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jerseyboy257
Joined: 21 Apr 2012
Posts: 629
Location: Northern Jersey
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 Posted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 1:52 am Post subject: FIRST 2014 MOCK OF THE YEAR!!! **6/27 UPDATE** |
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Hey guys, back for another season of mocking and this time really, really soon. Too soon. I've been working on this mock for a few days now and I'm finally posting it so I can move on with my life. lol
Because there's no draft order, I simulated each teams season based upon things like last years record, the record the year before, strength of schedule, offseason additions, etc. From there, I ranked the teams based on their records. I did it this way so it's very realistic and unbiased. Once the order was set, I did not change the order around at all to make certain players fit in certain draft positions, ultimately making it more realistic. The wins and losses should even out. The order of the playoff teams (21-33) have no indication of how far they're going to go in the playoffs, but more as their regular season records.
And finally, I'd like to get this out of the way. Do not say “theres no way that this or that will happen” or “this player sucks”. Don’t pretend you’re a know it all—it’s June 2013. I looked at 5 mock drafts on here from around this time last year. The top 5 usually consisted of the following players: Matt Barkley, Tyler Wilson, Logan Thomas, Sam Montgomery, David Amerson, and Robert Woods. They ended up being around 3rd and 4th rounders. As for the actual top 5: Fisher, Jordan, Lane Johnson, and Ansah were no where to be seen. As for Joeckel, he was a borderline first, early second prospect. Only about 25% of the picks in these mocks ended up being actual first rounders, leaving about 24 non-first round grades. So don’t be so critical, the season hasn’t even started and I’m doing this for fun and boredom. Leave feedback, positive or negative, I will add analysis sometime soon, but for now I will answer any questions.
1. OAKLAND RAIDERS (2-14)- Jadeveon Clowney DE, South Carolina
2. JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS (3-13)- Teddy Bridgewater QB, Louisville
3. NEW YORK JETS (3-13)- Marquise Lee WR, USC
4. CAROLINA PANTHERS (4-12)- Aaron Lynch DE, South Florida
5. TENNESSEE TITANS (4-12)- David Fales QB, San Jose St.
6. PHILADELPHIA EAGLES (5-11)- Anthony Barr DE/OLB, UCLA
7. ARIZONA CARDINALS (5-11)- Jake Matthews OT, Texas A&M
8. CLEVELAND BROWNS (5-11)- Sammy Watkins WR, Clemson
9. BUFFALO BILLS (5-11)- Cyrus Kouandjio OT, Alabama
10. DETROIT LIONS (6-10)- Taylor Lewan OT, Michigan
11. MINNESOTA VIKINGS (6-10)- Aaron Murray QB, Georgia
12. SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (6-10) - Antonio Richardson OT, Tennessee
13. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (7-9)- Jason Verrett CB, TCU
14. NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (7-9)- Stephon Tuitt DT/DE, Notre Dame
15. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS [8-8]- Kyle Van Noy DE/OLB, BYU
16. ST. LOUIS RAMS (from WAS [8-8])- Craig Loston S, LSU
17. CHICAGO BEARS [8-8]- Bradley Roby CB, Ohio St.
18. DALLAS COWBOYS (9-7)- Ha'sean Clinton Dix S, Alabama
19. ST. LOUIS RAMS (9-7)- Anthony Johnson DT, LSU
20. BALTIMORE RAVENS (9-7)- James Hurst OT, UNC
21. MIAMI DOLPHINS (9-7)- C.J. Mosley LB, Alabama
22. TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS (10-6)- Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE, Washington
