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Texas_OutLaw7


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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2013 9:55 pm    Post subject: Draft Myths and Nuggets Reply with quote

http://www.bloggingtheboys.com/2013/5/14/4329548/boom-or-bust-which-teams-like-to-draft-players-from-non-bcs-divisions

Excellent. Excellent. Article. I recommend a full read.

1. Jerry Jones loves to draft players out of his Alma mater, Arkansas.

Myth

Quote:
It seems that every time there's a highly rated prospect out of Arkansas, that player is automatically associated with the Cowboys.

Fact is, of the 200+ draft picks in Jerry Jones' tenure as Cowboys owner, only one draft pick, 2008's Felix Jones, was a Razorback. But it is also a fact that no amount of facts will shake a strong preconceived notion.


2. Dallas loves them some skill players. Best position ever.

Myth

Quote:

Only 20% of the Cowboys' total draft picks from 1992-2011 are offensive skill position players, the second lowest value in the league.

In the first three rounds of the draft from 1991-2011, the Cowboys spent only 16.1% of their draft picks on skill position players. At the time, this was the lowest value in the league.


[Read more about that Here (Click Me!).

3. A discussion of injured players vs this draft and it's lack of injuries.

4. Cowboys love Small School Prospects.

Fact!
Quote:

The first player to fit this definition was defensive tackle Jethro Pugh out of Elizabeth (N.C.) City State in the 1964 draft. Since then, the Cowboys have had great success looking for talent in out of the way places, and have compiled an impressive list of small school talent that includes Hall of Fame OT Rayfield Wright out of Fort Valley State, HoF OG Larry Allen out of Sonoma State and numerous Pro Bowlers.


There is some really good number crunching that goes on in the original like (refer to the top) but it culminates with a Cowboys/Raven comparison.

Quote:
With 38%, the Cowboys have the second highest percentage of players of non-BCS 6 draft picks among all teams, and the fourth highest percentage (24%) of players from non-BCS divisions. Per se, the high percentages are neither a good nor a bad thing. Other teams with high percentages like the Ravens, Packers and 49ers are normally considered good drafters, while some teams at the bottom of the scale also routinely receive good grades for their drafts.

But what these percentages are indicative of is a team's draft strategy: Are they more or less inclined to go after smaller school prospects or not. The percentage is also indicative of a team's risk tolerance or risk adversity. Teams like the Eagles seem to believe they'll increase their chances at draft success by drafting mostly from established schools. Teams like the Cowboys and Ravens seem to believe that the higher risk of taking a smaller school prospect can be outweighed by that prospects potential upside.


Again I reiterate this is a fantastic read and breakdown. I highly recommend taking 5 minutes to read the first article and taking 15 to read the second.
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Texas_OutLaw7


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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2013 10:06 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Expanding on the second article (because it merits is own discussion).

http://www.draftmetrics.com/files/Draft%20Tendencies.pdf

1. We have a preference towards Defense, but virtually even in drafting.
2. We have drafted the fewest number of QBs in 20 years.
3. We draft a lot of offensive linemen (bet that shocked a good number of you)
4. Our favorite conference is the SEC.
5. We have no real preference towards underclassmen.
6. We invest the most draft picks in DB. The second most in OL.
7. In terms of Premium Picks (1st 3 rounds) the position we favor the most is the OL.
8. Recently our drafts have shifted to have DB, then LB, then OL as the most prevalent drafted.
9. Recently, using Premium Picks, our preference is LBer then OL.
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Desperado82


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PostPosted: Fri May 17, 2013 10:13 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

We do love those linebackers.

Interesting stuff.
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Texas_OutLaw7


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PostPosted: Sat May 18, 2013 5:45 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I am stunned more of you don't like this.
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WizardHawk


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PostPosted: Sat May 18, 2013 5:59 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Texas_OutLaw7 wrote:
I am stunned more of you don't like this.


I like it, but I think it's rehash. Almost positive BTB did an article on this very thing last year.
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Desperado82


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PostPosted: Sat May 18, 2013 6:14 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

I was hoping for a Nugget I could sell for $5,000
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Dirk Gently


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PostPosted: Sat May 18, 2013 6:19 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

The problem is that it's a) factual and b) flies in the face of the narrative that most want to impose on this team.

So it's mostly met with an embarassed silence
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PincheJimmy


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PostPosted: Sat May 18, 2013 7:07 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Dirk Gently wrote:
The problem is that it's a) factual and b) flies in the face of the narrative that most want to impose on this team.

So it's mostly met with an embarassed silence


Funny, I was thinking the same thing, not a peep from those who says they do different Smile
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htfryar


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PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2013 9:02 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Posting this just so that T_O7 doesn't get his e-feelings hurt. Wouldn't want him to think I didn't read his post. Laughing
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Northland


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PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2013 9:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Texas_OutLaw7 wrote:
Expanding on the second article (because it merits is own discussion).

http://www.draftmetrics.com/files/Draft%20Tendencies.pdf

1. We have a preference towards Defense, but virtually even in drafting.
2. We have drafted the fewest number of QBs in 20 years.
3. We draft a lot of offensive linemen (bet that shocked a good number of you)
4. Our favorite conference is the SEC.
5. We have no real preference towards underclassmen.
6. We invest the most draft picks in DB. The second most in OL.
7. In terms of Premium Picks (1st 3 rounds) the position we favor the most is the OL.
8. Recently our drafts have shifted to have DB, then LB, then OL as the most prevalent drafted.
9. Recently, using Premium Picks, our preference is LBer then OL.


