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Fantasy outlook for the Giants

 
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McGahee


Joined: 29 Nov 2005
Posts: 1256
Location: Canada
PostPosted: Mon Aug 19, 2013 8:47 pm    Post subject: Fantasy outlook for the Giants Reply with quote

Hi all, doing my prep for fantasy football and I wanted to ask about some of your key players.

1. I thought David Wilson was going to break out last year, now I'm very optimistic that this is the year. I saw him play well last night but Andre Brown stole a lot of carries. Is Wilson a solid fantasy #2 RB? What kind of numbers do you see him putting up? Any info here would be great as I don't want to flub this pick

2. I keep seeing Victor Cruz as my top ranked WR on the board at round 3 (10 team 0.5PPR) and I'm considering picking him. I thought he was going to have a monster year last year but it didn't materialize. Is there anything that's showing that he can be a top 5 fantasy WR? What kind of numbers do you see him putting up?

3. Is Nicks still a viable option or should I steer clear? Right now he's valued as about a #2 fantasy WR.


Thanks guys
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fracdaddy14


Joined: 23 Feb 2012
Posts: 3455
Location: Northeastern PA
PostPosted: Mon Aug 19, 2013 11:16 pm    Post subject: Re: Fantasy outlook for the Giants Reply with quote

McGahee wrote:
Hi all, doing my prep for fantasy football and I wanted to ask about some of your key players.

1. I thought David Wilson was going to break out last year, now I'm very optimistic that this is the year. I saw him play well last night but Andre Brown stole a lot of carries. Is Wilson a solid fantasy #2 RB? What kind of numbers do you see him putting up? Any info here would be great as I don't want to flub this pick

2. I keep seeing Victor Cruz as my top ranked WR on the board at round 3 (10 team 0.5PPR) and I'm considering picking him. I thought he was going to have a monster year last year but it didn't materialize. Is there anything that's showing that he can be a top 5 fantasy WR? What kind of numbers do you see him putting up?

3. Is Nicks still a viable option or should I steer clear? Right now he's valued as about a #2 fantasy WR.


Thanks guys



Wilson will get the majority of the carries but will be in a sort of RBBC with Brown. In standard leagues, I'd consider Wilson in Rounds 4-5, a FLEX in 12 teams, a RB2 in deeper. Similar situation to Cincinnati. Brown should ideally be a high backup at around RB4-5 around rounds 8-9.

Cruz is much higher in PPR, although the actual PPR points could make a difference, .5 is normal and probably bumps him comfortably ahead of a Steve Smith, Mike Wallace, or Pierre Garcon. Ideally a WR2 in PPR, WR2-3 in most leagues and only a WR1 in super deep. He gets a ton of targets in the regular season.

Nicks is an injury risk, if he was healthy all the time, he'd be in the high end of the 11-20 WR range, which he probably is on the low end again. A 6th Round pick just below the VJAX/Andre Johnson group. If possible, you can handcuff Reuben Randle to him, although guys like Josh Gordon and Michael Floyd around pick 100 are better replacement options.
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jerseyboy257


Joined: 21 Apr 2012
Posts: 603
Location: Northern Jersey
PostPosted: Tue Aug 20, 2013 12:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

As a self-proclaimed fantasy expert Very Happy, I'll put in my two cents here.

Wilson is certainly a break out candidate to many and has great upside. Last year Wilson averaged a 5.0 ypc and I believe will maintain something around that. However, his total carries for next year is uncertain, surely making his value a question mark. Getting touches is critical to putting up big numbers, equating to fantasy success. Here's a list of the 10 RBs in the NFL with the most touches: Foster (351), Peterson (348), Morris (335), Martin (319), Lynch (315), Ridley (290), Charles (285), Green-Ellis (278), Chris Johnson (276), Shonn Greene (276). Only Green-Ellis and Greene were not top 10 RBs in terms of rushing yards. With Andre Brown looking to get a large share of carries and time on the field as Wilson isn't necessarily a trusted back in protection, I do not think he'll be seeing this many carries. Can it happen though? Sure, Bradshaw carried for 276 times in 2010, even with Jacobs healthy through 16 games. But Bradshaw was better in pass protection and our OL was arguably better back then too. However, I'm not buying this 50/50 Wilson and Brown split situation that many envision. Wilson should, and I believe will, get the majority of caries (isn't that why we took him in the first round?) and about 70% time share. If I had to bet my money on it, I'd say he gets around 15 touches a game. Some games more, some games less. Bradshaw received 15.8 attempts per game last year. So, 15 I believe, sounds about right for Wilson. Through 16 games, that would give him about 240 carries in the season. Multiply that by his solid ypc of 5.0, positively skewed from his explosive running, and you get 1200 yards rushing. I don't think that's out of the question whatsoever. As far as receiving, you'll most likely be looking at somewhere from 200-300 yards. Let's say 200 receiving, to avoid sounding like a homer, giving him a total of around 1400 yards or 140 fantasy pts (without TDs). When people hear that Andre Brown will be getting most goal line carries, which he more than likely will, people assume low TD totals. This isn't necessarily true, especially for explosive runners like Wilson who can break off that long run. Wilson had 5 TDs last year (not including his kickoff return TD) receiving only about 30% of the carries he'd get this year. Some sites only project Wilson to have 5 TDs when he accomplished that in 75 touches. If he kept up that pace, he'd have 10 TDs in 150 touches. Or 20 TDs in 300 touches. While these numbers are more than likely unrealistic, Wilson was able to show that he can be a scoring threat in limited touches. I think 8 TDs is highly probable, and I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever if he could get that total up to 12 . 8x6= 48+140= 188 pts. with a high ceiling. This would put Wilson 12th at the position in last year's totals. This is what I personally consider a truthful, and unbiased, estimate.