23. PITTSBURGH STEELERS (10-6)- Brandon Coleman WR, Rutgers
24. CINCINNATI BENGALS (10-6)- Ryan Shazier LB, Ohio St.
25. ATLANTA FALCONS (11-5)- Jackson Jeffcoat DE, Texas
26. NEW YORK GIANTS (11-5)- Ifo Ekpre-Olomu CB, Oregon
27. NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS (11-5)- Lamarcus Joyner CB/S, Florida St.
28. SAN FRANSISCO 49ERS (12-4)- Louis Nix III DT, Notre Dame
29. HOUSTON TEXANS (12-4)- Cyril Richardson OT/G, Baylor
30. SEATTLE SEAHAWKS (13-3)- Sean Price WR, Appalachian St.
31. GREEN BAY PACKERS (13-3)- David Yankey OT, Stanford
32. DENVER BRONCOS (14-2)- Demarcus Lawrence DE, Boise St.
One last thing: this is a mock of the 2014 NFL Draft. The one in a year. This is not set up as if the draft was tomorrow. Much of the rankings has to do with potential of that for next season and at the NFL level. Obviously if the draft was tomorrow, I wouldn't include players like Lynch and Jeffcoat. For them to be ranked at where I have them, these players need to demonstrate dominant performances throughout next season.
Last edited by jerseyboy257 on Thu Jun 27, 2013 5:20 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Jason_Bengal_Fl
Joined: 02 Aug 2006
Posts: 4201
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| Posted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 6:42 am Post subject: |
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I doubt it, but I like it!
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2015 Draft Needs: DT/DE OT, and WR in the first 3 rounds. LB and TE in the mid rounds. Guard and safety are NOT early needs! |
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ttitansfan4life
Joined: 30 Dec 2009
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Location: Delaware
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| Posted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 10:29 am Post subject: |
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Solid Titans pick.
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IDOG_det
Joined: 02 Mar 2009
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Location: #JDI
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| Posted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 11:06 am Post subject: |
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I like Lewan
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jshowers
Joined: 03 May 2013
Posts: 14893
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| Posted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 12:51 pm Post subject: |
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Not going to analyze draft positions, though there are some very questionable ones, just player selections. Couple of quick things I noticed:
HITS
- Top 3 of Clowney, Bridgewater, and Lee to their respective teams look good.
- The "Top 3" offensive tackle prospects (Matthews, Kouandjio, and Lewan) are all slotted to teams they fit well with.
- Louis Nix III, being more of a traditional NT, is not likely to go top 10 as many have predicted so far. He is a great player, but could fall down the board due to uncontrollable factors such as position value and team needs.
MISSES
- Aaron Lynch could be a high-upside draft board riser, but I don't think he goes as high as #5, and I really doubt Carolina would be in play for him. They have an outstanding D-Line with Johnson and Hardy at the ends and the Lotulelei/Kawaan Short youth infusion in the middle. With Sammy Watkins and Bradley Roby still on the board, they have better players available and bigger needs to address.
- Aaron Murray is definitely not a top-15 talent. He is a shorter, less athletic, Christian Ponder. The Vikings won't go down that road if Ponder fails to step up this year.
- I don't think Verett has a chance to show enough upside to be the #1 CB taken. He relies on solid, consistent, technically sound play but doesn't project as a shutdown CB or big time play-maker in the NFL, more of a solid #2/very good #3 corner. With the "tall, physical corners" trend, his small frame also hurts him.
- Craig Loston is a bit too limited athletically and hampered by injuries to go at #16, let alone be the top safety drafted, ESPECIALLY by St. Louis. They just picked up TJ McDonald, a strong in-the-box safety, so if they are going after a safety early it will be a rangy, ball-hawk type. Clinton-Dix or Ed Reynolds of Stanford would be much better choices there at this point.
- Lamarcus Joyner doesn't seem like a guy Bill Belichick would be high on. Don't see him in New England.
- It's highly unlikely that Sean Price enters the draft next year, IMO, and Seattle doesn't have a big need at WR after acquiring Harvin. Golden Tate is underrated, Baldwin is a very solid player, and Sidney Rice is a factor when healthy. Offensive line, particulary guard and right tackle, seem like more pressing needs.
