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2014 Draft Scenario: Need at OT...

 
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diamondbull424


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 23, 2013 12:27 am    Post subject: 2014 Draft Scenario: Need at OT... Reply with quote

We need a starting LT. That much has been evident for the past few years now.

But just how much would you guys be willing to give up to make that happen? To secure a franchise LT.

I was thinking, say we net back a 3rd round compensatory pick for the Browns picking up Kruger. And say we net back a 4th for Ellerbe while netting a 6th for Reed/Williams. Obviously I have no idea how the comps will shake out, but for this scenario, assume we get: 3rd, 4th, and 6th comps.

Now say, some team in the top 10 is looking to trade down for more picks.

Would you guys be willing to trade our 1st and 2nd round picks in this draft to trade up and nab the best LT in this class? Would you give up a 2nd AND 3rd round pick? Or would you rather stick to the board and attack talent where it falls?

Obviously we'd easily win the trade chart, but we've seen in recent years where the trade chart hasn't been so strictly adhered to as bad teams are starting to realize that strong depth can be just as, if not more impactful than a very talented prospect.
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Mancunian Raven


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 23, 2013 3:13 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Whatever it takes. There are teams who are likely to draft ahead of the Ravens who will be in dire need of OTs as well. Five or six of them. And itís time the Ravens got themselves that keystone of the offense that theyíve not had since JO retired.

If it meant giving up the 1st, 2nd and 3rd, Iíd live with it. The comp picks would still give the Ravens some ammunition to go and get some mid-round value players, and there arenít really any other big holes in the roster at the moment.

WR, TE, S, are all positions that could be improved, based on current performances. But if Pitta comes back as his old self, and Furstenburg learns the role on the PS, and Deonte Thompson and Marlon Brown live up to what the team seems to think they can do, then two of those problems are solved.

We also need to see what happens with Michael Oher, though. Isnít he a FA after this season? He might be wanting a big payday, and I still think the Ravens drafted Ricky Wagner with an eye to him replacing Oher. But if he does, then the only backup O-line guys would be Shipley (should probably trade him at the end of the year to a team that needs a Center, get another pick), Jensen (havenít seen him on the field for a single snap, due to injury) and Reid (nowhere near mean and physical enough to play Guard in the NFL). So Guard could be a position of depth need too.

Iím just hoping thereís a rush on QBs, in next yearís draft. Perhaps four going in the top fifteen, then there are a couple of top 20 talents at WR, a couple at TE, thereís Clowney and Barr and some other defensive prospects. This draft is deep. Which brings me back around to that Ďwhatever it takesí mentality. This is the other side of the coin. Giving up those picks for the LT the Ravens need will mean missing out on other guys who could make a difference, in the 2nd and 3rd rounds.
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Flaccomania


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 23, 2013 6:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I would absolutely not give up a 1st and 2nd round pick. We have many more needs than just a LT. We very well may lose Oher to FA this year as well.

Stick to the board, and stick with what's gotten us to where we are. If one starts to slip and it costs us a little bit, then sure, pull the trigger. But unless we're picking mid-teens and it only costs something like a 3rd and 6th to move up, I'm against it. No way I'm giving up my 1st AND 2nd round pick for a single player unless he's a stud and a half.
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sp6488


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 23, 2013 9:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Flaccomania wrote:
I would absolutely not give up a 1st and 2nd round pick. We have many more needs than just a LT. We very well may lose Oher to FA this year as well.

Stick to the board, and stick with what's gotten us to where we are. If one starts to slip and it costs us a little bit, then sure, pull the trigger. But unless we're picking mid-teens and it only costs something like a 3rd and 6th to move up, I'm against it. No way I'm giving up my 1st AND 2nd round pick for a single player unless he's a stud and a half.


I'm guessing we stick to our board and grab an OT that slides down. Even if he's not a blue-chipper, I think that's fine. I would guess that the Ravens would go sign a reasonably priced vet a la McKinney, Willie Anderson, Birk, etc. as a week 1 starter to supplement the offensive line.
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gooselovechild


Joined: 29 Mar 2007
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PostPosted: Mon Sep 23, 2013 11:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

This is tougher than I first thought when I read the question.

