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Texan Stat Projections

 
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Pastor Dillon


Joined: 12 Jan 2007
Posts: 9733
Location: Mountain Home, Arkansas
PostPosted: Thu Oct 03, 2013 3:42 pm    Post subject: Texan Stat Projections Reply with quote

4 weeks into the NFL season and we can make some projections as to where the Texan players will finish the season statistically

Schuab - 4,772 yards 32 TDs 24INTs

Foster - 1,168 rushing 424 receiving 8 total TDs
Tate - 912 rushing

AJ - 136 catches 1,472 yards
Nuke - 80 catches 1,080 yards 4 TDS

WATT - 14 sacks 12 PDs
Merc - 14 sacks
Cushing 132 tackles 6 sacks 4 INTS
JJOE - 28 PDs 4 INTs


some of those seem a little high, and i doubt they replicate the first quarter success, but if they did the following would happen

1. Schuab would break the Texans passing record by 2 yards, and set a new TD record

2. Tate will get PAID by the browns in the off season

3. AJ would have the 2nd most catches in a season ever...bumping him down the list to 15, 19 and 47 for past seasons. in fact he just needs to average 7.4 receptions per game to move into #2 all time(single season)

4. Nuke runs away with ROY

5. Watt Cushing and Mercilus all get DPOY love and i would think Cushing would have to win it
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Andre Johnson
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Apollo Stallion


Joined: 06 Feb 2008
Posts: 5671
Location: Battle Red State
PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 2:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Interesting. How about this projection you missed. Ben Tate has fumbled once every 45 carries in his career including several in situations where ball security was absolutely paramount like short yardage and 2nd half with a lead. For reference, Steve Slaton coughed it up once every 63 carries and lost his job in 2010 after his 3rd lost fumble (+2 more we recovered). Give Tate the ball 400 times like we did Foster last year and he'd have 9 fumbles. Of course, even the Browns would be smart enough to bench him after about 3 or 4, just like Kubiak did (even if he doesn't admit it). Of course, that also assumes he would stay healthy with full time use, which is highly unlikely with a player that has missed 21 games while playing 30 thru 4 seasons so far. Chris Ivory "projected" to be a good back for the Jets this season as well. I "project" Tate will have a great 4-5 game run for someone next year before the corresponding negatives associated with his projected greatness inevitably catch up to him, returning him to "tease" status.
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Apollo Stallion


Joined: 06 Feb 2008
Posts: 5671
Location: Battle Red State
PostPosted: Fri Oct 04, 2013 2:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Or if you prefer...

Any team that pays a bunch of money to a free agent running back vs. just drafting their own in the middle rounds needs to take a gander at rushing stats vs. draft position or salary sometime. I would argue that the smartest move a GM could make would be to find and groom a decent 3rd down back who could pick up blitzes and make him the one to keep signed long-term then draft and groom lead backs every 2-3 years and let them walk or trade them off for higher picks.

I love Foster but you could make a pretty solid argument that it would have made much more sense have let him hit free agency after using him up last season vs. resigning him early, drafted his replacement in April 2013 year and start Tate this season before letting him walk. Heck, even if we weren't confident in Tate heading into a probable playoff season, we could have franchised Foster which would actually have saved $500k as the tag was LESS than we are paying him this year with 3 more years of escalation remaining. I would be perfectly happy with a 4th rounder like Johnathan Franklin as a #2 this year while grooming him for a 3 year run as feature back while getting paid $500k vs. Arian drawing $8.75 million - $9.5 million with 1,500 carries of mileage. Seems to me that the $ would almost always be much better spent on a quality RT who is useful on every play, not just the 35%-40% running plays.
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