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Pastor Dillon


Joined: 12 Jan 2007
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Location: Mountain Home, Arkansas
PostPosted: Tue Jul 23, 2013 2:35 pm    Post subject: Breaking down the Texans Schedule Reply with quote

If you look at the Texans schedule this season it is kinda broken down into 3 or 4 sections.

a lot of the season hinges on the monday night opener against he the Chargers, a loss would be worse than normal thanks to the people who made our schedule

a week 2 game against a division rival on a short turnaround(we will be getting back sometime Tuesday morning)is a hit or miss game

but lets just say things bounce our way and we are 2-0(very likely could be 1-1)

we start out first section of all very tough games
@Baltimore
Home for Seattle
@ San Francisco

we could very well lose all 3 of those games and i suspect at best we only win 2, probably only win 1

we could be sitting here week 6 with a 2-4 or 3-3 record and everyone screaming for Kubiak's head after he gets blamed for some stupid matt schuab play

the good news is then we enter a fairly easier stretch where we will pick up 5 wins in 6 games or we will be watching the playoffs from him

Home for St Louis
@ Kansas City
Bye Week
Home for Colts
@Arizona
Home for Oakland
Home for Jacksonville

We should be sitting somewhere between 5-6 and 8-3 by this point in the season, with our biggest game all year coming up...Home Against the Patriots

Good news is that we are at home and will have been at home for 3 weeks by the time we play the Pats, whereas they will be coming off a tough game against the Broncos

after the pats game we will finish out with 3 of 4 on the road
@Jags
@Colts
Home for Broncos
@Titans

playing 3 games in the division on the road over the last 4 weeks is going to be a tough one

i would say our year falls somewhere between 8-8 and 11-5
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lumberjackchris


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 23, 2013 3:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Ya, I'm pretty tempted to take the under on Vegas' 10.5 season win total for us....
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CAS22


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 23, 2013 3:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Think 9 wins is the floor and 13 wins is the ceiling. Think the most likely scenario is 10-11 wins.
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BullsonParade


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PostPosted: Tue Jul 23, 2013 6:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I wouldn't be surprised with an 8-8 or 9-7 record. I also wouldn't be surprised with an 11-5 or 12-4 record. It really depends on the health of these guys, hard to really gauge.
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Apollo Stallion


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 12:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yep, I'm starting to get a bit nervous about a lack of urgency on the Texans part. That start is brutal and right now aside from Cushing's return we are a worse team than last year. Who knows when Ed Reed is going to show up and we've got to temper expectations on the impact of Hopkins and Swearinger starting out of the gate. Good grief, all we heard about was how pro ready Kareem was coming out of that pro system at Bama with Saban and we know how that rookie year worked out. There is absolutely nothing to suggest that a rookie receiver will excel in our system, and Schaub has always been slow to warm to new targets. Swearinger seems to be a quick study, but let's evaluate that after Torry Smith, Percy Harvin, or even Vernon Davis put some double moves on him down the seam or Marshawn Lynch, Ray Rice, or Frank Gore come barreling at him. The Texans seem content to roll into the season without upgrades at RT or ILB, and their usual thin secondary. Mercilus certainly has upside potential, but apparently not enough to keep Connor Barwin off the field last year primarily because Barwin was a much more complete LB vs. a pass rusher. Absent upgrades at NT or ILB, and a downgrade in run stopping at SS, you've got to expect that the run d will suffer a bit and the secondary was repeatedly exposed last year particularly against 3 wide sets. It's early, but I think we need to pump the breaks on our victory parade and fill up our talent pool a bit because we were net losers in free agency by a large margin and the impact of draft picks is pretty much limited to 2 and the learning curve makes them tough to rely on against the 3 Super Bowl contenders we start out against.
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houstonX


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 2:09 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Thankfully the Texans don't play in the NFC, right?

The Texans aren't the only teams with issues in the AFC. How exactly has the team become worse since last year? Shaun Cody is average (Earl Mitchell, according to stats, had a better season than Cody despite playing fewer snaps). Connor Barwin was useless as a pass rusher. Mercilus graded better against the run than as pass rusher. Glover Quin will likely be missed, but is in no way a big loss. James Casey is a nobody.

The right line is definitely an issue, but the Texans managed fine last year with both the RG and RT being in question. The team may have finally found their RG in Brandon Brooks so if he pans out it wont be as big as a problem as last year. ILB2 isn't a position that gets a lot of snaps so unless Cushing goes down no worries. Ed Reed health is an issue.

Let's look at the the other Superbowl Contenders, shall we?

Patriots: Sure they have Tom Brady, but with Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and Gronk missing some time their offense will not be as good as years past. Their defense was tied 9th points last year, but were around 24th in yards.

