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How do you rate the level of a bust?

 
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thebestever6


Joined: 03 Jan 2008
Posts: 2096
PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2013 6:25 am    Post subject: How do you rate the level of a bust? Reply with quote

I just never got the bust label in general. For instance, say Trent Richardson is just a above average starter for his career. Do you consider him a bust? I mean Cleveland could of dished out some picks and gotten a franchise Qb in RG3.Also to tie this to a Denver question say Brock Osweiler is an average starter what does that rank as an overall bust. I mean say he's a mediocre Jake Plummer qb five years after Manning retires too me that's a bigger bust to a Franchise than say a Jamarcus Russell. You've basically wasted the resources to develop a Qb behind the arguably the greatest Qb of all time. You also wasted years after Manning while the team is still a top tier talent to win a championship. I'm sure Denver is going to pass on great Qbs between last years draft and next years draft. I think people compare too much to a bust being equated to money and the players they could of had rather than the broader picture.
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BroncoinGermany


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2013 10:39 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

To me, the degree with which a player can be labeled a bust depends a) on where he was drafted. Where one is picked automatically creates expectations, whether that is fair or unfair does not matter. Also, what is factoring into the assessment is b) what the team had to give up to select that prospect. Lastly and to a smaller degree - as this is very variable laden and vague -, c) one has to look at what level the players drafted around him have produced.

Examples:

a) A top 10 pick has to have reached all pro level at his respective position in 3-4 years in order to have been a justified top 10 pick and thus not a bust. It's as simple as that.

b) If RGIII does not reach all pro level, does not play at that level consistently and does not win at least one Super Bowl, he should be considered a bust for what the Redskins gave up for him. Conversely, based on the resources picked into that one pick, Luck is not under as much pressure even though he was drafted higher.

c) We could have gotten Hightower, Mercilus, Zeitler, Perry, Smith, Jenkins, Martin, Wilson, Quick, Fleener and Upshow but instead traded back and got Wolfe. A couple of players had good years, even were all pro at their position (Martin), yet Wolfe was good as well. Is the Wolfe pick a bust pick because Martin went crazy? I'd say no since BPA at a position of need at that time has to be considered while judging whether Wolfe was indeed as good of a choice as Martin could have been.
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broncos67


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2013 4:38 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I think it starts with general playing time. If a guy gets picked in the Top 10 for example, and then fails to ever play serious time....he's automatically a bust. Now, just getting playing time means nothing, it's just step one. If a guy is Top 10, plays, but plays at a low level or around league average for the position...ehh that's really not so good either, and probably makes him a bust. Anything past that I think moves away from the conversation.
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Donut


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PostPosted: Fri Jun 14, 2013 5:53 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

thebestever6 wrote:
I just never got the bust label in general. For instance, say Trent Richardson is just a above average starter for his career. Do you consider him a bust? I mean Cleveland could of dished out some picks and gotten a franchise Qb in RG3.

I'd say he didnt live up to his pick. He's still a contributor for the team. So its not that bad though RB high is a bad idea.
thebestever6 wrote:
Also to tie this to a Denver question say Brock Osweiler is an average starter what does that rank as an overall bust. I mean say he's a mediocre Jake Plummer qb five years after Manning retires too me that's a bigger bust to a Franchise than say a Jamarcus Russell.

He's not a bust at all. A 2nd rounder about 50% of the time makes it to a 2nd contract w/ a team. He's a starter at QB it isn't at all. And nno way in hell is it bad as Russell. Russell financially messed the team up and continued to make them suck. He's the worst #1 pick ever.
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elliot878


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PostPosted: Sun Jun 16, 2013 6:16 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

draft pick / salary in relation to production. Then you have to factor in development year to year.

Von Miller - 2nd pick, super productive. Not a bust.

Jarvis Moss - 18th pick, no production, not much playing time. Huge bust.

Tim Crowder - 2nd rounder, played early on, looking like not a bust, never continued developing. Bust.



There are certain guys in win-win situations. Chris Harris/Wes Woodyard made the team as a rookie free agent. Making the team alone, good job scouting department. Chris Harris and Woodyard turn into highly productive players, wow here's a raise for all the scouts.

You can also lump in lower level free agents, guys playing for vet minimum who play over their heads into this win-win category.

