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Are my concerns about Alfred Morris justified?
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JaguarCrazy2832


Joined: 28 Jun 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2013 7:25 pm    Post subject: Are my concerns about Alfred Morris justified? Reply with quote

Hello Redskin fans. This is a fantasy football question(duh) I'm very curious about Alfred Morris' workload this year. I never trust Shanny RBs and because the team drafted 2 RBs this year, i just dont know if I can trust Alfred to get 300+ carries again this yr.

Are my concerns justified or is he still the golden RB this year for Washington?
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DCRED


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2013 7:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

While he will still carry the bulk of the workload, you are right to suspect that other backs are going to cut into his numbers overall.

Expect a third down back, most likely Helu, possibly Thompson (doubtful), Royster (slim), or another with more speed and receiving skills to be utilized this year. It has been recognized that more speed to the outside is desired for certain plays.

His numbers should be Quite respectable, but I wouldn't expect 300 carries or 1600 Yards.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2013 7:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The rule is to NEVER draft a Mike Shanahan running back early in the draft. If Morris was available after a few rounds, take him to be that 2nd or 3rd RB. This year the Redskins will have Helu back from injury, Royster returning and drafted two running backs, so even though Morris is the front runner to carry the load again this year, you just never know with a Shanahan backfield.
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JaguarCrazy2832


Joined: 28 Jun 2008
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PostPosted: Sat Jun 15, 2013 9:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
The rule is to NEVER draft a Mike Shanahan running back early in the draft. If Morris was available after a few rounds, take him to be that 2nd or 3rd RB. This year the Redskins will have Helu back from injury, Royster returning and drafted two running backs, so even though Morris is the front runner to carry the load again this year, you just never know with a Shanahan backfield.


And the drafting of the RBs is a major concern for me, the fact he drafted 2 plus having Royster and Helu makes me very nervous to take him as my primary back which is what he would be bc he probably is going round 1
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Brian23


Joined: 08 Feb 2010
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 12:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

JaguarCrazy2832 wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
The rule is to NEVER draft a Mike Shanahan running back early in the draft. If Morris was available after a few rounds, take him to be that 2nd or 3rd RB. This year the Redskins will have Helu back from injury, Royster returning and drafted two running backs, so even though Morris is the front runner to carry the load again this year, you just never know with a Shanahan backfield.


And the drafting of the RBs is a major concern for me, the fact he drafted 2 plus having Royster and Helu makes me very nervous to take him as my primary back which is what he would be bc he probably is going round 1


Its more indicative of his distaste for Roy and Evan. Roy can't stay healthy and Royster isn't viewed as a good backup.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 4:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brian23 wrote:
JaguarCrazy2832 wrote:
turtle28 wrote:
The rule is to NEVER draft a Mike Shanahan running back early in the draft. If Morris was available after a few rounds, take him to be that 2nd or 3rd RB. This year the Redskins will have Helu back from injury, Royster returning and drafted two running backs, so even though Morris is the front runner to carry the load again this year, you just never know with a Shanahan backfield.


And the drafting of the RBs is a major concern for me, the fact he drafted 2 plus having Royster and Helu makes me very nervous to take him as my primary back which is what he would be bc he probably is going round 1


Its more indicative of his distaste for Roy and Evan. Roy can't stay healthy and Royster isn't viewed as a good backup.
It's also the truth that Shanahan constantly drafts late round RBs to develop. He's only had two steady Rbs in the last 20 years of being a HC, pro bowlers Terrell Davis & Clinton Portis. Even if Helu and Royster were healthy all last year, he still would have drafted a RB or 2. He can't be too worried about injury history with backs because he drafted Chris Thompson- the most injured RB in the draft over the past two seasons...

http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/football-insider/wp/2013/06/07/roy-helu-finally-returns-to-full-strength/

Quote:
"Helu brings a lot to the table," Shanahan said. "I'm glad he's feeling good. He has practiced the last couple of days. He has looked good in practice. ... It's fun to have him out there. Hopefully he keeps on getting better and better, but anytime you have a guy that weighs [215] pounds, he's under that 4.5-[second], 40 [yard dash range], has receiving skills and the opportunity to make a big play, it's good to have him back and a chance to compete."


... Sounds like Shanahan is excited about Helu, not detested. I don't think he feels that way about any of his players on the team since they got rid of Haynesworth & McNabb
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Brian23


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 7:49 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The problem with Helu isn't talent or ability, its whether he can remain healthy. He's not viewed as a mainstay back but a good 3rd down change of pace type, and we're still waiting to see if he can maintain himself in that role.