Ravens: Flacco had a great postseason but many are too soon jumping on the bandwagon. He never had a stretch where he played that well. They have issues in the secondary. WR. ILB. I'll say their situation is much worse than the Texans

Steelers: Ben is always hurt. They always seem to have issues on the o-line. Issues in the secondary, WR, and RB.

Broncos: Probably the team with the least amount of question marks, but are by no means heavily favored against the Texans, if at all favored.
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Apollo Stallion


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:47 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

houstonX wrote:
Thankfully the Texans don't play in the NFC, right?

The Texans aren't the only teams with issues in the AFC. How exactly has the team become worse since last year? Shaun Cody is average (Earl Mitchell, according to stats, had a better season than Cody despite playing fewer snaps). Connor Barwin was useless as a pass rusher. Mercilus graded better against the run than as pass rusher. Glover Quin will likely be missed, but is in no way a big loss. James Casey is a nobody.

The right line is definitely an issue, but the Texans managed fine last year with both the RG and RT being in question. The team may have finally found their RG in Brandon Brooks so if he pans out it wont be as big as a problem as last year. ILB2 isn't a position that gets a lot of snaps so unless Cushing goes down no worries. Ed Reed health is an issue.

Let's look at the the other Superbowl Contenders, shall we?

Patriots: Sure they have Tom Brady, but with Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and Gronk missing some time their offense will not be as good as years past. Their defense was tied 9th points last year, but were around 24th in yards.

Ravens: Flacco had a great postseason but many are too soon jumping on the bandwagon. He never had a stretch where he played that well. They have issues in the secondary. WR. ILB. I'll say their situation is much worse than the Texans

Steelers: Ben is always hurt. They always seem to have issues on the o-line. Issues in the secondary, WR, and RB.

Broncos: Probably the team with the least amount of question marks, but are by no means heavily favored against the Texans, if at all favored.


I'm not here to spout off the same fluff you get from media where everything is rosy in August, nor am I saying the sky is falling as I agree that other teams had losses as well. However, relative only to themselves, there is no way this team has more talent without Barwin, Quin, Casey, Walter, Cody, James than they did with them.

Unless you think Travardo Williams or Sam Montgomery are better than Barwin, there is no argument here as it is a significant net loss to OLB talent. Safety is tough to call since we have no idea when Ed Reed will suit up and Swearinger projects as an upgrade as a #3 over Demps, but not as a starter over Quin.

WR is obviously better in the long-term with Hopkins, but it's a mistake to even think he's a lock as an instant upgrade over Walter's steady 500-600 yards. 1st rounders Michael Floyd and Kendall Wright, put up Walter-esque production last year (50-60 catches / 500-600 yard), AJ Jenkins couldn't get on the field. Blackmon was much more highly regarded than Hopkins as a 5th overall pick and if you take away the ridiculous 236 yard game the Texans let him have, he had a Walter-esque 629 yards despite being a #1 on a team always playing from behind. 2nd rounders were sub Walter-level (Quick, Hill, Jefferey, Broyles, Randle). Not arguing Hopkins wasn't a smart pick, just challenging the assumption that his production will be a massive year one upgrade and don't forget all the other little things a savvy vet like Walter did to help without the ball in his hands. Regardless, #3-#5 is worse with Posey out and Bonner vs. Holliday. AJ is approaching mid 30's as is Schaub and 2 healthy years in a row would be the exception, not the rule with them.

You can argue that Greg Jones is an upgrade at FB, but losing Casey as #2 TE with no replacement is a downgrade at a much more important position. RB is likely worse in losing Forsett and I'm not counting on Tate for anything. The payment for Foster's 400 carries comes due this season and it would greatly defy history if he improved on last year or stayed healthy all season. Tackle is no better with Brennan Williams off the table and I think you guys are drinking the kool aid with Brandon Brooks who has done nothing on a football field yet, he's just in better shape than the slob who wasn't even active the first 10 weeks last year. Newton was "projected" to be ready to be a starter last year based upon a limited sample as well and was a clear weak link, so let's not take Kubiak's word for it, folks. The younger guys may improve, but Myers and Wade are 32 which may creep in a bit.

On the d-line, Crick may improve and earn a bit more time, but the Ninja is 32 and may start some modest decline. I know everyone thinks Watt can still do more, but it's pretty hard to improve on one of the best defensive seasons ever. Cody has always been underappreciated and there is no way this Chris Jones afterthought is a year 1 upgrade. ILB is obviously vastly improved with a healthy Cushing, but Sharpton & Dobbins weren't even playing over James last year and Ruud even was elevated at the end. CB is the same cast of characters with McCain's return being the only possible "improvement" but he's still ill equipped for anything but zone and a mismatch for any teams with size at WR that can isolate on him.