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jerseyboy257
Joined: 21 Apr 2012
Posts: 629
Location: Northern Jersey
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| Posted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 2:23 pm Post subject: |
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| jshowers wrote: | Not going to analyze draft positions, though there are some very questionable ones, just player selections. Couple of quick things I noticed:
HITS
- Top 3 of Clowney, Bridgewater, and Lee to their respective teams look good.
- The "Top 3" offensive tackle prospects (Matthews, Kouandjio, and Lewan) are all slotted to teams they fit well with.
- Louis Nix III, being more of a traditional NT, is not likely to go top 10 as many have predicted so far. He is a great player, but could fall down the board due to uncontrollable factors such as position value and team needs.
MISSES
- Aaron Lynch could be a high-upside draft board riser, but I don't think he goes as high as #5, and I really doubt Carolina would be in play for him. They have an outstanding D-Line with Johnson and Hardy at the ends and the Lotulelei/Kawaan Short youth infusion in the middle. With Sammy Watkins and Bradley Roby still on the board, they have better players available and bigger needs to address.
- Aaron Murray is definitely not a top-15 talent. He is a shorter, less athletic, Christian Ponder. The Vikings won't go down that road if Ponder fails to step up this year.
- I don't think Verett has a chance to show enough upside to be the #1 CB taken. He relies on solid, consistent, technically sound play but doesn't project as a shutdown CB or big time play-maker in the NFL, more of a solid #2/very good #3 corner. With the "tall, physical corners" trend, his small frame also hurts him.
- Craig Loston is a bit too limited athletically and hampered by injuries to go at #16, let alone be the top safety drafted, ESPECIALLY by St. Louis. They just picked up TJ McDonald, a strong in-the-box safety, so if they are going after a safety early it will be a rangy, ball-hawk type. Clinton-Dix or Ed Reynolds of Stanford would be much better choices there at this point.
- Lamarcus Joyner doesn't seem like a guy Bill Belichick would be high on. Don't see him in New England.
- It's highly unlikely that Sean Price enters the draft next year, IMO, and Seattle doesn't have a big need at WR after acquiring Harvin. Golden Tate is underrated, Baldwin is a very solid player, and Sidney Rice is a factor when healthy. Offensive line, particulary guard and right tackle, seem like more pressing needs. |
Ok, thank you for the insightful critique. Just want to address a few points...
Firstly, it's supposed to be questionable. The most important year of their lives hasn't even begun, so I think it's unfair to come to a conclusion on who's a top (#) talent and who isn't. Like Murray. What if he continues to build upon last year and puts up really, really good numbers? What if he wins the BCS championship game? I know his height isn't ideal, but neither was Russell Wilson's or Drew Brees'. Obviously you have a negative view on Murray's game, but opinions are very erratic. Many people view him as a first round talent and he's one of the best passers in college football IMO And just remember at this time people were praising Barkley as the next year's Andrew Luck and he went in the 4th round.
edit- You say no way that Murray is top 15 talent, then you mock both Boyd and Manziel with top 10 grades.. I think Murray has a better chance than both of them to be an NFL starting QB. There are no certainties when their most important year has yet to come.
I think Aaron Lynch can definitely go top 5. Might sound weird now, but wouldn't it sound weird last year if I said Dion Jordan and Ziggy Ansah will be top 5 picks? Aaron Lynch had a dominant freshman year and has extreme upside and an athletic freak, and as we all know, those athletic freaks with large upside tend to rise immensely. The reason I have Carolina ranked so low is mainly due to their secondary, but picking that high I'd assume that, unless baring a trade down which is not included in my mock, they'd take top talent and address their secondary with F/A signings and their other picks. Hardy's contract is up at the end of the year and it's not certain whether he's getting a long-term contract, especially with their high draft position prone to elite talent. Just look at Cliff Avril last year.
