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Fantasy outlook for the Ravens
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McGahee


Joined: 29 Nov 2005
Posts: 1256
Location: Canada
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 11:10 pm    Post subject: Fantasy outlook for the Ravens Reply with quote

Hi all, doing my prep for fantasy football and I wanted to ask about some of your key players.

1. I'm considering Torrey Smith at WR. He's now the go-to guy. What kind of season do you see him putting up? Fantasy WR2 type numbers?

2. I'm looking into Ray Rice at my #7 overall pick. What kind of a season do you see him having? I'm worried about him losing touches to Pierce. Will Jim Caldwell calling plays have a positive or negative effect on him?

3. Any sleepers on the team to keep an eye on?

Thanks guys
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wackywabbit


Joined: 20 Dec 2009
Posts: 7032
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 11:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Smith and Rice are our offense right now. Smith should be a good #2. Any touches Rice loses on the ground, he'll make up for with a new career high in targets.

Pierce is the only obvious sleeper as of now.
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McGahee


Joined: 29 Nov 2005
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Location: Canada
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 11:24 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So if I grab Rice, I'd have to handcuff him with Pierce for sure.

We're in a 0.5PPR league, so that doesn't really help Smith. Do you see him putting up 1000 yards and 10 TDs?

Trying to figure out if he's going to break out now that he's the #1, and Jim Caldwell is calling the offense
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SnA ExclusiVe


Joined: 01 Jun 2011
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Location: Spokane, WA
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 11:33 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The only players I will have on my Ravens fantasy team is Justin Tucker and Torrey Smith.

That is all. Ray Rice shouldn't even be considered until the 3rd maybe 4th round as of now.
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sp6488


Joined: 14 Mar 2005
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Location: MD
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 11:36 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
The only players I will have on my Ravens fantasy team is Justin Tucker and Torrey Smith.

That is all. Ray Rice shouldn't even be considered until the 3rd maybe 4th round as of now.


Dude... you can't be serious?
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SnA ExclusiVe


Joined: 01 Jun 2011
Posts: 25460
Location: Spokane, WA
PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 11:40 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sp6488 wrote:
SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
The only players I will have on my Ravens fantasy team is Justin Tucker and Torrey Smith.

That is all. Ray Rice shouldn't even be considered until the 3rd maybe 4th round as of now.


Dude... you can't be serious?


I am absolutely serious. Rice has lost so much explosiveness and elusiveness that his production is bound to take a hit. That, and the combination of Bernard Pierce taking reps away, why would you draft him in the 1st round? I wouldn't take him over atleast 5 or so other RB's.
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Steve Smith Sr. on Panthers Secondary wrote:
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coordinator0


Joined: 18 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 11:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wouldn't say you should handcuff Rice with Pierce for sure. There's been a lot of hype about Pierce getting more carries but I don't think he'll get that many. Last year he had 108 carries and Rice had 257. Assuming the rush attempts stay somewhat the same I'd only expect Rice to get about 30 or so ess carries with Pierce's increasing by roughly that amount. Although Pierce is taller than Rice (not really bigger in terms of weight) he's not really a power back so I don't think he'll definitely be a go-to guy near the goalline. Don't get me wrong I like Pierce a lot but I don't think his statistical numbers will be all that great. Giving Rice a break while still having a quality runner (and receiver, Pierce has reliable hands) is the most important factor.

As for the rest of the team I think Smith is the only guy you want to own. I'd definitely project WR2 numbers from him. Caldwell diversifying the routes used should only help Smith. He'll still see his share of deep passes but now he'll be used on other types of patterns too. There aren't any other receivers you could trust to get points unless a clear option emerges early on in the regular season. We won't know anything until then. Dickson would be an obvious sleeper candidate if it weren't for the situation with his injury. We haven't heard anything about it's severity so that's scary. Might just mean you can get a good value later or cheaper though. And finally, Flacco. Who knows. I'm confident he'll put up decent real life numbers but for fantasy it's hard to say.

EDIT - Oh yeah Tucker at K and the defense are definitely ownable. I'm a bit leery about the defense (the guy calling it at least) but if nothing else I think they can put up big raw numbers. Tucker is legit and should get plenty of points this season.
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SnA ExclusiVe


Joined: 01 Jun 2011
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 11:44 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I just think there are a lot of signs that Rice's production and fantasy value is going to go way downhill.

1.) lack of explosiveness and elusiveness and straight line speed
2.) Caldwell's new offense being more based around passing and non-usage of Vonta Leach
3.) Bernard Pierce's expanded role

All of those tell me not to pick Rice until as late as I can - and he's most likely to be severely overdrafted anyways.