Initially, I thought no, but with Clowney and the quality QBs likely to dominate the top 5 this year, I started to wonder if a 1st, 3rd, and 4th might net Matthews or Lewan, both of whom are top 10 talents, even in this draft.

Then I realized that if we make the playoffs, which is still likely at this point, the absolute best pick we would have would be 21, and a win in the playoffs puts us at 25 or lower. At that position, we're talking about trading our 1sts in 2014 and 2015, plus probably a 3rd or 4th this year to get close to one of those guys, and possibly more,

Ozzie wouldn't do that, and neither would I. I say stick to the board and see who falls into a range where we don't have to trade half our draft away to get a quality LT, because we still have needs at WR, TE, S, and possibly pass rusher that we'll also have to address as well.

We're consistently among the deepest and youngest rosters in the league. I see no reason to deviate from that plan by mortgaging an entire draft, and possibly two, for one player unless it's for a franchise QB, and we already have one of those.
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Mancunian Raven


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 23, 2013 11:10 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

sp6488 wrote:
Flaccomania wrote:
I would absolutely not give up a 1st and 2nd round pick. We have many more needs than just a LT. We very well may lose Oher to FA this year as well.

Stick to the board, and stick with what's gotten us to where we are. If one starts to slip and it costs us a little bit, then sure, pull the trigger. But unless we're picking mid-teens and it only costs something like a 3rd and 6th to move up, I'm against it. No way I'm giving up my 1st AND 2nd round pick for a single player unless he's a stud and a half.


I'm guessing we stick to our board and grab an OT that slides down. Even if he's not a blue-chipper, I think that's fine. I would guess that the Ravens would go sign a reasonably priced vet a la McKinney, Willie Anderson, Birk, etc. as a week 1 starter to supplement the offensive line.


I don't imagine any of the top six or seven OTs will make it to where the Ravens are picking, to be honest. Unless their draft stock falls due to a poor year, in which case, they might not be considered LT material anyway.

We're seeing teams investing more in bookend tackles, due to defenses becoming more adept at rushing from both sides, and due to QBs generally passing more. So even teams with franchise LTs will be interested in grabbing a second one. Just like Kansas City did last year.
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coordinator0


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 23, 2013 12:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

No, I wouldn't want the Ravens to trade multiple picks to move up that far in the draft. I don't think they really need one of the elite left tackle prospects, just somebody good enough. And if the elite left tackles are taken fairly high (like top 5ish) and all that's left are the second tier options then those guys aren't worth giving up all that for anyways. If Osemele turns things around like I expect he will then I think needing an elite left tackle becomes even less of an issue. An upgrade over McKinnie won't be hard to find. If he was competent that's a different story but that's not the case.

Like Flaccomania mentioned there are other pressing needs on the team as well. I don't really believe that Thompson will be an answer to the WR woes. Smith is looking like a legitimate capable #1 or high-end #2 wide receiver and Brown seems to be useful too but it's too early to say that Thompson coming back would solve anything. I'm still placing wide receiver the second biggest need on the team after left tackle.

Then there's safety. Elam has one of the spots pretty much locked down (if not due to play then because of draft position and the team wanting to see what he can do) but there's a gaping hole alongside him. Does anybody really think Ihedigbo is a long-term answer? Apparently Huff isn't worth much (and that's probably why he got a smaller contract) so safety needs to be addressed. With that said I really doubt they go with another safety high in the 2014 draft after taking Elam in the first round last draft. Still, if we're talking about trading multiple picks to move up in the draft then it affects this issue since there would be less picks to address the need.

Tight end could and probably will be a need in some fashion. I have no doubt Pitta will be brought back but there's no guarantee that he will be able to move like he did. If Pitta loses any of his mobility then I think that's going to be a big problem. Then there's the durability concern. Is Pitta's hip at risk for more problems in the future? I have no idea but it's at least a possibility. Like I mentioned in another thread I think Dickson probably won't be brought back so a #2 tight end is a need I'm counting. And with the concerns I mentioned earlier about Pitta there better be a quality #2 tight end on the roster. Hopefully one that can actually catch the ball and block. However, it's hard to say how Juszczyk will affect anything. His eventual role on offense may lead to the #2 tight end mainly needing to be a blocker and if that's the case then I think it pushes back the possible pick of a tight end from about the 3rd round to a few rounds later. Think