Royster is gonna have to be "the guy" on a team to really be any good. He's a solid RB, but he's a volume guy. Until he gets 20 rushes a game, he's not gonna do much for you.

EDIT: Also, when has Shanny EVER been negative about a player he's talked about in the media? Even when we know they're not bringing much, he's always spoke glowingly of everyone.
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Marcus21


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 8:44 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Im hoping Morris has less carries and yards. 200-250 carries and 1000-1200 yards would be perfect. Morris will not be long for this league if he continues to carry the ball 300+ times. His body will break down like so many before him. I would like to see Morris be used more toward the end of games when we have a lead to pound Ds. We need a balanced attack early in games a good mix of Morris/Helu/thompson!!! I like the mix of power and speed.
I personally think Royster will be cut. If thompson can get healthy, I think he will make the 53 with Jamison on PS. If Thompson needs more time to heal, he will be PUPed and Jamison will make the 53........Just my opinion.
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 8:47 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Brian23 wrote:
The problem with Helu isn't talent or ability, its whether he can remain healthy. He's not viewed as a mainstay back but a good 3rd down change of pace type, and we're still waiting to see if he can maintain himself in that role.

Royster is gonna have to be "the guy" on a team to really be any good. He's a solid RB, but he's a volume guy. Until he gets 20 rushes a game, he's not gonna do much for you.

EDIT: Also, when has Shanny EVER been negative about a player he's talked about in the media? Even when we know they're not bringing much, he's always spoke glowingly of everyone.
Well he was negative about two ex-Qbs who he traded for. It just seems everyone in Redskins Nation is giving Chris Thompson a pass and calling Helu injury prone.

Just doesn't make sense to me.

When has Thompson ever stayed healthy and that was in the acc?
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turtle28


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 8:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Marcus21 wrote:
Im hoping Morris has less carries and yards. 200-250 carries and 1000-1200 yards would be perfect. Morris will not be long for this league if he continues to carry the ball 300+ times. His body will break down like so many before him. I would like to see Morris be used more toward the end of games when we have a lead to pound Ds. We need a balanced attack early in games a good mix of Morris/Helu/thompson!!! I like the mix of power and speed.

I personally think Royster will be cut. If thompson can get healthy, I think he will make the 53 with Jamison on PS. If Thompson needs more time to heal, he will be PUPed and Jamison will make the 53........Just my opinion.
I could see that happening, I do think we will throw the ball more this year and use more players and different sets this season because Helu is back. I'd like to see Morris' and RG3's work load in the run game lessened because I'd also would like to see each player play into their 30s.
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aceinthehouse


Joined: 23 Dec 2010
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 9:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Morris will get less carries, but it won't be because Helu, Thompson, Jamison or Royster are cutting into his time.

It will be because we're throwing the ball more.

Now running will still be our bread & butter & he'll still get his numbers, but I see RG3 throwing the ball more as he will get more comfortable in the Offense.

We had 961 Offensive Plays last year.
442 Passing
519 Rushing
-----------------
That's 961 total plays.
That's 54% Rushing & 46% Passing.

I am expecting that number to swing at least to 50-50, if not more 55% Passing-to-45 Rushing.
But still very balanced none-the-less.

Now a 4% increase in passing (from 46-to-50%) may not seem like much to you?
But that increased amount would add 38 extra Passing attempts from RG3. Giving him 480 passing attempts VS the 442 he had this year. (or as a team I should say..cause Cousins was in as well)

But if we passed @55% vs Rushed @45%?
That would be 529 Passing Attempts vs the 442 from last year.

RG3 threw 3,200 Passing yards last season.
That's 7.23 Yards per Attempt (complete or not) @46% on attempts.

If his number increased to 55% attempts?

He(RG3) would go from throwing 3,200 yards to 3,830, if he had the exact same type of season without ANY improvement what-so-ever.

Just from increasing his attempts from 46% to 55%.

Alfred Morris would go from 1,613 yards on 519 rush attempts as a team. (@54%)
down to 45%.

That's 432 rushing attempts @45%.
1,343 rushing yards on the season, if he has the exact same type of season.

So just taking the exact same seasons from BOTH RG3 & Morris, but changing the attempts as a team from 54% rush VS 46% pass in 2012-----to-----55% Pass VS 45% Rush in 2013.

