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Justin Houston: How good can his season be?
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How many sacks will Houston finish with this year?
8 or less
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
8 to 10
0%
 0%  [ 0 ]
10.5 to 13
4%
 4%  [ 1 ]
13.5 to 15
13%
 13%  [ 3 ]
15.5 to 17
18%
 18%  [ 4 ]
17.5 to 19
27%
 27%  [ 6 ]
19.5 to 21
4%
 4%  [ 1 ]
More than 21
31%
 31%  [ 7 ]
Total Votes : 22

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ryknowssd


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 2:54 am    Post subject: Justin Houston: How good can his season be? Reply with quote

This guy is obviously having one hell of a season so far. In an effort to see whether I can predict his success, I wanted to look at who he'll be facing the rest of the season. Take a look for yourself:

Quote:
@ JAGUARS - Blaine Gabbert (QB), Luke Joeckel (rookie RT), Uche Nwaneri RESULT: 3 SACKS
COWBOYS - Tony Romo (QB), Doug Free (Holding machine RT), Mackenzy Bernadeau (RG) RESULT: 0 SACKS
@EAGLES - Michael Vick (QB), Lane Johnson (rookie RT), Todd Herremans (RG) RESULT: 4.5 SACKS
GIANTS - Eli Manning (QB), Justin Pugh (rookie RT), Chris Snee (RG)
@ TITANS - Jake Locker (QB), David Stewart (RT), Chance Warmack (rookie RG)
RAIDERS - Terrell Pryor (QB), Khalif Barnes (RT), Mike Brisiel (RG)
TEXANS - Matt Schaub (QB), Derek Newton (3rd year RT), Brandon Brooks (2nd year RG)
BROWNS - Brandon Weeden (QB), Mitchell Schwartz (2nd year RT), Shawn Lauvao (RG)
@ BILLS - EJ Manuel (QB), Erik Pears (RT), Kraig Urbik (RG)
10 BYE
@ BRONCOS - Peyton Manning (QB), Orlando Franklin (RT), Louis Vasquez (RG) ***No Ryan Clady***
CHARGERS - Phillip Rivers (QB), DJ Fluker (rookie RT), Jeromey Clary (RG)
BRONCOS - Peyton Manning (QB), Orlando Franklin (RT), Louis Vasquez (RG) ***No Ryan Clady***
@ REDSKINS - Robert Griffin III (QB), Tyler Polumbus (RT), Chris Chester (RG)
@ RAIDERS - Terrell Pryor (QB), Khalif Barnes (RT), Mike Brisiel (RG)
COLTS - Andrew Luck (QB), Gosder Cherilus (RT), Mike McGlynn (RG)
@ CHARGERS - Phillip Rivers (QB), DJ Fluker (rookie RT), Jeromey Clary (RG)


In short, Houston gets to face a rookie RT 5 times this season and possibly more in the event of injury. The other 13 games, he's either facing an average player, a QB who has a history of taking more sacks than he should due to holding onto the ball too long or he's facing Peyton. And, well, with Peyton, he doesn't have his starting center or his starting LT, so I expect him to be under siege for 8 full quarters from SOMEONE, whether it's Houston or not.

So, how many can he get? Will he break Strahan's sack record? Is it really a possibility for him? Because right now, he's on pace for 40 sacks. I highly doubt ANYONE will ever post that many, so what's a realistic number for him this year?

Current stats:
7.5 Sacks
17 Tackles
3 PDs
1 Forced Fumbles
2 Fumble Recoveries


**BTW, if anyone has a link where I can get stuffs and QB pressures, I'd appreciate it if you posted it here so I can check it regularly and keep this thread updated.
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KC_Guy


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 6:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

When he talked about breaking Strahan's sack record I considered it bragging - but now?

I think 22.5 is the Over/Under right now if he stays healthy. The system favors him, and as I mentioned in another thread: I think Hali is deliberately used to seal off escape routes and to chase the QB into Houston's beloving arms. However: teams will adjust. May be they elect to surrender sacks to "Dontario" instead of Houston.

As for the Rookie OT: I only heard good things about D.J. Fluker - he probably is the best OT coming out of this year's draft so far.
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chiefs82


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 9:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

He could have at least 12 bye the bye. I think he ends the season @ 18 sacks. Question is how much will it cost to keep him after a monster year?
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KC_Guy


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 9:36 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

chiefs82 wrote:
He could have at least 12 bye the bye. I think he ends the season @ 18 sacks. Question is how much will it cost to keep him after a monster year?


645 k$ ... he's under his rookie contract through 2014. After that he's going to be expensive if he stays healthy.