I've done a good job of trashing our team, which is not my intent, as I still think we have as good of a Super Bowl shot as anyone in the AFC, but it is a big mistake to think that 12-4 or a playoff spot is a lock and to not take a sober look at the reality which is that this team on paper has lost talent from last year, is on the cusp of age creeping in at some key positions, and we simply weren't good enough last year.
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Apollo Stallion


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 5:55 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I also continue to be exasperated by people who overlook the Colts when evaluating our division or conference. We were a whopping 1 game better than them last year and they stunk on paper, played rookies at key positions, and paid no attention to building their defense. Luck and their regime are in year 2 of their rebuilding and there is no reason to not assume that they will improve at a faster rate than the Texans. I defend Schaub all the time including his right to the Pro Bowl over Luck last year, but there is little question in my mind that Luck will be the better QB in short order and it certainly wouldn't shock me to see Luck elevate to the spot behind Brady and Manning this season and be primed to pass them not long after.

Kubiak couldn't beat this team on the road when they were the worst team in football at 2-14 with Dan Orlavsky at QB, so let's not get all cocky about our 2 year run atop the division. We had plenty on the line last year in their house and were outcoached again which remains a huge equalizer even with superior talent on our side.
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CAS22


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 6:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Apollo Stallion wrote:
I also continue to be exasperated by people who overlook the Colts when evaluating our division or conference. We were a whopping 1 game better than them last year and they stunk on paper, played rookies at key positions, and paid no attention to building their defense. Luck and their regime are in year 2 of their rebuilding and there is no reason to not assume that they will improve at a faster rate than the Texans. I defend Schaub all the time including his right to the Pro Bowl over Luck last year, but there is little question in my mind that Luck will be the better QB in short order and it certainly wouldn't shock me to see Luck elevate to the spot behind Brady and Manning this season and be primed to pass them not long after.

Kubiak couldn't beat this team on the road when they were the worst team in football at 2-14 with Dan Orlavsky at QB, so let's not get all cocky about our 2 year run atop the division. We had plenty on the line last year in their house and were outcoached again which remains a huge equalizer even with superior talent on our side.

You can also look at the Colts 2012 as a fluke, considering they had a -30 point differential and the easiest schedule in the league.
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houstonX


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 7:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Apollo Stallion wrote:
houstonX wrote:
Thankfully the Texans don't play in the NFC, right?

The Texans aren't the only teams with issues in the AFC. How exactly has the team become worse since last year? Shaun Cody is average (Earl Mitchell, according to stats, had a better season than Cody despite playing fewer snaps). Connor Barwin was useless as a pass rusher. Mercilus graded better against the run than as pass rusher. Glover Quin will likely be missed, but is in no way a big loss. James Casey is a nobody.

The right line is definitely an issue, but the Texans managed fine last year with both the RG and RT being in question. The team may have finally found their RG in Brandon Brooks so if he pans out it wont be as big as a problem as last year. ILB2 isn't a position that gets a lot of snaps so unless Cushing goes down no worries. Ed Reed health is an issue.

Let's look at the the other Superbowl Contenders, shall we?

Patriots: Sure they have Tom Brady, but with Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and Gronk missing some time their offense will not be as good as years past. Their defense was tied 9th points last year, but were around 24th in yards.

Ravens: Flacco had a great postseason but many are too soon jumping on the bandwagon. He never had a stretch where he played that well. They have issues in the secondary. WR. ILB. I'll say their situation is much worse than the Texans

Steelers: Ben is always hurt. They always seem to have issues on the o-line. Issues in the secondary, WR, and RB.

Broncos: Probably the team with the least amount of question marks, but are by no means heavily favored against the Texans, if at all favored.



I've done a good job of trashing our team, which is not my intent, as I still think we have as good of a Super Bowl shot as anyone in the AFC, but it is a big mistake to think that 12-4 or a playoff spot is a lock and to not take a sober look at the reality which is that this team on paper has lost talent from last year, is on the cusp of age creeping in at some key positions, and we simply weren't good enough last year.


No one who has posted on this thread has said such a thing.

The Colts? The same team, albeit went 11-5, had a negative point differential? The team that had a -12 turnover ratio? With only 15 total turnovers on defense? 27 turnovers on offense. A Pythagorean of 7.2 wins? Lost their offensive coordinator in Bruce Arians. They manage to win 2 game by a double digits, one against the Jaguars and one against the Texans who played horribly down the stretch. The colts are by no means a threat to the Texans for the upcoming season, imo. I could be wrong, though.
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lumberjackchris


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 7:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Seattle isn't looking as scary (still gonna be tough) but with Harvin having a partially torn hip muscle and Irvin suspend for the 1st 4 games. We may be able to sneak a W out.
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CAS22


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 7:42 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

lumberjackchris wrote:
Seattle isn't looking as scary (still gonna be tough) but with Harvin having a partially torn hip muscle and Irvin suspend for the 1st 4 games. We may be able to sneak a W out.