RG3 would have 3,830 Yards passing &
Morris would have 1,343 yards rushing.



(keep in mind..I was using just team stats.....Cousins, Royster or no other player was calculated in this at all.....This was just to give you an example of the differential in stats by passing more...That's all)


My point in all this?


We could still use Morris in the SAME WAY as we did last season, but just decrease his load by style of play. 55% Pass vs 45% rush

And he would still hit 1,343 yards and probably 8-10 TD's as well.

Because if we continue to maintain the 54% rush VS 46% pass?
Then we have to use Helu, Royster, Thompson or whomever.


Question is...What's Shanahan's plan?
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markrc99


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 9:54 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

JaguarCrazy2832 wrote: "And the drafting of the RBs is a major concern for me, the fact he drafted 2 plus having Royster and Helu makes me very nervous to take him as my primary back which is what he would be bc he probably is going round 1."

I agree with most everything that's been said, there isn't a guy on the roster who's going to threaten Morris' role as the featured back. Helu runs real tentative and he still got hurt & as noted, is likely competing with Chris Thompson to be their down & distance back. Royster looked much leaner to me last year, perhaps in an attempt to add a half-step. The guy I think will stick is Jamison, because he can do both. Again, Shanahan drafted Morris because he didn't have that workhorse. The guys they drafted this year are more suited to provide that home run threat out of the backfield.

This is just my opinion, but I think you're missing out on the real fun. Have you ever tried "NFL- Call The Play"? You try this, believe me, you won't go back to stat tracking. It's live competition, you choose a game & score by correctly determining whether the play is run or pass. You score higher by determining the ball carrier or rec'r (X,Y or Z) & the area of the field the ball is thrown. Score higher still by anticipating the blitz! There's no dialing the sack, but those are still scored. I think it was selecting pass & the QB that gets the player the most pts. The 1st time I saw it or something like it was about 15 yrs ago, so what they're doing with it now, I cant say. But today, you can create your own league or group & even download an app for your mobile phone. Ha-ha. Given that it's played in real time, the real trick is to get as good a pre-snap look as you can. If you prefer to entertain, nothing is going to get your family & friends over more than this. http://www.nfl.com/live/call-the-play
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Marcus21


Joined: 19 Mar 2012
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 10:05 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

aceinthehouse wrote:
Morris will get less carries, but it won't be because Helu, Thompson, Jamison or Royster are cutting into his time.

It will be because we're throwing the ball more.

Now running will still be our bread & butter & he'll still get his numbers, but I see RG3 throwing the ball more as he will get more comfortable in the Offense.

We had 961 Offensive Plays last year.
442 Passing
519 Rushing
-----------------
That's 961 total plays.
That's 54% Rushing & 46% Passing.

I am expecting that number to swing at least to 50-50, if not more 55% Passing-to-45 Rushing.
But still very balanced none-the-less.

Now a 4% increase in passing (from 46-to-50%) may not seem like much to you?
But that increased amount would add 38 extra Passing attempts from RG3. Giving him 480 passing attempts VS the 442 he had this year. (or as a team I should say..cause Cousins was in as well)

But if we passed @55% vs Rushed @45%?
That would be 529 Passing Attempts vs the 442 from last year.

RG3 threw 3,200 Passing yards last season.
That's 7.23 Yards per Attempt (complete or not) @46% on attempts.

If his number increased to 55% attempts?

He(RG3) would go from throwing 3,200 yards to 3,830, if he had the exact same type of season without ANY improvement what-so-ever.

Just from increasing his attempts from 46% to 55%.

Alfred Morris would go from 1,613 yards on 519 rush attempts as a team. (@54%)
down to 45%.

That's 432 rushing attempts @45%.
1,343 rushing yards on the season, if he has the exact same type of season.

So just taking the exact same seasons from BOTH RG3 & Morris, but changing the attempts as a team from 54% rush VS 46% pass in 2012-----to-----55% Pass VS 45% Rush in 2013.

RG3 would have 3,830 Yards passing &
Morris would have 1,343 yards rushing.



(keep in mind..I was using just team stats.....Cousins, Royster or no other player was calculated in this at all.....This was just to give you an example of the differential in stats by passing more...That's all)


My point in all this?


We could still use Morris in the SAME WAY as we did last season, but just decrease his load by style of play. 55% Pass vs 45% rush

And he would still hit 1,343 yards and probably 8-10 TD's as well.