However, wouldn't mind to extend him as soon as possible - if the cap allows.
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Rearviewmirror


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 12:35 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I've been saying for a while now, and if you dug into my post history you could probably find it (otherwise I've got it saved on twitter), but Justin Houston is going to demand to NFL biggest defensive contract in history, maybe JJ Watt gets a little more right after or something, but make no mistake about it, he'll deserve it. He's an ELITE pass rusher, an ELITE run stuffer, and he's probably as close as it comes to ELITE in pass defense. The man can literally do everything at an elite level, all game long. Give the man his money.
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Chiefer


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 1:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Houston by god, DPOTY candidate for sure with this schedule.
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Jakuvious


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 2:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Raiders and Chargers could do Houston a lot of favors. Problem is, with or without Clady, I don't see him getting more than 1 in either Bronco game. I think we're lucky if he gets 1 against Denver, honestly. Not blindside against Peyton? Recipe for low production.
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simonwayne


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 2:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

At work box score scouting the Giants game. They've allowed 6 sacks at the half. Getting stomped by the Panthers.

Would be surprised if Houston doesn't get 2+ sacks next game
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Mikek163


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 7:57 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

If Houston can "somehow" manage 3.5 sacks this week he will break the record in my opinion. 3.5 sacks sounds ridiculous, but considering that's what he is averaging vs rookie Rts...
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simonwayne


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 8:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Also, Houston had a beast play vs the Eagles against the run where he was getting blocked by a lineman and McCoy was about to do one of his dances behind the linemen or whatever but Houston instantly flung off his blocker and tackled McCoy in like a split second.

I remember during the game saying something like "Houston has more agility than Shady... Shocked"
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bigschmadt00


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 10:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I imagine teams will start adjusting to what he's doing. To be able to break the record, he's going to have to be able to beat doubles, and get there in under 3 seconds, consistently. Even then, teams will just start to hold a lot, and history shows eventually the refs will just stop calling it, because it would slow the game down so much. If he does break the record, it will prove just how much of an all time stud he is. There is certainly a chance obviously, but I'm thinking more like 18-19 is where he'll end up. Still, that's a fantastic year.
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Jakuvious


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PostPosted: Sun Sep 22, 2013 10:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

bigschmadt00 wrote:
I imagine teams will start adjusting to what he's doing. To be able to break the record, he's going to have to be able to beat doubles, and get there in under 3 seconds, consistently. Even then, teams will just start to hold a lot, and history shows eventually the refs will just stop calling it, because it would slow the game down so much. If he does break the record, it will prove just how much of an all time stud he is. There is certainly a chance obviously, but I'm thinking more like 18-19 is where he'll end up. Still, that's a fantastic year.


I think Houston is somewhat of a unique situation there though. He isn't a DE, so you can't count on him rushing every down. And he drops back in coverage quite a bit for a 3-4 OLB. There's a certain difficulty to devoting two players all the time to a player who may not rush. We also have a very balanced rush right now, with Hali from the left, Poe up the middle, and Houston on the right. While Houston is our greatest threat to actually get a sack, I still see Poe double teamed more than anyone else, just because interior pressure is so much more detrimental to the functionality of an offense. I don't actually expect Houston getting doubled much, honestly.

I certainly think teams will move a back or TE over to Houston's side, but I really don't see that going terribly well for them. If we rush 5 (which is frequently the case, still), you have to single block every player but Houston to double Houston, and that's if they have 6 blockers in. Jackson and Poe have been eating one on one blocks alive this year.
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bigschmadt00


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 23, 2013 12:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Jakuvious wrote:
I think Houston is somewhat of a unique situation there though. He isn't a DE, so you can't count on him rushing every down. And he drops back in coverage quite a bit for a 3-4 OLB. There's a certain difficulty to devoting two players all the time to a player who may not rush.

Good point, I hadn't thought about that. That just means he'll draw a RB, so that if he doesn't rush, then the RB goes out for a pass route, which would essentially tie Houston up most likely anyway. Regardless, that guessing game could hinder their offense significantly.
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onejayhawk


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PostPosted: Mon Sep 23, 2013 2:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Houston is also coming at most QB in their field of view. He will not get the blind side sacks.

J
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DT58_lives_on


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PostPosted: Tue Sep 24, 2013 12:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think breaking the record is possible, but he will have to do several things in my opinion.

1. Stay healthy (this includes simply not wearing down too much as the season progresses).

2. Need to make sure he has no more 0 sack games. I think there is a chance of multiple sack games, but honestly you can't count on those.

3. In terms of teams suddenly switching and game-planning against him, I'd like to think they already have been, it's not like he wasn't a threat before this season. I remember a comment back when Derrick Thomas was still playing/alive, someone said they game planned for him more than any other defensive player in the NFL. I think Houston could begin to push those boundaries (I also think Watt is someone who would draw the comparison).
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