Right tackle has also been brought up as a possible need but if Oher leaves then I think the team would see what they have in Wagner or Reid there instead of investing much on it in the draft or free agency. Regardless I just don't feel like it's worth trading multiple quality picks for a left tackle or any other player. A quarterback would be different but thankfully the Ravens don't need one.
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diamondbull424


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 23, 2013 1:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just wanted to clarify the question because it seems some people are still worried about the TVC. I'm not intending to see what makes perfect TVC sense... or what we might have to give up for the TVC.

Obviously we would never give that up for a LT.

Proposed another way...

The Philadelphia Eagles are selecting 9th in the draft. Our top rated LT prospect is still on the board. And the Eagles offer US their #9 pick for our 1st and 2nd (similar to when we moved back with Jacksonville for nowhere near TVC level, the year we got Flacco).

If we're offered this deal, I say do it.

And sure, I'm usually one that actually likes to trade down and accumulate value, but with how weak-sauce McKinnie has been as a run blocker... and with this being the final year of his contract upon which we could expect even less talent over there (because while McKinnie sucks at RB, he's fairly good as a pass blocker on occasion, so you could definitely do worse than McKinnie)... I say upgrade the talent of the line now as Flacco heads into his prime. I'd like to upgrade our weapons and upgrade the safety position, but those are both positions that you can still find quality players in the 3rd round.

With two 3rd rd picks, two 4th rd picks, a 5th, and three 6ths... I think that's plenty of ammo for a strong drafting team to work with in regards to upgrading its depth and plugging holes.

I'm all for business as usual, but if we have a shot at an elite LT prospect... and it'd only cost us a 2nd... with a bevvy of comp picks to share in replacing the lost 2nd... I think it's a very calculated risk.

We're in a good position to add weapons as Pitta should come back on a much cheaper deal than had he played and erupted this year. And Michael Oher's hype has seemed to have faded... while his play has actually started to improve on the right side... we could be in a good position to resign him for a nice value deal.

So all that would be missing would be that LT... insert Taylor Lewan or Cyrus Kouandjio... that would complete our line. And now we have the ability to run left and run right. Which makes the threat of PA even stronger, which boosts the effectiveness of rollouts. I like business as usual, but this team is already very deep and we'd still have plenty of picks to use... so upgrading the number of players on the team with elite potential would be a quality opportunity.

Really for me, what it comes down to is this... with ten picks in the draft, if you ask me to trade two of them... a Courtney Upshaw (2nd rd) and Michael Oher (1st rd) so that I can move up and get a Jake Long or a Ryan Clady... well, no way I'm not taking that deal. And Long and Clady are two guys Lewan and Kouandjio have been compared to.
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coordinator0


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 23, 2013 1:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

For what it's worth I wasn't really worried about the value of trading up, just all the picks it would take away from the Ravens to do so and in turn allowing them to address less of the needs they have. If all it cost was a 2nd round pick then that's a different story as it still allows the Ravens to retain some of their quality picks to address the other needs. I don't think that's the case though. The Jacksonville trade in the Flacco draft was too long ago to still be relevant. Something somewhat close to that kind of trade was in 2012 when the Cowboys trade up from #14 to #6 with the Rams for Claiborne. They had to give up pick #45 along with #14 to move up that high and in what looks to be a very good draft this year I'd assume that the Ravens moving up from the 20's to the top 10 would cost significantly more. Of course there's a lot of other factors that have to be considered too like the relationship between front offices and the needs to the team trading back.
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gooselovechild


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 23, 2013 7:05 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

diamondbull424 wrote:
I just wanted to clarify the question because it seems some people are still worried about the TVC. I'm not intending to see what makes perfect TVC sense... or what we might have to give up for the TVC.

Obviously we would never give that up for a LT.

Proposed another way...

The Philadelphia Eagles are selecting 9th in the draft. Our top rated LT prospect is still on the board. And the Eagles offer US their #9 pick for our 1st and 2nd (similar to when we moved back with Jacksonville for nowhere near TVC level, the year we got Flacco).