Then you have the less common in football, but more common in baseball and basketball signings. The no one can live up to that contract and its going to look like an awful signing in a couple years. This is more common in baseball than any other sport, where old dudes get 10 year contracts for 20+ mil a year, your A-Rod, Pujols, Hamilton type contracts. This is the worst level of bust in my book, because its not just the player wearing down, its front office incompetence, which makes you face palm as a fan.
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Reaver


Joined: 16 Dec 2009
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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2013 1:03 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Top 10 pick:

Not necessarily All-Pro (don't like only 2 players get selected for all-pro every year? That's a really high bar), but I would say 2 Pro Bowls and five years of starting is my bar for a top 10 pick not being claimed a 'bust'

First round (picks 10-32):

Starting player for at least five years, one Pro Bowl, makes second contract offer

Second round:
Starts by their sophomore season. Makes second contract offer. Not necessarily Pro-Bowl caliber.

Third round:
Starts at least two seasons in their career. Contributes (even as a backup) for at least 4-5 years in the league.

Fourth round:
Provides depth and has shown to be a viable backup alternative if the starter has gone down. Plays in the league at least 3 years.

Fifth round:
Makes the team and is at least a 2nd stringer.

Sixth round:
Lands a position on the final 53-man roster (more than practice squad).

Seventh round:
At least makes the practice squad (doesn't get cut)
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BroncoinGermany


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 17, 2013 2:41 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Reaver wrote:
Top 10 pick:

Not necessarily All-Pro (don't like only 2 players get selected for all-pro every year? That's a really high bar), but I would say 2 Pro Bowls and five years of starting is my bar for a top 10 pick not being claimed a 'bust'

First round (picks 10-32):

Starting player for at least five years, one Pro Bowl, makes second contract offer

Second round:
Starts by their sophomore season. Makes second contract offer. Not necessarily Pro-Bowl caliber.

Third round:
Starts at least two seasons in their career. Contributes (even as a backup) for at least 4-5 years in the league.

Fourth round:
Provides depth and has shown to be a viable backup alternative if the starter has gone down. Plays in the league at least 3 years.

Fifth round:
Makes the team and is at least a 2nd stringer.

Sixth round:
Lands a position on the final 53-man roster (more than practice squad).

Seventh round:
At least makes the practice squad (doesn't get cut)


That's quite convincing. Makes the most sense so far.
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thebestever6


Joined: 03 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2013 12:56 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

BroncoinGermany wrote:
Reaver wrote:
Top 10 pick:

Not necessarily All-Pro (don't like only 2 players get selected for all-pro every year? That's a really high bar), but I would say 2 Pro Bowls and five years of starting is my bar for a top 10 pick not being claimed a 'bust'

First round (picks 10-32):

Starting player for at least five years, one Pro Bowl, makes second contract offer

Second round:
Starts by their sophomore season. Makes second contract offer. Not necessarily Pro-Bowl caliber.

Third round:
Starts at least two seasons in their career. Contributes (even as a backup) for at least 4-5 years in the league.

Fourth round:
Provides depth and has shown to be a viable backup alternative if the starter has gone down. Plays in the league at least 3 years.

Fifth round:
Makes the team and is at least a 2nd stringer.

Sixth round:
Lands a position on the final 53-man roster (more than practice squad).

Seventh round:
At least makes the practice squad (doesn't get cut)


That's quite convincing. Makes the most sense so far.

The problem I have with this is it just pigeons holes players. Maybe I'm naive but the players who are mentored by great players and have a high upside I expect greater production from. Like The two safeties Moore and Carter I expect more from them because they got to learn from one of the greatest safeties ever to play for a year and champ. I expect big things from Webster because Champ is aging and we drafted him as a future replacement in my opinion. I also expect more from Brock because he's the replacement for manning. I keep hearing Brock is in the perfect situation I expect higher results than a normal second round pick.
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Reaver


Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 419
PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2013 9:23 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

thebestever6 wrote:
BroncoinGermany wrote:
Reaver wrote:
Top 10 pick:

Not necessarily All-Pro (don't like only 2 players get selected for all-pro every year? That's a really high bar), but I would say 2 Pro Bowls and five years of starting is my bar for a top 10 pick not being claimed a 'bust'

First round (picks 10-32):

Starting player for at least five years, one Pro Bowl, makes second contract offer

Second round:
Starts by their sophomore season. Makes second contract offer. Not necessarily Pro-Bowl caliber.

Third round:
Starts at least two seasons in their career. Contributes (even as a backup) for at least 4-5 years in the league.

Fourth round:
Provides depth and has shown to be a viable backup alternative if the starter has gone down. Plays in the league at least 3 years.

Fifth round:
Makes the team and is at least a 2nd stringer.

Sixth round:
Lands a position on the final 53-man roster (more than practice squad).

Seventh round:
At least makes the practice squad (doesn't get cut)


That's quite convincing. Makes the most sense so far.

