


Joined: 30 Dec 2007
Posts: 73
PostPosted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 11:20 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Cypher wrote:
Well, first off, I said top 10-15. Second, I feel like you chose to cut off at 2004 to aid your argument. Let's do 2000 and on. And you left guys like Monroe, Okung, etc off your list and I have no idea why.


2000 - Chris Samuels - Tremendous player, 6x pro bowler, 1x all-pro, career cut short due to injury
2001 - Leonard Davis - Solid player, 3x pro bowler, 1x all-pro
2001 - Kenyatta Walker - Solid RT for years
2002 - Mike Williams - Bust
2002 - Bryant McKinnie - Had some real solid years when his weight was under control
2002 - Levi Jones - Honestly, I don't recall how good he was.
2003 - Jordan Gross - We know
2004 - Robert Gallery - As you said, bust
2005 - Jammal Brown - Tremendous when healthy, rarely was
2006 - D'Brickashaw Ferguson - Ups and downs, overall a very good player
2007 - Joe Thomas - Probably the best LT in football
2007 - Levi Brown - Meh. Bust.
2008 - Jake Long - Seems to have fallen off a bit, great player though
2008 - Ryan Clady - Absolutely tremendous, injury bug though
2008 - Chris Williams - Bust
2008 - Branden Albert - Very, very solid tackle
2009 - Jason Smith - Bust
2009 - Andre Smith - Actually a pretty good RT last I saw
2009 - Eugene Monroe - Great tackle, terrible team
2010 - Trent Williams - Pro bowler, not sure beyond that, not much of a Redskins fan
2010 - Anthony Davis - Solid, not spectacular
2010 - Russell Okung - Fantastic, seems to be a bit injury prone though
2011 - Tyron Smith - From what Cowboys fans say, very good tackle
2012 - Matt Kalil - Very good so far


Overall, i'd say the potential to get a guy you can depend on to block your QB's blindside in the top 15 is pretty damn high, especially when compared to the 2nd round.


Massively unpredictable all around is all this says. To be fair his original post said 1st WR, only a few years was there not even one WR taken who ended up being successful.

You could look at the situations they go into, control for unpredictable injuries also. But its all going to make the same noise. It is largely a crapshoot but lately, the standard of College football seems to be coming close to NFL levels, or top players seem to be much more NFL ready. If you look at the Top 10 From 2011 when we took Cam, there are 6 pro bowlers, Marcel Dareus, Jake Locker and Tyron Smith. I think Smith looks like he will be top class, Locker was on the way to developing and Dareus is a beast. 10th pick was Gabbart so 1 in 10 was rubbish, which i would think is better then previous years.

2012 top 10 seems to be also pretty solid so far, RG3 had a bad injury, Im not sure what Stephen Gilmore and Barron are like , I think Blackmon shows flashes is a total nutjob but at a good time could be a great player. Luke is obviously top class and the rest look good. 2013 is too early to tell.

I think overall it is a little safer drafting now, as in not as much of a crap shoot, players look more NFL ready.
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ericr0319


Joined: 31 Jul 2006
Posts: 1083
Location: Florida
PostPosted: Thu Oct 10, 2013 4:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

its depressing that it is week 6 and we are talking about who we want in the first round. I really think we can win our next 4 games still.
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