I also disagree with your analysis with Verrett. He's got everything you need in a corner IMO Milliner was taken first off the board last year and Verrett is only an inch shorter (and Roby as well) but he sure doesn't play like it. He has long arms and terrific closing speed and reads plays extremely well, while also being a good tackler and good in run support. I disagree that you say he doesn't have big time play-making ability. By that, I'd assume you mean interceptions which he led the Big 12 in last year. As of right now Verrett has top 15 grades by some and can further improve his stock with continuing impressive play. If he builds upon last year's dominant season, he could be the first CB taken. He has less flaws than Roby IMO
I don't know why Belichick wouldn't be high on Joyner--I think his versatility is a huge asset as he transitions to corner this year and is an explosive talent who I believe is worthy of a first round grade with another excellent season because of his incredible speed/quickness.
Loston is definitely a questionable pick to some coming off as the top safety. As of right now Clinton-Dix is the most productive and top-rated safety, but this is a mock of the 2014 draft, not right now. I think with a healthy season, Loston can build upon last year and potentially raise his stock even higher than former teammate Ed Reid who was taken 18th overall. Loston is actually viewed as a better prospect coming into this year than Ed Reed was last year, so Loston can definitely earn a mid-first grade with an excellent season. I like what I see from him so far, I think he has excellent speed, good size, and hard hitting, and so time will tell if he can follow his old teammate's path to success in the draft process.
We'll see if Price will enter the draft when the time comes, but there's no reason to leave someone out of your mock because of that possibility. Harvin was a key acquisition for Seattle, but I don't think as highly of the other WRs as you do. Last year the Seahawks were top 10 in rushing yards, rushing defense, passing defense, but 27th in passing yards. I consider Sidney Rice and Golden Tate average at best. Seahawks already have a dominant defense, arguably the best in the league, but another offensive threat would certainly make them that much more dangerous.
Last edited by jerseyboy257 on Tue Jun 25, 2013 6:35 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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JaguarCrazy2832
Joined: 28 Jun 2008
Posts: 85447
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| Posted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 5:20 pm Post subject: |
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Love it
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Phinsnation84
Joined: 25 Jan 2013
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| Posted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 6:27 pm Post subject: |
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Playoffs + Mosley = A Happy Dolphins fan
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MNPackfan32
Joined: 22 Sep 2010
Posts: 8626
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| Posted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 8:47 pm Post subject: |
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Jackson is about as bad of a pick as it gets for Green Bay.
- Sitton and Lang are awesome at guard and are under contract for a while.
- TT drafts college LT's, Bulaga, Lang, Sherrod, EDS, Bakhtiari, Tretter, all college LT's.
- TT drafting premium positions, Pass rushers and OT's. I can't see him taking an interior OL that early. |
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jerseyboy257
Joined: 21 Apr 2012
Posts: 629
Location: Northern Jersey
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| Posted: Tue Jun 25, 2013 9:46 pm Post subject: |
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| MNPackfan32 wrote: | Jackson is about as bad of a pick as it gets for Green Bay.
- Sitton and Lang are awesome at guard and are under contract for a while.
- TT drafts college LT's, Bulaga, Lang, Sherrod, EDS, Bakhtiari, Tretter, all college LT's.
- TT drafting premium positions, Pass rushers and OT's. I can't see him taking an interior OL that early. |
Ok fair, I wasn't aware of all the line changes the packers made recently. To me the OL still has question marks, though. Bulgala has injury concerns the past two years and how well the players will perform in their new positions is yet to be seen. I think the Packers will do much better at protecting Rodgers, who was the most sacked QB in the NFL last year, but it's the run blocking that concerns me. They were awful at run blocking last year and while the OL is likely going to be improved, I think it will be decent at best. But Lang has got to be one of the worst in the league at getting to the next level. |
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MNPackfan32
Joined: 22 Sep 2010
Posts: 8626
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| Posted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 12:32 am Post subject: |
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| jerseyboy257 wrote: | | MNPackfan32 wrote: | Jackson is about as bad of a pick as it gets for Green Bay.
- Sitton and Lang are awesome at guard and are under contract for a while.
