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Will the Hunter hunt again?
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How many sacks will Cole produce in 2013?
0-4
10%
 10%  [ 3 ]
5-8
65%
 65%  [ 19 ]
9-12
17%
 17%  [ 5 ]
12+
6%
 6%  [ 2 ]
Total Votes : 29

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furti


Joined: 10 Jan 2008
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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 3:31 pm    Post subject: Will the Hunter hunt again? Reply with quote

Will the Hunter hunt again?



This post has been inspired by the mock offseasons Iíve read over the last couple of months, where Cole got moved through a trade. Since Iím pretty much obsessed with statistics and the fact I do similar things for living, Iíve tried to gather data from recent years, where a good to great pash rusher had a down season and was able to bounce back and post good to great numbers later in his career. Iíve put together a list of players who had poor sack numbers (under 5.5 sacks) in a year with at least 12 games started at around the age of Trent Cole and evaluated the numbers.

Everything is based on only numbers (via NFL.com), scheme changes, injuries, coaching staff changes are not taken into account. None of this wants to prove anything, since the performances of the players can not be projected by simple statistics, this is only for fun and to inject some optimism to the posters hanging around here who donít feel Cole can contribute.

I feel different.

I recall the majority of the forum defend him and calling him one of the most underrated DE-s in the league Ė and rightfully so. With 71 career sacks, the four time double digit sack artist has a 0.62 sack/games started metric (S/GS) over the course of his career. This equates to 8.9 sacks on an average base, which is pretty impressive - especially from a 5th round pick.

But, in 2012 he had a Ąbad seasonĒ. A historically bad, even his rookie year he posted more sacks with only 7 started games. His 0.19 sacks/ games started (S/GS) indicates a terrible season. There were several factors, like the hand injury he played with the full year, the overall terrible play of the team, the scheme changes, coaching caroussel and last but not least his age. We witnessed year in year out that he seemed to run out of gas at the end of the seasons due to the high amount of snaps he was playing.


He has some obstacles this year. New coaching staff, new scheme Ė where he is not supposed to be an ideal fit even though we still donít know what exactly Davis and Kelly are going to run. And of course his age. I donít think he is necessarily a bad match in terms of scheme, since he was regarded more of a 3-4 OLB coming out of college and even though he played 4-3 DE his entire pro career, Iím pretty sure he can loose some weight to regain some extra athletism. Right now, we donít know whether he is the starter at the primary pass rusher position in 2013, but Iím pretty sure even he is not, he will still have substantial number of snaps. Based on the first days of OTA, he seems to be the starter though. Therefore Iíve based my metric on games started instead of just games played since I think this represents the calculation better. So to the numbers...


There are 5 pass rushers who managed to rebound after a poor season. They all were on par with Cole in terms of production and age and they did pretty well in the next seasons.



Note, the age of the players was calculated from the 1st February, the year of the Super Bowl.

As you can see, on an average basis these players were 29.7 years old when they posted 4.3 sacks in their bad season, which equals 0.31 as far as sacks/games started goes. These guys then went to start 45 games with 31.4 sacks on an average base Ė ths equates to 10,9 sacks over the course of a 16 game season.

If we look at the year-by-year analysis, we can see a clear trend.



This basically means, 2 very good years followed the bad seasons and then 2 average ones, which indicates a decline in production.
If we expand the ranges (sack numbers in the bad season, age, games started) a bit, then there are more than just these five comparable players.






The numbers clearly show what seemed to be somewhat obvious, in case the sample size is slightly bigger, the average age is smaller the trend is more flat indicating a slower decline in production.

After going through this, are you more comfortable with Cole starting and performing better What do you think how many times will he bring the QB to the ground?


***UPDATE***


I was pretty confident Cole could have a smooth transition to the 34 at the time of the announcement but in order I can have a clear picture on his play I decided to rewatch his snaps and track his performance throughout the season. I thought I would share it with you guys and will update the OP on a weekly basis. At the end of the day I hope he will have a successful season and help the team reach the playoffs...

I tracked the downs, the alignment and the plays with some comments while watching the game. I checked how many times he dropped back into coverage etc. Since the defensive line has played in so many formations, it was hard to tag it as a 3, 4, 5 man front. Sometimes the d-line consisted of 2 down lineman with a stand up rusher at the end so it was hard to call it a 3 man DL. There were plays were Barwin and Cole both rushed the passer from the same side next to each other from a stand up position. So I decided to track how many times Cole was in a clear 3-4 OLB position and did not differentiate the rest.