Great article. Love the discussion. I looked back at our drafts over the 1994-2013 timeframe to zero in on what I think has been the source of the most heated debate on our forum, the offensive line.
We can't say that we ignore the offensive line in drafting. By my count we have invested 30 choices on the OL in this period and 14 of them have been premium or third round picks or higher. The challenge is that by my count we only have landed six quality starters out of all of these picks:
Larry Allen, HOF round 2 1994
Flozell Adams round 2 1998
Andre Gurode round 2 2002
Doug Free round 4 2004 - even though he has declined he was a quality starter.
Tyron Smith - round 1, 2011
Travis Frederick - round 1, 2013 - I know he has not played a down but I will give him the benefit of the doubt.
During this period we did have players drafted who started for us but their contributions were not solid. This includes Solomon Page, Matt Lehr, Kelvin Garmon, Tyson Walter, and Al Johnson.

The troubling period for the OL was from 2005-2010. Seven OL drafted, only 2 in the third round, the other 5 being round 4-7. We had Petiti, McQuistan (sorry Plan), Whitley, Free, Marten, Brewster, Young. We dipped our toes into the FA Market during this time as well and perhaps viewed investing premium picks in the OL as an afterthought.

With the drafting of Smith and Frederick I hope we are entering a new era of draft philosophy with the Cowboys. I am hoping this is Garrett's impact and Jerry realizing the importance of the position. We saw what the 5 year black hole of 2005-2010 resulted in.

Other observations. The 2005 draft was a killer. Ware, Spears, Burnett, Barber, Canty, and Ratliff. What a haul. 2006-2009 have yielded very little in terms of players still on the roster contributing and goes a long way to explaining our mediocrity.

The 2010-2013 drafts have represented marked improvement. Realistically how many solid contributors can a team expect to get in any given draft? If three is considered solid or above average we are doing well in this time period.
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Desperado82


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PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2013 10:59 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

Northland wrote:
Other observations. The 2005 draft was a killer. Ware, Spears, Burnett, Barber, Canty, and Ratliff. What a haul. 2006-2009 have yielded very little in terms of players still on the roster contributing and goes a long way to explaining our mediocrity.

The 2010-2013 drafts have represented marked improvement. Realistically how many solid contributors can a team expect to get in any given draft? If three is considered solid or above average we are doing well in this time period.


Basically, Wade Phillips killed us with poor drafts.
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Matts4313


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PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2013 11:09 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

WizardHawk wrote:
Texas_OutLaw7 wrote:
I am stunned more of you don't like this.


I like it, but I think it's rehash. Almost positive BTB did an article on this very thing last year.


Its definitely a rehash. Last years was posted ~2-3 times on here. They probably just update the information every year and resubmit.
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cowboyfanin2890


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PostPosted: Sun May 19, 2013 1:43 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Yes when we look at the last 30 years you will get a skewed view of how we have been drafting the past 10-15. O-line has not been on the priority list until the last 3 years and with 5 starting o-lineman it needs to be looked at every year when you have what amounts to strike breaking scabs as 4 of your 5 starters. I also think if we snip the last 10 years out of the time frame that is being discussed, we will see that it is a totally different result.

We can come to 1 of 2 conclusions when people say that o-line has been a priority the last 30 years. Either, 1 it has not been a priority or 2, they have no ability the past 10-15 years to gauge o-line talent(Smith and hopefully Fredrick are examples that it will get better). I think like a lot of other people on this forum, we are getting better at drafting.
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Texas_OutLaw7


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PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2013 11:53 am    Post subject: Reply with quote

I really wish some people would stop looking at everything through the prism of right and wrong.

The intent of this wasn't a flame war between the two factions that have sprung up here, but instead an attempt to discuss trends. Since that is all it is, trends. Statistically it gives some insight to probability and possibilities but does not accurately forecast the future.

There are both positive and negative things to derive from this. Focusing on either seems narrow-minded.
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Northland


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PostPosted: Mon May 20, 2013 12:11 pm    Post subject: Reply with quote

Desperado82 wrote:
Northland wrote:
Other observations. The 2005 draft was a killer. Ware, Spears, Burnett, Barber, Canty, and Ratliff. What a haul. 2006-2009 have yielded very little in terms of players still on the roster contributing and goes a long way to explaining our mediocrity.

The 2010-2013 drafts have represented marked improvement. Realistically how many solid contributors can a team expect to get in any given draft? If three is considered solid or above average we are doing well in this time period.


Basically, Wade Phillips killed us with poor drafts.


Wade had impact/influence no doubt but Jerry pulled the trigger. Now before I am attacked for blindly bashing Jerry let me reiterate a position I have stated many times before. It is my belief that the buck stops with Jerry. He is the ultimate decision maker despite the input from scouts and coaches. So for example while I will blame him for the 2009 debacle, I will also applaud him for the recent upswing in our drafting fortunes. You can't blame him solely for bad and not praise him for good. Can't have it both ways.
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