It helps that it is a home game, the Hawks are fairly average on the road.
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Apollo Stallion


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PostPosted: Thu Jul 25, 2013 9:12 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

houstonX wrote:
Apollo Stallion wrote:
houstonX wrote:
Thankfully the Texans don't play in the NFC, right?

The Texans aren't the only teams with issues in the AFC. How exactly has the team become worse since last year? Shaun Cody is average (Earl Mitchell, according to stats, had a better season than Cody despite playing fewer snaps). Connor Barwin was useless as a pass rusher. Mercilus graded better against the run than as pass rusher. Glover Quin will likely be missed, but is in no way a big loss. James Casey is a nobody.

The right line is definitely an issue, but the Texans managed fine last year with both the RG and RT being in question. The team may have finally found their RG in Brandon Brooks so if he pans out it wont be as big as a problem as last year. ILB2 isn't a position that gets a lot of snaps so unless Cushing goes down no worries. Ed Reed health is an issue.

Let's look at the the other Superbowl Contenders, shall we?

Patriots: Sure they have Tom Brady, but with Wes Welker, Aaron Hernandez, and Gronk missing some time their offense will not be as good as years past. Their defense was tied 9th points last year, but were around 24th in yards.

Ravens: Flacco had a great postseason but many are too soon jumping on the bandwagon. He never had a stretch where he played that well. They have issues in the secondary. WR. ILB. I'll say their situation is much worse than the Texans

Steelers: Ben is always hurt. They always seem to have issues on the o-line. Issues in the secondary, WR, and RB.

Broncos: Probably the team with the least amount of question marks, but are by no means heavily favored against the Texans, if at all favored.



I've done a good job of trashing our team, which is not my intent, as I still think we have as good of a Super Bowl shot as anyone in the AFC, but it is a big mistake to think that 12-4 or a playoff spot is a lock and to not take a sober look at the reality which is that this team on paper has lost talent from last year, is on the cusp of age creeping in at some key positions, and we simply weren't good enough last year.


No one who has posted on this thread has said such a thing.

The Colts? The same team, albeit went 11-5, had a negative point differential? The team that had a -12 turnover ratio? With only 15 total turnovers on defense? 27 turnovers on offense. A Pythagorean of 7.2 wins? Lost their offensive coordinator in Bruce Arians. They manage to win 2 game by a double digits, one against the Jaguars and one against the Texans who played horribly down the stretch. The colts are by no means a threat to the Texans for the upcoming season, imo. I could be wrong, though.


I'll give you Arians, but the schedule argument totally fails since we played nearly identical schedules with the exception of two games. Heck they even beat the Packers & Vikings who both made us look bad. All the other statistical mumbo jumbo is bs as as it's tantamount to us claiming we "should" have beaten them in Indy because we had a hundred more yards of offense. We played with fire with pathetic return coverage all season and it burned us vs. the Colts and Kubiak failed to address this for the 2nd offseason in a row with Marciano being one of the most clear cut failures of any ST coordinator I have ever seen (Holliday and Jacoby's return success elsewhere should have cost him his job alone better yet 2 seasons of abysmal coverage teams including the Karim return which likely cost us home field vs. Pats. Allowing the 4th quarter fake punt conversion in Oakland 2011 was one of the single worst special teams coaching calls in memory).

We "should" have beaten the Colts about 8 more times in the Kubiak era, but find new and creative ways to crater every season and they also happen to have QBs who have the ability to win in the 4th quarter. They made plays when they needed to all season and specifically Luck did. If anything, it's downright scary that once he gets his comp % up and starts incorporating Fleener and they get a running game going with an improving o-line. Remind me the last time the Texans actually won a game when we were outplayed? Kubiak's hyper conservative nature always has us failing to put teams away and screwing up the nuances like clock management, kick or go, challenges, etc. I wish they had some sort of WAR stat for coaches like they do in baseball as I think Kubiak is worth 2 losses per season below our talent level.
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Pastor Dillon


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 26, 2013 6:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Colts dont scare me, sure we will split with them 1-1 but now they are playing a 2nd place schedule plus the NFC west, I could see them going 8-8.

A team to watch is the Titans. They improved the O-Line greatly a d we all know CJ can dominate. It also happens we are thin at DT and ILB meaning a running game can be effective.
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ServantofYHWH


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PostPosted: Fri Jul 26, 2013 6:56 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We will sweep the colts this year. It's going to happen. It has to.
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