By my count, Cole played 54 snaps not taking the penalties into accunt. This article from BGN states he was playing in 62, but I guess the snaps with the penalties should be accountable for the difference.

WEEK1-2

Stats

  • Snaps: 118
  • 34 OLB snaps: 42.37% (50 of 118)
  • Drops into coverage: 12.71% (15 of 118)
  • Catches allowes: 1
  • TKL: 8
  • FF: 2
  • TFL:1
  • QBH: 5
  • HUR: 2

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Last edited by furti on Thu Oct 03, 2013 2:05 pm; edited 2 times in total
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AZ_Eaglesfan


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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 3:48 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

All those stats are great, and I think that if Trent was in a 4-3 defense this year that he would absolutely get 10+ sacks, but as a 3-4 OLB I don't see Cole getting more then 6-7 sacks. He isn't athletic enough to play OLB at this stage in his career, and he is clearly much more comfortable rushing the passer with his hand in the ground. I love Trent and he has been great for us his entire career, but I just don't think he will perform well in the new scheme.
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EaglesFan5-36-81


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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 3:58 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I realize that it wasn't the initial concept of the thread but since you brought it up, Cole was never going to get traded because the cap ramifications would make it idiotic to do so for anything less than a 2nd rounder.

Can Cole make the conversion, maybe, it certainly earlier would have been better for him if it were earlier in his career, but I'm certainly intruigued. Under McDermott he dropped about the same as he would at the Predator spot (about 5% of the time IIRC) and he did stand up on occasion and rush from linebacker spots. I remember one sack against Carolina where he came from the MIKE spot.
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HyponGrey


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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 4:02 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

He'll be playing out of the nickel most of the time, and on the weak side he'll only have to worry about rushing anyway. He'll be fine. I'm thinking it'll be a very Aldon Smith like transition process. Anybody got the stats on how well rushers from a Wide 9 transition to a 34? If we can limit that stat to from weakside Wide 9 to a Labeau 34 WOLB we're in business.
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furti


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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 4:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

EaglesFan5-36-81 wrote:
I realize that it wasn't the initial concept of the thread but since you brought it up, Cole was never going to get traded because the cap ramifications would make it idiotic to do so for anything less than a 2nd rounder.

Can Cole make the conversion, maybe, it certainly earlier would have been better for him if it were earlier in his career, but I'm certainly intruigued. Under McDermott he dropped about the same as he would at the Predator spot (about 5% of the time IIRC) and he did stand up on occasion and rush from linebacker spots. I remember one sack against Carolina where he came from the MIKE spot.


I remember that as well, there were times both Babin and Cole lining up as ilb-s. Sheil Kapadia mentioned a 3-3-5 subpackage which could be similar to that.
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Hockey5djh


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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 4:25 pm    Post subject: Re: Will the Hunter hunt again? Reply with quote

furti wrote:
Everything is based on only numbers (via NFL.com), scheme changes, injuries, coaching staff changes are not taken into account.

I feel different.

He has some obstacles this year. New coaching staff, new scheme Ė where he is not supposed to be an ideal fit even though we still donít know what exactly Davis and Kelly are going to run.

After going through this, are you more comfortable with Cole starting and performing better What do you think how many times will he bring the QB to the ground?


Here's my dilemma, which you conveniently built into your own OP.

You're basing these "regression" numbers and his ability to bounce back based primarily on Age and Games played with a similar background in Sacks per game (S/G). While I have no doubt if left in the same situation he could bounce back I have no idea how his transition to the 3-4 will do, regardless of Age, Games Played, or Previous S/G statistics.

But.....

HyponGrey wrote:
He'll be playing out of the nickel most of the time, and on the weak side he'll only have to worry about rushing anyway. He'll be fine. I'm thinking it'll be a very Aldon Smith like transition process. Anybody got the stats on how well rushers from a Wide 9 transition to a 34? If we can limit that stat to from weakside Wide 9 to a Labeau 34 WOLB we're in business.