Because if we continue to maintain the 54% rush VS 46% pass?
Then we have to use Helu, Royster, Thompson or whomever.


Question is...What's Shanahan's plan?
\


We are a run first team. Our passing game is built through the run game, with play action and misdirection boots. We even pass out of the Zone read. Even when Shanny had one of the greatest QBs in the league (John Elway), he had a run first offense. I expect that we will always run more than we throw....just my opinion.
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Brian23


Joined: 08 Feb 2010
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 10:15 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

turtle28 wrote:
Brian23 wrote:
The problem with Helu isn't talent or ability, its whether he can remain healthy. He's not viewed as a mainstay back but a good 3rd down change of pace type, and we're still waiting to see if he can maintain himself in that role.

Royster is gonna have to be "the guy" on a team to really be any good. He's a solid RB, but he's a volume guy. Until he gets 20 rushes a game, he's not gonna do much for you.

EDIT: Also, when has Shanny EVER been negative about a player he's talked about in the media? Even when we know they're not bringing much, he's always spoke glowingly of everyone.
Well he was negative about two ex-Qbs who he traded for. It just seems everyone in Redskins Nation is giving Chris Thompson a pass and calling Helu injury prone.

Just doesn't make sense to me.

When has Thompson ever stayed healthy and that was in the acc?


Who was the second QB he traded for?

And he always spoke highly of McNabb, even when we knew he was full of [inappropriate/removed].

And I'm not giving Thompson a pass, but Thompson being injury prone has [inappropriate/removed] all to do with Helu being injury prone as well.
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Brian23


Joined: 08 Feb 2010
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 10:16 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Marcus21 wrote:
aceinthehouse wrote:
Morris will get less carries, but it won't be because Helu, Thompson, Jamison or Royster are cutting into his time.

It will be because we're throwing the ball more.

Now running will still be our bread & butter & he'll still get his numbers, but I see RG3 throwing the ball more as he will get more comfortable in the Offense.

We had 961 Offensive Plays last year.
442 Passing
519 Rushing
-----------------
That's 961 total plays.
That's 54% Rushing & 46% Passing.

I am expecting that number to swing at least to 50-50, if not more 55% Passing-to-45 Rushing.
But still very balanced none-the-less.

Now a 4% increase in passing (from 46-to-50%) may not seem like much to you?
But that increased amount would add 38 extra Passing attempts from RG3. Giving him 480 passing attempts VS the 442 he had this year. (or as a team I should say..cause Cousins was in as well)

But if we passed @55% vs Rushed @45%?
That would be 529 Passing Attempts vs the 442 from last year.

RG3 threw 3,200 Passing yards last season.
That's 7.23 Yards per Attempt (complete or not) @46% on attempts.

If his number increased to 55% attempts?

He(RG3) would go from throwing 3,200 yards to 3,830, if he had the exact same type of season without ANY improvement what-so-ever.

Just from increasing his attempts from 46% to 55%.

Alfred Morris would go from 1,613 yards on 519 rush attempts as a team. (@54%)
down to 45%.

That's 432 rushing attempts @45%.
1,343 rushing yards on the season, if he has the exact same type of season.

So just taking the exact same seasons from BOTH RG3 & Morris, but changing the attempts as a team from 54% rush VS 46% pass in 2012-----to-----55% Pass VS 45% Rush in 2013.

RG3 would have 3,830 Yards passing &
Morris would have 1,343 yards rushing.



(keep in mind..I was using just team stats.....Cousins, Royster or no other player was calculated in this at all.....This was just to give you an example of the differential in stats by passing more...That's all)


My point in all this?


We could still use Morris in the SAME WAY as we did last season, but just decrease his load by style of play. 55% Pass vs 45% rush

And he would still hit 1,343 yards and probably 8-10 TD's as well.

Because if we continue to maintain the 54% rush VS 46% pass?
Then we have to use Helu, Royster, Thompson or whomever.


Question is...What's Shanahan's plan?
\


We are a run first team. Our passing game is built through the run game, with play action and misdirection boots. We even pass out of the Zone read. Even when Shanny had one of the greatest QBs in the league (John Elway), he had a run first offense. I expect that we will always run more than we throw....just my opinion.


Not a chance, even in Denver he was slowly but surely moving to a more passing offense, its just how the game's played today.

I expect, though, he'll try and keep it around 55/45 pass/run, not go 60/40 like he did one year in Denver with Cutler. That all depends on how Griffin develops though.
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