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Realistic expectations for JJ Watt

 
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Pastor Dillon


Joined: 12 Jan 2007
Posts: 9712
Location: Mountain Home, Arkansas
PostPosted: Sun Jun 09, 2013 3:45 pm    Post subject: Realistic expectations for JJ Watt Reply with quote

We all know how dominate JJ Watt was last season, which just happens to be his 2nd season. He is ONLY 24 years old and he has proven he can take a game over like no one else

20.5 Sacks and 16 PDs????? Pure Crazy

So what are his numbers going to look like this season? To hear him tell it, he would just assume forget how horrible last year was for him and he is finally 100% and ready to play football

here are a few questions:

Do we have enough of a pass rush to keep him from being doubled teamed every play? Does it even matter if he is double teamed? Was last season a fluke?

Are we looking at a guy who can realistically lead the NFL in sacks every season or will 2013 be a 10-12 sack type year?
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ServantofYHWH


Joined: 25 Jan 2010
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 09, 2013 4:27 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Slight to moderate regression. Hard to repeat the best season a defensive linemen ever has had.

I see Watt being a 10-12 sacks a year guy.
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PAtexansFAN99


Joined: 04 Jan 2007
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PostPosted: Sun Jun 09, 2013 11:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

So long as he remains in wade phillips defense, I expect watt to post at least 15 sacks a year, meaning that is the minimum. If they choose to double team him every down they'll get beat elsewhere. Watt's a pass rushing monster. He'll get there
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Texans02


Joined: 11 Mar 2005
Posts: 1764
Location: HOU+ATX
PostPosted: Mon Jun 10, 2013 10:43 am    Post subject: Re: Realistic expectations for JJ Watt Reply with quote

Pastor Dillon wrote:
Do we have enough of a pass rush to keep him from being doubled teamed every play? Does it even matter if he is double teamed? Was last season a fluke?


Depends, with Barwin moved, we'll have to see how the new crew performs. Mercilus looked promising. I think Watt can be productive despite extra attention. Last season wasn't a fluke, but I wouldn't bet on it being repeatable year after year either. If he did maintain that level for 5+ years, he would down as the best DLine in history bar none.

Quote:
Are we looking at a guy who can realistically lead the NFL in sacks every season or will 2013 be a 10-12 sack type year?


I hope he goes off and becomes legendary. But more realistically, I think he is a 10-12 sack guy who is a constant threat to bat down passes.
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Apollo Stallion


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PostPosted: Mon Jun 10, 2013 3:49 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Personally, I could care less about defensive stats. As far as I'm concerned, the Texans best game of the season was week 7 when we killed the Ravens 43-13 and Watt was relatively quiet with 2 ordinary tackles while Antonio racked up 2 sacks, and Barwin sacked Flacco for a safety one and hit him 4 times. I'm not ready to go back to the Mario Williams worship years where it was more important to have "a beast" to drive jersey sales than a fully functional defense operating on all cylinders. Simple fact is that this defense was better in 2011 (17.4 points per game) than it was in 2012 (20.7) and it is generally not a good thing to have a singular pass rushing threat as none of the top 3 in 2011 even made the playoffs (Allen 22, Ware 19.5, Babin 18.0).

Watt obviously brings much more to the table than just rushing the passer, but I think we need to be comfortable with the fact that he could have a much better season next year even if he tallies somewhere in between the 5.5 he got as a rookie and 20.5 last year, especially he enables Mercilus, Reed, Smith, T. Williams or others to approach double digits by taking on more blockers and run responsibility. I'd rather get to 50 sacks split between 3 double digit contributors and another 16-20 split amongst the rest than with JJ accounting for 47% like last year. Hell, I'd also be happy dropping the overall sack total if we could crack into the 30 or even 40 turnover realm likely driven by safeties who punish QBs for throwing balls in play to avoid pressure.
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amazingandre


Joined: 16 Dec 2007
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Location: Elkhorn, WI
PostPosted: Mon Jun 10, 2013 5:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Apollo Stallion wrote:
Personally, I could care less about defensive stats. As far as I'm concerned, the Texans best game of the season was week 7 when we killed the Ravens 43-13 and Watt was relatively quiet with 2 ordinary tackles while Antonio racked up 2 sacks, and Barwin sacked Flacco for a safety one and hit him 4 times. I'm not ready to go back to the Mario Williams worship years where it was more important to have "a beast" to drive jersey sales than a fully functional defense operating on all cylinders. Simple fact is that this defense was better in 2011 (17.4 points per game) than it was in 2012 (20.7) and it is generally not a good thing to have a singular pass rushing threat as none of the top 3 in 2011 even made the playoffs (Allen 22, Ware 19.5, Babin 18.0).

Watt obviously brings much more to the table than just rushing the passer, but I think we need to be comfortable with the fact that he could have a much better season next year even if he tallies somewhere in between the 5.5 he got as a rookie and 20.5 last year, especially he enables Mercilus, Reed, Smith, T. Williams or others to approach double digits by taking on more blockers and run responsibility. I'd rather get to 50 sacks split between 3 double digit contributors and another 16-20 split amongst the rest than with JJ accounting for 47% like last year. Hell, I'd also be happy dropping the overall sack total if we could crack into the 30 or even 40 turnover realm likely driven by safeties who punish QBs for throwing balls in play to avoid pressure.


I think youre being rather short sighted in your analysis. The defense as a whole was worse because Cushing was not there. The way I see it is, let watt continue his dominance and add Brian Cushing and we will be even better than 2011.
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