The problem I have with this is it just pigeons holes players. Maybe I'm naive but the players who are mentored by great players and have a high upside I expect greater production from. Like The two safeties Moore and Carter I expect more from them because they got to learn from one of the greatest safeties ever to play for a year and champ. I expect big things from Webster because Champ is aging and we drafted him as a future replacement in my opinion. I also expect more from Brock because he's the replacement for manning. I keep hearing Brock is in the perfect situation I expect higher results than a normal second round pick.

The young guys may learn some leadership skills from the veterans, but the older guys don't really teach. Case(s) in point: Peyton Manning never 'taught' an heir in Indianapolis. In fact, they went 2-14 when he didn't play. Champ Bailey never 'taught' an heir either.

The coaches don't really teach, either. By the time players make it to the NFL, their fundamentals should be down. Younger players that observe Champ or Peyton can pick up on how they carry themselves and what kind of work ethic they have, but Champ can't teach Kayvon Webster to be a good CB and Peyton Manning can't teach Brock Osweiler to be a good QB.
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The Helicopter


Joined: 31 Dec 2012
Posts: 197
PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:37 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

How can you label a player as a bust when the front office is the one that evaluated, graded, and labeled the talent? IMO it's all on the FO, not the player. The FO is the one that busted, the player has no choice in the matter.
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Reaver


Joined: 16 Dec 2009
Posts: 419
PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2013 10:52 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

The Helicopter wrote:
How can you label a player as a bust when the front office is the one that evaluated, graded, and labeled the talent? IMO it's all on the FO, not the player. The FO is the one that busted, the player has no choice in the matter.

They both bust? I disagree that it's all on the FO and none on the player. I don't think the Raiders made a huge mistake by drafting JaMarcus Russell - most thought he was well worth the #1 pick. The FO couldn't have anticipated him being a lazy piece of crap to weigh over 300 lbs and sippin' purple drank. I believe JaMarcus failed the Raiders organization, not the other way around.

I completely agree that the FO is to blame for improper scouting ~75% of the time, but sometimes it is impossible to predict a player sabotaging themselves. Mark Sanchez is a curious product of both parties failing each other.
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thebestever6


Joined: 03 Jan 2008
Posts: 2096
PostPosted: Tue Jun 18, 2013 9:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Reaver wrote:
thebestever6 wrote:
BroncoinGermany wrote:
Reaver wrote:
Top 10 pick:

Not necessarily All-Pro (don't like only 2 players get selected for all-pro every year? That's a really high bar), but I would say 2 Pro Bowls and five years of starting is my bar for a top 10 pick not being claimed a 'bust'

First round (picks 10-32):

Starting player for at least five years, one Pro Bowl, makes second contract offer

Second round:
Starts by their sophomore season. Makes second contract offer. Not necessarily Pro-Bowl caliber.

Third round:
Starts at least two seasons in their career. Contributes (even as a backup) for at least 4-5 years in the league.

Fourth round:
Provides depth and has shown to be a viable backup alternative if the starter has gone down. Plays in the league at least 3 years.

Fifth round:
Makes the team and is at least a 2nd stringer.

Sixth round:
Lands a position on the final 53-man roster (more than practice squad).

Seventh round:
At least makes the practice squad (doesn't get cut)


That's quite convincing. Makes the most sense so far.

The problem I have with this is it just pigeons holes players. Maybe I'm naive but the players who are mentored by great players and have a high upside I expect greater production from. Like The two safeties Moore and Carter I expect more from them because they got to learn from one of the greatest safeties ever to play for a year and champ. I expect big things from Webster because Champ is aging and we drafted him as a future replacement in my opinion. I also expect more from Brock because he's the replacement for manning. I keep hearing Brock is in the perfect situation I expect higher results than a normal second round pick.

The young guys may learn some leadership skills from the veterans, but the older guys don't really teach. Case(s) in point: Peyton Manning never 'taught' an heir in Indianapolis. In fact, they went 2-14 when he didn't play. Champ Bailey never 'taught' an heir either.

The coaches don't really teach, either. By the time players make it to the NFL, their fundamentals should be down. Younger players that observe Champ or Peyton can pick up on how they carry themselves and what kind of work ethic they have, but Champ can't teach Kayvon Webster to be a good CB and Peyton Manning can't teach Brock Osweiler to be a good QB.

I can't agree with this In Indy colts never drafted a qb above the 5th round the talent dropped off. And elite players study way differently than average players. Manning knows how to read coverages pre snap and post snap like no other. He also adjust the line, Rbs etc.
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