I typed way too much there and i'm too tired to do the same with the next two questions so I'll make it to the point. Cruz and Nicks both have the potential to be top 10 fantasy WRs. Cruz was 4th best WR two years ago with 206 pts and fell to 169 points in a down year for the Giants offense overall. Cruz's production seems to increase with Nicks' presence, so Cruz numbers I believe will go up and I believe will be a top WR (i have him ranked 9th), as Roddy White finished 10th with 177 pts. Cruz has potential to be top 5 once again. Nicks has potential to be up there too, but I don't think top 10 tbh, but it's possible. In 2011, he finished at 11th at his position, but failed to stay healthy last year. Now that he should be motivated in a contract year, he should be working to get back to that form and success, but I think the emergence of Randle, especially as a deep threat, and Brandon Myers, could put a limit to his opportunity of success. I think Nicks would be a good option for a WR2 and think he can be a top 15 WR, I believe I have him at 14th at the position. My advice with Nicks has been, if you're going to take Nicks and bank on him to be healthy, cuff him with Randle with your last pick, because Randle would fill very nicely just as a starter and I wouldn't expect much, if any, of a drop off in production.

Hope I helped Smile
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McGahee


Joined: 29 Nov 2005
Posts: 1256
Location: Canada
PostPosted: Sun Aug 25, 2013 10:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks for that answer, and I fear too many people have read your answer since I'm having trouble getting Wilson in the 4th. He's my target as a RB2 and my whole draft hinges on getting him in the 4th.

Has anything changed now that it's been 3 weeks of pre-season? That 85 yard run didn't help my chances of getting him in the 4th.

Nicks still due for a semi-decent season? Should I look into grabbing Randle?
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NYGiantsman10


Joined: 18 Feb 2006
Posts: 10054
PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2013 2:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

McGahee wrote:
Thanks for that answer, and I fear too many people have read your answer since I'm having trouble getting Wilson in the 4th. He's my target as a RB2 and my whole draft hinges on getting him in the 4th.

Has anything changed now that it's been 3 weeks of pre-season? That 85 yard run didn't help my chances of getting him in the 4th.

Nicks still due for a semi-decent season? Should I look into grabbing Randle?


Yeah Nicks will probably give you a decent season. Randle would be a wise handcuff given how he's looked and Nicks' injury history. When in doubt in fantasy take the guy in the contract year.
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McGahee


Joined: 29 Nov 2005
Posts: 1256
Location: Canada
PostPosted: Mon Aug 26, 2013 8:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I took Wilson in the 4th.. despite having CJ2K and Foster. Couldn't pass on Wilson for Bowe...
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McGahee


Joined: 29 Nov 2005
Posts: 1256
Location: Canada
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 8:30 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Should I trade David Wilson plus one of my bench WRs for Roddy White?

It's a 10 team standard scoring league with 0.5 PPR, here's my roster:

QB: Brees
RB: Foster, Chris Johnson, David Wilson, Gio Bernard
WR: Jordy Nelson, Cecil Shorts, Stevie Johnson, Tavon Austin, Emmanuel Sanders, Justin Blackmon
TE: Gronk, Jared Cook, Julius Thomas
K: Justin Tucker
DEF: None

Other guy is interested in Wilson plus a WR for Roddy. Which WR should I offer? Should I keep Wilson and maybe try to trade CJ2K for a top WR?
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dkebones


Joined: 15 Mar 2007
Posts: 3737
Location: Giants fan in the Seahawk's backyard...
PostPosted: Tue Aug 27, 2013 11:04 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

McGahee wrote:
Should I trade David Wilson plus one of my bench WRs for Roddy White?

It's a 10 team standard scoring league with 0.5 PPR, here's my roster:

QB: Brees
RB: Foster, Chris Johnson, David Wilson, Gio Bernard
WR: Jordy Nelson, Cecil Shorts, Stevie Johnson, Tavon Austin, Emmanuel Sanders, Justin Blackmon
TE: Gronk, Jared Cook, Julius Thomas
K: Justin Tucker
DEF: None

Other guy is interested in Wilson plus a WR for Roddy. Which WR should I offer? Should I keep Wilson and maybe try to trade CJ2K for a top WR?


if you don't have the Ben Tate handcuff i would not let go of Wilson, though you don't have a true #1.... if it were me i'd roll with my squad as-is
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James Jones FTW


Joined: 23 Sep 2007
Posts: 451
PostPosted: Thu Aug 29, 2013 11:25 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Wondering giants fans opinion on Adrein Robinson. Playing deep bench dynasty and I've been eyeing him lately and with Injury if he becomes IR eligible I plan on pouncing. Just wondering from fans who have seen him is he just raw athleticism or does he have legit shot in the future?
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