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Week 14 Playoff Picture and Projections

 
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MrCincinnati


Joined: 10 Jul 2013
Posts: 2638
Location: Hamilton, OH
PostPosted: Tue Dec 03, 2013 9:52 pm    Post subject: Week 14 Playoff Picture and Projections Reply with quote

http://espn.go.com/nfl/playoffs/machine

AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

1.Broncos 10-2
2.Patriots 9-3
3.Colts 8-4
4.Bengals 8-4
5.Chiefs 9-3
6.Ravens 6-6

In the Hunt:
7.Dolphins 6-6
8.Titans 5-7
9.Steelers 5-7
10.Chargers 5-7
11.Jets 5-7

Since the Bills, Raiders, and Browns are all at 8 losses now, I would push them out of the race now too.

Games of Importance:

1st Slate

1.Vikings @ Ravens - Need Vikings win (No need to explain)
2.Dolphins @ Steelers - Need Dolphins win (No need to explain)
3.Browns @ Patriots - Need Browns win (Still in the race for the #2 seed)
4.Chiefs @ Redskins - Need Redskins win (Want the Chiefs to stay in the #5 seed)
5.Raiders @ Jets - Need Raiders win (Another Jets loss would eliminate them)

2nd Slate

1.Titans @ Broncos - Need Titans win (Could still win the #1 seed maybe)
2.Giants @ Chargers - Need Giants win (Another Chargers loss would eliminate them)

Projected Playoff Standings

Mr.Cincinnati's Playoff Machine

1.Broncos 14-2
2.Patriots 13-3
3.Bengals 11-5
4.Colts 10-6
5.Chiefs 12-4
6.Steelers 8-8

7.Dolphins 8-8
8.Ravens 7-9
9.Chargers 7-9
10.Titans 7-9
11.Jets 6-10
12.Raiders 6-10
13.Bills 5-11
14.Browns 4-12
15.Jaguars 4-12
16.Texans
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theJ


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Joined: 20 Mar 2005
Posts: 23192
PostPosted: Tue Dec 03, 2013 9:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MrCincinnati, i think you ought to post this every week too. Useful for seeing who has the best shot at each seed.

http://playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcstandings.html
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MrCincinnati


Joined: 10 Jul 2013
Posts: 2638
Location: Hamilton, OH
PostPosted: Wed Dec 04, 2013 9:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

theJ wrote:
MrCincinnati, i think you ought to post this every week too. Useful for seeing who has the best shot at each seed.

http://playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcstandings.html


Yeah ill do that as well

So by overall projections, mine aren't that far off. Only difference is the Dolphins have the better chance to make the Playoffs than the Steelers.

I would be comfortable with playing the Dolphins because they aren't really a cold weather team. Them beating the Bengals already once could be used as motivation too.
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theJ


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 7:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MrCincinnati wrote:
theJ wrote:
MrCincinnati, i think you ought to post this every week too. Useful for seeing who has the best shot at each seed.

http://playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcstandings.html


Yeah ill do that as well

So by overall projections, mine aren't that far off. Only difference is the Dolphins have the better chance to make the Playoffs than the Steelers.

I would be comfortable with playing the Dolphins because they aren't really a cold weather team. Them beating the Bengals already once could be used as motivation too.

I don't know how they calculate the percentages, and i don't fully trust them. But it is a nice website for playing "what if" scenarios without the tedium of the ESPN Playoff Machine.

As far the games themselves go, at this point the Bengals just need to win this week and they're in (not officially, but virtually). At 9-4, only two teams could beat their record if they lost out, and with games against the Vikings and Steelers, i don't see losing out as a real possibility.
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MrCincinnati


Joined: 10 Jul 2013
Posts: 2638
Location: Hamilton, OH
PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 11:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

theJ wrote:
MrCincinnati wrote:
theJ wrote:
MrCincinnati, i think you ought to post this every week too. Useful for seeing who has the best shot at each seed.

http://playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcstandings.html


Yeah ill do that as well

So by overall projections, mine aren't that far off. Only difference is the Dolphins have the better chance to make the Playoffs than the Steelers.

I would be comfortable with playing the Dolphins because they aren't really a cold weather team. Them beating the Bengals already once could be used as motivation too.

I don't know how they calculate the percentages, and i don't fully trust them. But it is a nice website for playing "what if" scenarios without the tedium of the ESPN Playoff Machine.

As far the games themselves go, at this point the Bengals just need to win this week and they're in (not officially, but virtually). At 9-4, only two teams could beat their record if they lost out, and with games against the Vikings and Steelers, i don't see losing out as a real possibility.


What I don't understand is why it says the Dolphins have a better chance at missing the playoffs than making it, yet they have the best percentage at the 6th seed.

The Bengals would have to lose out in order to miss the playoffs which likely wont happen. However the remaining games can't be overlooked that's for sure.

Anything can happen and until mathematically eliminated from a scenario, the team is still in the running for a #1 seed even though its not gonna happen.