If we're offered this deal, I say do it.

And sure, I'm usually one that actually likes to trade down and accumulate value, but with how weak-sauce McKinnie has been as a run blocker... and with this being the final year of his contract upon which we could expect even less talent over there (because while McKinnie sucks at RB, he's fairly good as a pass blocker on occasion, so you could definitely do worse than McKinnie)... I say upgrade the talent of the line now as Flacco heads into his prime. I'd like to upgrade our weapons and upgrade the safety position, but those are both positions that you can still find quality players in the 3rd round.

With two 3rd rd picks, two 4th rd picks, a 5th, and three 6ths... I think that's plenty of ammo for a strong drafting team to work with in regards to upgrading its depth and plugging holes.

I'm all for business as usual, but if we have a shot at an elite LT prospect... and it'd only cost us a 2nd... with a bevvy of comp picks to share in replacing the lost 2nd... I think it's a very calculated risk.

We're in a good position to add weapons as Pitta should come back on a much cheaper deal than had he played and erupted this year. And Michael Oher's hype has seemed to have faded... while his play has actually started to improve on the right side... we could be in a good position to resign him for a nice value deal.

So all that would be missing would be that LT... insert Taylor Lewan or Cyrus Kouandjio... that would complete our line. And now we have the ability to run left and run right. Which makes the threat of PA even stronger, which boosts the effectiveness of rollouts. I like business as usual, but this team is already very deep and we'd still have plenty of picks to use... so upgrading the number of players on the team with elite potential would be a quality opportunity.

Really for me, what it comes down to is this... with ten picks in the draft, if you ask me to trade two of them... a Courtney Upshaw (2nd rd) and Michael Oher (1st rd) so that I can move up and get a Jake Long or a Ryan Clady... well, no way I'm not taking that deal. And Long and Clady are two guys Lewan and Kouandjio have been compared to.


If it's as simple as trade a 1st and 2nd to move up, then yeah, do it.

But unless something goes horribly wrong, it can't possibly be that simple.

I use the Falcons-Browns trade from a few years ago when they move up for Julio Jones. It cost the Falcons four picks I believe...two of which were 1st rounders...to jump from the mid 20s into the top 10.

And with the potential stars at the top of this draft (Clowney, Bridgewater, Barr, Hundley, Boyd, Manziel, Lee, etc.--without even mentioning any of the three potential LT prospects), that price is likely to be a good starting point.

For me, it's less about whether the trade works with the trade value chart and more about whether the price tag to move up this year-especially from the bottom third to the top third of the 1st round-is realistic because I think the number of franchise QBs and uber talents at DE/OLB and OT is going to cause a seller's market and actually inflate prices for teams looking to move up.
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diamondbull424


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 10:04 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yeah, the point of this thread wasn't necessarily to make a realistic scenario.

I was simply trying to gauge how desperate people were for an elite LT prospect.

Because even if we assume the above scenario is simply not realistic, I figure there might be a scenario where one of the top three LTs will still be there at around pick #12-15 in the draft.

And if we're sitting at around pick #26, I think there's a fair chance that a team like the Titans or Rams would be willing to move back 10-14 spots to pick up an extra 2nd round pick. So while jumping 20 spots probably wouldn't be that realistic to assume, we usually tend to end up around 25-27 in the draft. So if this class lives up to it's billing as a class that could see multiple QBs go in the top 10, along with Clowney, Barr, and Roby... that could definitely leave open the possibility for one of the "big three" (why is it always three) elite LT options to fall just outside of the top 10. If Taylor Lewan, Cyrus Kouandjio, or Jake Matthews falls to the aforementioned range, call me crazy but whether Kruger nets a 3rd or if he only nets a 4th comp doesn't matter to me, I'd trade that 2nd rounder to secure one of those three guys... especially Kouandjio... the guy looks as stout at the POA as DJ Fluker, yet has some really quick/explosive feet... and his arms have got to be 35.5+"... they don't look quite as freakish as Fluker's, but he's not very far behind.

Though I suppose, I'll have to really wait until the CFB season has had time to run through. To see where certain names look like they're going to fall to... and if this class has some kind of depth to it into the 3rd and 4th rounds.
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