As for defense - Defense is all about matchups. I picked a different I think every week last year because if someone was playing the Jets or the Chiefs, I would pick up their defense and ride them for tremendous points while others sat on the 49ers all year long. Worked out very well in the end for me.
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BareYourTeeth


Joined: 29 Mar 2009
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PostPosted: Thu Aug 15, 2013 11:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

sp6488 wrote:
SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
The only players I will have on my Ravens fantasy team is Justin Tucker and Torrey Smith.

That is all. Ray Rice shouldn't even be considered until the 3rd maybe 4th round as of now.


Dude... you can't be serious?


Did you forget who you're talking to?

Laughing
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BaltimoreTerp


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Joined: 13 Feb 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 12:00 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Less carries for Rice is going to be a good thing for his fantasy outlook in certain ways. He's slimmed down and more explosive than he was last year when he was super bulked up trying to be a bruiser lone back, so the big play threat is more there than it has been in the recent past. And he's going to be utilized a ton in the passing game both out of the backfield and also as a slot receiver, and should see his yards-per-carry go up a bit as well as he's not going to be exhausting himself in the trenches all game long.
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SnA ExclusiVe


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 12:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BaltimoreTerp wrote:
Less carries for Rice is going to be a good thing for his fantasy outlook in certain ways. He's slimmed down and more explosive than he was last year when he was super bulked up trying to be a bruiser lone back, so the big play threat is more there than it has been in the recent past. And he's going to be utilized a ton in the passing game both out of the backfield and also as a slot receiver, and should see his yards-per-carry go up a bit as well as he's not going to be exhausting himself in the trenches all game long.


I haven't seen any of this so-called explosiveness you keep eluding to.

Yes, I'm well aware of his threat in the passing game, but as of now that's it. He's no longer a huge running threat because I don't see that elusiveness and explosion he used to have.
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Steve Smith Sr. on Panthers Secondary wrote:
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McGahee


Joined: 29 Nov 2005
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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 12:03 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thanks guys, I appreciate all the responses.

Would you take Rice over and of the following RB: Spiller, McCoy, Richardson, Charles, Martin?
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BaltimoreTerp


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 12:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
BaltimoreTerp wrote:
Less carries for Rice is going to be a good thing for his fantasy outlook in certain ways. He's slimmed down and more explosive than he was last year when he was super bulked up trying to be a bruiser lone back, so the big play threat is more there than it has been in the recent past. And he's going to be utilized a ton in the passing game both out of the backfield and also as a slot receiver, and should see his yards-per-carry go up a bit as well as he's not going to be exhausting himself in the trenches all game long.


I haven't seen any of this so-called explosiveness you keep eluding to.

Yes, I'm well aware of his threat in the passing game, but as of now that's it. He's no longer a huge running threat because I don't see that elusiveness and explosion he used to have.


And if he hasn't been busting them out yet 11 carries in through 2 preseason games, then he's definitely not going to get there!
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SnA ExclusiVe


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 12:07 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

McGahee wrote:
Thanks guys, I appreciate all the responses.

Would you take Rice over and of the following RB: Spiller, McCoy, Richardson, Charles, Martin?


Spiller: no
McCoy: NO
Richardson: No
Charles: Depends on his injuries, but no.
Martin: Eh, I think I would, actually. I don't believe the DM hype.
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Steve Smith Sr. on Panthers Secondary wrote:
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SnA ExclusiVe


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PostPosted: Fri Aug 16, 2013 12:08 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BaltimoreTerp wrote:
SnA ExclusiVe wrote:
BaltimoreTerp wrote:
Less carries for Rice is going to be a good thing for his fantasy outlook in certain ways. He's slimmed down and more explosive than he was last year when he was super bulked up trying to be a bruiser lone back, so the big play threat is more there than it has been in the recent past. And he's going to be utilized a ton in the passing game both out of the backfield and also as a slot receiver, and should see his yards-per-carry go up a bit as well as he's not going to be exhausting himself in the trenches all game long.


I haven't seen any of this so-called explosiveness you keep eluding to.

Yes, I'm well aware of his threat in the passing game, but as of now that's it. He's no longer a huge running threat because I don't see that elusiveness and explosion he used to have.


And if he hasn't been busting them out yet 2 preseason games and 11 carries in, he's definitely never going to get there!


Explosiveness and Elusiveness is something you can see whether it's preseason or the Superbowl, and he just doesn't have it.
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