Majority of Bengal fans on the Bengals.com seem to believe its gonna be the 3rd seed when its all said and done.

The real question is who would people want to play in the playoffs when its all said and done?
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LondonBengal


Joined: 07 Feb 2010
Posts: 5043
Location: London, England, UK
PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 11:46 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

MrCincinnati wrote:
Only difference is the Dolphins have the better chance to make the Playoffs than the Steelers. I would be comfortable with playing the Dolphins because they aren't really a cold weather team. Them beating the Bengals already once could be used as motivation too.


I want a Dolphins win too, I'd rather go into PIT Sunday week with them @ 5-8 rather than 6-7, a MIA win takes a little edge off that game. 8-8 almost kills off the Steelers this year.
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theJ


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PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 12:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

MrCincinnati wrote:
What I don't understand is why it says the Dolphins have a better chance at missing the playoffs than making it, yet they have the best percentage at the 6th seed.

That's because the % have to add to 100 for each team. So basically, Dolphins have the best shot, but they're not a heavy favorite. They're barely a favorite at all.
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MrCincinnati


Joined: 10 Jul 2013
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Location: Hamilton, OH
PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 8:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

LondonBengal wrote:
MrCincinnati wrote:
Only difference is the Dolphins have the better chance to make the Playoffs than the Steelers. I would be comfortable with playing the Dolphins because they aren't really a cold weather team. Them beating the Bengals already once could be used as motivation too.


I want a Dolphins win too, I'd rather go into PIT Sunday week with them @ 5-8 rather than 6-7, a MIA win takes a little edge off that game. 8-8 almost kills off the Steelers this year.


Well my playoff machine has the steelers going 8-8 and still making the playoffs, so realistically I could see an 8-8 making it, even though it probably wont happen. If the Bengals manage to beat the Steelers at Pittsburgh, theres no way they will make the playoffs IMO, so if the Steelers lose there next 2 its over. Ravens I want to start losing soon though, because last thing I want to happen is for this to come down to week 17 and then the Bengals blowing it, because they will blow it if it does come down to that IMO.
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MrCincinnati


Joined: 10 Jul 2013
Posts: 2638
Location: Hamilton, OH
PostPosted: Thu Dec 05, 2013 8:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

theJ wrote:
MrCincinnati wrote:
What I don't understand is why it says the Dolphins have a better chance at missing the playoffs than making it, yet they have the best percentage at the 6th seed.

That's because the % have to add to 100 for each team. So basically, Dolphins have the best shot, but they're not a heavy favorite. They're barely a favorite at all.


Ok it makes sense now

I even took a look at the NFC picture and it was the same way with both the Lions and Cowboys having a better chance at the 4th seed than the 3rd.
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Hokie


Joined: 01 Apr 2012
Posts: 1115
PostPosted: Sun Dec 08, 2013 8:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I hate the Patriots. Third week in a row they've pulled one out of their butts. I think they drop one of these next two in Miami or Baltimore. Speaking of wish, they pulled one out of their butts to. That's unfortunate, because they still have a realistic shot at winning the division. Tough game for them in Detroit next week though; in fact, their schedule is pretty brutal the rest of the way.

Huge game for us next week in Pittsburgh. If we win, we could very well be on our way to the 2nd seed and be very close to having the division wrapped up. In fact, we can have it wrapped up with a victory in Pittsburgh and a Baltimore loss in Detroit on MNF.
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theJ


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:25 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

With the win yesterday, a number of clinching scenarios are open now. And they now hold a virtual 2 game lead on the 3 seed with a tiebreaker over the Colts. Even if the Pats, Colts and Bengals had the same record at the end of the season, the Bengals would hold the tiebreaker over both of them (head to head wins). In other words - sitting pretty.

Clinching Options for Week 15

Seed #6
Bengals beat Pittsburgh
and Patriots beat Dolphins

Seed #4
Bengals beat Pittsburgh
and Lions beat Ravens

Seed #3
Bengals beat Pittsburgh
and Texans beat Colts
and Lions beat Ravens

Elimination Scenarios

Seed #1
Pittsburgh beats Bengals
and Broncos beat Chargers

So all in all, a decent chance they lock up a playoff spot this week. Note that every scenario includes beating pittsburgh, so this is obviously a big game.
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MrCincinnati


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PostPosted: Mon Dec 09, 2013 10:32 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I know its upsetting that the Patriots keep winning, however I'm not expecting the Bengals to get that 2nd seed at the end of the day. All I want right now is to get that AFC North Division and not play the Ravens or Steelers in the wildcard round.

The Bengals have 2 playoff scenarios this week.

Bengals can clinch the AFC North with:

1)CIN win + BAL loss

Bengals can clinch a playoff berth with:

1)CIN win + MIA loss

Even though wanting a Dolphins loss would possibly help the Bengals clinch a playoff spot, I want them to beat the Patriots in week 15 anyway. But not because of the #2 playoff seed race, but because I want the Dolphins to get that #6 seed.
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