- TT drafts college LT's, Bulaga, Lang, Sherrod, EDS, Bakhtiari, Tretter, all college LT's.
- TT drafting premium positions, Pass rushers and OT's. I can't see him taking an interior OL that early. |
Ok fair, I wasn't aware of all the line changes the packers made recently. To me the OL still has question marks, though. Bulgala has injury concerns the past two years and how well the players will perform in their new positions is yet to be seen. I think the Packers will do much better at protecting Rodgers, who was the most sacked QB in the NFL last year, but it's the run blocking that concerns me. They were awful at run blocking last year and while the OL is likely going to be improved, I think it will be decent at best. But Lang has got to be one of the worst in the league at getting to the next level. |
They were actually a very respectable run blocking unit at the end of last year when DuJuan Harris averaged over 4.5 ypc. If you are unimpressed with Lang, it could be because he played next to one of the worst LT's in the NFL over the last 2 years in Marshall Newhouse , or the incredibly average C Scott Wells or the train wreck they call Jeff Saturday. Plus he had ligament and muscle tears in his left arm/elbow. And with that said he was still able to block Justin Smith and then slide to Willis to spring Harris on a big TD run. A guard won't fix anything for us. A LT or RT is all we need. |
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showtime
Joined: 17 Jan 2005
Posts: 249
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| Posted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 12:30 pm Post subject: |
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| how you ain't got a qb goin to the jets is beyond me... nice pick for my bills doe... scream @ me |
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Desperado82
Joined: 20 Feb 2010
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Location: Maryland
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| Posted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 12:41 pm Post subject: |
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Jeffcoat or Johnson (DT) would be better picks.
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jerseyboy257
Joined: 21 Apr 2012
Posts: 629
Location: Northern Jersey
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| Posted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 12:59 pm Post subject: |
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| MNPackfan32 wrote: | | jerseyboy257 wrote: | | MNPackfan32 wrote: | Jackson is about as bad of a pick as it gets for Green Bay.
- Sitton and Lang are awesome at guard and are under contract for a while.
- TT drafts college LT's, Bulaga, Lang, Sherrod, EDS, Bakhtiari, Tretter, all college LT's.
- TT drafting premium positions, Pass rushers and OT's. I can't see him taking an interior OL that early. |
Ok fair, I wasn't aware of all the line changes the packers made recently. To me the OL still has question marks, though. Bulgala has injury concerns the past two years and how well the players will perform in their new positions is yet to be seen. I think the Packers will do much better at protecting Rodgers, who was the most sacked QB in the NFL last year, but it's the run blocking that concerns me. They were awful at run blocking last year and while the OL is likely going to be improved, I think it will be decent at best. But Lang has got to be one of the worst in the league at getting to the next level. |
They were actually a very respectable run blocking unit at the end of last year when DuJuan Harris averaged over 4.5 ypc. If you are unimpressed with Lang, it could be because he played next to one of the worst LT's in the NFL over the last 2 years in Marshall Newhouse , or the incredibly average C Scott Wells or the train wreck they call Jeff Saturday. Plus he had ligament and muscle tears in his left arm/elbow. And with that said he was still able to block Justin Smith and then slide to Willis to spring Harris on a big TD run. A guard won't fix anything for us. A LT or RT is all we need. |
Okay, I'll take your word for my next update.
| showtime wrote: | | how you ain't got a qb goin to the jets is beyond me... nice pick for my bills doe... scream @ me |
Because they took Geno Smith in the last draft.
| Desperado82 wrote: | | Jeffcoat or Johnson (DT) would be better picks. |
You don't know that and I disagree. |
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Nobody
Joined: 02 Aug 2012
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Location: Final Four and counting!
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| Posted: Wed Jun 26, 2013 6:37 pm Post subject: |
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Uh, no. Way better players available. Roby, Jackson, Richardson, Nix, Clinton Dix, Van Noy, Tuitt, Coleman. Would all be better.
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