Now if you could find stats as Hypon suggests we would have a completely different arguement. These stats could also be combined with your previous findings and we would get a very specific set of numbers to compare Cole to (albeit probably a very small sample size)
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JayAp07


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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 4:26 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Hopefully whenever he is on the field he only rushes the passer. Or else the d is going down the same road as the past 2 seasons by not utilizing the players correctly.
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furti


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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 4:37 pm    Post subject: Re: Will the Hunter hunt again? Reply with quote

Hockey5djh wrote:
furti wrote:
Everything is based on only numbers (via NFL.com), scheme changes, injuries, coaching staff changes are not taken into account.

I feel different.

He has some obstacles this year. New coaching staff, new scheme Ė where he is not supposed to be an ideal fit even though we still donít know what exactly Davis and Kelly are going to run.

After going through this, are you more comfortable with Cole starting and performing better What do you think how many times will he bring the QB to the ground?


Here's my dilemma, which you conveniently built into your own OP.

You're basing these "regression" numbers and his ability to bounce back based primarily on Age and Games played with a similar background in Sacks per game (S/G). While I have no doubt if left in the same situation he could bounce back I have no idea how his transition to the 3-4 will do, regardless of Age, Games Played, or Previous S/G statistics.

But.....

HyponGrey wrote:
He'll be playing out of the nickel most of the time, and on the weak side he'll only have to worry about rushing anyway. He'll be fine. I'm thinking it'll be a very Aldon Smith like transition process. Anybody got the stats on how well rushers from a Wide 9 transition to a 34? If we can limit that stat to from weakside Wide 9 to a Labeau 34 WOLB we're in business.


Now if you could find stats as Hypon suggests we would have a completely different arguement. These stats could also be combined with your previous findings and we would get a very specific set of numbers to compare Cole to (albeit probably a very small sample size)


You must have missed that. The data is just for highlighting there is a way back to success. Cole needs to prove he still has it and repeat it.

Quote:

Everything is based on only numbers (via NFL.com), scheme changes, injuries, coaching staff changes are not taken into account.None of this wants to prove anything, since the performances of the players can not be projected by simple statistics, this is only for fun and to inject some optimism to the posters hanging around here who donít feel Cole can contribute

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Hockey5djh


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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 4:49 pm    Post subject: Re: Will the Hunter hunt again? Reply with quote

furti wrote:
You must have missed that. The data is just for highlighting there is a way back to success. Cole needs to prove he still has it and repeat it.

Quote:

Everything is based on only numbers (via NFL.com), scheme changes, injuries, coaching staff changes are not taken into account.None of this wants to prove anything, since the performances of the players can not be projected by simple statistics, this is only for fun and to inject some optimism to the posters hanging around here who donít feel Cole can contribute


I may have Laughing Laughing Laughing

I've always been optimistic because there are Players out there like Aldon Smith who are praised for their pass rushing game despite the fact that they are one dimensional players. If Cole can simplify his game and play "get to the QB" on 90+% of the downs I don't see any reason why he can't have some success this upcoming season (dispite the fish out of water comments from the local newspaper).
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stevec0008


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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 4:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I feel like he can contribute because he is a semi-versitale player. While he is a great pass rusher, we have all pointed out here before that he is one of the best run stopping DE in the NFL. He is smart and knows how to adapt and he has time to adapt to the new scheme. The only reason I don't think he'll have 8+ sacks is because how we seem to be decently deep at the position.
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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 5:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Going with the 5-8 option.
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furti


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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 5:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Just found this nugget, didn't know that.

Quote:
He was a running back and outside linebacker in high school, then began his college days at Cincinnati as a 225-pound nose tackle before switching to defensive end for his final two seasons.

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Eagles_808


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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 5:20 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I want to see him succeed, but I fear he may be slowing down. Couple that with the scheme change, and I don't see him totaling more that 5-6 sacks in 2013. Just a hunch, which I would love to be proved wrong about.
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Nabbs4u


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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 6:10 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Went 9-12 assuming injury of course does not play a factor. Like in the other thread where I was discussing Coles abilities to adapt, I don't think it will be as bad as many are making it out to be. Especially if as Hockey described Cole is utilized much like the one demensional Aldon Smith.
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McNabbMcFadden


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PostPosted: Wed May 22, 2013 6:29 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

6-9 sacks IMO
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